| Daily Blog • Thursday, November 26th |
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Happy Thanksgiving and welcome to my Thursday blog. Once again I am picking surprise players who I expect to have a good week and I have selected some pretty successful players recently with my picks going 61-21-6 (71%) the last 9 weeks. Last week was particularly successful as my picks went 11-4-2 and here are the results from week 12.
My Quarterback selections from last week:
Colt Mccoy, texas, jacory Harris, Miami Fl,
colin kaepernick, nevada and ryan mallett, arkansas
Colt McCoy, Texas-McCoy hit 32 of 41 (78%) for 396 yards with 4 TD’s and 0 int in the Longhorns’ 51-20 win over Kansas on Senior Day. The 4 TD’s were a season-high for McCoy and I had called for McCoy to have his first 300-yard passing game in Big 12 play this season and he did just that! The 396 yards were also the most passing yards for a Jayhawk opponent this year. BIG WIN
Jacory Harris, Miami FL-Harris hit 25 of 43 (58.1%) for 348 yards with 2 TD’s and 1 int in the 34-16 win over Duke. The 348 yards were the most Harris has had since the opener against Florida St and the most yards allowed by Duke this season. The Blue Devils coming into the game were allowing just 187 pass ypg. WIN
Colin Kaepernick, Nevada - Kaepernick hit 5 of 11 (45.5%) for 96 yards with 2 TD’s and 0 int in the 63-20 win over New Mexico St. Kaepernick also ran for 114 yards (12.7) with a TD. The Kaepernick led-offense is averaging 445.5 ypg rushing, 598.1 ypg total offense and 51.6 ppg since their 0-3 start! Since the yardage totals are below his season averages, but he did have the 3 TD’s, I will count this as a PUSH.
Ryan Mallett, Arkansas - Mallett hit 18 of 34 (52.9%) for 313 yards with 5 TD’s and 2 interceptions in the 42-21 win over Mississippi St. Mallett set some milestones in the game as he became the first Arkansas QB ever to throw for more than 3,000 yards in a single season and the 28 TD’s are also an Arkansas record! WIN
Top Honorable Mention performance:
Sean Canfield, Oregon St - Canfield hit 22 of 29 (75.9%) for 231 yards with 2 TD’s and 1 int in the 42-10 win over Washington St. Canfield led the Beavers to a season-high 567 yards of total offense. Canfield has completed 70.3% of his passes this season!
No Brainer:
Case Keenum, Houston - Keenum hit 29 of 39 (74.4%) for 405 yards with 5 TD’s and 0 int in the 55-14 win over Memphis. While Keenum’s numbers were great, they could have been even better had he not been pulled in the second half for backup Cotton Turner who threw for 173 yards and a TD in mop-up duty. Keenum has now thrown for 36 TD’s this season.
My Running Back selections from last week:
Dajuane collins, toledo, donald buckram, utep,
cj spiller, clemson, and montario hardesty, tennessee
DaJuane Collins, Toledo-Collins ran for 144 yards (7.2) with two TD’s in the 47-21 win over Eastern Michigan. Collins’ 2 TD’s and 20 carries tied-season highs as the Rockets ran for a season-high 330 yards. Collins now needs just 83 yards rushing this week against arch-rival Bowling Green to reach 1,000 yards on the season. WIN
Donald Buckram, UTEP - Buckram ran for 147 yards (4.3) with 3 TD’s in the disappointing 30-29 loss to Rice. With Fresno’s Ryan Mathews sitting out last week’s game with a concussion, Buckram now leads the NCAA with 1,569 yards (Mathews has 1,491) rushing this season with just one game to go. WIN
CJ Spiller, Clemson - Spiller ran for just 58 yards (3.1) with a TD in the 34-21 win over Virginia. Spiller also caught 5 passes for 39 yards and had 114 all-purpose yards. Spiller, however, did set the ACC’s single-season all-purpose yardage mark, surpassing the 2,059 mark of Virginia’s Thomas Jones in 1999. Loss
Montario Hardesty, Tennessee - Hardesty ran for a season-high 171 yards (5.3) with a TD in the 31-16 win over Vanderbilt. Hardesty also had a season-high 32 carries as he passed the 1,000-yard mark on the season. WIN
Top Honorable Mention Performances:
Roy Helu, Nebraska - Helu ran for 95 yards (3.7) with 1 TD in the 17-3 win over Kansas St. Helu passed the 1,000-yard mark for the season and the Huskers clinched a spot in the Big 12 Championship game.
Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon St - Rodgers ran for 165 yards (6.9) with 2 TD’s in the 42-10 win over Washington St. Rodgers now has 1,313 yards on the year with 19 TD’s as he and the Beavers prepare for their showdown against in-state rival Oregon with a spot in the Rose Bowl on the line.
My Wide Receiver Selections from last week:
Michael floyd/golden tate, notre dame, austin pettis, boise st
and danario alexander, missouri
Michael Floyd/Golden Tate, Notre Dame-This duo combined for 17 receptions and 227 yards with 2 TD’s in the 33-30 loss to Connecticut in 2 OT. Tate set school records for catches in a season (83) and receiving yardage (1,295) with a 39-yard catch in the first quarter that helped set up Notre Dame’s first score and Michael Floyd had his third straight 100-yard game since coming back from a broken collarbone. WIN
Austin Pettis, Boise St - Pettis had 4 receptions for 69 yards (17.25) with 0 TD’s in the 52-21 win over Utah St. Pettis’ numbers were low as Boise rushed for a season-high 323 yards and QB Kellen Moore completed just 51.7% (season-low) of his passes. Loss
Danario Alexander, Missouri- Alexander had 11 receptions for 173 yards (15.7) with a 1 TD in the 34-24 win over Iowa St. It was Alexander’s third-straight game with double-digit receptions and he now has 92 receptions for 1,411 yards (15.3) and 12 TD’s on the season. WIN
Top Honorable Mention Performances:
Joe Adams, Arkansas - Adams had just one reception in the 42-21 win over Mississippi St. However, that one catch went for 39 yards and a TD. I really went out on a limb with Adams as Arkansas has so many playmakers at WR and also have one of the best receiving TE’s in the nation. Adams did suffer a mild stroke midseason that forced him to miss three games, but still is the Hog’s #3 receiver.
Jordan Shipley, Texas - Shipley had 10 receptions for 108 yards (10.8) with a TD in the 51-20 win over Kansas. Shipley who is one of the leading contenders for the Biletnikoff Award had his 6th 100-yd receiving game and 4th double-digit receiving game this year.
My Defenses from last week:
USF, oregon st, ucla, clemson and florida st
USF vs Louisville-The Bulls gave up 313 total yards in their 34-22 victory. The 313 yards allowed was the best performance in conference play this season. USF also allowed just 81 yards rushing as their offense was the story of the game gaining 538 yards. Since they allowed 22 points to a struggling Louisville offense, but a conference low 313 yards, I will count it as a Push.
Oregon St vs Washington St-The Beavers’ defense had the best showing of the season as they held the Cougars to just 192 total yards and 10 points. Oregon St’s defense coming into the game ranked in the lower half of the Pac-10 giving up 355 ypg and 23.4 ppg. My computer predicted they would hold the Cougars to 259 total yards and 12 points, and the Beaver’s exceeded my expectations. WIN
UCLA vs Arizona St-The Bruins gave up 315 yards in their 23-13 win over the Sun Devils. The story of the game was the Bruins forcing SIX turnovers including a fumble that was picked up LB Akeem Ayers and returned for a TD. The Bruins also had four sacks. WIN
Clemson vs Virginia-The Tigers defense gave up 273 yards in their 34-21 win over Virginia. After giving up 21 points and 233 yards in the first half, the Tigers defense clamped down and forced four 3 and outs in the second half along with 0 points and just 40 yards. Clemson also limited Virginia to just 78 yards rushing. Anytime you hold a conference opponent to 273 yards is a good day and despite the 21 points, this should be a WIN.
Florida St vs Maryland-The Seminoles gave up 410 yards in the 29-26 win over Maryland. This was longtime DC Mickey Andrews’ last home game, and the Seminoles were playing very well early and had a 233-129 yard edge at the half. However, leading 14-6 late in the first half, the Seminole offense gave up a 82 yard interception return to the FSU 7 which changed the entire complexion of the game and afterwards Maryland scored to make it 14-13. Loss
Top Honorable Mention Performances:
Nebraska vs Kansas St-The Huskers held Kansas St to just 293 yards in their 17-3 win vs the Wildcats. Kansas St came into the game averaging 354.5 ypg and 24.8 ppg as the three points scored by the Wildcats were a season-low.
