Daily Blog • December 10, 2010
2010 Surprise College Football Fantasy Recap
Week-by-Week W/L Record Big Wins in ()
QB's: RB's: () WR's: Defenses: Upset of the Week:
Week 1
 3-0 (1) 5-0 (2) 1-1 2-0 (2) Maryland over Navy Winner!
Week 2
 4-0 (2) 3-0 (1) 0-2-1 0-0-2 Hawaii over Army Winner!
Week 3
 2-2-1 (1) 2-1 (2) 1-0-2 2-1 (2) Notre Dame over Michigan St
Week 4
 1-0-2 (1) 1-1-1 1-0-1 1/1/01 Notre Dame over Stanford
Week 5
 2-1 3-0 (3) 2-1 (1) 2-1 Western Michigan over Idaho
Week 6
 2-1 (2) 2-1 (1) 2-1 1/1/01 Wake Forest over Navy
Week 7
 2-1 (1) 0-2-1 1-1-1 (1) 3-0 (1) California over USC
Week 8
 2-1 3-0 (2) 0-3 3-0 Northwestern over Michigan St
Week 9
 1-2 2-1 (1) 1-0-2 1-1-1 (1) Western Michigan over Northern Illinois
Week 10
 2-1 (2) 1-2 2-1 3-0 (1) Navy over East Carolina
Week 11
 4-1 (3) 2-0 (1) 2-0 (1) 3-0 Colorado over iowa St
Week 12
 2-1 (1) 2-1 (1) 1-2 (1) 2-1 (1) Colorado over Kansas St
Week 13
 2-1 (1) 3-0 (1) 3-0 (1) 1-2 Maryland over NC State
Week 14
 2-0 1-1 0-2 1-1 (1) Pittsburgh over Cincinnati
Overall:
 31-12-3 (15) 30-10-2 (15) 17-14-7 (5) 25-9-5 (9) 7-7

Overall: 103-45-17 (70%)!

Last year I started a weekly blog that included my surprise fantasy picks for each week of the college football season. Each week I picked the players that were flying under the radar and this year I continued my weekly surprise fantasy picks. Last week I finished with a 4-4 record. Overall on the season I am 103-45-17 (70%) and had a winning week each and every week!. I think 70% is not so bad when you consider I could not take players like Kellen Moore, LaMichael James and Cam Newton each and every week.

Top 25 Forecasts

 

Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer's projected box score for each game.

Last week the Top 25/Championship Game forecasts went 9-1 picking the winners of each game and have gone 205-60 (77%) so far this season! I also listed some Upset Specials every week which went 8-5 the L/6 weeks. This week since there are no games involving Top 25 teams, I am just going to post my Army/Navy forecast along with the quarterfinals of the FCS Playoffs.

NAVY vs ARMY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NAVY 315
55
31
1.9
-
ARMY
250
135
30
1.4
••
This game will be played in Philadelphia and Navy has won an amazing series record 8 in a row vs their bitter rival Army by an avg of 36-9 (outgained Army by 150 ypg) and over the last 3 years Army has been outscored 89-6. LY Army led 3-0 at the half (their first halftime lead in the series since 2001), but Navy shut them out in the 2H for a 17-3 win. Army forced 3 fumbles but a pair of missed FG’s, a lost fumble and an int were too much to overcome. Army HC Ellerson recruited Navy HC Niumatalolo to play QB at Hawaii in the mid ‘80’s. Navy QB Dobbs has missed 2 gms with injury this year (should be healthy now) but is still the team’s top rusher with 806 (3.6) and is avg 119 ypg pass (55%) with a 10-4 ratio. Navy faced Georgia Southern earlier TY (also triple option) and only escaped with a 13-7 win (193-109 yd edge). When Army defeated Kent St they became bowl eligible for the first time since 1996. They had a game at Yankee Stadium vs Notre Dame on deck but after the KS win they chanted "beat Navy." The Army Sr class is trying to avoid becoming the 2nd straight class never to beat either Air Force or Navy. Army FB Hassin leads with 881 (5.6) while QB Steelman is the #2 with 620 (3.7) and is avg 76 ypg pass (55%) with a 5-3 ratio. Navy has the edge on off (#52-87) but Army has the edge on def (#68-81) and ST (#51-106). Both teams lost to Air Force this ssn (Navy 14-6, Army 42-22) so the CIC Trophy is not on the line here. Navy beat ND 35-17 while Army lost to the Irish 27-3. Both tms have already clinched bowls (first time S/'96) and each has had 3 weeks to prepare. This is the most important game of the year for both teams. With both teams running the same form of triple option, this gm should be close but the Midshipmen make it 9.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NAVY 23 ARMY 17

 

FCS PLAYOFFS QUARTERFINALS:
#5 EASTERN WASHINGTON vs NORTH DAKOTA ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
  
NORTH DAKOTA ST 158
160
22

3

  
EASTERN WASHINGTON
157
245
24
3
  
First meeting. EW is 7-0 on their new red turf incl a 37-17 win vs SEMO (22-8 FD edge). Our power ratings call it close, but NDSt's 42-17 win over MSU is misleading as they scored 28 pts in 4Q incl 3 drives of 38, 52 and 10 yds without their starting QB. Look for EW to make it 8-0 at home.
PHIL’S FORECAST: E WASH 34 ND ST 17

 

 
FCS PLAYOFFS QUARTERFINALS:
#1 APPALACHIAN ST vs VILLANOVA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
VILLANOVA 211
135
28
2.0
APPALACHIAN ST
184
215
29
2.0
Saturday • 12:00 EST • ESPN. First meeting. VU has been a different team since the return of their all-purp star Matt Szczur, who led in both rush (68) and rec (128) in their 54-24 win over SF Austin. However they travel to face #1 seed App St who is led by QB Presley who rushed for 264 yds (16.5) in the snow in their 42-14 rout of WIU. I'll call for the home field edge to be the deciding factor here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: app st 28 villanova 27

 

FCS PLAYOFFS QUARTERFINALS:
#3 DELAWARE vs NEW HAMPSHIRE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
  
NEW HAMPSHIRE 91
220
23
2
  
DELAWARE
164
255
31
3
  
Fri• 8:00 pm EST • espn2. NH has won 3 str vs UD (by comb 11 pts) but these two last met in '07. Behind bkup QB Decker, NH beat the MEAC Champ BCU 45-20 but BCU was without QB Johnson (#1 rusher). UD led PFL Champ Lehigh 42-13 in the 4Q before giving up a meaningless TD. Look for UD to end their losing streak to the Wildcats here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: DELAWARE 34 N HAMPSHIRE 27

 

FCS PLAYOFFS QUARTERFINALS: GEORGIA SOUTHERN at WOFFORD
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
GEORGIA SOUTHERN 241
35
22
3
WOFFORD
254
85
20
2
Wofford beat GS 33-31 at Paulson Stadium with a 408-342 yd edge. Wofford's only two losses were to Ohio and App St but they lost to App St 43-13 the week after GS beat them 21-14. That win over App St was the beginning of a 5 gm win streak that carried GS into and through their first 2 playoff gms. This should be a close one but we will call for GS to keep their streak alive.
PHIL’S FORECAST: GA SOUTHERN 21 WOFFORD 20