Daily Blog • Saturday, October 24th


Gameday News & Notes
Navy QB Dobbs has a small crack in his kneecap from a prior inj in HS that will have to be repaired, but he is hoping to play thru the injury and have it fixed after the season.... Both Irish losses this season have come vs true frosh QB’s....

Rich Brooks isn’t hiding his quarterback decision this week. He’s said true frosh Morgan Newton will start....S Carolina is looking to avenge last year’s loss to Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt is coming off a 34-10 loss to Georgia and South Carolina’s 20-6 loss at Alabama.... Tennessee asked for and received permission from the SEC to wear orange jerseys but Alabama rejected the request.... Vanderbilt could be without both of their starting OT’s, RT James Williams suffered a season-ending broken ankle and LT Thomas Welch has a sprained ankle.... If LSU can win out, it will make it to the SEC Championship Game.... Houston Nutt thinks Ole Miss can still make it to the SEC Championship Game. If they lose this game, not only will that dream be gone, but so might the dream of a New Year’s Day bowl.....

Penn St has scored just 69 pts in their 5 game losing streak in Ann Arbor. Paterno on Michigan Stadium: “I don’t think it’s a particularly tough place to play.” .... Indiana hasn’t won in Evanston in 16 years, and the Hoosiers haven’t won back-to-back Big Ten games in October since the 2006 season.... The second straight road game for the Hawkeyes, who have won seven of the last 11 meetings in this series.... Michigan State has won three straight in the Big Ten after starting the season 1-3.... The Buckeyes have won the last six meetings vs Minnesota....

Pittsburgh is trying to go 7-1 for the first time since 1982, when Dan Marino was the QB. To do that, Wannstedt said the Panthers must contain Daniels.... “It was refreshing to get back,” USF coach Leavitt said. “We practiced hard and we’ll put this behind us. I like the way we practiced and we’ll be ready for Pittsburgh.” Leavitt is 59-46 on television, including 11-1 on ESPN Regional, and 2-3 in weather 50 degrees or lower....WV will honor Howard with #6 on their helmets and the 2 teams will have a moment of silence at midfield. Stewart said the gameplan will not change with Smith at QB, Smith did miss 6-8 weeks from June 10 with foot injury. “This is all about Jasper Howard, about having a fallen brother, about his successful and youthful life.” — WVU Coach Bill Stewart....UConn HC Edsall said one of my sons was taken away, nothing in my job description says i have to identify bodies. Edsall not prepared with how to deal with the death, spoke to USF Leavitt who has had 3 players death since 2001... Cincinnati’s #5 ranking in the BCS standings is the highest for a Big East team since West Virginia was ranked #2 on Nov. 25, 2007....Louisville had won five consecutive games in the series before Cincinnati 28-20 victory last year....Questions have risen if Cincinnati runs the table, should they be held out of title game. Kelly says if our name was WV, Syracuse or Pitt we wouldn’t be having this conversation.... After a 2-4 start, Syracuse can be found in the conference cellar.

All but guaranteed a losing season, Akron HC Brookhart will not take the RS off anymore players....Toledo is taking on Temple, this is the first MAC meeting and Temple, looking for their fifth straight victory and another step toward its first bowl game in 30 years, come in as a 3 pt dog.... CMU’s Dan LeFevour have thrown for over 4,800 yards with 28 tds already this season and rushed for 12 scores.... d BG’s Tyler Sheeh. Buffalo is looking for its first ever win over Western Michigan. The Bulls are 0-4 all time against the Broncos....Kent State can move into a 1st place tie in the MAC East with a win if Buffalo loses to Toledo....The RedHawks are home for only the second time this year and have been outscored 248-71 in dropping the first seven games....C Michigan has trouble winning at Bowling Green, losing 8 of their last 9 games at Doyt Perry Stadium....Western Michigan lost its top two WRs in the game against Central Michigan. Juan Nunez and Jordan White both suffered sprained ankles and are questionable....

The Eagles have won the last six meetings vs Notre Dame....Georgia Tech has lost eight straight times in Charlottesville....This is the first time Maryland has faced Duke since 2004, and the first time the teams have met since the ACC expanded to 12 teams before the 2005 season.....Miami and Clemson have met twice since UM joined the ACC, with CU winning in Miami in overtime in 2004 and UM returning the favor in triple overtime in 2005....

