PRESBYTERIAN at WAKE FOREST
|
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
PRESBYTERIAN |
40 |
167 |
7 |
3.9 |
|
WAKE FOREST |
326 |
302 |
47 |
1.9 |
|
|
These two teams have not met since 1945. Presbyterian is off their 2nd losing season (0-11 LY) in a row with both coming since they moved from Division II to FCS. They do return 15 starters including their leading rusher, passer, and receiver on offense. Defensively they should be improved as they welcome back 8 of their top 9 tacklers from a defense that allowed 40.1 ppg. Meanwhile Wake Forest returns just 13 starters and loses QB Riley Skinner and 4 of their top 6 tacklers. Wake will be transitioning back to more of an option offense this year, which should take pressure of the passing game where the returning QB’s have 0 career attempts. The Demon Deacons were just 5-7 a year ago but had 5 losses by 3 points or less. Last year Wake beat a very solid FCS Elon team 35-7 at home as they outgained the Phoenix 426-263. Presbyterian also played Elon last year but were dominated 41-7 as Elon had 30-6 FD and 614-91 yd edges. Wake HC Grobe is 4-0 vs FCS teams here with the avg score being 33-9. Look for more of the same here.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : Wake forest 45 Presbyterian 7
|
SE MISSOURI ST at BALL ST |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
SE MISSOURI ST |
148 |
112 |
14 |
2.6 |
|
BALL ST |
263 |
267 |
37 |
2.7 |
|
|
SE Missouri St returns 13 starters from last year’s 2-9 team and are led by former New Mexico St HC Tony Samuel. The Redhawks averaged just 21.8 ppg offensively last year but do return QB Matt Scheible who threw for 1,596 yds (49.6% 11-13). Ball St went just 2-10 a year ago but were -7 in TO’s and had 4 net closes. This year the Cardinals return 18 starters and are a legit MAC West Contender with RB MiQuale Lewis 871 (4.8) back for a 5th year. SE Missouri St has been outscored by a 61-4 avg in their L/4 games against FCS teams but all of those came against BCS schools. The Redhawks have fared a little better against MAC schools being outscored 32-16 in their last 6 games. Last year Ball St lost to FCS New Hampshire and HC Stan Parrish has made sure his team has not forgotten that loss by adopting a “live and learn” motto, by making SEMO its primary focus this entire fall camp. Unlike last year, the Cardinals get off to a strong start.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : BALL ST 38 SE MISSOURI ST 10 |
RHODE ISLAND at BUFFALO |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
RHODE ISLAND |
83 |
142 |
16 |
2.4 |
|
BUFFALO |
228 |
227 |
38 |
2.7 |
|
|
First meeting since 1959. Rhode Island has had 13 losing seasons in the last 14 years including 8 straight and their 1-10 record LY (worse since ’99) included just 1 loss by 7 pts or less. This year they should be improved with 16 returning starters and have no major coaching changes for the first time in 3 years. Meanwhile Buffalo is in their 1st year under new HC Jeff Quinn who was the OC/OL coach at Cincinnati the last 3 years. Quinn has been the interim HC in two bowl games and steps into a good situation here with 14 returning starters including FS Davonte Shannon who is a 3-time 1st Tm MAC selection and will be looking to become just the fourth player in MAC history to be named 1st-Tm all four years. My only concern with the Bulls this year is the switch from the spread offense after being a dominating rush team under Gill and they could struggle early especially with non-conf games against Baylor, UCF and Connecticut on deck. Last year Buffalo crushed FCS Gardner-Webb 40-3 with a 508-214 yd edge. Buffalo is just 2-9 in home openers since joining the FBS in 1999 but get their 3rd win here over a Rhode Island team that is a year or two away from being more competitive.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : BUFFALO 45 RHODE ISLAND 17 |
TOWSON at INDIANA |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
TOWSON |
126 |
145 |
23 |
2.8 |
|
INDIANA |
204 |
335 |
45 |
2.1 |
|
|
This is the first meeting between these schools as Towson opens up with a FBS opp for the 3rd straight year (0-2, outscored by a 44-14 avg). The Tigers were just 2-9 last year and did not place a single player on the All-Colonial Athletic teams. Towson struggled finding consistent play at the QB position as 5 different QB’s played extensively (4 started) and this year the top 4 return along with 15 other starters on offense and defense in HC Rob Ambrose’s 2nd year. Indiana last year got off to a 3-0 start but a controversial 36-33 loss to Michigan sent them reeling to a 4-8 record. This year the Hoosiers should be more potent offensively with 9 returning starters including their top QB, RB and WR. Defensively the Hoosiers have several question marks with just 4 returning starters from a defense that gave up 29.5 ppg and 401 ypg. While Indiana has won 8 straight home openers by an avg score of 35-14, the Hoosiers have struggled with FCS teams recently including a pair a close victories (19-13 over E Kentucky LY and 35-31 over Nicholls St in ’05) and a 35-28 loss to Southern Illinois in ’06. Indiana should be more focused this year especially with a bye on deck and Towson has a long way to go to being competitive in the CAA let alone against BCS schools.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : INDIANA 49 TOWSON 21 |
SE LOUISIANA at TULANE |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
SE LOUISIANA |
119 |
200 |
27 |
1.0 |
|
TULANE |
171 |
255 |
35 |
2.8 |
|
|
These two schools are less than 50 miles apart and the Green Wave are 4-0 all-time vs the Lions including a 28-21 victory in ’05 and a 35-27 win in ’07. SE Louisiana is fresh off their 1st winning season since joining the Southland Conference in 2005. This year the Lions return 16 starters but lose their top rusher and QB. They do bring back 9 defensive starters including 3 of their top 4 tacklers and bring in one of the best recruiting classes in the FCS. Tulane has had 7 straight losing seasons and went just 3-9 a year ago. This year they return 7 starters on offense but lose their top RB in Andre Anderson who ran for 1,016 yds (4.3) and their top WR Jeremy Williams who had 1,113 rec yds (13.3). Defensively they return just four starters from a unit that allowed 36.7 ppg last year (most since 2001) and lost their top two tacklers. Since 2001, Tulane is 7-0 vs FBS schools with an avg score of 36-21 but have won their last 3 all by 10 points or less. This looks like another difficult year for the Green Wave but they do get the win here in a close one.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : TULANE 35 SE LOUISIANA 27 |
E WASHINGTON at NEVADA |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
E WASHINGTON |
63 |
275 |
24 |
1.1 |
|
NEVADA |
327 |
295 |
44 |
1.8 |
|
|
