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Daily Blog • Saturday, October 17th

• College Notes
Much has been made of Wisconsin's statistical domination of Ohio St in last week's 31-13 loss in Columbus. Part of OSU's absymal numbers (8 FD's and 184 total yds) can be attributed to the fact that the offense simply could not get onto the field thanks to scores by their defense and special teams as well as two Wisconsin drives (40/5pl and 79/16pl) which resulted in 3 pts. In fact after Ohio St had an 88/7pl TD drive to take a 14-10 lead with :46 left in the 2Q, the Buckeyes offense didn't take the field again until 1:40 was left in the 3Q and the lead was 28-13 thanks to an interception return and a kickoff return for TD's. OSU's offense sat out nearly 1 full quarter of action and for over an hour and 5 minutes in real time thanks to the break at the half. In fact the camera showed QB Terrelle Pryor warming up on the sideline during the 3Q awaiting the chance to get back onto the field.

I did not get a chance to get all the news and notes that I normally put up on Saturdays.
It was a busy week around the offices with the release of the ......
Midseason All-Conference & AlL- American teams this week.

Here are my computers average individual game ratings for the year for each team and they are ranked in order.

•  COMPUTER AVERAGE INDIVIDUAL GAME RATINGS •

1 FLORIDA 101.70 31 WAKE FOREST 80.48 61 MISS ST 73.98 91 MARSHALL 65.18
2 ALABAMA 99.28 32 STANFORD 80.35 62 COLORADO ST 73.79 92 UL MONROE 65.12
3 TEXAS 98.73 33 CLEMSON 80.08 63 TROY ST 72.99 93 WYOMING 65.08
4 OKLAHOMA 93.23 34 LSU 79.93 64 BAYLOR 72.77 94 FAU 64.97
5 NEBRASKA 93.12 35 KENTUCKY 79.75 65 BOSTON COLL 72.14 95 ARMY 64.85
6 USC 92.18 36 PITTSBURGH 79.70 66 MINNESOTA 71.73 96 RUTGERS 64.85
7 VIRGINIA TECH 91.21 37 WEST VIRGINIA 79.31 67 VANDERBILT 71.41 97 DUKE 64.26
8 OHIO ST 87.45 38 FLORIDA ST 79.29 68 FRESNO ST 71.34 98 SAN DIEGO ST 63.97
9 TENNESSEE 87.27 39 C MICHIGAN 79.11 69 BUFFALO 70.90 99 MARYLAND 63.62
10 CINCINNATI 86.90 40 SOUTH FLORIDA 78.38 70 MIDDLE TENN ST 70.73 100 LOUISIANA 63.36
11 BYU 86.72 41 BOISE ST 78.10 71 MISSISSIPPI 70.46 101 UAB 62.65
12 OREGON 86.30 42 NC ST 77.92 72 ILLINOIS 70.35 102 UNLV 62.56
13 TCU 85.69 43 OKLAHOMA ST 77.44 73 BOWLING GREEN 69.99 103 MEMPHIS 61.69
14 MIAMI FLA 85.64 44 UCLA 77.33 74 IDAHO 69.71 104 LOUISIANA TECH 61.27
15 AUBURN 85.62 45 TEXAS TECH 76.86 75 OHIO U 69.30 105 AKRON 59.84
16 PENN ST 84.65 46 CONNECTICUT 76.84 76 TEMPLE 69.08 106 SAN JOSE ST 59.51
17 NOTRE DAME 84.37 47 TULSA 76.62 77 ARKANSAS ST 69.03 107 UTEP 59.35
18 MISSOURI 83.60 48 GEORGIA 76.50 78 TOLEDO 68.57 108 IOWA ST 58.94
19 ARIZONA 83.16 49 MICHIGAN 76.45 79 N TEXAS ST 67.98 109 WASH ST 58.07
20 IOWA 83.14 50 NAVY 76.18 80 COLORADO 67.71 110 TULANE 57.92
21 GEORGIA TECH 82.96 51 KANSAS 75.52 81 LOUISVILLE 67.71 111 FLORIDA INT'L 57.37
22 ARKANSAS 82.72 52 ARIZONA ST 75.35 82 W MICHIGAN 67.56 112 MIAMI (OH) 56.74
23 S CAROLINA 82.18 53 AIR FORCE 75.35 83 NORTHWESTERN 67.10 113 KENT ST 56.28
24 UTAH 82.06 54 NEVADA 75.35 84 INDIANA 66.96 114 E MICHIGAN 55.28
25 MICHIGAN ST 81.26 55 PURDUE 75.08 85 SMU 66.55 115 BALL STATE 55.00
26 WASHINGTON 81.13 56 OREGON ST 74.80 86 KANSAS ST 66.28 116 RICE 54.73
27 CALIFORNIA 80.96 57 N CAROLINA 74.80 87 EAST CAROLINA 65.91 117 NEW MEXICO 54.50
28 WISCONSIN 80.76 58 VIRGINIA 74.53 88 UTAH ST 65.78 118 HAWAII 52.31
29 HOUSTON 80.74 59 S MISS 74.34 89 SYRACUSE 65.45 119 NEW MEXICO ST 51.93
30 TEXAS A&M 80.58 60 N ILLINOIS 74.31 90 UCF 65.23 120 W KENTUCKY 37.13