Baylor needs to get a jump on a ranked team playing on the road in the homecoming game at Waco. A slow start by the home team would likely mean disaster.... This is the Sooners’ first since 2001 to Memorial Stadium....Historically, Colorado has dominated this series vs Kansas St 44-19-1, but the teams have split the L6 games. CU’s last win in Manhattan came in 2005, 23-20....A Big 12 North title is still very much in Nebraska’s picture, but the Huskers can’t stumble at home against the Cyclones.... Without QB Robert Griffin, Baylor stands 0-2 in the Big 12 after allowing Iowa State to snap an 11-game losing streak....The Longhorns have won the last five meetings by an average of 23.4 points, including a 56-31 romp last season vs Missouri....Texas Tech has not lost at home against Texas A&M since 1993....

Arizona QB Foles set a program mark with his completion % last week vs Stanford as he hit on 40 of 51 passes (78%). He has completed 76% of his passes this year, no other Ariz QB has finished higher than 69% for a season....UCLA has allowed only 15 fourth-quarter points in six games this year....Arizona St HC Erickson commented that he didn’t use QB Osweiler at all in last week’s game as Sullivan was playing to well to remove for any possession....The Cougars –54 yds rushing was their record worst, at least since 1957, which is when WSU began keeping the statistic....Mike Riley likes how his team is playing, but isn’t worried about lost momentum with the break. He’s confident because of the way the players practice hard and are able to focus on each game....Oregon has held 3 straight opponents to 10 points or fewer for the first time since 1980....

Tulsa has allowed 23 sacks through 6 gms, which is 4th worst in NCAA....UAB defensive gameplan is going to focus on stopping Darius Marshall & TE Cody Slate.....UCF has 4 scoring drives of 80+ yds in the last 3 games & have 16 pass plays of 20+ yds on the season after having just 12 all of last year....Houston HC Sumlin isn’t sure who will handle the placekicking duties this week. Both Ben Bell & Jordan Mannisto missed PAT’s & Bell also missed a 25 yd FG. Sumlin said they would battle it out during practice & a decision may not be made until after pre-game warm-ups....

Boise St HC Chris Petersen continues to field questions week after week as to where his Broncos should be rated & ranked, and every week he responds with the same thing in a calm voice. “I know there’s a lot of talk out there, it’s something we don’t concern ourselves with, “ Petersen said....Hawaii starting WR Rodney Bradley is out for the year with a broken leg he suffered against Idaho....Idaho currently has the nation’s best turnaround so far this season (6-1) from last year (2-10)....Utah State has lost back-to-back games by just three points falling 20-17 at New Mexico State and 35-32 to Nevada last week....

Florida Atlantic has just one victory but haven’t lost in the state of Louisiana in five visits.... ULL is 3-0 at home this season.... Troy has won four straight games and three league games in a row.