These two teams were both members of the Big Sky Conference from 1984-91 and Nevada owns a 7-1 series edge. Last year the Eastern Washington went 8-4 making the FCS playoffs (lost 1st round) and this year they have made national news by taking a page out of Boise St’s handbook as the Eagles have installed red turf at their newly named stadium. They do return just 10 starters and lose Big Sky Offensive POY in QB Nichols but add in SMU transfer Bo Levi Mitchell who started 19 gms and has 4,590 career pass yds but only a 36-33 ratio. On defense the Eagles return 5 starters but one of them is JC Sherritt who is one of the best defensive players in the FCS (#2 Buchanan Award) with 170 tackles last year. Sherritt though will have his hands full trying to keep up with Nevada’s high-powered rushing attack which led the FBS in rush yds last year avg 345 ypg (7.4!). This year the Wolfpack return one of the NCAA’s most dangerous offensive players in QB Colin Kapernick who needs just 94 rush yards to become the 2nd QB in WAC history to have 3,000 yds rush/3,000 yds pass in his career (Beau Morgan, AF ’94-’96). The Wolfpack also return RB Vai Tau who led with 1,345 yds (7.8). Nevada is 7-2 in home openers (2 L’s vs BCS tms) and has won their L/5 vs FCS schools by an avg of 49-12. While Eastern Washington is no stranger to playing FBS schools (6 gms in the L/4 yrs) they have given up 40+ in five of those games and face one of the best offenses in the country here.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : NEVADA 48 E WASHINGTON 27 |
SAMFORD at #20 FLORIDA ST |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
SAMFORD |
40 |
118 |
6 |
1.5 |
|
FLORIDA ST |
246 |
338 |
42 |
2.3 |
|
|
This is only the 2nd meeting between these schools (1st was in 1950, FSU won 20-6) but they do have a recent tie-in as new Florida St HC Jimbo Fisher was a QB at Samford in 1987 and was the OC from 1991-’92. Meanwhile Samford is coached by former Auburn AA QB and Heisman winner Pat Sullivan who enters his 4th year here. Last year the Bulldogs went 5-6 including a heartbreaking loss to UCF where they had a 24-21 lead in the 4Q and had a 286-282 yd edge. This year they return 15 starters including their all-time leading rusher Chris Evans who will try to eclipse 1,000 yds for the the 4th straight year. Defensively the Bulldogs have 7 starters back from a unit that allowed just 284 ypg and 17.5 ppg last year and could be one of the best in the FCS this year. On the other side, it will be kind of odd not seeing Bobby Bowden walking the sidelines as he did for 34 years at FSU but Fisher does step into a good situation with 9 starters back on offense and Christian Ponder figures to be one of the top QB’s in the country. Defensively, the Noles were awful last year allowing 435 ypg and 30 ppg but this year bring in Mark Stoops who spent the last 6 yrs as the DC at Arizona under his brother Mike. Florida St should be on alert as they trailed FCS Jacksonville St late LY but scored twice in the final :35 to escape with the win. While the Seminoles will want to make an early statement under the new regime, they do have Oklahoma on deck and Fisher has sentimental value with his former school.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : FLORIDA ST 45 SAMFORD 10 |
EASTERN ILLINOIS at #9 IOWA |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
E ILLINOIS |
-10 |
85 |
0 |
1.5 |
|
IOWA |
195 |
270 |
34 |
2.2 |
|
|
Eastern Illinois is our pick to win the Ohio Valley conference. They have 15 starters back from last years 8-4 playoff team including their top 5 tacklers from a D that allowed just 21.3 ppg. They do lose Iowa transfer Jake Christensen at QB. Iowa is a legitimate Big Ten and national title contender with 8 starters back from a D that allowed just 277 ypg and allowed Georgia Tech just 155 yards in the bowl. They have a veteran QB in Ricky Stanzi and our #13 rated special teams. Last year Iowa opened with FCS Northern Iowa and had Iowa St on deck. They needed TWO blocked FG's at the end to escape with a 17-16 win and were actually outgained 329-354. The previous two openers vs FCS they won 41-7 over a solid Montana in 2006 and 46-3 over Maine in 2008. After last years scare they should be more focused for this even with Iowa St off a bowl. Bob Spoo is in his 23rd year and uses these games as paycheck games. In the last 4 years vs FBS foes they have lost by an average of 45-11 and been outgained 516-265 and that included a couple of non-BCS teams. This year Iowa fans won’t be sweating out the opener.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : IOWA 38 E ILLINOIS 0 |
WEBER ST at BOSTON COLLEGE |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
WEBER ST |
-9 |
198 |
9 |
2.8 |
|
BOSTON COLLEGE |
254 |
253 |
33 |
1.6 |
|
|
Weber St went 7-5 LY making it to the FCS playoffs but 2 of their losses came against FBS teams Wyoming (29-22) and Colorado St (24-23) and they easily could have won both if not for a -6 TO deficit. This year the Wildcats return 7 starters on offense including 3-yr starter Cameron Higgins who has thrown for 9,762 yds and 83 TD’s in his career. They do lose their all-time leading rusher, their top WR (NFL DC) and their top 2 OL so the offense may struggle early. Defensively they return 6 starters from a unit that allowed 21.7 ppg LY and return their top 2 tacklers. Boston College meanwhile returns 14 starters from LY’s 8-5 team and offensively are led by RB Montel Harris 1,457 yds (4.7). The Eagles have my #13 rated OL and feature one of the best OT’s in the entire country in Anthony Castonzo. Defensively, the Eagles have my #2 set of LB’s and welcome back 2008 ACC DPOY Mark Herzlich after battling back from cancer. His replacement Luke Kuechly had 158 tkls LY as a frosh. The Eagles are 11-2 in home openers (only losses to GT & WF) and have outscored their last 4 FCS opp’s by an avg of 36-4. While Weber St has been very competitive in the last 4 games vs FBS teams (outscored by an avg of 32-21), this one will not be as close especially with the emotional return of Herzlich.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: BOSTON COLLEGE 38 WEBER ST 14 |
COASTAL CAROLINA at #25 WEST VIRGINIA |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
COASTAL CAROLINA |
12 |
98 |
0 |
2.9 |
|
WEST VIRGINIA |
314 |
233 |
44 |
1.8 |
|
|
The Chanticleers have been playing football since just 2003 and are the only Big South Conference team in its history to make the FCS playoffs (conf now has automatic bid TY). HC Dave Bennett is the only coach they have had and he enters his 8th year at the helm (50-29). Coastal Carolina returns 16 starters from LY’s 6-5 team and will be contenders in the BSC this year. Offensively, they lose their leading rusher but bring back their top 2 QB’s and WR’s. On defense they return 9 starters including their top 3 tacklers from a D that gave up 25.5 ppg. West Virginia also returns 16 starters including All-American candidate RB Noel Devine who ran for 1,465 yds (6.1) LY. The Mountaineers will be starting a new QB TY in Geno Smith (PS#4) but he has a lot of talent and there should be no drop-off. 9 starters return from a defense that gave up 21.7 ppg and all three defensive units rank in my top units in front of the magazine including their DL (#14). WV is 10-1 in home openers and Coastal Carolina is 0-3 all-time vs FBS teams (outscored 133-13). While the Mountaineers struggled in their opener vs FCS Liberty LY (33-20), they should be more focused this time around and will get an easy win.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : W VIRGINIA 44 COASTAL CAROLINA 0 |
RICHMOND at VIRGINIA |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