 

Good News!   Check out the NFL team pages. Do you see the average grade listed weekly? That will be up here for all 120 college teams on a daily basis so you will not have to wait until Saturday for them!!!
We will have the college converted to that format by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

• My NFL selections for the Week •

 

NY GIANTS AT NEW ORLEANS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NY GIANTS
115
208
20
2
#29
N ORLEANS
108
174
27
2
#28

New Orleans is 0-4 after a bye week including playoffs & in an interesting move Payton gave the team 5 days off to rest them here. New Orleans has been very lucky facing teams with weak or inexperienced QB’s to start the season. This will be the best Offensive line their #6 defense has faced this year. The Giants have some injury problems but I am impressed with how GM Reese put the team together in terms of depth. The Giants are one of the best road teams in the NFL at 19-4 including playoffs on the road & have the veteran leadership to pull out a close one.
PHIL’S FORECAST : NY GIANTS 24 NEW ORLEANS 23

 

KANSAS CITY AT WASHINGTON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
KANSAS CITY
79
108
13
1
#7
WASH
124
268
22
1
#15

The Redskins are under a ton of pressure here being just 2-3 with an offense that’s stuck in neutral despite having faced 4 straight winless teams. Things are only going to get worse here as LT Samuels could be forced to retire due to a neck stinger which will force who I think is their best player on offense in TE Chris Cooley to stay in & block. KC took DAL to limit last week & a really bad OL Cassel has a 7-2 ratio here. WAS is paying the price for not investing in the offense & I think the Chiefs make this another close game in what is likely to be bad weather conditions.

 
PHIL’S FORECAST : WASH 17 KANSAS CITY 14

 

 

CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CLEVELAND
65
128
9
1
#6
PITTSBURGH
155
248
24
2
#9

The Steelers are 11-0 vs the Browns & will get SS Polamalu back here. Unfortunately they lost DE Aaron Smith who is one of the best 3-4 DE’s in the NFL. Cleveland has moved the ball well on the ground the last 2 weeks with 171 & 146 yds but Pittsburgh hasn’t allowed a 100 yd rusher in 26 games. Anderson isn’t as bad as his 2 completetions on 17 attemtps last year as he had 9 drops also. However, the Steelers are livid over the fact they’ve given up more points in the 4Q (55) than in the 1st 3 quarters combined (43). Tomlin has challenged the team to close out games & they deliver here vs a Cleveland team with 15 total points in 3 road games this year.

 
PHIL’S FORECAST : PITTSBURGH 33 CLEVELAND 10

 

ST LOUIS AT JACKSONVILLE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ST LOUIS
140
205
10
2
#14
JACKSONVILLE
131
228
28
2
#17

St Louis has lost 15 straight games, are the lowest scoring offense in the NFL at 6.8 ppg with just 4 TD’s in 5 games this year & have been outscored by 64-3 combined in the 1Q & 3Q. The Jags were shutout Last week 41-0 as they were caught in a bad travel situation vs a Seattle team supercharged with the return of Hasselbeck. In 5 games Jones-Drew has only avg’d 66 ypg (4.4) but I think he’ll have a great shot here vs a Rams defense giving up 126 ypg (4.0). Bulger (4-26 L30 starts) is expected to return here & it wouldn’t surprise me if this was a higher scoring game as the Jags get the win at home. 