• COMPUTER AVERAGE INDIVIDUAL GAME RATINGS •

1 FLORIDA 100.24 31 MICHIGAN ST 79.75 61 S MISS 73.74 91 MARSHALL 65.92
2 TEXAS 98.82 32 LSU 79.70 62 MISSISSIPPI 73.06 92 UCF 65.54
3 ALABAMA 98.80 33 WASHINGTON 79.59 63 TROY ST 72.88 93 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 65.51
4 OKLAHOMA 93.73 34 FLORIDA ST 79.38 64 N ILLINOIS 72.74 94 SYRACUSE 65.27
5 USC 93.04 35 BOISE ST 79.29 65 FRESNO ST 72.28 95 MARYLAND 65.21
6 NEBRASKA 91.21 36 GEORGIA 78.85 66 VANDERBILT 71.03 96 WYOMING 65.18
7 VIRGINIA TECH 89.69 37 WEST VIRGINIA 78.74 67 BAYLOR 70.86 97 LOUISIANA TECH 64.49
8 TCU 88.64 38 PITTSBURGH 78.65 68 BOWLING GREEN 70.83 98 ARMY 64.31
9 OREGON 86.90 39 MICHIGAN 78.57 69 KANSAS ST 70.79 99 IOWA ST 64.23
10 CINCINNATI 86.76 40 WISCONSIN 78.53 70 MINNESOTA 70.68 100 UTAH ST 63.96
11 PENN ST 86.27 41 OKLAHOMA ST 77.69 71 COLORADO ST 70.68 101 SAN DIEGO ST 63.85
12 TENNESSEE 86.08 42 UCLA 77.46 72 OHIO U 70.48 102 UNLV 63.37
13 BYU 85.64 43 PURDUE 77.39 73 MIDDLE TENN ST 70.26 103 LOUISIANA 63.20
14 MIAMI FLA 85.48 44 SOUTH FLORIDA 77.32 74 BUFFALO 69.61 104 MEMPHIS 62.27
15 AUBURN 84.98 45 WAKE FOREST 77.16 75 W MICHIGAN 68.99 105 UAB 61.78
16 GEORGIA TECH 84.94 46 ARIZONA ST 77.05 76 IDAHO 68.71 106 AKRON 61.55
17 OHIO ST 84.62 47 C MICHIGAN 77.04 77 INDIANA 68.63 107 SAN JOSE ST 60.73
18 NOTRE DAME 84.52 48 CONNECTICUT 76.82 78 TOLEDO 68.59 108 KENT ST 58.77
19 IOWA 83.95 49 TULSA 76.22 79 COLORADO 68.43 109 UTEP 58.67
20 ARKANSAS 83.69 50 KANSAS 75.99 80 ARKANSAS ST 68.37 110 WASH ST 58.53
21 CLEMSON 83.60 51 AIR FORCE 75.63 81 LOUISVILLE 68.34 111 TULANE 58.35
22 ARIZONA 83.28 52 TEXAS A&M 75.58 82 ILLINOIS 68.29 112 MIAMI (OH) 58.18
23 S CAROLINA 82.89 53 OREGON ST 75.49 83 NORTHWESTERN 67.96 113 FLORIDA INT'L 57.29
24 CALIFORNIA 82.36 54 NEVADA 75.35 84 SMU 67.79 114 HAWAII 54.86
25 MISSOURI 81.86 55 NC ST 75.08 85 TEMPLE 67.42 115 BALL STATE 54.80
26 HOUSTON 81.17 56 BOSTON COLL 75.00 86 EAST CAROLINA 67.26 116 E MICHIGAN 54.45
27 UTAH 80.44 57 NAVY 74.96 87 RUTGERS 66.55 117 RICE 53.90
28 STANFORD 80.06 58 N CAROLINA 74.57 88 UL MONROE (NE) 66.37 118 NEW MEXICO 53.21
29 KENTUCKY 79.98 59 MISS ST 74.45 89 N TEXAS ST 66.18 119 NEW MEXICO ST 49.07
30 TEXAS TECH 79.91 60 VIRGINIA 74.16 90 DUKE 66.18 120 W KENTUCKY 38.73

 

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS FOR  SUNDAY OCT 25TH....
SAN DIEGO at KANSAS CITY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SAN DIEGO 83
260
25
2
#2
KANSAS CITY
110
220
21
1
#7
San Diego is off a humiliating loss on Monday Night where they gave up 2 special teams TD’s to Denver and the most talented team in the AFC West has basically given away the division. Kansas City basically played a perfect game last week versus Washington (4 penalties) and was helped out by 2 blunders on WAS punts late in the game to give them 2 FG’s and the win. Tomlinson has gotten very old very fast and hasn’t had a 100 yd rushing game in 11 tries and San Diego is only averaging 57.6 yards per game rushing so far this year. The key here is Rivers who has 303 yards per game passing (59%) with a 7-3 ratio versus KC’s #25 pass defense giving up a 10-3 ratio. I think San Diego gets to .500 here versus a Chiefs team that has been outscored 60-19 in the 1st and 3rd quarters combined and has yet to score a rushing TD.
PHIL’S FORECAST : SAN DIEGO 24 KANSAS CITY 10

CHICAGO at CINCINNATI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CHICAGO 77
228
23
2
#1
CINCINNATI
78
248
21
2
#26
Both teams have been hit with their share of defensive with Chicago missing 2 LB’s here and Cincinnati losing their best pass rusher in Antwan Odom (8 sacks). Cincy was caught flat last week versus Houston as they were off 3 close division wins and were emotionally spent after putting forth a huge effort for DC Zimmer. Chicago outplayed Atlanta statistically last week but turnovers in the red zone and penalties did them in. Cincy has yet to get a 100 quarterback rating game out of Palmer this year while Chicago has gotten 3 out of Cutler. I wouldn’t be surprised to see former Chicago 1st round draft choice Cedric Benson to have a good game here but I think the Bears are an under the radar team with some upside and Cincinnati’s injury situation is a concern.
PHIL’S FORECAST : CHICAGO 24 CINCY 23

 