RICHMOND |
93 |
120 |
19 |
1.0 |
|
VIRGINIA |
92 |
260 |
28 |
3.8 |
|
|
These will be the 30th all-time meeting between these two schools (UVA 25-2-2) who are just 66 miles apart. This game is all about new Virginia coach Mike London who was the HC at Richmond the L/2 years (24-5) and won the FCS title in 2008. He is a Richmond grad and played for the Spiders from 1979-82. London isn’t the only former Richmond HC on the staff as his DC Jim Reid was the HC there from 1995-2003. On the other side new Richmond coach Latrell Scott is just 34 years old but was the Virginia WR’s coach LY and knows the Cavaliers personnel as well. The Spiders return just 7 starters this year and while talented, they will find it tough matching their 11 wins from LY. Virginia returns just 12 starters and lose their top 4 rushers including QB Jameel Sewell who also passed for 1,848 yds (53.8%, 7-7). Defensively, the Cavaliers gave up 26.3 ppg LY and bring back 3 of their top 5 tacklers including CB Ras-I Dowling who is one of the top CBs in the country. Richmond is 2-3 in their L/5 games vs FBS teams including a 24-16 win over Duke LY in the opener while Virginia dropped their home opener 26-14 to FCS William & Mary LY. This year will be different as London knows the strengths and weaknesses of all the Richmond players and the Cavs get the win even with USC on deck.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : VIRGINIA 24 RICHMOND 14 |
SOUTH DAKOTA at UCF |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
SOUTH DAKOTA |
85 |
178 |
17 |
2.1 |
|
UCF |
221 |
328 |
39 |
1.4 |
|
|
South Dakota is just in its 3rd year of transitioning from Div II to the FCS and this will be their first ever game against a FBS school. The Coyotes play in the Great West and were 5-5 LY. HC Ed Meierkort has done a tremendous job transitioning the program as they have not had a losing season in six years! This year they return 11 starters including RB Chris Ganious who ran for 828 yds (5.6). They do lose QB Noah Shepard who threw for 2,451 yds (63.3%, 21-10). On defense they return just 5 starters but do welcome back the top 5 tacklers from a year ago. UCF is my pick to win the CUSA East Division this year as they return 15 starters including DE Bruce Miller who is the NCAA’s active leader in career sacks with 27 (13 in ’09). UCF is 11-3 in home openers as an FBS member including 8-0 vs FCS (avg score 33-16 ) In LY’s opener they trailed FCS Samford 21-13 but rallied for a 28-24 win. Look for the Knights to be much more focused this year even with a home game against NC State on deck.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : UCF 38 SOUTH DAKOTA 13 |
SACRAMENTO ST at STANFORD |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
SACRAMENTO ST |
45 |
173 |
16 |
1.6 |
|
STANFORD |
271 |
368 |
52 |
2.2 |
|
|
Stanford is 4-0 all time vs Big Sky opp’s (all vs Montana, L/gm 1948). The Hornets were 5-6 LY, including a 38-3 loss to UNLV in which they were outgained 466-228. This year they return 12 starters and welcome back RB Bryan Hilliard (1,908 career yds) who had to sit out last season after shoulder surgery. On defense they return 7 starters including their top 4 tacklers but did give up 433 ypg and 33.7 ppg a year ago. Stanford returns 15 starters from last year’s bowl team (1st since ’03) but lose Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart who ran for 1,871 yds (5.5). The do have QB Andrew Luck back who many pro scouts feel is among the top 2 pro-style QB’s in the country. Defensively, the Cardinal must improve after allowing 26.5 ppg and 403 ypg LY. Stanford has not played a FCS school since their shocking 20-17 loss to UC Davis in 2005 which cost the Cardinal a bowl game and Sacramento St is 0-7 vs FBS schools since ’04 (outscored by a 41-5 avg). Expect Luck to carve up a Hornet secondary that gave up 287 pass ypg and 66.9% a year ago.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : STANFORD 51 SACRAMENTO ST 13 |
WOFFORD at OHIO |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
WOFFORD |
256 |
35 |
22 |
2.4 |
|
OHIO |
184 |
245 |
33 |
2.6 |
|
|
First meeting between these schools as the Terriers went 3-8 LY (1st losing ssn since ’01), which included losses to USF (40-7) and Wisconsin (44-14). Last year they were a classic Turnovers =Turnaround team as they went from 9-3 (+11 in TO’s) to 3-8 (-10 in TO’s). They also suffered a lot of injuries and had to play 11 true frosh with 4 of them earning starts on defense alone. This year they return 17 starters in HC Mike Ayers 23rd year and will be one of the most improved teams in the FCS with the added experienced depth. Speaking of most improved teams, last year Ohio was my #2 most improved team and they didn’t disappoint as they went from 4-8 to 9-5 and bagged another MAC East title. This year they return 12 starters but lose their leading rusher, passer and receiver. Defensively they return LB Noah Keller (155 tkls LY) who will contend for MAC DPOY this season. Ohio has lost back-to-back home openers but that came against bowl teams Central Michigan and Connecticut. They have won six straight vs FCS schools (avg score 34-13) including a 28-10 win over Cal Poly LY (430-251 yd edge). The interesting match-up in this game will be Wofford’s option offense (avg 270 ypg LY) vs one of the MAC’s best DL (NT’s avg 316 lbs). Naturally Ohio HC Frank Solich knows the option well and expect the Bobcats to pull away late.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : OHIO 35 WOFFORD 21 |
ELON AT DUKE |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
ELON |
74 |
245 |
21 |
0.8 |
|
DUKE |
131 |
275 |
28 |
2.6 |
|
|
These two schools are just 40 miles apart but have not met since 1926 (Duke 5-0-1). LY the Phoenix were 9-3 including a 35-7 loss to Wake Forest but did make the FCS playoffs. This year they return 13 starters including QB Scott Riddle who threw for 3,345 yds (64.9%, 23-7) and their top 5 rushers. They do lose a great player in WR Terrell Hudgins who led the FCS with 1,633 (13.3, 16 TD) and was a 3-time 1st Tm SoCon selection. Defensively the top 3 tacklers return from a defense that allowed just 13.2 ppg and 248 ypg. Duke returns 15 starters from a team that flirted with their first bowl since 1994 but came up just short. While they must replace a 2-time All-ACC QB in Thaddeus Lewis, whoever starts at QB will have plenty of weapons surrounding him including WR Donovan Varner (1,047 yds, 16.1 LY). Duke is just 1-5 in their L/6 home openers including a 24-16 loss to FCS Richmond LY which ended up costing them a bowl berth. Couple that with Elon being one of the best teams in the FCS (we have them #6), the Phoenix should have the Blue Devils’ full attention here.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : DUKE 28 ELON 21 |
STEPHEN F AUSTIN at TEXAS A&M |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
STEPHEN F AUSTIN |
17 |
228 |
16 |
2.6 |
|
TEXAS A&M |
254 |
408 |
48 |
2.7 |
|
|
