PHIL STEELE'S TOP 25 FORECASTS • Week 7

Every week we will post my Forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.

So far this year the Top 25 Forecasts have gone 99-23 81% picking the winners of each game. That record may sound great, but do keep in mind most games have involved teams that were big favorites so the majority of people will have a solid record on these games as well. On the bottom of the forecast, I have listed some Upset Specials which have pulled the upset 8 out of 17 times. Combined the first six weeks record is 110-35 76%!!


#1 FLORIDA vs ARKANSAS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ARKANSAS 65
185
14
2.7
–
#1 FLORIDA
280
245
37
1.8
••••
Arkansas is 0-7 vs Florida in SEC play including the two SEC Title games. Florida RB’s Demps and Harvin both topped 100 yards rush last year in Florida’s 38-7 win with UF scoring 21 points in the 4Q. Arkansas actually had a 238-180 yard edge at the half (UF led 14-0). Florida is off their big 13-3 win at LSU ending LSU’s streak of 32 consecutive Saturday night home wins. Tebow (155 pass yards per game, 66%, 7-2 ratio, 309 rush, 4.3) returned from a concussion to play every snap last week but was held to 38 yards rush in a conservative game plan. Arkansas upset previously unbeaten #17 Auburn last week 44-23 with 495-375 yard and 28-15 FD edges. Arkansas QB Mallett is averaging 284 ypg (57%) with a 13-3 ratio but was held to 12-35 for 160 yards with a 1-1 ratio vs Alabama’s tough defense and now takes on an even tougher unit.
PHIL’S FORECAST : FLORIDA 38 ARKANSAS 10

#3 TEXAS vs #20 OKLAHOMA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
#20 OKLA 120
230
24
3.0
–
#3 TEXAS
80
280
27
3.3
••
Eighty first straight Red River Rivalry in Dallas. Oklahoma was up last year 21-10 before a key injury to MLB Reynolds changed the complexion of the game. QB McCoy is averaging 282 ypg (73%) with a 10-6 ratio. Oklahoma beat an injury-plagued Baylor squad last week (318 yard edge) but hasn’t won away from Norman this year. QB Bradford returned last week (389 yds, 55%, 1-0 ratio) but felt the effects of his shoulder injury (career high 22 incompletions) but should be close to 100% this week. Oklahoma is averaging 188 yards per game (4.4) on the ground as Texas is allowing just 46 yards per game (1.6) but the Sooners are ranked #1 in our pass efficiency defense allowing 202 yards per game (55%) with a 6-8 ratio while the Horns come in at #17 (187 yards, 53%, 6-8). Oklahoma is already without TE Gresham for the year and WR Broyles in questionable.
PHIL’S FORECAST :  TEXAS 23 OKLAHOMA 17

#5 BOISE STATE  vs TULSA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
#5 BOISE ST 131
200
27
2.4
•••
TULSA
189
215
25
2.5
–
Tulsa has been impressive this year vs overmatched foes as they have beaten Tulane, New Mexico, Sam Houston and Rice by an average of 41-9 (check). Against the 1 team they’ve played in Boise’s class (Oklahoma) they were shutout 45-0. Tulsa is a very tough at home but Boise was my pick to be the non-BCS team to make a BCS bowl this year and I will side with the Broncos tonight.
PHIL’S FORECAST : Boise St 34 Tulsa 20

#6 USC at #25 NOTRE DAME
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
#6 USC 188
250
27
2.5
–
#25 ND
102
285
19
2.2
–
Both teams return from a bye with Notre Dame having lost 7 straight in the series including last year by a combined 76-3 score (38-0 in South Bend in 2007). Last year Notre Dame did not get a FD until the final play of the 3rd quarter as USC had 22-4 FD and 449-91 yard edges. QB Clausen, who is averaging 309 yards per game (68%) with a 12-2 ratio, is battling a toe injury and the loss of his top WR which will be crucial against a USC defense (our #2 ranking) that’s surrendering 8.6 points per game and 239 yards per game. QB Barkley has shown impressive poise averaging 240 yards per game (59%) with a 3-2 ratio leading the Trojans to impressive road wins at OSU and at California (did not play vs Washington due to a shoulder injury). USC has dominated this series since the “Bush Push” in 2005 and could use a statement game here to climb back into the BCS picture, as there doesn’t appear to be many more high-profile teams on the Trojans plate for the rest of 2009. The Irish are as pumped up for this as they were in 2005!
PHIL’S FORECAST : USC 34 NOTRE DAME 24

