Saturday September 19th
Every Saturday I will give you a lot of great late information on the games
for the this week and give you my NFL forecasts as well. Keep in mind if you
missed the Top 25 Forecasts, my complete forecasts on every FBS game this
weekend or the Top QB, RB, WR, Defenses of the Week they are still available
on the site.
Wash St WR Jeshua Anderson who started the 1st two games of the year for
them has quit the team and will concentrate on track. He was the leading
returning receiver. Earlier this year the 2nd leading returning WR Kevin
Norrell was lost for the year so their top FIVE are gone from last year and
the leading WR from last year in receptions had just 6. They are also making
a change at QB going to Loebbestael over Lopina and will be without starting
G Zack Williams and WR Gino Simone due to injuries. Can SMU go to 3-0 this
year?!!!
Illinois suffered a MAJOR loss as LB Martez Wilson (PS#7) who is their top
defensive player and top returning tackler from last year is out for the
season with a neck injury.
Akron QB Chris Jacquemain has been indefinitely suspended for a violation of
team policy. There is no time table for his return.
Greg McElroy set a school record with 14 straight completions last week vs
Florida International.
Last week was the first time that Auburn gained more than 500 yards in back
to back games since 1970! That is almost 30 years!
Georgia DE Roderick Battle torn ACL is out for the year. That is the second
straight year the Bulldogs have lost a top OL AND a a top DL early in the
year.
PHIL STEELE'S NFL FORECASTS
OAKLAND AT KANSAS |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| OAKLAND |
127 |
210 |
21 |
3 |
#6 |
| KANSAS CITY |
118 |
205 |
23 |
1 |
#28 |
The Raiders were in this situation last year coming in off a MNF home game & having to face the Chiefs on the road in week 2. OAK won 23-8 & outrushed KC 300 (6.4) to 55 (2.9). Oakland’s defense got a great boost with DT Seymour on MNF last week. I am concerned that Todd Haley is doing too much right now as he’s the HC/OC & QB coach here. Matt Cassel (sprain MCL) is still up in the air & I don’t think he’ll be effective in his 1st start having missed so much time & OAK is the better team especially on special teams. I thought Oakland controlled the trenches vs San Diego and now take on a weaker foe so that domination should show on the scoreboard.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Oakland 20 KANSAS CITY 9
|
NEW ENGLAND AT NY JETS |
|
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST |
| NEW ENGLAND |
104 |
243 |
33 |
2 |
#4 |
| NY JETS |
107 |
198 |
16 |
1 |
#13 |
The Jets have lost to the Patriots 8 straight times at home by an avg score of 27-14. Rex Ryan has gone old school to try & rally the fans, calling season ticket holders to implore them to come & make noise here. The Jets are off an easy win vs a HOU team that underestimated them while the Patriots are off a MNF game vs BUF that was a special teams blunder away from upsetting them. Belichick is 5-1 vs rookie QB’s with. NE does have 5 new defensive starters & LB Mayo is out for 6 weeks min which concerns me. I did notice that NE didn’t unveil much of Fred Taylor LW (9 carries 25 yds) & think the Patriots get their play-action game going here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: New England 31 NY JETS 10 |
MINNESOTA AT DETROIT |
|
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST |
| MINNESOTA |
157 |
213 |
34 |
1 |
#22 |
| DETROIT |
38 |
228 |
13 |
1 |
#21 |
DET took MIN to the wire in both games LY losing by 2 & 4 points last year. The Vikings are 17-3 vs the Lions since 1999. Favre played well in his last game in DET posting a 127.1 QBR on Thanksgiving 2007. Stafford gets his 1st home start & played like a rookie LW as he had 205 yds (43%) with 3 int & 64 of his yards came on 1 pass to C Johnson. I wouldn’t be surprised if Peterson crosses the 225 yd rushing mark here. MIN run game & defense with a vet QB reminds me of the Steelers from the late 70’s who took care of business vs the weaker foes with big wins.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Minnesota 30 DETROIT 9 |
CAROLINA AT ATLANTA |
|
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST |
| CAROLINA |
158 |
208 |
28 |
2 |
#23 |
| ATLANTA |
133 |
225 |
30 |
1 |
#12 |
The teams split the series LY with the home team winning each game SU & ATS. Delhomme has turned the ball over 11 times in his L/22 drives & keep in mind the avg NFL game has 12 possessions. Dehomme is 9-2 vs NFC South foes & has a 16-6 TD/int ratio in those. ATL almost shut out MIA LW & have a big speed advantage on offense here. Normally games where one team is + on TO’s takes on a team that is – TO’s from LW concerns me but Ryan is 8-1 at home with a 28-19 avg score.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ATLANTA 27 Carolina 13 |
ARIZONA AT JACKSONVILLE |
|
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST |
| ARIZONA |
45 |
270 |
24 |
1 |
#30 |
| JACKSONVILLE |
121 |
228 |
28 |
1 |
#15 |
Went 0-5 on the East Coast LY & have to play a game in the upper 80’s with high humidity. They couldn’t push the ball downfield vs SF as their #2, #3 & #4 WR’s are all beat up & Fitzgerald was double teamed with rolled coverage. JAX played a very tough game vs IND LW but still gave up over 300 yds passing. ARZ did a great job of containing a bigger & more powerful Frank Gore LW (30 yds 1.4) & they have an underrated defense that is pretty fast & can blitz from anywhere. I think the Cardinals can open up here vs JAX secondary & steal a win.
