Daily Blog • Friday, December 24th

HAPPY HOLIDAYS!!!

HAWAII BOWL
Friday, December 24th @ 8:00p.m.
Click on the bowl logo for MORE info!!!!

TULSA (9-3) VS HAWAII (10-3)
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
A.O.R
TULSA 178
250
32
2.7
•••
 92.4
HAWAII
112
440
41
2.9
-
 94.0
These two are former WAC foes (‘96-’04) and the Warriors won the most recent gm 44-16 in Honolulu where they are 3-1 vs the Hurricane. This will also be UH’s 8th appearance in bowls on the Island where they are 4-3. Both teams have lethal offenses as Tulsa (#17) is led by QB Kinne who improved his play throughout the year and actually ended up leading the tm in rush yds making him an even more valuable threat. Their utility man is WR Johnson who for the 2nd year in a row led the NCAA in all-purpose yds. Johnson also broke Western Michigan's West’s 4 yr NCAA career KR record (3,118) which is remarkable considering he’s just a Jr. Hawaii meanwhile has a high-octane offense themselves (#16) and still utilizes the “Hawaii-Five-O” WR set while the run game has flourished and produced a 1,000 yd rusher for the first time S/’99 in RB Green (schl record 327 yds vs NMSt). QB Moniz, the NCAA’s leader in total offense (362 ypg), etched his name into the UH record books this year setting a school record with 560 pass yds vs San Jose St. Slot WR Salas (UH’s all-time leading rec) has 272 career receptions for 4,131 yds and is #2 in the NCAA in rec ypg and #3 in rec per gm. On defense Hawaii actually has the edge as their #55 D is led by LB Paredes (144 tkl) and S Silva who has 8 INT's this year. Tulsa meanwhile has my #91 D and struggled in the pass game allowing 306 ypg (61%) with a 30-19 ratio. On special teams, the Hurricane have a huge edge with my #11 unit led by Johnson while Hawaii is just #84. Overall, the Warriors have used their home edge to maul teams outscoring them 53-23 and outgaining them 623-352! But with the added time prior to the bowl it negates some of that advantage. From game 4 on, the Tulsa offense has clicked and that includes outright upsets at both Notre Dame and Houston. Tulsa HC Graham is treating this as a business trip and I'll call for them to keep this closer than what many people predict.
PHIL’S FORECAST: HAWAII 38 TULSA 35

 

HERE ARE MY WEEK 16 NFL SELECTIONS:
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 25TH
DALLAS AT ARIZONA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DAL 154
228
31
1.9
#9
ARZ 73
223
22
2.1
#6
Its not a surprise that Arizona struggled on the road after blowing out Denver at home LW with just 11 FD’s & 43 (2.5) rush yds. They now return home vs a Dallas team that is out to win to make fans want to buy tickets for 2011 and HC Garrett is making his case to be the HC next year as well. The Cowboys did give up 4 TD’s to Bears QB Grossman LW but they also logged 17 plays behind the LOS along with 2 Int & a FF. Dallas continues their impressive 2H of the season with a road win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Dallas 34 arizona 20

 

DETROIT AT MIAMI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DET 87
203
16
0.8
#5
MIA 118
230
20
1.7
#28
The Lions travel to Florida for the 2nd week in a row after snapping a 19 game Division loss streak & a 25 road losing streak last week in their win over Tampa Bay. It was also their first road win over a team with a winning record since 2000! Detroit has avg’d 158 ypg rush (5.2) the L4W which has kept Stanton from having to do too much. The Dolphins are the 1st team to have 6 road wins vs 6 home losses in NFL history after Henne’s Int set up a Buffalo TD in the 1H & ultra-reliable K Carpenter missed 4 FG’s. Miami has been eliminated from the playoffs & they may put Thigpen out to get snaps. Despite the home struggles, I'll call for the Dolphins to get the close win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: miami 23 detroit 20

 

SAN FRANCISCO AT ST LOUIS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SF 108
175
21
2.8
#27
STL 91
223
19
2.4
#19
Every team in the NFC West lost LW but the 49ers are still remarkably alive (#10 seed) in the playoff race despite their 5-9 record. The Rams were outrushed 210 (5.0) to 69 (3.3) LW at home which had quite a few Kansas City fans in attendance. SF was simply blown out by SD being outgained by 182 yds. HC Singletary has named Troy Smith the starter here and you have to wonder whether the musical chairs at QB will cost him his job. The Rams get the much needed win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: st louis 20 san fran 17

 

NEW ENGLAND AT BUFFALO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NE 141
245
35
0.8
#11
BUF 127
228
19
2.5
#20
NE has dominated this series winning 14 straight. The Pats were fortunate to come away with a win vs GB who had a 369-249 yd edge along with a 2-1 TOP edge LW. BUF overcame its defensive limitations again LW without WR Evans (ankle sprain) to pull an upset over Miami. Buffalo is 4-2 in its L/6 gms making them very dangerous here. NE magic number is 1 to win the top seed in AFC and after last weeks sluggish effort at home, I expect a much better effort this week
PHIL’S FORECAST: New england 35 buffalo 17

 

BALTIMORE AT CLEVELAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BAL 139
190
20
1.2
#12
CLE 81
223
15
1.7
#4
McCoy had his best day in his short career with 243 yds( 76%) & 2 TD’s but that was vs the #18 defense that sold out to stop Hillis (59 yds 4.2). 163 of CLE’s 278 yds came on their 1st & last drives along with both TD’s. HC Mangini is coaching for his job these L/2 weeks. BAL did what they do best in December as they rushed for 208 yds (5.3) and they moved to 2-12 vs SB winning QB’s. Baltimore currently owns the #5 seed but if they win out & get a little help they can still win the AFC North.
PHIL’S FORECAST: baltimore 27 cleveland 14