 

 

#8 CINCINNATI at #21 USF
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
#8 CINCY 53
280
2.8
••
#21 USF
167
230
2.8
–

USF does very well at home vs higher ranked teams. USF has the speed advantage and BJ Daniels has been very impressive in his 2 games and possesses a stronger arm and is faster than Grothe. This will be a “Green Out” at the USF tonight and look for the Bulls to pull off the home upset.
PHIL’S FORECAST :  USF 23 Cincinnati 20

#11 IOWA at WISCONSIN
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
#11 IOWA 95
200
24
2.8
–
WISCONSIN
190
220
27
3.4
–
RB Greene had a career high 217 yards and 4 touchdowns last year as Iowa ran over the Badgers 38-16 (most Iowa points since 1978). Head Coach Bielema was Iowa’s DB and assistant coach (‘93-‘01) and has a Tiger Hawk tattoo. The Badgers are 2-5 vs Iowa with the 5 losses by 16 points per game.   The 6-0 Hawks are off to their best start since 1985 and have won 10 straight for the 1st time since 1923 thanks to their 30-28 defeat of Michigan in which they forced 5 turnovers. QB Stanzi is averaging 227 yards per game (57%) with 10-8 ratio including 3 pick 6’s this year. TE Moeaki returned after missing 3 games and had 6 receptions including touchdowns of 35 and 42 yards. Iowa is tied at #2  in the NCAA with 19 turnovers forced but is allowing a surprising 134 rush yards per game (4.2). Wisconsin dominated the stat sheet vs Ohio St with 22-8 first down, 368-184 yard and 42:47-17:13 time of possession edges but the Bucks scored 3 defensive/special teams TD’s, UW missed 2 FG’s and had 4 turnovers overall in a 31-13 loss in Columbus. QB Tolzien (216 yards per game, 64%, 9-5 ratio) was harassed into 2 pick sixes and sacked 6 times after UW had allowed an NCAA best 2 into the game. The league’s leading rusher, PS#3 Clay (641, 4.9) had just 59 yards (3.0). Iowa has big defensive (#18-58) and special teams (#27-51) edges while Badgers have the offensive edge (#22-52) and need to beat their rivals to stay in the Big Ten race.
PHIL’S FORECAST : WISCONSIN 24 IOWA 23

#14 PENN STATE vs MINNESOTA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MINNESOTA 64
173
14
2.6
•••
#14 PENN ST
212
268
33
2.6
–
Minny had pulled upsets here in Happy Valley in 1999 and 2003 but Penn St won 44-14 in 2005. The team that has rushed for more yards has won the last 5 and my computer says Penn St will have a 212-64 rush edge here. Minny has trailed in all of their games this year including 10-0 mid-2Q to Purdue last week before the Boilers unraveled due to turnovers and special team mistakes which set the Gophers up for TD drives of 2, 41, 30 and 31 yards in a 35-20 win. QB Weber ranks #11 in the Big Ten in pass efficiency (204 yards per game, 57%, 6-8 ratio) despite having the conference’s best WR in Decker (46, 15.0). The Gophers are the league’s worst rush offense (115, 3.6) and have allowed 15 sacks (#93 NCAA). PSU jumped out to a 38-0 halftime lead thanks to a 91 yard fumble returned for a touchdown by Bowman with :05 left in the 2Q in a 52-3 win over FCS’s #25 Eastern Illinois. The Big Ten’s pass efficiency leader, QB Clark (228 yards per game, 62%, 12-7 ratio), has rebounded from the Iowa loss thanks to a run game averaging 312 yards per game (8.2) the last two. The tough front 7 leads Big Ten in rush defense (82, 2.6) and sacks (20). Minny has a huge special teams edge (#16-111) but Penn St has big offensive (#15-68) and defensive  (#11-64) edges. This could be the first time all year that Lee and Bowman are healthy and able to play together at LB for the Lions for a whole game.
PHIL’S FORECAST : #14 PENN ST 37 MINNESOTA 13