First meeting since 1935 between these schools that are only 120 miles apart. The Lumberjacks are fresh off a 10-3 season in which they advanced to the quarterfinals of the FCS playoffs. This year they return 13 starters including QB Jeremy Moses who threw for 4,124 yds (68%, 40-21) LY and was the Southland Co-POY. They do lose their top two rushers and top receivers from an offense that avg 34.8 ppg. Defensively they return 8 starters including their top 2 tacklers who combined for 250 tkls, 18.5 tfl and 10 pbu a year ago. Their defense will be tested against an explosive Texas A&M offense which returns 7 starters from a unit that avg 32.8 ppg. The Aggies are led by QB Jerrod Johnson who threw for 3,579 yds (59.6%, 30-8) a year ago and has plenty of weapons surrounding him including my #4 set of WRs. On defense, the Aggies return 9 starters including All-American cand Von Miller who led the NCAA LY with 17 sacks. Prior to last year, the Lumberjacks had been outscored by an avg of 47-8 in their 3 games vs FBS teams but in LY’s opener they led SMU by 9 in the 4Q before losing 31-23 (outgained 460-355). This year will be a different story as the Aggie offense rolls throughout.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : TEXAS A&M 49 STEPHEN F AUSTIN 23 |
GRAMBLING ST vs LOUISIANA TECH |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
GRAMBLING ST |
120 |
118 |
22 |
0.9 |
|
LA TECH |
196 |
333 |
48 |
2.2 |
|
|
This will be the first meeting between these schools that are only 5 miles apart and is the inaugural “Port City Classic” which will be played in Shreveport. Grambling St returns 14 starters fro last year’s 7-4 team including RBs Frank Warren and Cornelius Walker who combined for 1,571 yds (5.6) and make up the best backfield in the SWAC. Defensively they return 7 starters from a unit that gave up 26.6 ppg (worst since 2004). The Tigers did suffer a huge loss this fall camp as FCS 1st Tm AA DE Christian Anthony suffered a heart attack and will not play this season. Louisiana Tech welcomes in new coach Sonny Dykes who will be installing a spread offense similar to the one at Texas Tech. The Bulldogs do return LY’s starting QB in Ross Jenkins who threw for 2,095 yds (59.3%, 17-5) but he has been in a heated battle with Sr Steven Ensminger who has thrived working in the new offense. Louisiana Tech crushed FCS Nicholls St 48-13 (558-274 yd edge) LY and have outscored their L/4 FCS opp’s by an avg of 37-17 while Grambling has lost their L/5 gms vs FBS tms by an avg of 46-12 and with the loss of their star will struggle against a high-octane offense.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : La tech 49 grambling 17 |
NICHOLLS ST at SAN DIEGO ST |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
NICHOLLS ST |
143 |
53 |
12 |
3.1 |
|
SAN DIEGO ST |
208 |
383 |
50 |
1.8 |
|
|
First meeting between these two schools as the Colonels have to travel 1,567 miles and the kickoff will be at 10:00 CST for them! Nicholls St plays in the Southland conference and returns 9 starters from LY’s 3-8 team. This do have a new HC in Charlie Stubbs as they are switching from a spread offense to a multiple pro set offense which usually takes a team a few years to adjust fully. Stubbs has been the OC at Oregon St, Memphis, UNLV, Alabama and Louisville and he will coordinate the offense here as well. Defensively they return just 4 starters from a defense that allowed 38.8 ppg a year ago. San Diego St is looking for their first winning record since 1998 as they return 16 starters including 2-year starting QB Ryan Lindley who threw for 3,054 yds (54.7%, 23-16). The Aztecs have one of the best assistant coaching staffs in the country with former Auburn OC Al Borges and former New Mexico St HC Rocky Long serving as the DC. Defensively they improved significantly last year as the ppg went from 37.2 to 30.5 and the ypg went from 461 ypg to 382 ypg. LY Nicholls St opened with Air Force and lost 72-0 as they gave up 474 rush yds. Outside of that game and a 56-7 loss to Nebraska in ’06, the Colonels have been respectable vs FBS teams including a 16-14 win at Rice in ’07 and a 35-31 loss to Indiana in ’05. San Diego St is just 2-3 in home openers and were upset in ‘08 by FCS Cal-Poly and were outgained by 104 yds. However, Nicholls St with just 9 returning starters, a new HC and new schemes, will not be able to stay close in this one.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : SAN DIEGO ST 45 NICHOLLS ST 10 |
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF at UTEP |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
ARK PINE BLUFF |
45 |
138 |
14 |
3.1 |
|
UTEP |
281 |
393 |
50 |
2.2 |
|
|
UTEP will be just the 2nd FBS opponent Arkansas-Pine Bluff has played in its history (lost 20-17 vs New Mexico St in’07). The Golden Lions are member of the SWAC conference and return 14 starters from last year’s 5-5 squad including QB Josh Bourdreaux. Defensively 6 starters are back from a unit that allowed 24.6 ppg but loses their top 5 tacklers. UTEP meanwhile returns 12 starters from last year’s disappointing 4-8 season. They are led by 3-year starting QB Trevor Vittatoe and one of the nation’s best RB’s in Donald Buckram who ran for 1,594 yds (6.2) and 18 TD’s a year ago. Defensively the unit has improved each of the past two seasons but still allowed 33.5 ppg and 447 ypg LY and do lose their top 2 tacklers. UTEP is just 1-3 in home openers but two of those losses came against Texas and Texas Tech. They have played just two games against FCS opponents in the past five years and have outscored them by an avg 49-6. UTEP HC Mike Price usually has his team playing well early in the year so expect the Miners to look impressive here as my computer calls for a 674-183 yd edge.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : utep 44 arkansas-pine bluff 6 |
NORTHWESTERN ST at AIR FORCE |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
NORTHWESTERN ST |
58 |
80 |
2 |
3.3 |
|
AIR FORCE |
342 |
210 |
44 |
1.4 |
|
|
Northwestern St was 0-11 a year ago and two of the losses came against Houston (55-7 outgained 538-263) and Baylor (68-13 outgained 567-248). This year the Demons return 10 starters including 7 on offense. Offensively, they have nowhere to go but up after avg just 14.4 ppg a year ago and should be better with the top 2 QB’s back. Defensively, they allowed 36.5 ppg and lose their top 4 tacklers. They will have their hands full here against a Falcon rush attack that avg 283 ypg a year ago. While the Falcons return just 5 starters on offense, they do have all their key skill position players like QB Tim Jefferson, FB Jared Tew and RB Asher Clark back. Defensively, the Falcons gave up just 15.7 ppg and 288 ypg LY and have 4 All-MWC players returning. Air Force has opened up against a FCS opp in each of the L/3 yrs and have outscored them by a 49-3 avg including LY’s 72-0 win over Nicholls St (576-151 yd edge). This one won’t be as ugly but expect the Falcons to roll.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : AIR FORCE 55 NORTHWESTERN ST 0 |
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FLORIDA A&M at #13 MIAMI, FL |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
FLORIDA A&M |
20 |
73 |
2 |
2.2 |
|
MIAMI, FL |
276 |
368 |
51 |
3.4 |
|
|
