MIN has dominant matchup advantages here with their #10 run game (120 ypg 4.4) vs a Bills defense allowing 167 ypg (4.6) TY with 14 games of 150 yds rushing in the L27 games. MIN has been done in by Favre’s TO’s TY (17 Int) but they have outgained foes 345-287 at home and have the 4th best home defense. MIN got a win LW in Leslie Frazier’s coaching debut (ended a 9 gm road losing streak) vs WAS they played with much more energy and crispness and had both Rice and Harvin starting at WR for the 1st time TY. MIN stripped down the playbook and focused on the run game (137 yds 3.6) which kept the defense fresh as they made 13 plays behind the LOS on 52 snaps. The Bills come in off another game where the opposing team took them lightly and they rallied back vs PIT. BUF was manhandled by PIT LW in the 1H lucky to only be down 13-0. BUF was outFD 18-4 and outgained 225-51 with just 6 yds rushing (1.5). A 65 yd screen pass to RB Jackson with 3:45 left in the 3Q along with six 2H penalties by PIT gave the Bills the spark to send the game into OT. Look for MIN to play efficiently in Frazier’s home debut and for Favre to be solid vs a BUF defense that is giving up a 13-2 ratio on the road TY. 

Despite being outscored by 54 pts on the year, the Jags have been playing good ball the L4W with the #7 and #22 units (-2 TO’s). Injuries at WR and on the DL combined with a bad QB situation has seen the normally stout Titans fall to #30 and #29 (-5 TO’s) the L4W. TEN was forced to start Rusty Smith LW vs a desperate Texans team and were taken apart. HOU sold out on the run holding TEN to 24 yds (2.0) as they didn’t fear Smith who only had 138 yds (55%) with 3 int. TEN was outgained 346-162 with 80 of their yards coming on their final drive. QB Collins should get the start here. JAX was efficient offensively vs the Giants LW converting 10 of 16 3rd Dns as they ran for 207 yds (6.1) vs a def that has held foes to 100 yds or less 7 times TY. It’s not unusual to see a physical TEN/JAX game and with Collins back at QB for the Titans I think they end their slide here.

The Giants were in a good situation LW vs JAX who were off 3 straight wins vs foes with a losing record and travelling for the 1st time in 3 Wks. NY marched down the field on their opening drive but a fumble on the JAX 3 had them settle for a FG and a TD pass in the 2Q was called back on a penalty. The defense looked worn out after chasing Vick on MNF as they gave up 207 yds rushing (6.1) and allowed JAX to convert 10 of 16 on 3rd Dns. Manning without Smith and Nicks (109 rec 12.1 combined TY) had decent stats (226 yds 58% 2 TD) but there was obvious communication issues with the receivers. Injuries at RB, OL and in the secondary caught up to the Redskins LW vs MIN. McNabb had decent numbers (211 yds 60% 1-1) but MIN didn’t fear WAS’s ability to go deep and kept the safeties up holding them to 29 yds rushing (2.2). This is a game that fits the Giants abilities right now with WAS only being able to pass (19 or less rush att 3 L4 games), only winning the yardage battle once TY (-84 ypg w/o TEN game), giving up 163 ypg rushing (5.2) and the Giants win this one.

SF is in a bad spot off a MNF Div road game vs ARZ vs a GB team off a last second loss in ATL which had playoff seeding implications. GB outgained ATL 418-295 but their lack of a run game (Rodgers led team w/51 yds rushing) allowed the Falcons to dictate the tempo of the game. GB has the #13 and #2 units (+8 TO’s) the L4W vs the 49ers #29 and #17 units (+2 TO’s). GB also has a huge edge with Dom Capers and the #3 pass rush vs Troy Smith who has faced 3 deep pass rushes ranked 16th or worse in his 4 starts TY. GB has only allowed 195 ypg passing (61%) with a 6-10 ratio (5.72 ypa) at home TY. TB showed that if Smith is contained in the pocket behind a bad SF OL he struggles as he had 148 yds (52%) with an Int and 6 sacks. Green Bay gets a big bounce back win here.

ATL is off a big home win vs GB which could have playoff seeding implications. While they were outgained 418-294 their RB’s set the tone of the game with a 117 (4.3) to 26 (2.2) edge when Rodgers 51 yds (4.3) are taken out. ATL needed a 47 yd FG with :09 left to escape with the win. This is only the 2nd home game in a 6 Wk span for TB. They are a respectable 27th and 8th (+0 TO’s) the L4W and match up well vs ATL with the #17 and #12 units (+6 TO’s). After shutting out SF on the road, TB continued to show their improvement as they lost by just 7 LW on the road to BAL. While Freeman only had 162 yds passing, TB didn’t turn the ball over and 7 different Bucs had a catch. ATL is getting all the talk of being "the best team in the NFC" this week and earlier this year in that role they were beaten soundly on the road to PHI. I'll go with TB in the upset here.        

Traveling across the country for a second straight away game is tough. It’s even tougher as a 1-10 team that had a lead and lost it with 2:42 left. Seattle’s offense has been hit or miss as in the L4W they gained 162, 490, 424 and only 288 yds LW. The Seahawks defense continues to struggle and in the L5W they’ve been mauled for 471 ypg but that was against 3 top 10 offenses in KC, NO and the NYG. Carolina’s offense is the polar opposite and while the attrition is to fault for the putrid production the numbers are still surprisingly low as they’ve been held to under 280 yds in 8 of 11 games. The woes continue for John Fox and company as they’ve been outgained in every road game by an avg of 98 ypg and have been outFD’d by an avg of 22-14.

These two opened up this season and St Louis led 13-10 when Anderson hit Fitzgerald with a 21 yd TD pass with 6:13 left in the game. LW they expanded the playbook and allowed deeper throws and Bradford lived up to the expectations (308, 59%, 3-0) for his first NFL road win. While the Rams are playing B2B road games that is somewhat negated by the Cards having played on Monday night. Nothing pretty about Arizona’s numbers as they’ve been OUTGAINED in every home game by an avg of 98 ypg. The Cardinals have decided to stick with interception machine Anderson and it’s clear he’s been instructed to not throw picks because he’s hitting only 54% comp and has been sacked 13 times in the L3 games as he’s holding on to the ball. The Rams D doesn’t get much publicity but continues to improve and has 21 sacks the L6 games. Better offense and better defense give STL B2B road wins.