#16 OKLAHOMA ST vs MISSOURI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MISSOURI 108
235
26
2.8
–
#16 OKLA ST
192
245
31
2.3
••
This is the Cowboys Homecoming. Mizzou is 8-4 vs Oklahoma St and the 4 defeats were by a combined 14 points. The Tigers suffered their first loss of the season last Thursday Night (led 12-0 after 3Q’s). QB Gabbert (259 yards per game, 60%, 11-2 ratio) is coming off the worst outing of his young career (40% tossing 2 interceptions) but hurt his leg early (played entire game) and might not be 100% here. Oklahoma St escaped Texas A&M last week and appeared to be distracted without its top two stars. QB Robinson is averaging 214 yards per game (61%) with an 8-3 ratio. OSU is ranked #7 in my pass efficiency defense allowing 241 yards per game (55%) with a 7-4 ratio as Mizzou comes in at #40 (206 yards per game, 58%, 6-2). The Cowboys are tough at home going 9-2 and should take care of things here.
PHIL’S FORECAST : OKLAHOMA ST 34 MISSOURI 17

 

 

#18 BYU at SAN DIEGO STATE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
#18 BYU 168
273
40
2.7
–
SDST
43
248
17
3.2
–
San Diego St DC Rocky Long knows how to defend BYU’s offense as his defenses at New Mexico held BYU under their season average by 10 points per game the last 8 years. Long has worked his magic again here as the Aztec defense is allowing 152 yards per game less than last year. Meanwhile BYU has their sights set on a MWC Title after last week’s 59-21 demolition of UNLV in which the Cougars racked up 611 yards of offense. QB Hall is averaging 287 yards per game (69%) but with only a 13-10 ratio. San Diego St QB Lindley is averaging 226 yards per game (51%) with an 8-9 ratio but only hit 7-27 for 123 yards vs New Mexico St last game out. San Diego St has lost 3 straight to BYU and 7 of the last 8 by an average of 26 points per game having allowed 41+ points in 6 of the 7 losses. BYU does have a huge game vs TCU next week, while San Diego St is fresh off a bye. While we like their progress, the Aztecs have work to do and they unfortunately run up against a focused BYU squad whose goal is to separate themselves from the rest of the conference.  
PHIL’S FORECAST : BYU 38 SAN DIEGO ST 17

 

 

#24 UTAH at UNLV
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
#24 UTAH 251
230
37
1.7
–
UNLV
94
225
21
2.9
–
UNLV coach Sanford is on the hot-seat after two embarrassing losses to Nevada and BYU where the Rebels defense gave up an average of 692 yards per game and 61 points per game! Meanwhile, the Utes intercepted 3 passes in the 2nd half to overcome a 14 point deficit on the road to beat Colorado St 24-17 last week. Utah QB Cain has been tremendous averaging 232 yards per game (64%) with an 8-5 ratio while RB Wide has filled in nicely for 1st Tm All-MWC Asiata (who is out for the year) with two straight 100 yard games. Two years ago UNLV, at home, handed Utah its first shutout loss in conference play. However, last year despite being tied at halftime, Utah pulled out a 21 pt win. Utah holds the series edge with a 12-2 record (40-23 average score). CLICK HERE FOR LAST 12 YEARS MATCHUPS. The big question here will be whether or not the Rebels have any fight left. If they do, the Utes could find themselves in another close game and an upset would not surprise me.
PHIL’S FORECAST : UTAH 31 UNLV 27

 
#2 ALABAMA vs #22 S CAROLINA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
#22 S CARO 38
135
9
2.5
–
#2 ALABAMA
192
200
30
1.6
•••
The last meeting was a 37-14 Tide road win in 2005. Alabama has held 4 of 6 opponents under 88 yards in the 1H and last week held Mississippi to 19 yards and one FD in the 1H in their 22-3 win. South Carolina escaped with a 28-26 win over Kentucky as UK had a chance to tie with 4:34 left but couldn’t convert on a 2 point try. Kentucky had 205 rush yards (4.4) vs South Carolina’s #15 defense which has allowed 188 rush ypg (4.3) their last 2 (South Carolina St and Kentucky) after only allowing 100 yards per game (3.0) in the first 3 games. Alabama averaged 224 rush yards per game (5.2) led by RB Ingram (659, 5.9). My computer says the Tide will have a 392-173 yard edge here and Alabama should grab their 4th consecutive double-digit win over an SEC foe.
PHIL’S FORECAST : ALABAMA 31 S CAROLINA 10

 

