TOP 25 FORECASTS WEEK FIVE
#3 ALABAMA at KENTUCKY
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST’s |
|
ALABAMA |
205 |
178 |
31 |
1.8 |
* |
KENTUCKY |
76 |
168 |
16 |
2.1 |
Last year UK was held to 35 yds rush (1.8) while UA rushed for 282 (5.8). UK’s last win over Bama was in ‘97. Last week Bama’s def held Ark’s prolific offense to just 254 yds in their 35-7 win. Tide QB McElroy is avg 235 ypg (68%) with a 7-1 ratio. Bama does have an important SEC West gm vs Ole Miss on deck. UK is facing their 2nd straight Top 10 but LW was outgained 495-179 in a 41-7 loss to UF. UK has allowed 248 ypg rush (5.4) the L/2 gms and Bama has the RB’s to take advantage (Ingram 347, 5.7 and Richardson 280, 7.4).
PHIL’S FORECAST: Alabama 27 KENTUCKY 13
#4 LSU at #18 GEORGIA
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST’s |
|
LSU |
92 |
193 |
27 |
1.4 |
– |
GEORGIA |
134 |
293 |
32 |
3.2 |
Georgia is 6-2 vs LSU. LY UGA LB Gamble ret’d 2 int 40 and 53 yds for TD in UGA’s 52-38 rout of LSU. The visitor is 5-2 SU. Georgia has won the L3 vs LSU by an avg of 44-23 CLICK HERE FOR LAST 12 YEARS MATCHUPS. QB Cox struggled last week hitting 17 of 31 for 242 yds with a 1-2 ratio, one wk after earning national acclaim for his 375 yds and 5 TD vs Ark. LSU’s running gm has struggled and they were outrushed 151-30 by Miss St LW (374-263 overall edge MSU) but got a 93 yd PR TD, a 37 yd IR TD and held MSU out of the EZ on 1st&gl at the 2 with 1:30 left to escape with a 30-26 win. LSU QB Jefferson has avg 177 ypg (61%) with a 7-1 ratio. #4 LSU becomes the latest team to be knocked out of the Top 5.
PHIL’S FORECAST: GEORGIA 27 Lsu 20
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST’s |
|
BOISE ST |
92 |
193 |
27 |
1.4 |
– |
UC DAVIS |
134 |
293 |
32 |
3.2 |
#6 VIRGINIA TECH at Duke
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST’s |
|
VA TECH |
249 |
170 |
36 |
1.5 |
***** |
DUKE |
86 |
215 |
13 |
2.8 |
LY Duke’s D forced five 1H TO’s but they were w/o QB Lewis and RB Harris and lost 14-3. Duke on the road trailed just 7-3 but VT got a 23 yd IR TD with 1:23 to clinch it. VT is off big home wins vs #19 Nebraska and #9 Miami and has BC and GT on deck. In VT’s 2 recent games here they have won by a 44-7 avg with a 403-114 yard edge (yes, Duke just 114 ypg off!) CLICK HERE FOR 12 YEAR HISTORY. Duke QB Lewis is avg 196 ypg (59%) with a 5-2 ratio. CLICK HERE FOR DUKE INDIVIIDUAL STATS FOR 2009. VT QB Taylor is avg 136 ypg pass (47%) with a 4-1 ratio and has rushed for 85 yds (2.4). RFr Ryan Williams (PS# X )has filled in nicely for the inj’d Evans and has rushed for 492 yds (5.9) and 6 rec (20.0).