Texas vs Kansas-The Longhorns gave up 303 yards in their 51-20 win over Kansas. The 303 yards allowed were the most the Longhorns had given up since the Oklahoma game. However, the Jayhawks did get a 98 yard KR TD to get their 20-point total.
Mississippi vs LSU - While Mississippi held LSU to 290 yards in their 25-23 win, these numbers were deceiving. LSU got a blocked FG return for a TD. Also LSU scored a TD with 1:17 left (2 pt conversion failed), recovered an onside kick and on 4th & 26 got a Hail Mary first down pass to the 6 with :01 left. The Rebels did hold the Tigers to just 40 yards rushing.
No Brainers:
TCU vs Wyoming-The Horned Frogs dominated as they held Wyoming to just 178 yards in their 45-10 win. Wyoming had only 5 first downs and the Cowboys’ only TD of the game came on a 98-yard fumble return.
Florida vs Florida International-The Gators were in control from start to finish as expected giving up just 189 yards in their 62-3 win over the Golden Panthers. The Gators on the season reclaimed the top spot from Texas in the NCAA giving up just 230 total ypg including 91 rush ypg!
Last Week’s Upset of the Week:
San Jose St over Hawaii
San Jose St head coach Dick Tomey is retiring at the end of the year and I expected the Spartans to rally and pull off the upset but they came up just short. San Jose St had many opportunities to win the game but eventually fell 17-10 in OT. Back-up QB Kyle Reed came off the bench and scored the Spartans’ lone touchdown but threw three straight incompletions in OT. San Jose St had four turnovers including a fumble in Warriors’ territory with less than a minute remaining. Loss
Now on to this week’s selections.
QUARTERBACKS:
My QB’s of the Week (5 selections): Kellen Moore, Boise St, Colt McCoy, Texas, Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan, Jake Locker, Washington and Kyle Reed, San Jose St
Kellen Moore, Boise St-This the Broncos’ last true opportunity to state their case for a BCS bid on national TV and also is the defacto WAC championship game as the red hot Wolf Pack actually lead the conference with a 7-0 record. Moore leads the NCAA in pass efficiency and now takes on a porous Nevada pass defense which is allowing 286 ypg (61%) with a 26-8 ratio which is #119 in the NCAA.
Colt McCoy, Texas-After struggling his first 2 seasons vs the rival Aggies McCoy hit 23-28 for 311 yds and accounted for 4 TD’s in last year’s Longhorns rout. This year McCoy gets a national Turkey Day platform vs a defense which has allowed 45 ppg and 511 ypg vs the 4 bowl eligible teams they’ve faced this year.
Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan - LeFevour is one of my favorites this year and he has produced each time I have selected him. He is averaging 230 pass ypg, completing 72% of his passes with an excellent 22-5 ratio and also leads the team in rushing with 626 yds (4.1) and 14 TD’s! Although Central has the MAC Title game on deck, this is a meeting of MAC West rivals and Central Michigan can clinch 10 wins with a victory here. This is LeFevour’s final home game and he will want to have a big showing one last time for his home crowd.
Jake Locker, Washington-Locker has had a decent year and currently ranks #2 in the Pac-10 in passing ypg (236) completing 57% of his passes with a 17-10 ratio. This week he takes on rival Washington St in the Apple Cup. WSU is #110 in my pass defense rankings allowing 283 pass ypg (68%) with a 20-9 ratio. After last year’s loss in 2 overtimes, Washington will want to go for the throat this year to ensure a win.