#4 VIRG TECH vs #19 GA TECH
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
#4 VA TECH 200
173
31
2.2
•••
#19 GA TECH
286
158
30
2.3
–
Prior to last year’s matchup, the winner of their previous four ACC games were decided by 23 points per game. Virginia Tech is 4-2 in the series and in their last visit here they dominated Georgia Tech 27-3. Virginia Tech is 15-5 on the ACC road. RB Ryan Williams is #1 in the ACC (#6 NCAA, averaging 122 yards per game) with 734 rush yards (5.8). QB Tyrod Taylor, who Beamer compared to Michael Vick, is averaging 166 yards per game (56%) with an 8-1 ratio. While Georgia Tech has the offensive edge (#7-27), Virginia Tech has a solid defensive edge (#14-50). RB Dwyer is #2 in the ACC with 511 rush yards. QB Nesbitt is averaging 141 yards per game (51%) with a 4-2 ratio and is #3 in the ACC with 503 rush yards (3.9). This game will likely decide who wins the Coastal as Georgia Tech will be favored in each of their last 3 ACC games. CLICK HERE FOR PROJECTED STANDINGS.
PHIL’S FORECAST : VIRGINIA TECH 34 GEORGIA TECH 27

 

#7 OHIO STATE at PURDUE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
#7 OHIO ST 193
90
29
2.2
–
PURDUE
37
260
11
3.6
–
Ohio St is 12-2 vs Purdue but 2-2 the last four in West Lafayette. Last year Ohio St was held without an offensive touchdown and was outgained 298-222 in a 16-3 win. Ohio St could tie the Big 10 record for consecutive road wins. Purdue is #118 in the NCAA in turnovers (lost 2+ every game) including 3 more last week and a blocked field goal which was returned 46 yards for a touchdown in a 35-20 loss at Minnesota in which Purdue blew a 10-0 lead and had 23-14 FD and 402-281 yard edges. QB Elliott is averaging 263 yards per game (60%) with a 12-9 ratio (Big Ten’s most interceptions). The Boilers are allowing 167 rush yards per game (4.0). Ohio St played classic Tressel-ball with 3 defensive/special team TD’s in a 31-13 win over Wisconsin despite being out-first-downed 22-8, outgained 368-184 with a 42:47-17:13 Badger time of possession edge. Inconsistent QB Pryor is averaging 158 yards per game (56%) with a 9-6 ratio and 333 rush yards. Ohio St’s defense is #5 allowing just one meaningful TD drive the last 4 and sacking Wisconsin QB Tolzien 6 times (Badgers came in allowing NCAA best 2 sacks). Ohio St has big special teams edge (#15-84). Expect to see a lot of Scarlet in the stands.
PHIL’S FORECAST : OHIO STATE 34 PURDUE 10

 

#9 MIAMI, FL at UCF
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
#9 Miami 110
245
28
2.5
–
UCF
105
175
14
2.8
••
Last year in the first meeting Miami’s defense dominated holding the Knights to 10 FD’s and 78 TOTAL yards but the Hurricanes allowed a 62 yard interception return and a 91 yard kick return, both for touchdowns. UCF figures to be sky high for this home matchup vs their big brother and they are off a bye. There have only been 2 ranked teams to travel to Bright House and UCF had a 3 pt loss to #6 Texas and an overttime loss to #17 USF. QB Hodges is averaging 182 yards per game (62%) with a 6-6 ratio. RB Harvey has rushed for 536 yards (4.2). QB Harris is averaging 245 yards per game (63%) with a 10-7 ratio. WR Benjamin (4.26 speed) has 11 receptions (21.3). Miami has a big ACC game vs Clemson on deck and this is the first non-ranked FBS team UM has faced this year but won’t be in a letdown spot here as they are coming off their win over FCS Florida A&M.
PHIL’S FORECAST : MIami, FL 31 UCF 10

 

#12 TCU vs COLORADO STATE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
COLO ST 57
183
11
2.3
–
#12 TCU
214
243
35
1.9
•••
TCU continued their march towards a shot at the BCS with a hard-fought 20-17 win last week vs Air Force. QB Dalton has been superb averaging 202 yards per game (66%) with a 6-3 ratio. Meanwhile Colorado St blew a 14 pt 2nd half lead last week to Utah where QB Stucker threw 3 consecutive interceptions that led to Utah scores. The Rams have a 1-5 record vs TCU and have not won since 1998 (1st meeting). TCU has massive edges on offense (#47-82), defense (#8-93) and special teams (#30-94). However, last year TCU had a huge game at BYU on deck and only won 13-7 and once again has BYU on deck. The Frogs get the win but may not bring their “A” game.
PHIL’S FORECAST : TCU 31 COLORADO STATE 10

