Daily Blog - Saturday, September 12th

Every Saturday I will give you my forecasts AND my computer forecasts on every NFL Sunday game for that week. I will also do a little housecleaning and get to some topics I was not able to address during the week.

Two weeks ago the upset poll we list on the site Notre Dame won a very close vote to be the ranked team that lost to an unranked team during the week. The team they beat out by a handful of votes was Florida St. As I called for on the website, Florida St was upset by Miami Florida. Notre Dame had no trouble whatsoever with Nevada. The fans just missed calling the upset and 80% of the votes were for one of those two teams.

This week the winner of the fan upset vote is Notre Dame once again. Once again I personally feel Notre Dame will win the game more comfortably than expected but the upset poll did quite well last year.

A couple of notes from this weeks reading.

The Pac 10 is 3-16 when traveling to SEC schools since 1980.

Oregon's 154 yards offense vs Boise St was their lowest total in 15 years (since 1994).

While Sam Bradford was injured on the last play of the first half and as I pointed out Monday BYU still had an impressive 245-164 yardage edge in that 1H with him IN the game, some BYU injuries went unnoticed. BYU's top returning rusher and by far their best RB Harvey Unga DID NOT PLAY! One of the leaders of their defense LB Matt Bauman was injured and missed the second half.

On Thursdays game the announcers kept talking at the end of the half of Georgia Tech's "unstoppable offense". They had ONE big play, an 83 yard TD run and the offense scored a FG. GT's special teams scored two TD's on plays that normally do not result in TD's. A fake FG punt by Clemson went for a 98 yard return TD by GT. GT also had an interception overturned in the end zone and then lined up for a FG on 4th and long. They looked like a fake FG for a punt but then they threw it for a TD. Also at the end of the game Clemson got into scoring position on a 38 yard pass and got called for a VERY questionable holding call. I watched the play 4 times and I am still looking for the hold.

Colorado is not using Tyler Hansen at QB this year they plan to redshirt him!

Marshall had RB Darius Marshall suspended the first game and they struggled to run the ball vs Southern Illinois. They get him back this week.

Interesting in the Tennessee/UCLA matchup is that Lane Kiffin worked under UCLA offensive coordinator Norm Chow for 4 years at USC. Both teams run the exact same offenses.

10-12 players on SMU were sick with the flu last week with a starting RT and CB both missing the game. QB Bo Levi Mitchell was one of the players affected and is much better this week.

MIAMI AT ATLANTA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MIAMI
122
245
29
1
#26
ATLANTA
122
240
26
2
#13

Both teams enter 2009 with the surprise factor of 2008 gone. ATL focused on revamping their defense (#24 LY)  in the offseason as they lacked speed but I don’t like CB situation. MIA brought back DE/OLB Taylor for their #15 defense (#8 sacks) but they are expected to have 2 rookies in their top 3 CB spots vs LY’s #6 offense which is improved with TE Gonzalez. This should be a close game between equally matched foes here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ATLANTA 23 Miami 20

PHILADELPHIA AT CAROLINA
Rush
Pass
Pts
TO’s
ST
PHILADELPHIA
79
225
24
2
#16
CAROLINA
125
210
25
1
#20

Inc playoffs Andy Reid is 3-1 vs John Fox with the loss being a 14-3 decision as a 4 pt HF in the NFC Championship in 2003. Both teams struggled with preseason injuries & PHI will be without both starting OG’s here. Fox admitted CAR has very little depth, lost DT Kemoeatu for the year. PHI’s DC Johnson passed away in the offseason & released FS Dawkins and a LB unit that lost MLB Bradley. Look for CAR to emphasize its ground game in a tight contest & wear down the Eagles here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CAROLINA 17 Philadelphia 16

 

MINNESOTA AT CLEVELAND
Rush
Pass
Pts
TO’s
ST
MINNESOTA
126
225
27
2
#23
CLEVELAND
66
230
16
2
#4

Eric Mangini & the Browns are thrust into the national spotlight as they take on a MIN team I believe will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl with his former QB at the Jets. CLE has opened at home every year since they returned but are only 2 wins. The Vikings have a huge edge on defense with the Williams wall vs a CLE offense with a QB with 3 starts and a rookie Center. While Favre didn’t look good in preseason that was with limited reps & he’s now got 3 weeks of work at practice & will rely on the supporting players for an easy win.  
PHIL’S FORECAST: Minnesota 23 CLEVELAND 9