FORECAST: Arizona 23 JACKSONVILLE 20 |
TAMPA BAY AT BUFFALO |
|
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST |
| TAMPA BAY |
114 |
200 |
12 |
2 |
#2 |
| BUFFALO |
98 |
265 |
31 |
1 |
#1 |
BUF is off a tough loss to NE on MNF where they blew an 11 pt lead with 5:32 left as a rare special teams blunder cost them dearly. Trent Edwards & a Bills OL with 3 new starters did very well vs a much more talented NE defense LW & take on a TB defense that has very little pass rush. TB lost Ctr Jeff Faine for 4 games & that’s a big problem for a team with a new QB & an inexperienced OC running a system he didn’t install. TB could also be without WR Antonio Bryant (83 rec 15.0) & the rest of the WR unit is unimpressive. I think the Bills use the Bucs as a get right win here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: BUFFALO 23 Tampa Bay 13 |
BALTIMORE AT SAN DIEGO |
|
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST |
| BALTIMORE |
83 |
218 |
21 |
1 |
#8 |
| SAN DIEGO |
51 |
228 |
23 |
2 |
#5 |
Both teams are off tougher than expected wins as BAL had a pair of mental errors set up 14 pts for KC. The Ravens owned the Chiefs statistically & had a 32-11 FD & 501-188 yd edge. SD was taken back a bit by the Raiders rush attack LW but adjusted allowing just 43 yds (6.1) in the 2H. SD was very vanilla in their playcalling on both sides of the ball as they didn’t want to tip their hand for this game. I am concerned that SD will be without Ctr Nick Hardwick (foot) & RG Louis Vasquez here with Tomlinson (ankle) being a question mark as well. I do like where Phillip Rivers is at with his game right now & while BAL has a great front 7 I think they are vulnerable in the secondary.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 23 Baltimore 17 |
NY GIANTS AT DALLAS |
|
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST |
| NY GIANTS |
97 |
185 |
16 |
1 |
#9 |
| DALLAS |
73 |
248 |
22 |
2 |
#14 |
DAL started off slow vs TB LW but I was impressed with how Romo spread the ball around in the game with 3 drives of 74 or more yards. The Giants had a 351-272 yd edge vs WAS with a 72 yd 7 play drive given up in garbage time. The Cowboys will open up their $1billion dollar stadium figuratively & literally as they will have the roof open here. There will be a college atmosphere here as Jerry Jones is out to set the NFL record for attendance here. DAL has a big home edge here but the Giants would love nothing better than to ruin the official opening here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NY Giants at DALLAS
|
|
HOUSTON AT TENNESSEE |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
| HOUSTON |
57 |
218 |
16 |
2 |
#7 |
| TENNESSEE |
130 |
258 |
26 |
2 |
#10 |
Tennessee has the schedule edge for their only home game in Sept with 3 extra days rest. HOU looks like a soft team after being pushed around at home by the Jets last week. Fisher is 6-2 after a loss. TEN held pit to 36 yards rushing (1.1) LW & hit Roethlisberger 12 times. I am starting to wonder about Schaub’s pocket presence & teams are going after him early to rattle him. I think the Titans will jam the Houton WR’s off their routes & Collins should do well vs a questionable Houston. PHIL’S FORECAST: TENNESSEE 24 Houston 17 |
CINCINNATI AT GREEN BAY |
|
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST |
| CINCINNATI |
48 |
223 |
14 |
2 |
#27 |
| GREEN BAY |
97 |
230 |
23 |
1 |
#31 |
CIN is off a heartbreaking loss to DEN in which the Bengals scored the go ahead TD with :38 left then DEN had a fluke 87 yd TD after a CIN CB deflected a pass & had it bounce to the DEN WR. GB is off a physical game vs CHI where Rodgers led his 1st game winning drive in the 4Q. After missing most of LY and the 2009 preseason I think Palmer is in the same boat as Peyton LW where he didn’t get up to speed until Oct. CIN’s defense does bear watching (allowed 10 FD, 75 yds rushing 3.8) LW however I think the GB pass attack is too much here.