From 2002-’08 Florida A&M avg just over 5 wins a season prior to HC Joe Taylor’s arrival. Taylor has done a tremendous job here as the Rattlers have finished with solid 9-3 and 8-3 seasons in his first two years. This year they return 13 starters but must replace the MEAC OFF POY in QB Curtis Pulley who also was the Rattlers’ leading rusher last year (881, 7.2). The Hurricanes are my pick to win the ACC this year as they have my #6 rated defense and QB Jacory Harris has my #8 set of receivers to throw to. These two teams did meet last year as Miami cruised to a 48-16 win with a 470-262 yd edge and led 31-3 at HT. Including LY, UM has outgained FAMU by 298 ypg the last four meetings and Miami is 3-0 in openers under Shannon. In their L/6 matchups vs FCS opp, Miami has won by an avg of 58-13 but they do have having the huge showdown against Ohio St next week and will likely sit their starters late in the game.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : Miami 38 Florida A&M 3 |
HAMPTON at CENTRAL MICHIGAN |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
HAMPTON |
93 |
140 |
10 |
1.2 |
|
C MICHIGAN |
212 |
245 |
34 |
2.0 |
|
|
This will be the inaugural meeting vs a FBS program for Hampton. The Pirates after going 31-5 from ’04-’06 have been “average” the past three seasons with a 17-16 record including 5-6 LY which snapped their string of 12 straight winning seasons. This year the Pirates return 16 starters in HC Donovan Rose’s 2nd year bur they do lose 1st Tm MEAC RB LaMarcus Coker who rushed for 1,027 yds (5.2) last year. Central Michigan lost several key players that have helped them win 3 MAC titles in the last four years including record-setting QB Dan LeFevour. The Chippewas also lost HC Butch Jones to Cincinnati and welcome in Dan Enos who has never been a HC or coordinator at the FBS level. Central is changing schemes on both offense and defense and have been far from dominant against FCS foes recently. Excluding last year’s 48-0 win over Alcorn St, the Chippewas are 4-1 in their last 5 games against FBS foes but have only out-scored their opp by a 34-31 avg (419-417 yd edge). This one will not be that close but don’t be surprised if the Chippewas struggle early.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : C MICHIGAN 35 HAMPTON 10 |
MURRAY ST at KENT ST |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
MURRAY ST |
-1 |
95 |
4 |
2.8 |
|
KENT ST |
261 |
245 |
38 |
3.1 |
|
|
This is the 1st meeting between the Racers and Golden Flashes. Murray St went 3-8 last year and have not had a winning season since 2004. This year they bring in new HC Chris Hatcher who was fired from Georgia Southern after going 18-15 in 3 seasons. The Racers return just 4 starters from an offense that avg just 13.4 ppg last year when you take away the 66 pts vs a Div-II team. On defense they return 7 starters but lose 1st-Tm OVC DE Austen Lane who was their highest ever draft choice (#5DC JAX). Kent St returns 15 starters from a team that flirted with bowl eligibility LY (2 net close losses). The Flashes got a big boost when one of the MAC’s best RBs Eugene Jarvis was granted a 6th year. Kent St is 8-1 in their last 9 openers with all the wins vs FCS opp’s (loss vs Minnesota in ’06, 44-0) and have outscored their opp’s by an avg of 30-9. Kent is one of the most improved teams in the country this year and will get off to a great start here with a convincing win.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : KENT ST 35 MURRAY ST 7 |
NORFOLK ST at RUTGERS |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
NORFOLK ST |
40 |
122 |
11 |
2.4 |
|
RUTGERS |
206 |
267 |
39 |
2.0 |
|
|
In their only prior meeting, Rutgers manhandled Norfolk St 59-0 (’07) with a 537-122 yd edge. The Spartans went 7-4 last year including winning their final four games. This year they return 14 starters including RB DeAngelo Branche who rushed for 922 yds (5.3). Norfolk St does have to replace their two-year starting QB in Dennis Brown who threw for 2,228 yds (56.7%, 18-13). I will admit Rutgers let me down last year despite winning 9 games (4th consecutive season w/8 or more wins). This year the Scarlet Knights return just 12 starters and lose 5 of their top 6 tacklers. They do return some fine young talents in Soph QB Tom Savage who threw for 2,211 yds (52.3%, 18-11) and Soph WR Mohamed Sanu who had more than 1,000 all-purpose yds last year as a true Frosh. Rutgers has dropped back-to-back home openers but that came against FBS bowl teams in Fresno St and Cincinnati. The Scarlet Knights have outscored the last six FCS opp’s by a combined 278-20 (46-3 avg) and will roll again over a solid FCS team. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : RUTGERS 45 NORFOLK ST 7 |
NORTH DAKOTA at IDAHO |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
NORTH DAKOTA |
81 |
170 |
20 |
2.8 |
|
IDAHO |
154 |
350 |
35 |
2.4 |
|
|
The first and only meeting between these two teams occurred in 1954 (Idaho won 54-0). The Fighting Sioux are just in their 3rd year removed from Division II and went 6-5 last year. North Dakota has had 8 straight winning seasons and return 15 starters in HC Chris Mussman’s 3rd year. The offense is led by QB Jake Landry who threw for 1,968 yds (59.1%, 12-9) and the defense returns its top 4 tacklers from a year ago. Idaho had suffered 9 straight losing years heading into last year but had an amazing season going 8-5 and won their bowl game. This year they return 14 starters including QB Nathan Enderle who threw for 2,906 yds (61.5%, 22-9) last year and has the attention of several NFL scouts with his size (6-5 227). The Vandals also return 10 starters on a defense that can only improve after allowing 433 ypg and 36 ppg last year. Idaho has won 4 straight Kibbie Dome openers and have won their last three vs FCS schools by an avg of 30-21 after losing their previous four (3 came against FCS power Montana). Meanwhile North Dakota is playing just their 2nd FBS school ever (13-38 LY vs Texas Tech). With an experienced QB under center and an improved defense, the Vandals continue their positive momentum from last year with another win in their home opener.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : IDAHO 35 NORTH DAKOTA 21 |
VILLANOVA at TEMPLE |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
VILLANOVA |
206 |
117 |
27 |
1.7 |
|
TEMPLE |
185 |
287 |
28 |
2.2 |
|
|
These two cross-town rivals play for the Mayor’s Cup and Temple has dropped 3 straight to Villanova (12-15-2 all-time). Last year the Owls blew a 10 pt 4Q lead as the Wildcats won with a FG as time expired. Villanova used that big early win to springboard them to a dream season as they finished 14-1 and captured their 1st FCS Championship. This year they return 15 starters including QB Chris Whitney (64.4%, 18-5) and versatile athlete Matt Szczur who was a #5DC of the Chicago Cubs this year but decided to play football another year. Temple is my pick to win the MAC this year as they return 16 starters from last year’s team which ended 18 straight losing seasons and made their first bowl appearance since 1979! The Owls return RB Bernard Pierce who ran for 1,361 yds (5.8) as a true frosh and welcome back 4 starters on the MAC’s best OL that averages 317 lbs. On defense the Owls have my #1 DL in the MAC and are led by DT Muhammad Wilkerson who is on the Outland Award watch list. This game will probably come down to the 4Q just like last year but I give edges to Temple on both sides on the LOS and they avenge last year’s loss and take home the Cup for the first time since 1979!