JACKSONVILLE AT INDIANAPOLIS
Rush
Pass
Pts
TO’s
ST
JACKSONVILLE
118
188
21
2
#18
INDIANAPOLIS
104
300
38
2
#24

LY with an injury depleted OL the Jags came into IND in Wk 3 & stole a win with a 51 yd FG with 8 sec left. Manning was struggling with a twice operated on knee & was still catching up after missing all of the preseason. IND has made a lot of changes in the offseason but they still have their elite QB & I don’t think much will change for them. JAX will have 2 rookie OT’s vs Freeney & Mathis but I think they will be my 2nd most improved team in 2009 in the long haul. I think IND will be able to hold its own vs a JAX team that is restructuring here.    
PHIL’S FORECAST: INDIANAPOLIS 24 Jacksonville 17

DALLAS AT TAMPA BAY
Rush
Pass
Pts
TO’s
ST
DALLAS
110
223
30
2
#21
TAMPA BAY
73
205
14
2
#2

I feel that DAL will be a more focused team in 2009 but I don’t understand a lot of the moves TB has made in the offseason. The Bucs are my 10th downgraded team in 2009 mainly due to the young coaching staff & the loss of veteran leadership in the secondary. TB will field the immobile Byron Leftwich as the starting QB here & he is a sack waiting to happen vs a DAL team that pulled in 52 LY. Jerry Jones will want some momentum going into next weeks stadium opener & DAL will go up early & rely on its impressive run game to run out the clock late.
FORECAST: Dallas 23 TAMPA BAY 9

WASHINGTON AT NY GIANTS
Rush
Pass
Pts
TO’s
ST
WASHINGTON
70
183
14
1
#29
NY GIANTS
82
203
16
2
#14

Both teams went & upgraded their impressive defenses in the offseason & WAS will look to Haynesworth to shut down the Giants rush attack. NYG will be running a WR by committee approach here to make up for Burress & Toomer absences. I really like the Giants OL here as they return all 5 starters for the 3rd year in a row while WAS has some questions marks. The Giants will be without their best CB in Aaron Ross. I have WAS as my 12th most improved team while the Giants are my 7th most downgraded. I think it’ll be closer than expected but I do think the Giants have the better QB here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NY GIANTS 23 Washington 16

CHICAGO AT GREEN BAY
Rush
Pass
Pts
TO’s
ST
CHICAGO
60
200
23
3
#15
GREEN BAY
75
280
30
2
#27

Sun Night - NBC gets a great game to start the season as the NFC North appears to be one of the more exciting divisions for 2009. While CHI added QB Cutler & upgraded their OL their #30 pass defense has had their top 3 CB’s all miss time in preseason with injuries. Rodgers (2-0 ATS vs CHI 244 ypg 68% 4-2 LY) has been very impressive in preseason with 465 yds (71%) with a 6-0 ratio & 11.3 ypa!  I do like Rod Marinelli as the DL coach for CHI but GB is too potent offensively here & are my 5th most improved team. CHI is my 7th most downgraded team mainly due to their secondary & I’m not very keen on their WR situation. 

PHIL’S FORECAST: GREEN BAY 24 Chicago 17

 

KANSAS CITY AT BALTIMORE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
KANSAS CITY
53
180
13
1
#32
BALTIMORE
147
253
31
1
#31

KC, TB & BUF became the 1st teams to fire their OC’s in 11 years during the preseason. KC QB Cassel will likely be a gametime decision after an MCL sprain in preseason but with OAK on deck I would rest him rather than feed him to a brutal BAL defense. KC set an NFL record with just 10 sacks LY face a solid BAL OL that will run the ball & take advantage of a Chiefs defense that will get shown how a proper 3-4 scheme is run here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: BALTIMORE 23 Kansas City 6

