Daily Blog • April 14th, 2010	Blog Archives

In Monday’s Blog, I analyzed which method of determining who plays the toughest schedule is more accurate; mine or the NCAA. I compared the preseason predictions of both and concluded that my method is superior because it takes two major factors into account. The first is my 9 sets of Power Ratings. This ensures that an FCS team like William & Mary who was 11-3 last year is rated much lower than Oklahoma which was 8-5 in 2009. The second factor is the amount of home and away games played. As an example, this year some teams will have as many as 8 home games, while others play as many as 8 on the road.

Today’s blog will take a closer look at the toughest schedule debate by looking at this year’s opponents’ win/loss record from the 2009 season.

At the beginning of the season, the NCAA usually releases a rating of each team’s schedule based on their opponents’ win/loss record from the previous season. This is a good method but it does have its obvious flaws.

The first flaw is basing the ratings on opponents’ records from the previous season. Let’s look at a couple of examples. At the start of 2007 I had Illinois rated as one of the top teams in the Big Ten and they went on to knock off #1 Ohio St and play in the ROSE BOWL. My ratings had them as an above avg opponent at the start of the year and they finished the regular season #13 (AP). Using 2006’s record as the criteria for determining the strength of an opps’ schedule, however you would count them as a 2-10 team!

The second flaw is basing it on pure overall records. If a team plays a FCS (IAA) school that was 11-1 in 2007, that would have counted as a MUCH tougher game in the NCAA ratings than facing a team like Alabama who was 7-6 in ‘07 but #1 at the end of ‘08 regular season! My ratings had Bama ranked as a much tougher team than an FCS foe.

Below is a chart of all 120 teams and the combined 2009 opponents’ records from last year. It is ranked in order of highest % of opponent wins (or toughest schedule) to lowest % of opponent wins (or easiest schedule). This is the same chart that will be printed in this year's college preview magazine.

2010's Opponent Winning %

(Based on 2009 Records)

		Foe	Foe	Foe	Tms W/
Rank		Wins	Losses	Win %	Win Rec
1	LSU	98	56	63.64%	9
2	Minnesota	96	55	63.58%	8
3	Iowa St	97	56	63.40%	9
4	S Carolina	98	58	62.82%	11
5	Miss St	96	57	62.75%	9
6	N Carolina	97	60	61.78%	9
7	Virginia Tech	95	59	61.69%	8
8	Duke	94	60	61.04%	8
9	San Jose St	100	65	60.61%	8
10	Pittsburgh	92	60	60.53%	8
11	Wyoming	91	60	60.26%	6
12	Miami, Fl	92	61	60.13%	9
12	Auburn	92	61	60.13%	9
14	Washington St	91	61	59.87%	10
15	Alabama	84	57	59.57%	8
16	Tennessee	91	62	59.48%	8
17	Texas A&M	91	63	59.09%	8
18	USF	89	62	58.94%	8
19	Illinois	90	63	58.82%	7
19	Oregon St	90	63	58.82%	8
21	NC State	91	64	58.71%	9
22	Syracuse	81	57	58.70%	7
23	Oklahoma	90	64	58.44%	8
23	UCLA	90	64	58.44%	8
25	UNLV	97	69	58.43%	9
26	Penn St	88	63	58.28%	6
27	Michigan	87	63	58.00%	6
28	Georgia Tech	87	64	57.62%	7
29	Vanderbilt	89	66	57.42%	10
30	Washington	88	66	57.14%	9
31	Louisville	86	65	56.95%	8
32	Iowa	86	66	56.58%	7
32	Notre Dame	86	66	56.58%	6
32	Florida St	86	66	56.58%	7
32	New Mexico	86	66	56.58%	7
36	Mississippi	85	66	56.29%	8
37	Temple	87	68	56.13%	7
38	Miami, Oh	86	68	55.84%	7
39	Connecticut	83	66	55.70%	7
40	Arkansas	84	67	55.63%	7
41	Florida	86	69	55.48%	9
42	Baylor	83	67	55.33%	5
42	West Virginia	83	67	55.33%	7
44	Texas Tech	84	70	54.55%	8
45	Rutgers	81	68	54.36%	7
46	Arizona St	81	69	54.00%	8
47	Oklahoma St	82	70	53.95%	5
47	Kansas St	82	70	53.95%	8
47	Virginia	82	70	53.95%	8
50	Louisiana Tech	83	71	53.90%	7
51	Colorado	82	71	53.59%	7
52	Arizona	80	70	53.33%	7
53	Marshall	82	72	53.25%	8
54	Tulane	80	71	52.98%	8
55	Memphis	81	72	52.94%	7
56	Michigan St	78	70	52.70%	4
57	Ohio St	80	72	52.63%	6
58	Toledo	81	73	52.60%	7
59	Maryland	79	72	52.32%	7
60	Texas	80	73	52.29%	7
61	Northwestern	78	72	52.00%	5
62	Nebraska	78	73	51.66%	6
62	Colorado St	78	73	51.66%	7
64	Rice	79	74	51.63%	6
65	California	77	73	51.33%	8
66	Georgia	78	74	51.32%	7
67	Nevada	84	80	51.22%	6
68	Stanford	76	73	51.01%	6
69	Fresno St	77	74	50.99%	5
69	Bowling Green	77	74	50.99%	5
71	Air Force	76	74	50.67%	6
71	Utah	76	74	50.67%	6
73	East Carolina	77	75	50.66%	7
73	Utah St	77	75	50.66%	6
75	TCU	75	74	50.34%	7
76	Kansas	77	76	50.33%	6
76	Wake Forest	77	76	50.33%	7
76	SMU	77	76	50.33%	6
79	San Diego St	75	75	50.00%	6
79	Cincinnati	75	75	50.00%	7
81	Southern Miss	74	75	49.66%	6
82	BYU	74	76	49.33%	6
82	WKU	74	76	49.33%	5
84	Indiana	73	75	49.32%	5
85	Louisiana	74	77	49.01%	6
86	Navy	73	76	48.99%	4
87	USC	80	84	48.78%	6
88	Hawaii	79	83	48.77%	6
89	UAB	73	79	48.03%	7
89	Boise St	73	79	48.03%	6
91	Kentucky	72	78	48.00%	7
91	Florida Atlantic	72	78	48.00%	4
93	Wisconsin	71	77	47.97%	3
94	Idaho	78	85	47.85%	5
95	Clemson	72	79	47.68%	7
96	Tulsa	72	80	47.37%	6
97	Missouri	71	79	47.33%	5
98	ULM	70	78	47.30%	6
99	Ball St	68	78	46.58%	4
100	FIU	69	80	46.31%	4
101	C Michigan	69	81	46.00%	6
102	Boston College	68	80	45.95%	4
103	Kent St	68	81	45.64%	5
104	Oregon	68	82	45.33%	7
104	New Mexico St	68	82	45.33%	4
106	Purdue	67	81	45.27%	3
106	Houston	67	81	45.27%	6
108	Arkansas St	67	82	44.97%	4
109	E Michigan	67	83	44.67%	4
110	UCF	66	82	44.59%	4
111	North Texas	65	83	43.92%	3
112	Army	65	84	43.62%	4
113	Akron	64	84	43.24%	5
113	Troy	64	84	43.24%	4
115	W Michigan	64	85	42.95%	4
116	N Illinois	63	85	42.57%	4
117	Ohio	62	85	42.18%	4
118	UTEP	59	89	39.86%	4
119	Middle Tenn	58	89	39.46%	2
120	Buffalo	59	91	39.33%	6

