Daily Blog • December 8, 2010

 

HEISMAN PROJECTIONS


Here are the four candidates for the 2010 Heisman Trophy. Today, I will give you the PROS and CONS for each winning the Award this year but let me first say that this should be one of the largest landslides in the history of the award and unlike last year the race is for 2nd place this year. The Award comes out on Saturday but here are my projections of the order of finish for this year’s top 4 that have been invited to New York.

PROJECTED WINNER
Cam Newton, Auburn.

PROS.

  1. Newton leads the NCAA in pass efficiency avg 200 pass ypg completing 67% of his passes with a 28-6 ratio. A lot of people have made a big deal about Boise St’s QB Moore pass efficiency this year but after Newton’s outstanding performance in the SEC Championship game, Newton actually passed him for the top spot.
  2. Newton has rushed for 1,409 yds (5.8) with 20 TD’s, which is not far off of Oregon St’s RB James numbers. Newton also did it against many tough SEC defenses and became the first player in SEC history to pass for more than 2,000 yds and rush for 1,000 yds in a season and actually led the SEC in rushing this year.
  3. Newton saved some of his best performances for the biggest games. Last week in the SEC championship game he accounted for 6 total TD’s in the largest blowout in SEC Championship game history. Two weeks ago in maybe the biggest game of the regular season he led a 24-0 comeback against arch-rival Alabama on the road which was the largest comeback margin ever against an Alabama team in their storied history.

CONS.

  1. The only con for Newton is the off-the-field issues which may hurt him with some voters who take the integrity of the player into account when voting despite the fact that the NCAA has ruled him eligible and said he did nothing wrong. I have heard that up to 10% of the voters may not vote for him for this reason.

PROJECTED #2
Andrew Luck, Stanford

PROS.

  1. Luck is avg 254 pass ypg with a 70% comp rate and a 28-7 ratio. He also put up some surprising rush stats with 438 rush yds and a very impressive 8.6 ypc (better ypc than James) and has a couple of 50+ yd runs this season!
  2. Coming into the year Luck was playing without LY’s Heisman runner-up RB Gerhart and was the glue that held the entire offense together early as the young skill position players developed.
  3. If a voter was looking at a proto-typical QB at the next level that has all the intangibles of a future NFL star, there may be no prospect better in all of college football than Luck and he led his team to an 11-1 record which is the best in school history.

CONS.

  1. Came up short in the Oregon game especially in the 2H with a couple of interceptions which will hurt him with voters who favor Oregon RB James who ran for 257 yds and 3 TD’s in that contest with the Ducks winning by 3 TD’s. Also plays in the West with 3 of the other finalists, which will split the vote.

PROJECTED #3
LaMichael James, Oregon

PROS.

  1. Led the nation in rushing with 1,682 yds (6.0) and 21 TD’s and last year Stanford RB Gerhart in the same situation finished 2nd in the race.
  2. Had two of his best performances this season in national spotlight games against Stanford and USC. Against the Cardinal he ran for 257 yds and 3 TD’s and ran for 238 rush yds and 3 TD’s against USC.
  3. The three QB’s may split some of the votes and James is playing on a undefeated team that will play for the national title.

CONS.

  1. James was suspended for one game this season for an off-the field incident. He also plays in a offense that is beneficial to the RB’s and the back-ups had better ypc’s and did not seem to miss a beat when James was not in the lineup.

PROJECTED #4
Kellen Moore, Boise St

PROS.

  1. Is a great leader on and off the field and has had three spectacular seasons in a row leading the Broncos to a 37-2 record.
  2. May garner some sympathy votes from voters who are against the off-the-field incidents of Newton and will place Moore higher on the ballot because of his “underdog” status.
  3. Completed 71% of his passes avg 292 pass ypg with a 33-5 ratio, which was good enough for #2 in pass efficiency in the NCAA.

CONS.

  1. Plays for a non-AQ team that lost a national spotlight game. Also many will question the type of competition he faced on a week-to-week basis and he will probably have another opportunity to win the Heisman next year as a Senior.