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PHIL’S FORECAST : TEMPLE 28 VILLANOVA 21 |
YOUNGSTOWN ST at #19 PENN ST |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
YOUNGSTOWN ST |
4 |
48 |
0 |
1.6 |
|
PENN ST |
307 |
273 |
51 |
2.6 |
|
|
Just the second meeting between these two schools that are 190 miles apart. In their last meeting (’06), Penn St dominated with a 568-184 yd and 26-10 FD edges as the Lions cruised to a 37-3 win. This year will be the 4th straight year the Penguins open with a FBS opp (outscored by a 40-3 avg) and they will be entering their 1st season under new HC Eric Wolford. Youngstown does return 13 starters from last year’s 6-5 team but will be breaking in a new QB and RB. Expect to see plenty of new faces as Wolford has said that if it comes down to 2 players at a position, he will go with the younger one as they try to build for the future. Speaking of young players, Penn St will have a 1st-time starter under center as 2-time 1st Tm Big Ten QB Daryll Clark graduated. The Lions do welcome back RB Evan Royster who ran for 1,169 yds (5.7), their top 2 WR’s and a should have a stronger OL this year. Defensively, they return just 5 starters and lose their top 3 tacklers who all played LB and were drafted but have plenty of VHT’s waiting to get their chance. Penn St has avg 59 ppg the L/2 years vs FCS teams but with a new QB, I expect the Lions to not be as efficient early on.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : PENN ST 42 YOUNGSTOWN ST 3 |
S CAROLINA ST at #16 GEORGIA TECH |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
S CAROLINA ST |
48 |
125 |
12 |
2.4 |
|
GEORGIA TECH |
337 |
230 |
46 |
1.2 |
|
|
South Carolina St is our pick to win the MEAC this year as they return 14 starters from a team whose only losses LY were to South Carolina (38-14 w/only a 377-326 yd deficit) and in the FCS playoffs to Appalachian St. This year the Bulldogs bring back 2nd Tm MEAC QB Malcolm Long who threw for 2,502 yds (64.5%, 20-10). They do lose their leading rusher and receiver but have a very strong OL led by LT Johnny Culbreath who has a ton of NFL potential. Defensively they return 6 starters from a team that allowed just 15.6 ppg LY including just 98 rush ypg (2.6). That rush defense will clearly be tested when they take on a Georgia Tech triple option offense that avg 295 ypg (5.2) and return 1st Tm All-ACC QB Joshua Nesbitt who passed for 1,701 (46.3%, 10-5) and rushed for 1,037 (3.7). On defense they return 8 starters but lost their stars in DE Derrick Morgan (#1DC TEN) and Morgan Burnett (#3DC GB). The Yellow Jackets are 17-3 in home openers and have played 4 FCS games the L/4 years vs Samford and Jacksonville St and outscored them by an avg of 46-13 (449-238 yd edge). South Carolina St is 0-5 vs FBS schools the L/3 years losing by an avg score of 45-4 and despite being one of the best teams in the FCS (we have them #21), will find it tough going here.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : GA TECH 38 S CAROLINA ST 13 |
JACKSONVILLE ST at MISSISSIPPI |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
JACKSONVILLE ST |
90 |
|
9 |
2.0 |
|
MISSISSIPPI |
246 |
243 |
34 |
3.0 |
|
|
This game features two former Arkansas HC’s as Jacksonville St HC Jack Crowe coached the Razorbacks from 1990-91 (1 game in 92) and Mississippi HC Houston Nutt from 1998-2007. Jacksonville St is one of our favorites in the Ohio Valley Conference as they return 13 starters from last year’s 8-3 squad that lost two games to FBS schools in Georgia Tech (37-17) and Florida St (19-9) a game in which Jacksonville St actually led late until FSU scored 2 TD’s in the final :35. This year they do lose OVC OPOY QB Ryan Perriloux (LSU Transfer) who threw for 2,350 yds (58.5%, 23-2!) and two other all-OVC players but do return their top two rushers and a couple of All-Conf OL. Defensively, they allowed just 17.1 ppg LY but do lose their top two tacklers. Ole Miss returns just 10 starters from LY’s 9-4 team but do bring in former Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli. On defense, the Rebels return just 4 starters but 2 of their top 3 tacklers are back and NT Jerrell Powe is one of the top DT’s in the country. Ole Miss is 12-3 in home openers and 6-0 vs FCS schools the L/5 yrs. Excluding LY’s 52-6 win over SE Louisiana, the Rebels have not been dominant in the other games vs FCS tms winning by an avg of 33-14. On the other side Jacksonville St has been competitive vs the FBS losing by an avg of 33-16. With new starters at several key positions look for the Rebels to struggle early before pulling away late.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : MISSISSIPPI 34 JACKSONVILLE ST 9 |
UC DAVIS at CALIFORNIA |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
UC DAVIS |
7 |
168 |
9 |
2.7 |
|
CALIFORNIA |
239 |
318 |
43 |
1.4 |
|
|
This is the first meeting between these schools since 1939 as Cal owns a 8-0 all-time mark vs the Aggies (avg 37-3). UC Davis had 37 straight winning seasons from 1970-2006 but are just 16-18 the L/3 seasons. They are coached by Bob Biggs who enters his 18th year here. They return 14 starters including 8 on offense but lose 1st Tm Great West Conference QB Greg Denham and their top 2 WR’s. Defensively, they lose 2 of their top 3 tacklers from a defense that gave up 27.3 ppg a year ago. Cal also returns 14 starters but unlike UC Davis return their QB Kevin Riley who passed for 2,850 yds (54.7%, 18-8) and their leading rusher and receiver. Defensively they return 6 starters but lose 5 of their top 7 tacklers (top 2 return) from a D that gave up 379 ypg and 25.5 ppg. LY Cal beat a good FCS Eastern Washington team 59-7 with a 507-235 yd edge and the Bears are 3-0 vs FCS teams under Tedford (avg score 47-9). UC Davis put forth a solid effort at Boise St LY losing 34-16 but did lose 51-0 to Fresno St being outgained 511-231. The Aggies have been competitive over the past several years vs FBS teams including a 20-17 win over Stanford in 2005 but don’t expect any upsets here. |
PHIL’S FORECAST: CALIFORNIA 45 UC DAVIS 7 |
WESTERN CAROLINA at NC STATE |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
W CAROLINA |
26 |
125 |
10 |
1.4 |
|
NC STATE |
204 |
345 |
42 |