PHIL’S FORECAST: Virginia Tech 30 DUKE 13
#7 USC at #24 CALIFORNIA
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST’s |
|
USC |
177 |
193 |
26 |
3.3 |
|
CALIFORNIA |
154 |
178 |
23 |
1.9 |
* |
Cal has now lost 5 straight to USC incl LY’s 17-3 loss in a gm where they were only able to collect 165 ttl yds. In their last visit to rain-soaked Berkeley, USC int’d a late Cal pass to hold onto the 24-17 win. After avg 48+ ppg through their 1st 3 gms, Cal was held to just 3 LW in Eugene as UO ran away with the 39 pt win (+5’). USC saw the return of frosh phenom QB Barkley (225 ypg, 60%, 3-1 ratio) LW vs WSU as the Trojans scored 3 TD’s in the first 12 min and coasted. Cal cant be as bad as they looked last week can they? I look for the Bears to rebound with a big upset.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CALIFORNIA 23 Usc 20
#8 OKLAHOMA at #17 MIAMI FL
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST’s |
|
OKLAHOMA |
130 |
248 |
30 |
2.7 |
– |
MIAMI, FL |
101 |
223 |
20 |
3.4 |
In the last meeting in ‘07, UM was mauled, being outgained 411-139 and outFD’d 25-7. OU is off a bye while UM just played GT and VT. UM looked very impressive up until LW (handcuffed by the Hokie def with just 209 yds) and are led by QB Harris who is avg 269 ypg (60%) with a 5-3 ratio. OU has pitched B2B shutouts vs weaker foes but did hold BYU to just 14 pts. QB Jones has filled in nicely for Bradford, avg 224 ypg (61%) with a 9-3 ratio. OU has the better def (#2-21) but the OL edge goes to the ‘Canes as they face a QB in his 1st road start in the heat/humidity of FL and need to refocus facing another tough ranked opp here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: MIAMI, FL 21 Oklahoma 20
#9 OHIO STATE at INDIANA
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST’s |
|
OHIO STATE |
165 |
195 |
29 |
2.4 |
***** |
INDIANA |
50 |
175 |
8 |
2.8 |
Half of the crowd should be in Scarlet and Gray. OSU has B2B shutouts for the 1st time S/’96 as they swamped IL 30-0 in the rain, outgaining the Illini 318-170. QB Pryor (174 ypg, 57%, 5-4 ratio, 235 rush) had 0 1H pass yds vs IL before the rain let up. Leading rusher Herron (ankle) left LW but Saine (PS#2) had OSU’s top performance by an RB TY (81 yd). Indy gave Mich all it could handle allowing the gm winning TD pass with 2:29 left as IU had a 467-362 yd edge but settled for 5 FG’s (missed 1) inside UM’s 20. QB Chappell ( 236, 65%, 3-4 ratio) may continue to grow with the emergence of a finally healthy RB Willis (PS#53) who had 152 yd vs UM. IU is #2 B10 rush D allowing 94 ypg (2.7) which is ahead of the Buckeyes. OSU shows the talent difference they have in this one.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Ohio St 34 INDIANA 6
#10 CINCINNATI at MIAMI OH
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST’s |
|
CINCINNATI |
161 |
275 |
46 |
1.1 |
**** |
MIAMI, OH |
109 |
275 |
11 |
3.4 |
MU and UC are colliding for the 114th time in the Battle for the Victory Bell (oldest non-conf rivalry west of the Allegheny). UC has won the L/3 by an avg of 25 ppg incl LY as QB Pike made his 1st start (241 yds, 3 TD’s). LW Cincy’s tired defense held on for a 28-20 win over Fresno St. Cincy was outgained 443-357, outFD’d 25-15 and FSU held the ball 44 of 60 min! Pike is avg 306 ypg (71%) with an 11-2 ratio and WR Gilyard (#8 NCAA) has 32 rec (13.8) and 6 TD’s. UC def was all’g 271 ypg prior to LW. LW Miami lost to Kent 29-19 despite outgaining the Flashes 552-250 (26-13 FD). Fr QB Dysert (PS#85) made his 1st start and threw for 337 (58%) with a 1-2 ratio and 107 rush (6.3). Prior to LW, Mia had been shutout for 10Q’s until WM’s backups came in.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Cincinnati 52 MIAMI, OH 10
#11 TCU vs SMU
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST’s |
|
SMU |
0 |
250 |
11 |
2.7 |
|
TCU |
57 |
245 |
37 |
2.5 |