 

#15 NEBRASKA vs TEXAS TECH
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TX TECH 4
333
22
2.9
–
#15 NEB
167
278
36
2.3
•
In 2004 Texas Tech dominated Nebraska 70-10. Last year Nebraska played keep away vs Texas Tech with a 40:12-19:48 TOP edge (+50 yards and +13 FD), but lost in OT. Last week Nebraska was down 12-0 after 3Q’s on a rainy Thursday Night but put up 27 unanswered for the comeback vs Mizzou. First year QB Lee is averaging 217 yards per game (59%) with a 10-3 ratio and was almost pulled last week but took a huge step “growing up” in the 4Q. Texas Tech may have played their best game of the season last week walloping KSU (455 yard and 23 FD edge and the 739 total yards was 3rd best under Leach). QB Sheffield started his 1st game and was the 1st backup in the Leach era to do so. He was outstanding with 490 yards (80%) and a 7-1 ratio. Potts (363 yards per game, 68%, 13-6) could be back here. Both offenses are potent (Nebraska #25, Texas Tech #8) but Nebraska has the better defense (#10-40) and is ranked #18 in our pass efficiency defense allowing 163 yards per game (48%) with a 1-5 ratio. Nebraska is 31-1 in conf home openers.
PHIL’S FORECAST : NEBRASKA 38 TX TECH 17

 

#17 KANSAS at COLORADO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
#17 KANSAS 120
253
30
1.8
–
COLORADO
126
278
26
2.5
••
Colorado is 15-5 hosting Big 12 North teams and the home team is 9-3. QB Hawkins is averaging 223 yards per game (51%) with a 9-9 ratio but Head Coach Hawkins pulled the redshirt off Hansen (17 yds, 60%) last week. Kansas is only one of 9 unbeatens left in the FBS but did look suspect last week on defense allowing 512 to Iowa St. QB Reesing is averaging 316 yards per game (69%) with a 13-3 ratio. Colorado is ranked #66 in my pass efficiency defense allowing 219 yards per game (63%) with an 8-3 ratio. Colorado Head Coach Hawkins is on the hottest seat opening 1-4 with 3 straight losing seasons and is in a must-win situation vs a poor road team (Kansas 12-31) and remember Colorado was up 14-3 last week vs the #3 team in the nation and held them to just 313 yards (200 yards below season average). Kansas has a BIG game against Oklahoma on deck at home and when I did radio shows in Kansas this summer they were talking about that game and the possibility of an upset. That could mean some look ahead is involved also.
PHIL’S FORECAST : COLORADO 31 KANSAS 27

 

#23 HOUSTON at TULANE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
#23 HOU 169
410
45
1.9
•••
TULANE
206
210
23
3.1
–
The Cougars have won 6 straight vs Tulane (average score of 38-15) and have outgained Tulane by 283 yards per game! Houston did win 34-10  their last trip here. Last week Houston rebounded and fought off Mississippi St for a 31-24 win. The offense continues to put up prolific numbers (569 yards per game, 40.2 points per game) led by QB Keenum who is averaging 426 yards per game (70%) with a 17-4 ratio. Houston has 4 players averaging over 74 receiving yards per game. Their run defense has been their Achilles’ heel as they have allowed 318 rush yards per game (6.9) the last two weeks. Tulane is a off a 31-10 home loss to Marshall but was outgained 404-323. RB Anderson has averaged 120 yards per game (4.9) the last three and combines with WR Williams (34, 17.0) to account for 62% of the team’s yards and both could have big days here. Tulane, however, is ranked #117 in our pass efficiency defense rankings allowing 197 yards per game (72%) with a 6-3 ratio vs a weak slate of opposing QB’s. Tulane has the workhorse back that can grind out the clock and keep Houston’s offense off the field and that should help the Green Wave keep it closer than expected. Keep in mind that last year when these two met Tulane did not have EITHER Williams or Anderson who were both out for the year with injuries.

 
PHIL’S FORECAST : HOUSTON 44 TULANE 30

 

UPSET SELECTIONS:
BALL STATE
over Bowling Green
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
over Mississippi St