2.7 |
|
|
This is the 6th all-time meeting between these two schools (NCSt 5-0 avg score 48-11) that despite being in the same state are nearly 266 miles apart. The Catamounts play in the tough Southern conference and were just 2-9 LY which included a 45-0 loss to Vanderbilt in which they were outgained 620-115! This year they return 13 starters including their top QB, RB and WR. The offense has nowhere to go but up after averaging just 14.1 ppg. On defense, they return just 5 starters and lose their top 3 tacklers from a D that allowed 25.9 ppg and 381 ypg. NC State has 7 starters back on offense including QB Russell Wilson who was 1st Tm ACC in ’08 and LY set the NCAA record for most passes without an INT with 379! Defensively they return just 5 starters and lose 5 of their top 6 tacklers from a unit that gave up 31 ppg (most since 1996!) and 361 ypg. The Wolfpack actually played 2 FCS teams LY in Murray St and Gardner-Webb and easily dispatched both outscoring them by a combined 110-21 and outgained the two opp’s by a combined 712 yds. With Western Carolina a year or two away from being competitive even in the SoCon, this game will not be close.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : NC STATE 45 W CAROLINA 7 |
UT MARTIN at TENNESSEE |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
UT MARTIN |
67 |
143 |
9 |
2.6 |
|
TENNESSEE |
174 |
323 |
45 |
2.0 |
|
|
First meeting between these two schools who despite being in the same state are 321 miles apart! The Skyhawks are members of the Ohio Valley Conference and were 5-6 LY. This year they return just 11 starters and lose 2-year starting QB Cade Thompson (South Carolina transfer). Last year’s defense allowed 29.4 ppg but return their top 3 tacklers. Tennessee begins the Derek Dooley era as the Volunteers have their 3rd HC in 3 seasons. Due to having three different HC’s who have 3 very different styles, the Vols have seen a lot of attrition and may be under 70 scholarship players TY. Two QBs are vying to win the starting job and it looks like Matt Simms PS #20 and son of NFL great Phil Simms will win the job and make his first start here. He does have several weapons at the WR/TE position including WR Gerald Jones and TE Luke Stocker plus the Vols added a couple of VHT true frosh. On defense, the Vols have just 5 starters back due to the loss of DE Ben Martin to injury. While Tennessee is 59-5-2 vs current FCS teams, they have not played one since 1983. UT Martin is 0-7 vs FBS teams since 2007 (avg score 42-9) but were competitive against Auburn in ’08 (37-20). Expect Tennessee to come out fired up in Dooley’s home opener but they do have #11 Oregon and #4 Florida on deck.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : TENNESSEE 45 UT MARTIN 10 |
STONY BROOK at USF |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
STONY BROOK |
48 |
130 |
7 |
2.1 |
|
USF |
272 |
265 |
41 |
1.6 |
|
|
This will be the first time Stony Brook has played a FBS opponent in its history (program started in 1969.) The Seawolves have had just 5 winning seasons since moving up from Div II in 1999 and have recently moved to the Big South Conference. This year they return 10 starters from a 6-5 team that would have went to the FCS playoffs if the conf had the automatic bid like they do TY. They do bring back QB Michael Coulter who threw for 2,060 yds (54.8%, 15-10) as well as their top RB and WR. The Seawolves also added 2 FBS, 2 FCS and 3 JC transfers which will help with some of the key losses especially defensively where they must replace 2nd Tm AA and BSC DPOY Tyler Santucci. USF ushers in the Skip Holtz era as he steps into a great situation with 15 returning starters including dynamic QB BJ Daniels who as long as he remains healthy will be one of the top QB’s in the Big East. The Bulls played two FCS teams last year and outscored them by a combined 99-7 (outgained them by 507 yds). USF does have a road game at Florida on deck but should coast here.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : USF 38 STONY BROOK 7 |
TENNESSEE TECH at # 17 ARKANSAS |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
TENN TECH |
2 |
118 |
8 |
2.4 |
|
ARKANSAS |
269 |
388 |
54 |
1.6 |
|
|
Tennessee Tech plays in the Ohio Valley conference and LY had their 1st winning season since 2004 (6-5). This year they return 16 starters including their top RB and WR and defensively bring back 9 starters including 9 of their top 10 tacklers. Expectations are high at Arkansas this year as the Razorbacks return 17 starters (#1 SEC) including 10 on offense. QB Ryan Mallett returns for another year after throwing for 3,624 yds (55.8%, 30-7) and he has my #1 set of WR’s to throw to. Defensively they return 7 starters from a defense that did give up 401 ypg. The Golden Eagles are 0-4 the L/2 years vs FBS teams and have been outscored by an avg of 45-6 (outgained by avg of 500-147). Arkansas did struggle in Petrino’s debut here two years ago vs FCS Western Illinois (28-24) but LY beat Missouri St 48-10 (591-205 yd edge). My computer projects a 657-120 yd edge for the Razorbacks here as Mallett and Co put up huge numbers.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : ARKANSAS 52 TENN TECH 10 |
SAM HOUSTON ST at BAYLOR |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
SAM HOUSTON ST |
78 |
158 |
14 |
2.6 |
|
BAYLOR |
258 |
343 |
49 |
2.0 |
|
|
These two have met just twice despite being only 136 miles apart. In their last meeting (’03) Baylor won 27-6 but had just a 335-287 yd edge and the FD’s were even. This year the Bearkats welcome in new HC Willie Fritz who comes from Central Missouri where he compiled a 97-47 record in 13 seasons. Fritz inherits just 9 starters and must replace his leading rusher, passer and receiver on offense. Defensively, they are in better shape as they return 6 of their top 7 tacklers but did give up 33.7 ppg and 423 ypg LY. Baylor may have went to their first bowl since 1994 LY had QB Robert Griffin not been lost for the season early. This year they get Griffin back but have just 12 returning starters. Baylor has whipped up on fellow Southland conf member Northwestern St in 3 of the L/4 years by an avg score of 55-10 while the Bearkats have played at least one FBS school each of the L/5 yrs and have gone 0-6 (avg score 50-9). Expect more of the same here.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : BAYLOR 49 SAM HOUSTON ST 7 |