Kyle Reed, San Jose State - After starting the first two games of the season, Reed was supplanted by Jordan La Secla as the Spartans’ starter and saw only limited the action in three of the next seven games. However, last week against Hawaii, Reed was inserted back under center when La Secla threw two first-quarter interceptions and responded with a modest 14 of 22 for 131 yards performance while rushing for 23 yards on six carries. But his ability to help the Spartans move the ball gave HC Dick Tomey enough confidence to indicate Reed will likely get the starting nod against New Mexico St this week. Reed, a former Cal transfer (PS#18), will be playing in his final home game as a Spartan and Tomey will be coaching in his last home game as SJSU’s head coach. If given the opportunity, look for Reed to respond against a struggling Aggie defense which has allowed 533 ypg & 44.2 ppg over the last five games and to send himself & his head coach off the field in their final game at Spartan Stadium as winners.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Ricky Dobbs, Navy-Navy has already clinched their bowl bid, but still has a lot to play for this week in their long trip to Hawaii. Navy Head Coach Niumatalolo is from Hawaii and recruits there extensively, so he will want to have a good showing this week. Another plus is that Dobbs had last week off to rest his knee that he will have to have surgery on following the season. Dobbs leads the team in rushing with 797 yds (3.5) and 22 TD’s which is one away from tying the NCAA record for single season rush TD’s by a QB currently held by Florida’s Tim Tebow and Air Force’s Chance Harridge. Since missing most of 2 games midseason with the knee injury he has returned to post back-to-back 100+ yd rushing games and in his last game had 100 yards rushing and 5 rush TD’s. Hawaii is allowing 189 rush ypg (4.7) and allowed 352 yards (6.2) versus Louisiana Tech and 312 rush yards (6.4) versus Nevada the two strong running teams they have faced.
Stephen Garcia, South Carolina-You know Garcia has made progress this year as he has received some compliments from the Ole Ball Coach at times this season and currently is #2 in the SEC averaging 237 pass ypg (57%) with a 14-8 ratio. Garcia has had four 300+ yd passing games (all versus SEC foes) this year including 3 in the last 4 games. This week the Gamecocks take on rival Clemson and are playing their final home game needing a win to stop a 3 game losing streak and propel themselves into a better bowl game. Spurrier used to hate facing rival Florida St the week prior to the SEC Championship game when he was at Florida and this year he can take advantage of the fact that Clemson has the ACC Title game on deck plus SC had an extra week to prepare for this game while Clemson is playing their 7th straight game. For South Carolina to have a chance in this game, Garcia must produce and I think he’s capable.
Tim Tebow, Florida-It will be an emotional game for Tebow playing his last one in the Swamp vs arch-rival Florida State. Tebow hasn’t wowed the nation this year and is only averaging 177 pass ypg (65%) with a 14-4 ratio, but still leads the team with 706 rush yds (4.0) and 11 TD’s and will be remembered as one of the best players in Florida history. Although the Gators have the SEC Title game on deck versus Alabama, Tebow will want to have a big game as a thank you to all of his fans. Tebow’s biggest passing this year was 255 yards versus Arkansas this year and he’s been held below 200 yards passing in 7 games! In his last 2 games versus FSU, Tebow has rushed for 169 yds and 3 TD’s and completed 31 of 49 passes for 447 yds and 6 TD’s with no turnovers. FSU is #99 in my pass defense rankings allowing 241 ypg (59%) with a 23-13 ratio. Tebow should take advantage of that and a big day will ensure a 3rd straight trip to the Heisman Trophy Ceremony.
No Brainer:
Case Keenum, Houston - Keenum leads the NCAA in every major passing category except pass efficiency (5th). He has thrown for 4,599 yds (418 ypg) and is completing 70% with a 36-6 ratio. He has thrown at least 3 TD’s in each of his last 4 gms. This week he faces a very young Rice secondary that is #118 in my pass efficiency def ranking allowing 256 ypg (65%) with a 25-6 ratio. My projections show Houston with 463 pass yds & 55 points, the only question is how long Keenum will play in a possible blowout win.
RUNNING BACKS:
MY RB’s of the Week (6 Selections): Montario Hardesty, Tennessee, Mark Ingram, Alabama/Ben Tate, Auburn, DionLewis, Pitt, Dexter McCluster, Ole Miss and Alfred Morris, Florida Atlantic
Montario Hardesty, Tennessee - Hardesty has carried 225 times without a fumble this year for 1,127 yards (5.0) and 9 TD’s with four 100+ yd rushing games. Tennessee is only averaging 97 rush ypg (3.2) on the road but has faced Alabama, Mississippi and Florida in their SEC road games this year. This week they take on Kentucky which is allowing 179.3 rush ypg (4.6). This is an important game for bowl positioning, but Tennessee needs the win more to avoid a 6-6 finish that will place them in one of the last-chance bowls. UK already has 7 wins and has lost 24 games in a row to Tennessee for the longest series losing streak in the nation. Hardesty should have a big day in the final regular season game of his career.
