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Last year Alabama outgained Auburn 412-170 in a 36-0 win ending a 6 game losing streak in the Iron Bowl. It was the most lopsided Iron Bowl since ‘62 (38-0) Auburn lost 3 fumbles and Tuberville resigned following the loss. Over the last 8 years, (including 6 wins) the Tigers have been outgained by the Crismon Tide by 268 total yards. Auburn had the benefit of a bye last week, but Bama is off an easy 45-0 win over FCS Chattanooga in which super running back Mark Ingram (1,399 yards, 6.8 yards per carry) rushed for 102 yards and 2 TD’s in little more than 1Q and rested along with many of the other starters as the Tide led 35-0 at the half. Auburn running back Tate has 1,209 yards (5.4 ypc) in a battle of 2 of the best running backs in the SEC. Bama’s #3 defense is only allowing 70.4 rushing yards per game (2.4) while Auburn’s #44 defense is allowing 170 rushing yards per game (4.4). Auburn is particularly thin at linebacker and defensive back, which has caused problems late in games. Bama has the SEC Title game on deck and might be in look ahead mode, so the Tigers should keep it relatively close.

PHIL’S FORECAST : ALABAMA 30 AUBURN 20

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In the last two years vs TCU,  Lobo quarterback Donovan Porterie has been KO’d and TCU has won by a 63-3 margin with an average yard edge of 356-152. In 4 MWC meetings, TCU has dominated winning by an average of 35-13. After opening last season vs New Mexico (earliest conference opener ever), The Horned Frogs and Lobos signed a contract to play each other in season finales. The Frogs were slow out of the gate vs Wyoming last week. They allowed the Pokes to hang around until the 2^nd quarter before scoring 35 unanswered points in a 45-10 win. TCU finished with a 523-178 yard edge but did have 4 turnovers. Running back Joseph Turner (688 yards, 5.3 ypc) was banged up early and Matthew Tucker (605 yards, 6.5 ypc) finished with a career high 134 yards on the ground. New Mexico comes in flying high off their 1st win of the season. After knocking 2 FG’s and a PAT off the upright 2 weeks ago, Aho nailed 2 4^th quarter FG’s including the game-winning 27 yarder with :12 left. New Mexico almost tripled their rush average putting up 270 yards (7.7 ypc) including 130 in the 4^th quarter and finished with a 467-370 total yard edge. TCU has won their last four home finales by an average of 45-15. The Frogs are playing for the outright MWC Title and a BCS berth and while the Lobos have finally found their confidence, they will be quickly struck down by the high flying Frogs.

PHIL’S FORECAST : TCU 58 NEW MEXICO 3

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Boise St is 9-0 with an average margin of victory of 31 points per game. However, the last two games have been decided by one score (2 and 7 points) after the previous 7 were decided by 38.5 points per game (closest game being a 31 point decision). These two are the lone unbeatens in the WAC. Last time here (2007), these two combined for 1,266 yards and 136 points in 4 OT’s in a 69-67 Bronco victory which set the record for most points in an NCAA IA game since 1937 when official record keeping began. Since October, Nevada has rushed for 3,565 yards (446 yards per game) with 43 TD while racking up 4,785 total yards (598 yards per game) and last week became the 1st team in NCAA history to have 3 players top 1,000 yards rushing in 1 season (Taua 1,185 yards, 8.0 ypc; Kaepernick 1,129, 8.6; Lippincott 1,028, 7.7)! On the flip side, Boise is #1 in the WAC in scoring defense (17.3 points per game), total defense (302 yards per game) and pass defense (187 yards per game). The Broncos are also #9 in the NCAA in total offense (449 yards per game) and lead the WAC in scoring offense (44.4 points per game) led by the NCAA’s most efficient passer QB Kellen Moore who is averaging 253 yards per game (66%) with a 33-3 ratio. He’s thrown at least 3 TD passes in six of his last seven and will look to exploit Nevada’s #119 NCAA rated pass defense (286 yards per game) with wide receiver’s Austin Pettis (62 receptions, 13.7 ypc) and Titus Young (60 receptions, 13.5 ypc). This is Nevada’s season finale and the Pack is playing its 3rd away game in 4 weeks while this is the Broncos’ final “true” hurdle in keeping its BCS hopes alive with New Mexico St on deck.

PHIL’S FORECAST : BOISE ST 44 NEVADA 30

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This year will be the 102nd meeting of “The Backyard Brawl” (every year since 1943). Pitt spoiled #2 West Virginia’s National Title hopes here in 2007, which has been called the biggest upset in Pitt and arguably Big East history 13-9. Last year, Pittsburgh trailed 15-7 in the 4^th quarter and scored twice, including a 1 yard TD run with :52 left. The Mountaineers gave #5 Cincinnati a scare up 14-7 before losing 24-21 as both quarterback Jarrett Brown and running back Noel Devine were playing thru ankle injuries. Brown is averaging 185 yards per game (65%) with a 12-8 ratio and running back Devine is averaging 110 rush yards per game (5.7 yards per carry, 51 ypg 3.6 ypc, last three). The defense is allowing 121 rush yards per game (3.1 ypc) but 209 rush yards per game (5.7 ypc) the last two weeks to Louisville and Cincinnati. Pittsburgh has their Big East showdown on deck against Cincinnati and are off a bye after a 27-22 win over Notre Dame 2 weeks ago. Pittsburgh led 27-9 with 12:44 left and forced a fumble to seal the victory. Quarterback Bill Stull is averaging 212 yards per game (66%) with an 18-4 ratio and running back Dion Lewis is averaging 129 rush yards per game (5.8 ypc). The Panther defense leads the NCAA with 41 sacks and allows just 101 rush yards per game (3.1 ypc) including 129 vs Navy, 106 Connecticut, 38 Rutgers, and 66 Notre Dame. Pitt has the offense (#23-46) and defense (#19-27) edges while the special teams edge goes to West Virginia (#39-66). While it is tough to play at night in Morgantown, look for Pittsburgh to win their 3rd straight against the Mountaineers for the 1st time since ‘80-’82.