NORTH DAKOTA ST at KANSAS |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
N DAKOTA ST |
162 |
133 |
23 |
2.6 |
|
KANSAS |
184 |
268 |
37 |
1.8 |
|
|
In 2006-07 North Dakota St was a combined 20-2 with 3 wins over FBS teams! However, the last two years with full FCS eligibility the Bison are just 9-13 (0-2 vs FBS schools avg score 25-15). This year they return 11 starters including 5 on offense but lose RB Pat Paschall who ran for 1,397 yds (6.7) a year ago. Defensively, the Bison allowed 28.6 ppg and 361 ypg, which easily were their worst numbers since 2002. This year expect some improvements especially with 3 of their top 4 tacklers back. The Turner Gill era begins for Kansas as the Jayhawks welcome back 13 starters. They do lose the talented trio of QB Reesing and WRs Briscoe and Meier which helped them win a combined 20 games in ’07-’08. This offseason has been tough on the Jayhawks as they lost RT Jeff Spikes and LB Huldon Tharp to season-ending leg injuries. Kansas is 17-2 in their home openers since 1991 including LY’s 49-3 win over FCS Northern Colorado (547-246 yd edge). The Bison opened up with Iowa St LY and despite a 34-17 loss they were only outgained 442-388. With youth at the key skill positions for Kansas, the Bison’s recent history against FBS schools, and a home game against Georgia Tech on deck, this game could be close until late.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : KANSAS 41 NORTH DAKOTA ST 24 |
TEXAS ST at HOUSTON |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
TEXAS ST |
93 |
195 |
17 |
2.6 |
|
HOUSTON |
267 |
485 |
55 |
2.3 |
|
|
Houston is actually 0-3 vs the Bobcats but the last game was in 1948. Texas St is fresh off their first back-to-back winning seasons since ’90-‘91 and returns 11 starters. Offensively they do lose their QB Brandon George who was the Southland Conf OPOY. They also lose their top 2 rushers and two 3-year starters on the offensive line. They do add in UTEP transfer Andy McCloud at QB and signed true frosh Tyler Arndt (PS#61). Defensively, they return 7 starters from a unit that has seen its ppg and ypg allowed improve over the past 3 seasons. Houston meanwhile features one of the most potent offenses in the country led by Heisman candidate QB Case Keenum who has a chance to become the NCAA’s all-time passing leader this season. He has a bevy of weapons surrounding him including my #3 set of WRs in the country. Defensively, they return 6 starters including LB Marcus McGraw who was #3 in the FBS LY with 156 tkls. Houston has beaten FCS Southern and Northwestern St the L/2 years by an avg of 55-5 and outgained them by an avg of 577-258. Texas St lost 56-21 to TCU LY (outgained 508-249) and my computer is calling for Houston to have 752 yds of offense (UH had 750 vs Southern Miss LY)! Look for Keenum’s Heisman candidacy to get off to a great start as the Cougars roll.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : HOUSTON 55 TEXAS ST 24 |
SOUTHERN UTAH at WYOMING |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
SOUTHERN UTAH |
76 |
190 |
23 |
2.4 |
|
WYOMING |
239 |
250 |
33 |
1.7 |
|
|
Wyoming has won 19 straight vs current FCS opp’s but this is the first between these schools. Southern Utah has had just one winning season in the last 9 years but they have slowly been improving the last couple of years. This year they return 14 starters from a 5-6 team that lost two of its games to FBS Utah St and San Diego St (outscored by an avg of 44-27 but only out’FD by a combined 47-42). Offensively, the Thunderbirds return 7 starters but lose QB Cade Cooper who threw for 2,988 yds (65.2%, 31-12 ratio). His replacement however will have arguably the best WRs corps in the entire FCS at his disposal including 2-time 1st Tm GWC Tysson Poots who had 1,081 yds (12.7) and 15 TD’s a year ago. Defensively they welcome back 6 of their top 7 tacklers from a unit that gave up 30.9 ppg and 432 ypg and will be tested against an experienced Wyoming offense. The Cowboys are off a 7-win season, which included a bowl win over Fresno St. This year they return 15 starters including QB Austyn Carta-Samuels who was the MWC Freshman of the Year LY after throwing for 1,953 yds (58.6%, 10-5 ratio). The Cowboys also return their leading rusher and the top 3 receivers from a year ago. Defensively, 7 starters are back including their top 3 tacklers. Last year Wyoming opened up with FCS Weber St and only had a 434-411 yd edge in the 7 pt win as they were +4 in TO’s and two years ago the Cowboys were nearly upset by North Dakota St (16-13). This year Christensen will have them more focused despite having a road game at Texas on deck.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : WYOMING 35 S UTAH 17 |
PORTLAND ST at ARIZONA ST |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
|
PORTLAND ST |
3 |
175 |
10 |
2.7 |
|
ARIZONA ST |
202 |
305 |
39 |
3.2 |
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Arizona St has only played 8 FCS teams since 1950 (8-0) but play back-to-back games this year. The Vikings went 2-9 last season including a 34-7 loss to Oregon St in their opener (outgained 433-351). Former HC Jerry Glanville stepped down after the season and new HC Nigel Burton who was the DC at Nevada the last 2 years steps in as the Vikings return just 11 starters. On offense due to injuries LY, they had to play 3 QB’s but TY all of them return. Portland St is trying to avoid a 4th straight losing season, something that hasn’t happened there since 1971-74. Arizona St is coming off their second straight losing season and this year return just 9 starters. The good news is Soph MLB Vontaze Burfict returns as the Sun Devils D gave up just 298 ypg LY. Arizona St has opened up with FCS foes in 3 of the last 4 years and have outscored them by a 38-10 avg. My computer predicts a 39-10 score but I feel the Sun Devil defense is one of the most underrated in the country and get the shutout here.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : ARIZONA ST 42 PORTLAND ST 0 |
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