Mark Ingram, Alabama/Ben Tate, Auburn-These 2 guys are going head-to-head in the Iron Bowl this week to prove who is the best RB in Alabama as Tate said. Ingram leads the SEC with 1,399 yds (6.8) and 12 TD’s and is near the top of most current Heisman polls. Tate is #3 in the SEC with 1,209 rush yds (5.4) and 8 TD’s, but must face Alabama’s tough-as-nails defense that is only allowing 70.4 rush ypg this year. Alabama’s D hasn’t allowed a 100 yard rusher in the last 31 games. Both are well rested as Ingram sat out much of last week’s blowout vs Chattanooga and Auburn is off a bye. The Ingram/Tate battle will certainly be entertaining to watch.
Dion Lewis, Pittsburgh-The Panthers have a huge game on deck but won’t overlook rival West Virginia in the annual Backyard Brawl. True freshman Dion Lewis leads the Big East in rushing with 1,291 yards but the Mountaineers’ Devine is hot on his heels with 1,098 yds. WV has allowed 160 rush ypg (4.6) in conference play and Lewis will want to prove that he’s the Big East’s best back.
Dexter McCluster, Ole Miss - McCluster has brought the Ole Miss offense back to life almost single-handedly in the last few weeks after taking more snaps at RB and now leads the team with 903 rush yds (6.9) and is the #2 receiver with 34 (12.1) and last week threw his first TD pass out of the Wild Rebel formation. In his last 4 games (sat out Northern Arizona) McCluster has averaged 185 rush ypg (7.9) with 5 TD’s with 18 receptions (11.9) and another TD. MSU is allowing 151 rush ypg (4.0) with 18 TD’s on the year. Ole Miss has a trip to the Capital One bowl on the line and will ride the SEC’s hottest back in the last month to get there.
Alfred Morris, Florida Atlantic-Who? It’s probably fair to say that this Owl is one of the nation’s most obscure 1,000 rushers. He’s second in the Sun Belt with 1,112 yds (5.2) and has run for at least 79 yds in 9 of 10 games this season including vs South Carolina and Nebraska’s tough defenses. This week FAU takes on a Western Kentucky squad which is allowing 268 rush ypg (6.0) and a huge game could give him the Sun Belt rushing title as a sophomore in what could be a bright spot in what has been a disappointing season for the Owls.
HONORABLE MENTIONS:
Baron Batch, Texas Tech-I must be crazy picking a running back from Mike Leach’s pass-happy offense, but Batch had a career high 136 yds and 2 TD’s last week versus Oklahoma’s defense. He now takes on Baylor’s D which comes in at #100 in the NCAA in rush defense allowing 186 rush ypg (4.6). Batch is only one cog in this explosive offense, but Leach could ride the hot RB versus a porous Baylor rush defense in their final home game of the season.
WIDE RECEIVERS:
MY WR’s of the Week (4 selections): Denario Alexander, Missouri/Dezmond Briscoe, Kansas, Emmanuel Sanders, SMU, and Damaris Johnson, Tulsa
Denario Alexander, Missouri/Dezmond Briscoe, Kansas-This year’s Border Showdown should be a showcase for 2 of the nation’s top WR’s. Missouri receiver Alexander is hot with 3 straight games with double digit receptions and over 170 receiving yds in each. He has moved up to #3 in the NCAA with an impressive 92 rec for 1,411 yds (15.3) with 12 TD’s. On the other sideline is Dezmond Briscoe who has moved up to #5 in the NCAA with 70 receptions for 1,095 (15.6) despite missing the opener. This is the final regular season game for both and each will want to have a big game vs their rival.
Emmanuel Sanders, SMU - Sanders, a senior, will be playing his final game in front of the home crowd and will look to go out with a bang. He is already SMU’s career leader in several receiving categories. This year he is avg 97.4 rec ypg (#7 NCAA) & is also #7 in the NCAA avg 7.7 rec/gm. He has four 100 yd receiving games & this week faces a banged-up Tulane secondary that may start 2 true frosh. Tulane ranks #117 in my pass efficiency defense rankings allowing 214 ypg (69%) with a 20-5 ratio. Sanders should have a big day in his final game at home.