** |
TCU is coming off a huge win at Clemson and now has their sights set on a MWC Title and possible BCS berth. But first, they face an old SWC rival in the battle for the “Iron Skillet.” CLICK HERE FOR LAST 12 YEARS MATCHUPS. TCU has won 8 of L/9, outscoring SMU 281-71. However, SMU has played the Horned Frogs tougher as of late incl an upset in ‘05, which was TCU’s only loss of the year. The Ponies have looked strong and if not for an OT loss (blew big lead) against Wash St, would be 3-0. June Jones’ pass happy off is avg 432 ypg with QB Mitchell avg 326 ypg (61%) but with a 6-8 ratio. Meanwhile, TCU has used a balanced off avg 217 rush/208 pass led by QB Dalton who has thrown for 625 (70%) with a 4-1 ratio. SMU has had 2 weeks to prepare, while TCU has Air Force on deck and this is a classic sandwich game. This should be much closer than last year’s 48-7 final.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TCU 30 Smu 13
#12 HOUSTON at UTEP
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST’s |
|
HOUSTON |
180 |
368 |
45 |
2.4 |
– |
UTEP |
146 |
253 |
27 |
2.5 |
– |
UTEP is 1-1 at home vs Houston with both gms decided by 3 pts. Houston is in a BCS sandwich (Miss St on deck) and is off their huge come-from-behind 29-28 win over TTech that kept their BCS dreams alive. QB Keenum scored the game-winning TD on a QB draw with :49 left. The Cougars are now ranked #12, their highest ranking S/’91. Keenum continues to put up Heisman-like numbers (387 ypg, 69%, 8-2 ratio) and RB Beall leads with 211 rush yds (4.6). True frosh RB Sims leads with 21 rec (14.1) as UH has 5 with 11+ catches. UTEP was demolished 64-7 at Texas LW, as they were outgained by an amazing 639-53! QB Vittatoe’s struggles continued as he threw 4 int and is avg 160 ypg (51%) with a 1-5 ratio. RB Buckram leads with 298 rush yds (6.5). Last year UTEP led 28-9 and 35-23 on the road but lost it late and they have the horses to pull the upset if Vittatoe returns to 2008’s form.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Houston 38 UTEP 35
#13 IOWA vs ARKANSAS ST
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST’s |
|
ARKANSAS ST |
95 |
105 |
7 |
3.1 |
– |
IOWA |
195 |
245 |
34 |
2.3 |
* |
This first-ever meeting features teams that are between conf games and off contests with the defending league champ. Iowa is off of Penn St w/Michigan next. ASU is off Troy w/ULM next. ASU was outgained 494-274 (all’d 358 pass) losing 38-9 at BCS foe Neb earlier TY. This is Iowa’s first conf sandwich game S/’06. LW ASU gave up 17 points off TO’s in a 30-27 loss to Troy and they will have to regroup quickly against a strong defense (#9). Iowa proved to be a B10 challenger with its performance at PSU in which they forced 4 TO’s, got a safety, PSU missed a FG and the Hawks returned a blk’d punt 36 yds for a TD. Iowa looked past N Iowa earlier TY (blocked 2 straight FG’s for win) and could look ahead to next week.
PHIL’S FORECAST: IOWA 34 Arkansas St 6
#15 PENN ST at ILLINOIS
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST’s |
|
PENN STATE |
155 |
203 |
26 |
2.5 |
– |
ILLINOIS |
161 |
233 |
20 |
2.7 |
– |
IL gave PSU one of their toughest games LY but the Lions won 38-24. Last week the Lions blew a 10-0 lead over Iowa and lost 4 TO’s, had a sk result in a safety and a punt blk’d for a TD. QB Clark (240 ypg, 60%, 9-6 ratio) struggled as D’s don’t respect run gm (127, 3.8). Beaten up Lions’ D hasn’t allowed a 1H TD (just 3 TY) despite all conf LB’s Lee and Bowman playing just 2 series together. IL has lost their L/5 vs FBS tms after a 30-0 shutout in a monsoon vs OSU, in which they were outgained 318-170. QB Williams is the B10’s least eff passer and he has led just one 4Q garbage time TD drive vs MO TY. Williams didn’t look 100% vs the Bucks tossing 3 int and the staff didn’t rule out a QB change after the gm. PSU has big D (#11-70) edge and rebounds while Zook’s seat continues to heat up.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Penn St 27 ILLINOIS 20
#16 OREGON VS WASHINGTON ST