DENVER AT CINCINNATI
Rush
Pass
Pts
TO’s
ST
DENVER
103
188
17
1
#30
CINCINNATI
103
263
29
1
#22

The Bengals have a big edge with the return of QB Palmer which will reenergize their offense. CIN is my 4th most improved team for 2009 as injuries devastated them. DEN has had a chaotic offseason & I really don’t understand why they let Cutler go. DEN could have the worst defense in 2009 & they brought in a lot of journeymen to fill out the defense. Orton has been cleared to go here & they will get WR Brandon Marshall back but HC McDaniels admitted that he doesn’t know the playbook. I think CIN has OL issues but DEN’s pass rush is very limited which will give CIN’s offense the time to shine here.
FORECAST: CINCINNATI 33 Denver 17

NY JETS AT HOUSTON
Rush
Pass
Pts
TO’s
ST
NY JETS
94
183
18
2
#6
HOUSTON
88
278
30
2
#10

Mark Sanchez will be the 1st rookie QB to start on opening day for the Jets since 1960 & first Jet rookie QB to start a game since 1977. Sanchez has just 16 college starts & 37 preseason pass att’s under his belt. The Jets also will be without OLB Pace & DE Ellis who combined for 15 of the Jets 40 sacks LY. I like a healthy Schaub here as he passed for 308 ypg passing (69%) at home LY with a 27.2 ppg avg. Yes Flacco & Ryan won in Wk 1 to start the season but they were facing CIN & DET at home. Look for Schaub to take advantage of a defense missing its 2 best pass rushers with Reliant Stadium’s crowd noise on his side.
PHIL’S FORECAST: HOUSTON 31 NY Jets 13

DETROIT AT NEW ORLEANS

Rush
Pass
Pts
TO’s
ST
DETROIT
41
195
19
3
#9
NEW ORLEANS
121
273
32
1
#28

The Saints clubbed the Lions LY 42-7 as Brees passed for 351 yds (75%) with a 2-0 ratio. NO posted a 532-255 yd edge as they took out their frustration at being eliminated from the playoff chase a week earlier. DET is going with Matt Stafford here in a bit of a surprise & I firmly believe that they should have waited until after their bye week when they would have gotten STL. NO has PHI on deck & DET only has 22 players from the 2008 roster here with the talent infusion making them my most improved team for 2009. Brees will get his yards but I think DET will get some garbage yardage in the 4th Qtr to make it somewhat respectable.
FORECAST: New Orleans 27 Detroit 17

SAN FRANCISCO AT ARIZONA
Rush
Pass
Pts
TO’s
ST
SAN FRANCISCO
72
215
25
1
#12
ARIZONA
61
280
31
1
#25

Mike Singletary & the 49ers took ARZ to the wire on MNF in his 2nd game as HC as he shook up the team over the bye week. ARZ took a 29-24 lead late 4Q but on 3rd & goal from the 2 SF was stuffed with RB Gore out of the game on the final play. ARZ was rather lethargic in the preseason & I wonder if they have been celebrating their Super Bowl run too long. WR’s Boldin (hamstring) & Breaston (dislocated kneecap) also have sat out most of camp. Defenses are generally ahead of offenses to start the year & while ARZ will still get their passing yardage I think will control the ball with Gore and pull an upset special here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: San Francisco 24 ARIZONA 23

ST LOUIS AT SEATTLE
Rush
Pass
Pts
TO’s
ST
ST LOUIS
117
190
11
1
#8
SEATTLE
112
223
27
1
#19

STL is undergoing a major rebuild with new HC Steve Spagnuolo as only 4 players remain on the team from the 2000-2006 drafts with 2007 1st RND DC Carriker (shoulder) on IR. QB Bulger only had 4 live preseason pass att’s before breaking the pinkie finger on his throwing hand & he is now operating in a PHI style West Coast offense which he has never run before. While STL is my 3rd most improved team for 2009 the Seahawks are my 6th most improved. I know SEA has OL issues & will be without LT Walter Jones & Ctr Chris Spencer but they have a vastly better defense, are at home with a healthy Matt Hasselbeck here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SEATTLE 27 St Louis 17

A note from Josh: Before I get into my picks I would like to remind everyone that I am producing weekly prospect reports on the small school players throughout the season at www.buyscouting.com for purchase.  You can also follow my weekly small school coverage at www.jbscouting.com. 

JOSH'S WK 2 FCS FORECAST