Damaris Johnson, Tulsa-Johnson went over the 1,000 yd receiving mark with a 17-196 outing last week. He is averaging 149 receiving ypg (13.2) in his last 4 games. He faces a struggling Memphis secondary that was torched for 578 yds & 5 TD’s last week vs Houston. The Tigers are ranked #109 in my pass efficiency defense rankings allowing 285 ypg (61%) with a 26-8 ratio. Johnson is also dangerous as a runner and as a returnman, so expect him to make big plays all over the field.
HONORABLE MENTIONS:
Alshon Jeffery/Moe Brown, South Carolina-These 2 lead South Carolina in receiving this year and take turns as the team’s receiving leader from week to week. Jeffery is a 6’3” true freshman who is PS#10 and leads SC with 39 receptions for 670 yds (17.2) while Moe Brown is a 6’0” senior playing in his final home game and has 31 receptions for 454 yards (14.6). The duo only has four 100+ yard receiving games this year, so a big day would certainly qualify as surprise pick going up against Clemson’s #8 pass defense which is only allowing 187 pass ypg (51%) with a 15-20 ratio.
Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma-The Sooners have had a disappointing season due to injuries, but have won all 5 of their home games this year by an average of 50-9 outgaining opponents by 321 ypg. Broyles has been steady this year with 67 receptions for 861 yards (12.9) with 12 TD’s and is #4 in the Big 12 in receiving ypg (86). This week Oklahoma takes on rival Oklahoma St in the Battle of Bedlam and OSU needs a win to have a shot at a BCS bid. Oklahoma has nothing to lose and will play that way. OSU is #13 in my pass defense rankings due to the strength of opponents faced including Houston’s Case Keenum (allowed 366 yds) and is allowing 244 pass ypg with four 300+ yd passing games allowed. Broyles has four 100+ yd receiving games this year and will have to have a big day for the Sooners to win.
No Brainer:
Freddie Barnes, Bowling Green-The Biletnikoff finalist and the nation’s leading receiver with 129 receptions needs 13 to tie Houston’s Manny Hazard (1989) to become the FBS’s single season reception leader. The Falcons have 6 wins but would likely get a bowl bid if they beat their rival Rockets whose pass defense is allowing 251 ypg (57%) with a 24-12 ratio (#102 NCAA).
DEFENSES:
My Defenses of the Week (3 selections): San Jose St, Mississippi, and Colorado
San Jose St vs New Mexico St-The Spartans have struggled this season at #117 NCAA in total defense with a schedule frontloaded with powerful offenses. In fact the ‘weakest’ FBS offense they’ve faced this year (Utah) is #51 in the NCAA in total offense with 7 of their opponents in the NCAA’s top 25 and that number doesn’t even include USC. After the announcement of head coach Dick Tomey’s retirement last week SJSt played their best defensive game of the season holding Hawaii’s powerful offense to just 10 points in regulation. This week the Spartans face the weakest offense they will face all season in New Mexico St which comes in with the nation’s #120 ranked offense (that’s dead last) averaging just 234 ypg & 12 ppg. Look for the Spartans to make the longtime defensive guru proud in his final home game. Picking the #117 defense certainly is a surprise pick!
Mississippi vs Mississippi St-Last year I used Ole Miss as my defense of the week in the Egg Bowl and they simply had the most dominating defensive performance in all of the FBS Division last year holding Mississippi State to 24 total yards including -64 yards rushing with a school record 11 sacks. Ole Miss’ defense hasn’t been as stifling this year (still #4 in the SEC allowing 311 total ypg) and MSU’s offense has improved (#7 in the SEC averaging 368 ypg) under new Head Coach Mullen, but I still expect Ole Miss’ defense to rise to the occasion here as they need a win to capture a bid to the prestigious Capital One Bowl.
Colorado vs Nebraska-Here’s another big surprise pick as Colorado’s defense is #72 in the NCAA allowing 376 total ypg. This is a great situation for the Buffalos however as their rival Nebraska has a trip to the Big 12 Title game on deck, and may look past this 4-7 Colorado team. My computer predicts that Colorado will hold the Huskers to 273 total yds which is 73 yds less than NU’s season average and that would be a Win.
