Daily Blog • February 17, 2010

In my 2009 College Preview Magazine on pgs 324 and 327 I included my computer's projected stats in 2009 for all 120 FBS teams. There were several different categories including rush offense/defense, pass offense/defense, offensive pts and defensive pts.

On the right hand side of the page I listed the teams that my computer projected to be most improved in '09 compared to '08 season in 6 different categories. I had them ranked in order from Most Improved all the way down to the Least Improved and included the top 15 in each category along with the bottom 5.

In today's blog I have included my projections of the teams I thought would be most improved in offensive ppg heading into the 2009 season and how they finished in the final NCAA rankings.

In the coming days I will feature a different category in each blog and I think you will be happy with the results of the accuracy of my projections.

Most Improved Offensive Points 2009
Pre-Season Projection
Final Rankings
Rank
 Team
1
 Michigan
2
 UCLA
3
 Washington
4
 SMU
5
 Colorado
6
 Notre Dame
7
 Illinois
8
 Arkansas
9
 Hawaii
10
 San Diego St
11
 Texas A&M
12
 Wyoming
13
 Auburn
14
 Miami, FL
15
 Tulane
116
 Ball St
117
 Texas Tech
118
 Oregon
119
 Tulsa
120
 Rice
Rank
Team
09 PPG
08 PPG
Diff
1
Auburn
33.31
17.33
15.98
2
Arkansas
36
21.92
14.08
4
Washington
26.08
13.25
12.83
11
Michigan
29.5
20.25
9.25
14
SMU
29.23
21.33
7.9
15
Texas A&M
32.85
25
7.85
22
Wyoming
18.31
12.67
5.64
23
Notre Dame
30.08
24.69
5.39
35
UCLA
22
17.67
4.33
38
San Diego St
23.33
19.25
4.08
42
Miami, FL
30.31
27.08
3.23
50
Colorado
22.25
20.17
2.08
71
Tulane
16.08
16.67
-0.59
76
Hawaii
22.77
24.64
-1.87
91
Illinois
24.17
28.67
-4.5
96
Oregon
36.08
41.92
-5.84
101
Texas Tech
37
43.77
-6.77
117
Ball St.
19.17
34.93
-15.76
118
Tulsa
29.25
47.21
-17.96
120
Rice
18.25
41.31
-23.06

As you can see my projections were pretty close. I nailed 6 of the top 15 most improved teams (40%) and 12 of my projected top 15 improved their ppg in 2009 (80%)! Michigan who was my #1 Most Improved Team went from 20.25 ppg in '08 to 29.5 ppg in '09 (9.25)!

Washington who was my #3 team finally had QB Jake Locker healthy for the entire season and finished #4 with a 12.83 ppg improvement. Auburn and Arkansas who finished as the #1 and #2 most improved teams in '09 both appeared in the top 15 in my preseason projection.

My bottom 5 results were even more accurate. All 5 of my projected bottom teams in offensive ppg saw their ppg drop at least 5.84 ppg in 09! All 5 of the teams including Rose Bowl bound Oregon finished 96th or worse and 3 of the teams in my preseason bottom 5 actually finished in the bottom 5!

Coming into the season despite their 10-3 record in '08 I thought Rice would struggle and have their 6th losing season in 8 years. I also projected the Owls to be the least improved team in the country in offensive points as they avg 41.31 ppg in '08. In '09 they struggled offensively and averaged only 18.25 ppg which was a 23.06 ppg decrease and ranked #120 exactly like I projected!

Overall 17 of the 20 teams (85%) that were featured in my magazine finished with either a higher ppg or lower ppg just as I projected!

Here is a complete list of all 120 teams and how they fared from 2008 to 2009. The teams highlighted in yellow were the teams I had projected in my top 15 and the teams highlighted in green are those I projected to be in the bottom 5.