 
PHIL’S FORECAST : JACKSONVILLE 27 ST LOUIS 17

 

PHILADELPHIA AT OAKLAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
PHILADELPHIA
133
228
30
2
#21
OAKLAND
71
150
9
3
#25

This game features a rested PHI team that is 5-0 on the West Coast in their 1st road game since Week One. OAK is off their 3rd road game in 4 weeks, are 9-31 at home & are the 1st team since 1960 to be held to less than 200 yds in 4 straight games. Russell has avg’d 100 ypg (43%) with an 0-2 ratio the L4W & had 3 fumbles last week. He now faces a PHI team that has blitzed on 71 of 150 pass plays with a backup LG & RT here. I expect PHI to come in, get a big lead & then rest like the Giants did in the 2nd half last week.  

PHIL’S FORECAST : PHILADELPHIA 31 OAKLAND 10

 

 

BUFFALO AT NY JETS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BUFFALO
82
111
10
2
#22
NY JETS
160
103
20
2
#11

The good news for the Bills is that they get MLB Posluzny & SS Whitner back here. The bad news is that they will have 3 rookies starting on the OL, another player who didn’t take a snap in 2008 & catch a Jets defense that its seething after getting embarrassed on MNF. On the surface the Jets only have 4 sacks this year but they blitz heavily & get a lot of pressure as teams use more 3 step drops & max protections now after the NE game. BUF is junking their no-huddle offense & I think they will try to slow the game down with Marshawn Lynch & Fred Jackson. Bad weather is expected here but I like the Jets defense, OL, run game & attitude here & expect them to back up their swagger here.
PHIL’S FORECAST : NY JETS 27 BUFFALO 10

 

 

 

TENNESSEE AT NEW ENGLAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TENNESSEE
89
200
14
2
#32
N ENGLAND
102
283
31
1
#27

NE has the #9 & #11 units (+3 TO’s) vs TEN #17 & #24 units (-5 TO’s).  NE is the 2nd team since the 1970 merger to face 4 straight undefeated foes not including Week 1. While weather is expected to be a factor the Titans face the Patriots at a bad time here. TEN could very well be without 4 of 5 starters in the secondary (nickel DB’s get 50-60% snaps in a game) here & Belichick has been railing the offense for being 1 of 4 teams without a pass play of 40 yds TY. I called for the Titans to drop in the win column in my 2009 Pro Magazine but I have to admit they are 0-5 & NE should get right here.

 
PHIL’S FORECAST : NEW ENGLAND 28 TENNESSEE 10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DETROIT AT GREEN BAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DETROIT
95
200
21
2
#30
GREEN BAY
124
263
33
0
#16

The Lions haven’t won in Lambeau since 1991 & face a Packers team that is 6-2 after a bye including playoffs. Detroit sorely needs the bye that’s on deck for them & will be very short handed here. They are likely to be without QB Stafford & start WR Calvin Johnson here. Making things worse is that Green Bay gets LT Clifton back here & the Lions will be without 3 of 4 DL starters here. DET has allowed 245 ypg passing (73%) with a 15-3 ratio. 

 
PHIL’S FORECAST : GREEN BAY 34 DETROIT 17

 

 

HOUSTON AT CINCINNATI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
HOUSTON
77
253
21
1
#3
CINCINNATI
136
265
29
2
#26

The Texans blasted Cincinnati 35-6 as Houston dominated every phase of the game with a 384-253 yd edge, scored on a 73 yd PR & scored 21 unanswered points in the 2H. Houston dropped to 3-11 on the road failing to punch it in for the 2nd time in 3 games vs ARZ LW. Cincinnati could be emotionally spent here with all 5 games decided in the final minute, 3 straight wins by 3 pts vs division foes & the passing of DC Zimmer’s wife. One of the bigger surprises for 2009 is the fact that after 5 games Cedric Benson leads the NFL with 487 yds (6 more than Adrian Peterson) & he gets to face a Houston team allowing 141 yds rushing (5.2). I look for Cincinnati to get another win in a higher scoring game.