MINNESOTA vs PITTSBURGH
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MINNESOTA 79
205
27
1
#5
PITTSBURGH
93
320
26
2
#8
Pittsburgh is in a good situation here at home for the 2nd week with a newly re-sodded field that will be exposed to the elements to make it soggy and slow for Minnesota’s #1 pass rush. Minnesota dominated a stout Baltimore team thru the 1st 3 quarters then relaxed up 27-10. Baltimore blasted their way back with two long TD drives and 33 yard drive set up by good special teams/field position play in the 4Q. Pittsburgh has had some Super Bowl hangover as they have struggled without SS Polamalu and the run game has been pretty inconsistent. I think this will be a great battle with Dick LeBeau’s schemes versus Favre’s experience but Minnesota should get enough out of Adrian Peterson to get a late second win.
PHIL’S FORECAST : MINNESOTA 20 PITTSBURGH 17

 

SAN FRANCISCO at HOUSTON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SAN FRAN 99
198
23
1
#22
HOUSTON
53
345
28
2
#3
This game features a pair of polar opposite teams in terms of philosophy and strengths. San Fran has the #29 offense and #15 defense (+5 turnovers) while Houston has the #8 offense and #19 defense (+2 turnovers). San Fran is desperate to get it’s #28 passing game on track as they will start Crabtree to get some vertical separation but I don’t have a lot of faith in his ability to be an impact player here. He will open some space for Gore versus Houston’s #24 rush defense (4.9) but I think Houston took a long look at how Atlanta exposed the San Fran secondary. Schaub is averaging 329 yards per game (67%) with a 14-4 ratio minus the Jets game and San Fran isn’t anything special in the pass rush (#21) or pass defense (#20). I think Houston takes San Fran out of its ball control element early and forces them to pass where they can get in on a QB that has been sacked once every 9 pass attempts.
PHIL’S FORECAST : HOUSTON 30 SAN FRAN 14

 

BUFFALO at CAROLINA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BUFFALO 113
105
16
2
#21
CAROLINA
205
121
21
2
#31
The Bills stole a win from the Jets last week thanks to +6 turnovers despite giving up 318 yards rushing (240 yards per game, 5.9 the last 4 weeks). They will start Ryan Fitzpatrick here and he played pretty decently coming off the bench versus the #11 defense. Carolina has plenty of tape to breakdown on him as he started 12 games for Cincinnati last year going 4-7-1 and he’ll be working behind an OL with four first year starters here. Buffalo also had 3 of 4 starters in the secondary miss practice this week. Carolina is getting back to Panther ball as both Stewart and Williams had 100+ yard games last week and they only had 4 players on the injury report this week. Carolina has beaten the #23 and #28 offenses back to back weeks and now gets the #25 offense at home after having played a full OT game.
PHIL’S FORECAST : CAROLINA 27 BUFFALO 13

 

ATLANTA at DALLAS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ATLANTA 90
233
24
0
#10
DALLAS
162
310
22
2
#9
This is a tough situation spot for Atlanta who traveled to San Fran 2 weeks ago, faced Chicago on Sunday Night Football and now start a stretch of 4 road games in the next 5 weeks. Dallas on the other hand is rested, revamped (promoting Miles Austin to #2 WR to add speed) and ready. Dallas’ big OL is a huge plus as they averaging 161 yards per game on the ground versus a smaller Atlanta DL giving up 118 yards per game rushing that doesn’t have a real NT to anchor the line due to injuries. Atlanta was outplayed by Chicago last week (outgained 373-253) and realistically should have lost the game if not for the Bears shooting themselves in the foot. Dallas gets a home win versus a good team to add credibility for the team.
PHIL’S FORECAST : DALLAS 35 Atlanta 16

 

 

 

INDIANAPOLIS at ST. LOUIS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
INDY 106
315
34
2
#23
ST LOUIS
107
188
5
2
#13
The Colts have the longest win streak in the NFL (12 wins) vs the Rams who have the longest losing streak (16 games). IND has won 4 straight after a bye week & will get back SS Bob Sanders here. This has the makings of another NE/TEN game as Manning is averaging 326 ypg (74%) with a 12-4 ratio. STL is very thin at WR here & Spagnuolo hinted that he may have to do a rotation at both LT & RT as he searches for the best combo on the line. I don’t think Bulger will get any time here & takes a huge step up from the Jaguars #30 pass defense with a 12-5 ratio to the Colts #9 pass defense that has a 8-19 ratio over the L21 games. 
PHIL’S FORECAST : INDIANAPOLIS 38 ST LOUIS 14

 