HONORABLE MENTION:
Arizona vs Arizona St-Arizona is coming off a disappointing loss to Oregon in two overtimes which knocked them out of the Rose Bowl race and now must face their rival on the road. Last year Arizona held ASU to just 162 total yds in the “Territorial Cup” and ASU is only averaging 337 ypg this year. I expect Arizona to rebound from last week’s loss and to lay the hammer down again versus their rival ASU.
No Brainers:
TCU vs New Mexico-TCU will complete their undefeated season with another blowout win with this week’s victim being New Mexico. My computer predicts that TCU will hold the Lobos to 3 points and just 175 total yards and grab a well-deserved BCS bid.
UPSET OF THE WEEK: SOUTHERN MISS over East Carolina
This game will decide the CUSA East representative to the CUSA Title game, so expect both teams to give it their all. Southern Miss has won 7 in a row in Greenville and last year Southern Miss held EC to just 255 yards and 3 points in a 21-3 win. I rank these teams close in terms of talent and with Southern Miss holding that string of wins, I will side with the Golden Eagles to upset the defending CUSA champs.
A special thanks to our friends at CFFinsider.com for providing us with their Week 13 Rankings
A special thanks to our friends at CollegeFootballGeek.com for providing us with their Waiver Wire Report for Week 13.
WAIVER WIRE REPORT – WEEK 13
Need to bolster your roster? Here is a look at the top college fantasy football prospects who may be available on the waiver wire.
QUARTERBACKS
Warning: The pickings are slim this week. Hopefully, those of you still alive in your playoff run aren’t in need of a QB. Here are a few desperation possibilities:
Andrew Luck, Stanford (vs. Notre Dame)
We all know how bad the ND defense is. While Toby will gets his share of the workload, Luck should be good for a couple TDs of his own. Think of him as a BCS-only option.
Taylor Potts, Texas Tech (vs. Baylor)
Is it possible that Potts is somehow floating out there on your wire? If so, he’s worth snagging with Baylor up next. Potts looked shockingly good against the Sooners last week and will likely get the start again this week.
Jeff Van Camp, Florida Atlantic (vs. Western Kentucky)
FAU faces a bad Western Kentucky squad. If they decide to lean on the passing game, JVC could produce some nice stats. If they decide to put the ball in the belly of Alfred Morris 30 times, then this could be a bust waiting to happen. JVC is only an option is you are completely desperate at the QB position.
RUNNING BACKS
Charles Clay, Tulsa (vs. Memphis)
Clay was one of the biggest draft day busts of the season, but he came up huge last week with 162 yards of offense and 4 TD’s. He is a tremendous risk at this point, especially in a fantasy title game. But the match up is right. If you like to live on the edge and are having major woes at RB, Clay is an option.
Matt Brown, Temple (vs. Ohio) ***Might be listed as a WR in your league settings
Brown took over last week when Benard Pierce went down and produced 18 carries for 152 yards and 2 scores. It remains to be seen how the Temple backfield will shake out this week, but it might be worth stashing Brown on your roster in the event that we get word he will be The Man this week. And like Dexter McCluster, it sure is nice when your “WR” is getting 18 touches a game.
Charles Sims, Houston (vs. Rice)
Sims is still out there in a number of leagues. With Bryce Beall missing last week’s game to injury, Sims totaled 145 yards and 2 scores. If Beall remains out, look for Sims to light up Rice this week.
Martin Ward, Marshall (vs. UTEP)
Ward subbed in for the banged up Darius Marshall and posted a 25-136-1 statline last week. If Darius remains on the bench, Ward is a possibility this week.
Chris Polk, Washington (vs. Washington State)
Polk has a 3-game 100-yard rushing streak going at the moment. He should be well-rested after a bye week, and ready to roll over Wazzu. One warning, though. Polk has only scored 3 TDs on the season.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Jerrell Jackson, Missouri (vs. Kansas)
Since Jared Perry went done with a season-ending injury, Jackson has produced nicely. Last week he cranked out a 8-142-1 statline.
Andre Jones, Akron (vs. Eastern Michigan)
Savvy owners know that Jones started out this preseason as a mid-tier fantasy WR option. Then he moved over to defense. Injuries to the WR corps in October necessitated a move back over to the offensive side of the ball. Jones has responded well by scoring a TD in 4 of his last five outings.
Jermaine Kearse, Washington (vs. Washington State)
Kearse has logged 12-184-4 over the past two games. Up next: Wazzu.