 

INDIANAPOLIS AT OAKLAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
IND 104
235
29
1.1
#31
OAK 183
225
30
1.5
#13
IND seized 1st place in the AFC South as Manning (229 yds 74% 2-0) took apart the Jags defense LW. It came at a cost as WR Collie sustained his 2nd concussion & was put on IR. OAK posted 500 yds on DEN for the 2nd time TY & its amazing that LY’s 5-11 Raiders are just 2 games behind KC in the AFC West as they have won the most games since their 2002 SB appearance. While my computer calls for the Raider victory, I will disagree and go with the Colts.
PHIL’S FORECAST: indianapolis 31 oakland 21

 

NY GIANTS AT GREEN BAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NYG 143
124
16
2.3
#24
GB 126
253
24
2.0
#26
The Giants are off one of their most painful losses in recent history after blowing a 3 TD lead with half of the 4Q left to Vick and the Eagles last year which probably cost them the divsion title. The ST's breakdown on the final play sealed the agonzing defeat. The fact is they are the 6th seed right now taking on GB who is 7th. GB played a dominating game with Flynn at the helm LW but that was vs the Pats' #27 defense (30th pass) off 2 big wins vs the Jets & Bears. Rodgers will return here and this one should go down to the wire.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NY giants 23 green bay 20


 

 
WASHINGTON AT JACKSONVILLE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WAS 98
250
20
1.3
#16
JAX 173
240
28
1.9
#2
The Jags went from being in the drivers seat in the AFC South to the #8 seed after losing to Indianapolis LW. Jones-Drew was held to 46 yds (3.1) after 6 straight games of 100 yds rushing. Washington made a surprise move by starting Grossman LW vs DAL & he played well with 322 yds & 4 TD’s as the Redskins had a season high 30 pts but he did have 3 costly TO's. Jacksonville needs to win out & get help to make the playoffs and they get the job done here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: j'ville 27 washington 20

SEATTLE AT TAMPA BAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SEA 105
210
18
2.2
#1
TB 155
250
30
1.3
#18
Hasselbeck has turned the ball over 13 times the L2W & Seattle has lost 6 of its last 8. While still in the chase for the NFC West, Carroll left open the chance that Whitehurst could get the start here. TB’s injuries caught up to them LW as they dropped their 1st game to a foe with a losing record TY giving up 181 yds (6.5) rushing to Detroit. My computer calls for TB to have a 90 yd edge & hit 30 pts for the 3rd time TY vs a SEA team that has not performed well on the road in recent years. The Bucs keep their faint playoff hopes alive.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Tampa bay 27 seattle 17

NY JETS AT CHICAGO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NYJ 118
183
15
1.5
#3
CHI 90
131
17
2.1
#8
The Jets rebounded from a 2 game losing streak by upsetting the Steelers as Sanchez had a very clean game with no TO’s & took what they gave him. Chicago wrapped up the NFC North LW on MNF with a win over MIN after getting hammered by NE. Both of these teams need a win for playoff positioning and I'll call for the Bears to remain alive in the race for the #2 seed in the NFC.
PHIL’S FORECAST: chicago 21 new York jets 14

TENNESSEE AT KANSAS CITY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TEN 119
158
15
1.5
#7
KC 173
208
21
0.8
#23
TEN snapped a 5 game losing streak as they scored TD’s on their 1st 3 drives, neutralized Foster (15 yds (1.4) & forced Schaub to try & win the game (54 pass att’s). KC got right with a big win vs STL with as the defense held STL to 1 FD & 23 yds in the 2nd & 3rd Qtr and QB Cassell was applauded for his courage. TEN does have faint playoff hopes (IND/JAX lose out while TEN wins out) while KC holds onto a 1 game lead vs SD. My computer calls for TY’s #1 rushing team to beat LY’s #1 rushing team by 6 but I think the Chiefs win by even more as they move one step closer to their first playoff appearance since 2006.
PHIL’S FORECAST: kansas city 28 tennessee 14

HOUSTON AT DENVER
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
HOU 152
268
32
2.3
#30
DEN 101
248
25
1.6
#25
HOU is just 1-7 since the bye week thanks to their #30 defense which gave up 3 TD’s to TEN on their 1st 3 drives. Denver gave Tebow his 1st start LW vs OAK & while his stats weren’t great (138 yds 50% 1 TD) he didn’t turn the ball over & his 40 yd TD came on a busted play. DEN’s #32 defense has allowed 422 ypg since the bye & their 8 Ints (vs 22 TD’s) have come in 4 games TY. HOU was looked at as a serious challenger for the AFC South title TY but instead are staring at their 1st losing season since Kubiak took over. An key intangible here is that Kubiak could be auditioning for the Broncos HC role in 2011 here (QB 1983-91, OC 1995-2005).
PHIL’S FORECAST: houston 34 denver 24

SAN DIEGO AT CINCINNATI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SD 93
218
31
1.6
#32
CIN 99
150
17
1.9
#29
Prior to the 34-7 thumping of the 49ers HC Turner admitted that he had roughly 20 starters playing the best ball of their career. SD is only a game behind KC in the standings & have a legit chance of taking the Division away from them. CIN got their 1st win in 10 games LW vs CLE but they lost WR Owens (MCL) for the rest of the year. CIN is playing for 2011 (WR’s Simpson & Caldwell got the start) & are woefully undermanned in the secondary here. My computer calls for SD to win by 14 here & with extra rest & playoff need, I think they roll here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: san diego 34 cincinnati 14