GREEN BAY at CLEVELAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
GREEN BAY 131
255
21
2
#19
CLEVELAND
113
148
14
3
#6
Cleveland has been wracked by the flu bug this week and just who they’ll have available here is uncertain. They also lost one of their best players on the team with D’Qwell Jackson landing on injured reserve. The long view of 2009 for Browns fans is that this is a 16 game preseason for 2010 as they have a lot of players growing into the system and finding their way. Green Bay beat Detroit 26-0 last week but gave up 5 sacks and they are expected to rest LT Clifton (ankle) to get him ready for the Minnesota game next week. Green Bay has plenty of firepower at QB and WR which are 2 of Cleveland’s weakest areas with 4 offensive TD’s in 12 games, a 3.9 yards per carry, and have been outscored 74-33 in the second half.
PHIL’S FORECAST : GREEN BAY 28 CLEVELAND 10

 

NEW ENGLAND at TAMPA BAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
N ENGLAND 180
263
37
1
#28
TAMPA BAY
100
95
11
2
#4
This is the 3rd year in a row the NFL will play in London. Roger Goodell wants to play 2 games there in 2010 with a team located there eventually and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it be the Jaguars. New England has a massive edge here with the #4 and #6 units (+8 turnovers) versus the Bucs #28 and #27 units (-1 turnovers). The Bucs put in a lot of effort versus Carolina last week, gave up a pair of 100+ yd rushers and won’t get here until Saturday morning meaning they will still be jet lagged (New England here Friday morning). While New England is thin at WR and RB here they have the edge with Brady versus Josh Johnson in his 4th career start and 1st versus a 3-4 defense. Bill Belichick and the Patriots have been in the media spotlight so long they’ll treat this as just another “West Coast” road trip while Tampa Bay is outclassed in virtually every aspect here.

 

PHIL’S FORECAST : NEW ENGLAND 31 TAMPA BAY 13

 

NY JETS at OAKLAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NY JETS 175
145
17
1
#11
OAKLAND
92
168
13
3
#24
This isn’t an ideal situation for the Jets who are off a tough MNF loss to Miami, a Bills loss in poor weather, travel out to the West Coast and have a rematch versus Miami on deck. The Jets turned the ball over 6 times last week versus Buffalo but rushed for 318 yards (8.0) in their loss as OC Schottenheimer admitted to forcing the ball too WR Edwards too much. The Jets took a big hit with the loss of NT Kris Jenkins (knee) and will be without #2 WR Cotchery as well. Oakland surprised Philadelphia with a short passing game on offense and went from man to man to zone coverage on defense. They are still pretty undermanned on the OL and 1 decent game by Russell this year isn’t enough to sell me on a turnaround. I have more faith in a Rex Ryan defense that has been embarrassed the last 3 weeks versus a very inconsistent OAK team.
PHIL’S FORECAST : NY JETS 17 OAKLAND 13

 

NEW ORLEANS at MIAMI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NEW ORLEANS 99
268
30
1
#27
MIAMI
135
205
22
1
#14

 

Miami is in a good spot coming in off a bye versus a non-conf foe that is off a major win and has a Monday Night Football division game on deck. On the other hand their 2 wins have been versus Buffalo and the Jets who have the #25 and #30 passing units this year and they have gone 0-3 versus good passing teams like Atlanta (#15), Indy (#1) and San Diego (#5). New Orleans has yet to play from behind at any point this year and  Brees is averaging 280 yards per game (69%) with a 13-2 ratio. They have only been outgained 1 time this year and that was versus PHI when TO’s gave them great field position. I wouldn’t be surprised to see new Wildcat plays and Miami will try to control the time of possession with the ground game. However they have in the box safeties that struggle versus the pass and 2 rookies at the top 3 CB spots and New Orleans should beat another team by 14 pts here.
PHIL’S FORECAST : NEW ORLEANS 30 MIAMI 13

 

ARIZONA at NY GIANTS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ARIZONA 25
245
23
1
#17
NY GIANTS
112
258
25
2
#29
The Cardinals went 0-5 in the regular season LY on the East Coast & beat JAX 31-17 in Wk 2. They throttled a depleted SEA team LW & took advantage of an OL that couldn’t handle their speed rushers. They get another injury depleted defense in the Giants who many say were exposed last week vs NO. The Giants didn’t play a lot of man coverage vs NO last week & were heavy into zones with little blitz pressure. They have had a very up tempo practice this week & Cardinals WR Boldin is a game time decision due to an ankle injury.
PHIL’S FORECAST :  NY GIANTS 27 Arizona 20  

 

A note from Josh Buchanan: Before I get into my picks I would like to remind everyone that I am producing weekly prospect reports on the small school players throughout the season at www.buyscouting.com for purchase.  You can also follow my weekly small school coverage at www.jbscouting.com

JOSH'S WEEK 8 FCS FORECAST