Most Improved Offensive Points 2009

Rank
 Team
09 PPG
08 PPG
Diff
1
 Auburn
33.31
17.33
15.98
2
 Arkansas
36
21.92
14.08
3
 Idaho
32.69
19.58
13.11
4
 Washington
26.08
13.25
12.83
5
 Cincinnati
38.62
25.86
12.76
6
 Tennessee
29.31
17.33
11.98
7
 Mississippi St.
25.58
15.25
10.33
8
 Virginia Tech
31.85
22.07
9.78
9
 UCF
26.15
16.58
9.57
10
 Georgia Tech
33.79
24.38
9.41
11
 Michigan
29.5
20.25
9.25
12
 Stanford
35.46
26.25
9.21
13
 Middle Tenn.
32
22.83
9.17
14
 SMU
29.23
21.33
7.9
15
 Texas A&M
32.85
25
7.85
16
 Toledo
29.67
22.42
7.25
17
 North Carolina St.
30.33
23.46
6.87
18
 North Texas
26.58
20
6.58
19
 Connecticut
31.15
24.92
6.23
20
 Temple
29.54
23.42
6.12
21
 Clemson
31.14
25.15
5.99
22
 Wyoming
18.31
12.67
5.64
23
 Notre Dame
30.08
24.69
5.39
24
 Wake Forest
26.33
21
5.33
25
 Duke
25.17
20.08
5.09
26
 Utah St.
29.08
24
5.08
27
 Pittsburgh
32.08
27.08
5
28
 UAB
27.75
22.75
5
29
 TCU
38.31
33.62
4.69
30
 Michigan St.
29.69
25.08
4.61
31
 Boise St.
42.21
37.62
4.59
32
 Louisiana Tech
29.17
24.62
4.55
33
 Northern Ill.
28.62
24.15
4.47
34
 Central Mich.
33.93
29.54
4.39
35
 UCLA
22
17.67
4.33
36
 Wisconsin
31.77
27.46
4.31
37
 Fresno St.
33.85
29.62
4.23
38
 San Diego St.
23.33
19.25
4.08
39
 East Carolina
27
23.43
3.57
40
 Kentucky
26.08
22.62
3.46
41
 Virginia
19.33
16.08
3.25
42
 Miami, FL
30.31
27.08
3.23
43
 Purdue
27.83
24.67
3.16
44
 Syracuse
21.17
18.08
3.09
45
 Indiana
23.5
20.5
3
46
 Air Force
29.69
26.77
2.92
47
 Western Kentucky
20.42
17.67
2.75
48
 Florida Atlantic
27.42
25.08
2.34
49
 Southern Miss.
32.92
30.62
2.3
50
 Colorado
22.25
20.17
2.08
51
 Alabama
32.07
30.14
1.93
52
 La.-Monroe
25.58
23.67
1.91
53
 West Virginia
26.15
24.54
1.61
54
 Houston
42.21
40.62
1.59
55
 Northwestern
25.92
24.38
1.54
56
 Ohio St.
29
27.62
1.38
57
 Marshall
21.77
20.5
1.27
58
 BYU
35.46
34.23
1.23
59
 Oregon St.
31.46
30.54
0.92
60
 Troy
33.69
32.77
0.92
61
 Navy
28
27.15
0.85
62
 Bowling Green
28.46
27.67
0.79
63
 Ohio
24.79
24.08
0.71
64
 Nevada
38.23
37.62
0.61
65
 Army
15.33
14.75
0.58
66
 Boston College
24.77
24.71
0.06
67
 Rutgers
28.85
29
-0.15
68
 South Carolina
20.62
20.77
-0.15
69
 Maryland
21.33
21.77
-0.44
70
 Arizona St.
22.33
22.83
-0.5
71
 Tulane
16.08
16.67
-0.59
72
 Washington St.
12
12.69
-0.69
73
 UNLV
24.83
25.58
-0.75
74
 South Fla.
26.46
27.62
-1.16
75
 FIU
22.92
24.67
-1.75
76
 Hawaii
22.77
24.64
-1.87
77
 Minnesota
20.92
23.23
-2.31
78
 Georgia
28.92
31.46
-2.54
79
 Mississippi
29.54
32.08
-2.54
80
 Vanderbilt
16.33
19.15
-2.82
81
 Miami, OH
15.58
18.42
-2.84
82
 Texas
39.29
42.38
-3.09
83
 UTEP
29.83
32.92
-3.09
84
 Florida St.
30.08
33.38
-3.3
85
 Colorado St.
21.67
25.15
-3.48
86
 California
29.08
32.62
-3.54
87
 North Carolina
23.77
27.69
-3.92
88
 Western Mich.
24.67
28.62
-3.95
89
 Kansas
29.42
33.38
-3.96
90
 Arkansas St.
22.67
27
-4.33
91
 Illinois
24.17
28.67
-4.5
92
 New Mexico
16.33
21.08
-4.75
93
 Iowa St.
20.54
25.33
-4.79
94
 San Jose St.
13.75
18.67
-4.92
95
 Memphis
21.83
27.15
-5.32
96
 Oregon
36.08
41.92
-5.84
97
 LSU
24.85
30.92
-6.07
98
 Buffalo
24.08
30.29
-6.21
99
 Kent St.
19.25
25.67
-6.42
100
 Louisville
18.08
24.67
-6.59
101
 Texas Tech
37
43.77
-6.77
102
 Utah
29.85
36.92
-7.07
103
 Iowa
23.15
30.31
-7.16
104
 Baylor
20.75
28
-7.25
105
 Florida
35.86
43.64
-7.78
106
 Arizona
27.38
36.62
-9.24
107
 Eastern Mich.
16.42
25.75
-9.33
108
 Penn St.
28.85
38.92
-10.07
109
 Nebraska
25.14
35.38
-10.24
110
 New Mexico St.
11.46
22.17
-10.71
111
 Akron
19.25
30
-10.75
112
 La.-Lafayette
22.17
33.08
-10.91
113
 USC
26.46
37.54
-11.08
114
 Kansas St.
23
34.92
-11.92
115
 Oklahoma St.
28.38
40.77
-12.39
116
 Missouri
29
42.21
-13.21
117
 Ball St.
19.17
34.93
-15.76
118
 Tulsa
29.25
47.21
-17.96
119
 Oklahoma
31.08
51.14
-20.06
120
 Rice
18.25
41.31
-23.06