Darryl Freeney, East Carolina (vs. Southern Miss)
Freeney has posted back-to-back 100 yard, 1 TD performances. This week could be a shootout against USM.
TIGHT ENDS
Ladarius Green, UL-Lafayette (vs. Troy)
Green came back from injury in a big way, posting a 7-131-0 statline. The match up is tough this week, but he is probably your best option out there if you need a TE from the wire.
Lee Smith, Marshall (vs. UTEP)
Smith was a hot waiver wire name last week and he came up small. Perhaps the second time is a charm? The match up is favorable.
Jesse Rack, Buffalo (vs. Kent State)
Rack has five 10+ fantasy point performances this year. He was on the receiving end of a trick play last week for a score.
DEFENSES
Temple (vs. Ohio)
Temple has scored 11 or more fantasy points in 5 straight games. They are a Top 20 fantasy defense on the season, and have scored more points than Florida in some formats. If you’re stuck without a defense in Week 13, you could do worse than the Owls.
Washington (vs. Washington State)
Feast on the weak.
Cincinnati (vs. Illinois)
The Illini are mistake-prone, and Cincy has been playing inspired ball all year.
A special thanks to our friends at CollegeFootballGeek.com for providing us for their Sneaky Plays for Week 13.
SNEAKY PLAYS – WEEK 13
Do you need roster help this weekend, but missed out on the hot waiver wire pick ups? Here are some sneaky, under-the-radar players who have favorable matchups this week.
Quarterbacks
Andrew Luck QB Stanford vs. Notre Dame:
This true freshman has looked very good all year long and will love playing against an awful Notre Dame pass defense this week. With the Golden Domers concentrating their efforts on stopping Toby Gerhart, this signal caller should have receivers running wide open down field.
Jordan Jefferson QB LSU vs. Arkansas:
While this Tiger is not putting up gaudy numbers this season, he is solid and gets to face a rancid Arkansas defense that ranks 108th in the country against the pass. The Tigers will come out of the gates looking to put it on someone and the Razorbacks secondary will oblige.
Jonathan Crompton QB Tennessee vs. Kentucky:
The senior leader of the Volunteers has had a surprisingly productive fantasy season. He has thrown for 25 touchdowns and over 2300 yards passing. This week he gets to face a Kentucky defense that is tough against the pass but should be susceptible to the play action game with the success of the Vols ground game.
Running Backs
Chris Polk RB Washington vs. Washington State:
This red shirt freshman is on a streak of three straight 100 yard rushing performances and that streak will continue against the woeful Washington State. The Cougars allow an unbelievable 233 yards per game on the ground and also have given up a mind boggling 33 rushing touchdowns on the season. There is no such thing as a guarantee in fantasy football but this is close.
Isaiah Pead RB Cincinnati vs. Illinois:
This speedy Bearcat has scored 6 times in his last four games and should find pay dirt against this week against Illinois. This game is very important for Cincy and Pead should find some nice running lanes against the 79th ranked run defense of the Illini.
Ryan Houston RB North Carolina vs. North Carolina State:
The Tar Heels love to run the football and this bruiser loves all the work he receives on a weekly basis. He should be licking his chops this week as he gets a Wolf Pack defense that has allowed whopping 25 rushing touchdowns on the year.
Wide Receivers
Marcus Easley WR UCONN vs. Syracuse:
This former walk on has been the go to wide out for the Huskies all year long. This week he faces a vulnerable Orange pass defense that ranks 91st in the country. With all of Syracuse’s effort directed at stopping the Huskies run game, Easley should be able to catch a couple of deep ones. He could easily top 100 yards and grab a touchdown.
Donovan Varner WR Duke vs. Wake Forest:
While there is never any love for Duke players from a fantasy perspective, there should be some for this youngster. He is coming off a huge effort against Miami where he recorded 165 yards and a score. This game with the Demon Decons should be high scoring and Varner will be heavily in the mix.
Jerrell Jackson WR Missouri vs. Kansas:
This talented sophomore is living up to the hype with his recent performances. Last week was his coming out party when he grabbed 142 yards and a touchdown against Iowa State. He is now in the starting lineup for the Tigers and should be for your fantasy team this week. Look for a repeat performance out of this kid.
Sneaky Defensive Plays:
Texas Tech vs. Baylor
Washington vs. Washington State
More…
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