 
PHIL’S FORECAST : CINCINNATI 31 HOUSTON 24

 

BALTIMORE AT MINNESOTA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BALTIMORE
87
220
21
2
#13
MINNESOTA
92
255
28
1
#4

Favre is 5-0 for the 1st time in his career but now takes a big step up after facing St Loius last week. The Ravens have the #5 & #10 units here (+2 TO) vs MIN #18 & #14 units (+8 TO’s). BAL has lost 2 straight winnable games as the defense has made some mental errors & I have noticed 5 different players have been shuffled into Bart Scott’s former spot trying to find a replacement. Baltimore has really been airing it out This year (185 pass att’s) but RB Ray Rice & TE Todd Heap lead the team in rec’s showing the quality of WR’s. I like the matchup of my early Defensive MVP Jared Allen (6.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles 1 safety) vs rookie LT Michael Oher with a loud home edge as the Vikings stay undefeated. 

 
PHIL’S FORECAST : MINNESOTA 23 BALTIMORE 16

 

CAROLINA AT TAMPA BAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CAROLINA
149
183
22
1
#31
TAMPA BAY
122
156
18
2
#5

Carolina got their 1st win of the year last week as they rallied from a 17-2 deficit vs Washington. The Panthers -9 TO’s is a huge concern as nothing gives a bad team life like takeaways. Fox noted after Thursday’s practice that both RB’s Stewart & Williams will be 100% for the 1st time this year & the Bucs are allowing 153 ypg (4.7) on the ground. This is actually the 1st home start for Josh Johnson but WR Bryant is very questionable here. I think Carolina has an excellent shot of getting to .500 the next 2 weeks as they are finally healthy & get an overmatched division foe here.

 
PHIL’S FORECAST : CAROLINA 27 TAMPA BAY 17

 

ARIZONA AT SEATTLE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ARIZONA
43
250
19
0
#19
SEATTLE
130
283
26
1
#20

Seattle is simply a different team at home especially with Hasselbeck at QB as he knows the offense inside & out. While they are likely to start their #3 LT here the Cardinals defense isn’t the same as last year’s (#27 now) without Clancy Pendergast who was very adept at shifts & disguises. Seattle is slowly getting healthier on defense as they expect their #1 pass rusher in Patrick Kerney to return to a unit that is 3rd with 14 sacks. ARZ is only avg 57 ypg (3.1) on the ground & pass defense (9-3 ratio 7.8) could struggle vs a surprisingly deep WR unit here.

 
PHIL’S FORECAST : SEATTLE 28 ARIZONA 20

 

CHICAGO AT ATLANTA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CHICAGO
99
225
25
2
#1
ATLANTA
113
283
30
1
#10

Chicago had a 20-19 lead last year with :11 left on a 17 yd TD pass. CHI squib kicked but ATL took over at their 44 & Ryan threw a 26 yd pass with the WR being pushed out of bounce with :01 left. This set up a game winning 48 yd FG. Ryan is 9-1 as a starter at home with the 1 loss coming against Jay Cutler last year 24-20. The Bears return from their bye week & very pleased with Cutler who minus the GB game has avg’d 208 ypg (71%) with a 7-1 ratio. Atlanta throttled the 49ers 45-10 LY as the 49ers were overaggressive defending the pass & surprisingly undisciplined for a Singletary team. Both teams have rising stars at QB & this looks to be a very entertaining game.

 
PHIL’S FORECAST : ATLANTA 24 CHICAGO 21

 

 

A note from Josh Buchanan: Before I get into my picks I would like to remind everyone that I am producing weekly prospect reports on the small school players throughout the season at www.buyscouting.com for purchase.  You can also follow my weekly small school coverage at www.jbscouting.com. 

JOSH'S WK 7 FCS FORECAST