PHIL'S FORECAST: GREEN BAY 28 Cincinnati 21 |
NEW ORLEANS AT PHILADELPHIA |
|
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST |
| NEW ORLEANS |
49 |
181 |
23 |
2 |
#17 |
| PHILADELPHIA |
107 |
225 |
31 |
0 |
#11 |
Both teams are off big wins in Wk 1. PHI dominated a CAR team as they held CAR to negative yards on 5 drives, pulled in 5 int’s while adding an 85 yd PR for a TD. Drew Brees tied a personal best with 6 TD’s LW but that was with a rebuilding since 1957 Lions defense that didn’t field its #2 CB LW. I noticed the Saints played a very basic defense LW & they will unveil more here vs a higher quality team. McNabb hasn’t practiced this week with Kevin Kolb taking most of the 1st string reps. I’m not too worried though as McNabb knows the offense inside & out & he can just walk on the field Sunday. PHI has enough playmakers to do more than just support here for the win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PHILADELPHIA 23 New Orleans 17 |
ST LOUIS AT WASHINGTON |
|
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST |
| ST LOUIS |
60 |
180 |
24 |
2 |
#20 |
| WASHINGTON |
137 |
218 |
29 |
1 |
#26 |
The Rams got their 1st win of 2008 vs WAS when they upset them 19-17 winning on a 49 yd FG with no time left. WAS had a 22-8 FD & 368-200 yd edge but had 4 TO’s to kill drives. STL has to travel for the 2nd straight week going from one end of the country to another. STL was outgained 446-247 LW with 10 penalties. WAS has a massive edge on defense here & should easily be able to contain STL’ only real weapon in Steven Jackson. Look for Clinton Portis (62 yds 3.9) to reestablish himself here.
FORECAST: WASHINGTON 20 St Louis 6 |
SEATTLE AT SAN FRANCISCO |
|
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST |
| SEATTLE |
88 |
215 |
23 |
1 |
#18 |
| SAN FRANCISCO |
78 |
238 |
21 |
1 |
#3 |
The visitor has won 5 of the L6. SEA could get LT Walter Jones & Ctr Chris Spencer back but lost SLB Leroy Hill & will be without CB Marcus Trufant here. SEA dominated one of the weakest teams in the NFL LW with a 28-0 win but Hasselbeck had 2 int’s which concerns me. SF dominated the tempo in their game LW with ARZ with defense & special teams. SEA’s injuries concern me here & while their WR unit is healthier than ARZ’s right now SF will control the clock with Frank Gore here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO 20 Seattle 14 |
CLEVELAND AT DENVER |
|
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST |
| CLEVELAND |
126 |
188 |
18 |
2 |
#24 |
| DENVER |
147 |
218 |
23 |
1 |
#32 |
CLE hung with one of the best defenses for a half LW but the talent gulf between them & MIN was readily apparent in the 2nd half. DEN had a miracle win on the longest play from scrimmage to win a game in the 4Q LW with an 87 yd tipped ball returned for a TD. Mangini & McDaniels run basically the same offensive style but CLE has a small edge on defense has they have more players equipped for a 3-4 defense. I think CLE’s special teams will make big plays here to help out the offense & the Browns get the upset here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Cleveland 24 DENVER 21 |
PITTSBURGH AT CHICAGO |
|
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST |
| PITTSBURGH |
60 |
203 |
20 |
2 |
#16 |
| CHICAGO |
48 |
250 |
21 |
3 |
#19 |
The Steelers come in with the schedule edge with 3 days rest vs a CHI team that is off a SNF road game vs GB. PIT will be without SS Polamalu (sprain knee) but CHI is without MLB Urlacher & SLB Tinoisamoa here with a secondary still in flux. I expect Cutler to rebound after tossing 4 ints vs GB LW but there is still a lot of new faces on offense & PIT has a huge defensive advantage. I do like Forte but PIT’s LB’s are ruthless vs the run (3 100 yd rushes in L83 games) & CHI’s WR’s don’t impress me. I think PIT can come in & win in a fairly close game here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Pittsburgh 28 CHICAGO 24
|
A note from Josh Buchanan: Before I get into my picks I would like to remind everyone that I am producing weekly prospect reports on the small school players throughout the season at www.buyscouting.com for purchase. You can also follow my weekly small school coverage at www.jbscouting.com.
JOSH'S WK 3 FCS FORECAST |