PHIL’S FORECAST : PITTSBURGH 26 W VIRGINIA 23

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Virginia Tech is 9-1 in the series. Last year the Hokies allowed only 249 yards but needed an interception in the end zone with 2:15 left to secure the win. Virginia had the dazzling debut of cornerback Vic Hall at QB. Hall ran for 109 yards and 2 long TD’s as a surprise starter. Virginia Tech has won their last two trips here by an average of 42-17. Virginia is ranked #118 in the NCAA in total offense and are being outscored 25-16 vs ACC foes and now face our #12 defense. Quarterback Jameel Sewell is averaging 173 yards per game passing (54%) with a 7-7 ratio. Meanwhile Tech quarterback Tyrod Taylor is averaging 174 yards per game passing (56%) with a 13-3 ratio and has rushed for 310 yards (3.3 ypc). Running back Ryan Williams is #1 in the ACC with 1,355 rush yards (5.6 ypc). With a win here and in their bowl game, VT will have its 6th straight 10-win season while Virginia head coach Al Groh could be coaching in his last game as the Cavaliers will likely finish the season 3-9.

PHIL’S FORECAST : VIRGINIA TECH 23 VIRGINIA 13

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Arkansas is just 5-10 in the series but has two straight upsets beating #1 LSU 50-48 in 3 OT’s here in 2007 and last year trailed 30-14 at home but got a 24 yard TD pass with :21 left to win 31-30. LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson (179 yards per game, 61.5%, 14-5 ratio) made his first career start last year vs Arkansas. LSU is off a 25-23 loss to Ole Miss where they were outgained 426-290. LSU had a chance to kick a game winning Field Goal at the end but mismanaged the clock and ran out of time. LSU was held to 40 rush yards (1.5 ypc) but was down to their 3rd string running back with Charles Scott (542 yards, 4.7 ypc) and Keiland Williams (368 yards, 5.3 ypc) injured. Scott is out for this game and Williams is as well after breaking his ankle. Arkansas has their own injury problems as their running back Michael Smith is out for the year with a hamstring injury. Arkansas is off a 42-21 win over Mississippi St but only had a 396-376 yard edge. Quarterback Ryan Mallett became the first 3,000-yard passer in school history (averaging 291 yards per game, 59%, 28-6 ratio). LSU is 8-2 since 1999 in home finales. LSU has a large edge on defense (#13-52) and special teams (#16-62) but Ark has a large edge on offense (#6-60). LSU is #24 in our pass defense rankings allowing 189 pass yards per game (55%) with a 10-12 ratio but now face the SEC’s top passing team. LSU has been outgained on the year by an average of 308-322 but has 8 wins while Arkansas has outgained opponents by an average of 445-409 but only has 7 wins. The Tigers have won 35 of 36 Saturday night games at home (only loss was this year to Florida), but this one will probably come down to the wire.

PHIL’S FORECAST : ARKANSAS 27 LSU 26

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In their only other meeting (280 miles apart) USF fell to #9 Miami in ‘05, 27-7. Only 2 non-conference BCS teams have visited Tampa. USF won both (37-10 vs North Carolina, ‘07; 37-34 vs Kansas, ‘08). Last week, the Bulls rebounded from their shutout loss 2 weeks ago for a 34-22 win over Louisville. USF overcame missed opportunities early (led only 17-16 at halftime) and recorded 538 total yards in the win. QB BJ Daniels has accounted for 58% of the offense and had his 4th 100 yard rush game and has an 11-8 ratio. Daniels gave Florida St fits in their upset in Tallahassee, but stop the redshirt freshman QB and the Bulls stall. Last week #17 Miami defeated Duke 34-16. They overcame a 16-10 deficit to score the final 21 points in the 4^th quarter. Quarterback Harris played with injured thumb and had his arm in a sling after the game but it turned out to be just a joke. Harris is averaging 273 yards per game (60%) with a 21-17 ratio. The defense has been banged up thru the year but linebacker Sean Spence returned to action last week. Head coach Jim Leavitt is 63-17 at home and this is a huge game for Bull fans, but they have been exposed in recent years as a better prey than predator. Miami has offense (#13-77) and defense (#22-40).

PHIL’S FORECAST : MIAMI 34 USF 24

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These two are just 26 miles apart. The Wolfpack are 9-4 in home finales and North Carolina has now lost back-to-back games in the series including last year where the #25 Tar Heels were beaten soundly, committing 6 turnovers as NC St won 41-10 with a 263 yard edge. NC St quarterback Russell Wilson is considering pursuing a pro baseball career, which would likely make this his last game. On the season, he is averaging 252 yards per game passing (58%) with a 27-11 ratio. NC St does have the offensive edge (#36-88), but now faces our #8 defense, which has forced 10 turnovers and scored 4 TD’s the last two weeks. Last week the Tar Heel defense forced 6 turnovers which led to 24 points. Quarterback TJ Yates is averaging 152 yards per game (60%) with a 10-13 ratio. A 9-win season would be Carolina’s most since ’97 when the team went 11-1 under Mack Brown. The Tar Heels are looking to move up for the league’s upper-tier bowls while NC St would love to spoil their rivals season on what could be Wilson’s final game.

PHIL’S FORECAST : NC STATE 24 N CAROLINA 23