Using last year's records for their opponents, LSU plays the toughest schedule this year with their opponents having 63.64 win % last year. Overall LSU faces 9 teams that had a winning record in '09. The Tigers open up in the Georgia Dome against North Carolina and also play West Virginia in non-conf play. In SEC play they have to travel to Auburn, Florida and Arkansas who all won at least 8 games in '09.

Minnesota's 2010 opponents had a combined 63.58% win % in '09. The Gophers hsave to travel to Middle Tennessee (10-3 in '09) in the opener and also play USC in non-conferennce action. In conference play Minnesota gets Penn St, Ohio St and Iowa at home with road games at Wisconsin and Michigan St. The Gophers avoid Indiana and Michigan who were a combined 2-14 in conference play last year.

South Carolina plays 11 teams that had a winning record in 2009 while Middle Tennessee only plays two teams. According to their opponents win/loss record Purdue plays the easiest schedule (#106) among BCS schools while San Jose St (#9) plays the toughest schedule among non-BCS schools.

Again these are not my toughest schedule rankings so let’s pick out some teams to show you the flaws of just using last year’s overall opponent records. Based on 2009’s opponent records San Jose St plays the 9th toughest schedule. While they do play at Alabama, Wisconsin and Utah in non-conference, they also play two FCS foes in Southern Utah and UC Davis who were a combined 11-11 last year. The Spartans also play in the WAC conference, which will only have one Top 25 team at the start of the year. Does this sound like the #9 toughest schedule to you? Despite the three tough non-conference road games, I know a few BCS schools that would like to play 10 non-BCS teams this season.

According to their opponents win/loss record from 2009 Temple plays the 37th toughest schedule while Oregon takes on an easy #104 slate. Oregon’s cupcake schedule has them facing all 9 Pac-10 foes including road games at Cal, USC and Oregon St and an early non-conf road game at Tennessee. Meanwhile the Owls in addition to their MAC schedule get Villanova and Connecticut at home in non-conference with road games at Army and Penn St. Do you think Temple’s schedule is 67 spots tougher than Oregon’s?

Here are some other interesting tidbits when looking at who plays the toughest schedule…

Teams that faced the most ranked opponents in 2009 (ranked when played)

6-Alabama, Oklahoma and Oregon

5-Georgia Tech, Miami, Fl, Vanderbilt, Mississippi St, Michigan, Nebraska, Virginia, Oregon St, USC, Arkansas, South Carolina, Washington St, Indiana and USF

Teams that faced the fewest ranked opponents in 2009 (ranked when played) Bowl Teams

1-Akron, Toledo, North Texas, Hawaii, Eastern Michigan, Temple, Kansas St, Florida Atlantic, ULM, Marshall, Houston, Pittsburgh and Idaho

0-Buffalo, Ohio, Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, UAB, Army, Ball St, Kent St, Middle Tennessee and WKU

Teams that faced the most ranked opponents in 2009 (ranked at season’s end)

6-Florida St
5-Alabama, Virginia, Oklahoma, Arizona, Georgia Tech. Michigan St and Mississippi St

Teams that faced the fewest ranked opponents in 2009 (ranked at season’s end)

1-Eastern Michigan, Temple, Florida Atlantic, ULM, Houston, Ohio, Idaho and North Texas

0-UAB, Army, Ball St, Central Michigan, Middle Tennessee, Kent St, Western Michigan, WKU and Southern Miss

There were three teams did not face a ranked opponent either at the time the game was played or at season’s end. (Army, Central Michigan and WKU)

Southern Miss faced two opponents (Kansas #20 and Houston #15) that were ranked when the game was played but none at season’s end.

Florida St played just three opponents that were ranked at the time of the game (BYU #7, Georgia Tech #22 and Florida #1) but ended up playing six teams that finished in the AP Top 25 (Florida #3, BYU #12, Georgia Tech #13, Miami, Fl #19, Clemson #24 and West Virginia #25).