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST’s |
|
WASH ST |
65 |
165 |
11 |
3.4 |
– |
OREGON |
265 |
260 |
42 |
2.6 |
* |
Surprisingly, the Ducks mauled Cal LW holding the Bears to just 3 pts (Cal was avg 48 ppg). LY UO clobbered WSU in Pullman 63-14 as the Ducks had a 507-271 yd edge, which was Coug QB Lobbestael’s 1st career start (192 yds, 54%, 2-2 ratio). CLICK HERE FOR LAST 12 YEARS MATCHUPS. WSU could be using another 1st time starter here as Fr QB Tuel took over LW in the loss to USC and ply’d well (130 yds, 64%). Oregon played at an A++ level last week and good thing for them it is only the lowly Cougars this week so a “C” game still grabs a win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OREGON 38 Wash St 10
#20 BYU vs UTAH ST
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST’s |
|
UTAH ST |
135 |
200 |
22 |
3.0 |
– |
BYU |
175 |
375 |
46 |
3.0 |
– |
PHIL’S FORECAST: BYU 43 Utah St 20
#21 MISSISSIPPI at VANDERBILT
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST’s |
|
MISSISSIPPI |
213 |
133 |
24 |
2.7 |
**** |
VANDERBILT |
133 |
158 |
11 |
2.5 |
– |
LY UM had 6 TO’s, but still had a 1&gl at the 7 but fmbl’d into the EZ and lost 23-17, despite a commanding 385-202 yd edge making this a legitimate revenge situation. UM was held to 248 total yds by SC and QB Snead hit just 7-21 for 107 yds. Snead has had a slow start to the ssn avg just 164 ypg (49%) with a 6-2 ratio. UM has an important SEC West gm vs Bama on deck making this a sandwich spot. Vandy outgained Rice 484-282 and the def grabbed 4 int. UM needs to get their offense back on track and UM’s #8 D should shut down Vandy’s #98 off.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Mississippi 27 VANDERBILT 10
#22 MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN ST
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST’s |
|
MICHIGAN |
175 |
158 |
29 |
2.4 |
* |
MICHIGAN ST |
146 |
283 |
30 |
2.6 |
– |
In ‘07 Mich escaped 28-24 here and after UM RB Hart made his infamous “Little Brother” comments. LY MSU was favored for just the 2nd time S/’67 and won in Ann Arbor for the 1st time s/’90, 35-21. CLICK HERE FOR LAST 12 YEARS MATCHUPS. UM had won 6 in a row prior, incl L/3 in E Lansing. Mich survived Indy as true frosh QB Forcier hit his 2nd gm winning TD pass TY with 2:29 left and the Wolves hung on thanks to a controversial int as IU had the yd edge (467-362). Forcier (168 ypg, 62%, 7-2 ratio) hasn’t been 100% the L2W (ribs, shoulder) and this is his 1st road start. Wolves’ D has struggled allowing 34 ppg and 479 ypg vs 2 BCS conf foes TY. MSU had B10 title dreams in Aug but are now 1-3 after LW’s misleading 38-30 loss in which the Spartans scored 2 TD in L/2:16. Both QB’s played with Nichol (PS#7) throwing 2 late TD’s but also 2 int and the spot remains in flux. MSU has allowed 300 pass ypg (69%) with a 10-2 ratio to FBS tms. Call for Michigan to grab an important win on the road and stay unbeaten.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Michigan 28 MICHIGAN ST 24
#25 GEORGIA TECH at MISS ST
Rush |
Pass |
Pts |
TO’s |
ST’s |
|
GEORGIA TECH |
251 |
110 |
28 |
1.8 |
– |
MISSISSIPPI STATE |
154 |
195 |
21 |
3.0 |
– |
MSU is 0-3 vs GT and LY’s 38-7 loss by MSU was their worst loss to a non-conf opp S/‘69. MSU hasn’t defeated a non-conf BCS opp S/’00. LY GT lost starting QB Nesbitt after only 8 plays but still had 500 yds off (438 rush) while MSU had 407 with 4 TO’s. Miss almost upset LSU as a 13 pt HD. MSU had a 374-263 yd edge and had a 1st and goal at the LSU2 with 1:30 left, but LSU held on and escaped with the 30-26 win. GT is off a dominating 24-7 win over #18 NC in which they had 317-17 rush (406-154 total yd), 24-8 FD and 42:06-17:54 TOP edges. Both tms have faced 3 tough def the L/3W, so this could be higher scoring than expected. GT has faced a much tougher schedule (#15-73). The Jackets nab the win in SEC country
PHIL’S FORECAST: Georgia Tech 30 MISSISSIPPI ST 20