Daily Blog • February 19, 2010

In my 2009 College Preview Magazine on pgs 324 and 327 I included my computer's projected stats in 2009 for all 120 FBS teams. There were several different categories including rush offense/defense, pass offense/defense, offensive pts and defensive pts.

On the right hand side of the page I listed the teams that my computer projected to be most improved in '09 compared to '08 season in 6 different categories. I had them ranked in order from Most Improved all the way down to the Least Improved and included the top 15 in each category along with the bottom 5.

In today's blog I have included my projections of the teams I thought would be most improved in defensive ppg heading into the 2009 season and how they finished in the final NCAA rankings.

In the coming days I will feature a different category in each blog and I think you will be happy with the results of the accuracy of my projections.

Most Improved Defensive Points 2009
Pre-Season Projection
Final Rankings
Rank
 Team
1
 North Texas
2
 Washington
3
 Kansas St
4
 SMU
5
 San Diego St
6
 Idaho
7
 Pittsburgh
8
 UCLA
9
 Washington St
10
 Marshall
11
 Nevada
12
 Nebraska
13
 Toledo
14
 UNLV
15
 Arkansas
116
 Cincinnati
117
 New Mexico
118
 N Iliinois
119
 Bowling Green
120
 Wake Forest
Rank
Team
09 PPG
08 PPG
Diff
4
North Texas
35.58
47.58
-12
5
Washington
26.67
38.58
-11.91
3
Kansas St
23.33
35.83
-12.5
7
SMU
27.62
38.17
-10.55
13
San Diego St
30.5
37.17
-6.67
12
Idaho
36
42.75
-6.75
44
Pittsburgh
19.77
21.46
-1.69
11
UCLA
21.23
29
-7.77
20
Washington St
38.5
43.85
-5.35
31
Marshall
24.31
27.67
-3.36
28
Nevada
28.54
32.31
-3.77
1
Nebraska
10.43
28.54
-18.11
107
Toledo
37.67
31.42
6.25
68
UNLV
32.42
32.58
-0.16
16
Arkansas
25.08
31.17
-6.09
86
Cincinnati
23.08
20.14
2.94
120
New Mexico
35.92
22.75
13.17
90
N Iliinois
21.62
18
3.62
96
Bowling Green
27.46
23.17
4.29
111
Wake Forest
26.25
18.31
7.94

As you can see my projections were pretty close. I nailed 4 of the top 5 most improved teams (80%) and 10 of the top 20! 13 of my projected top 15 (87%) saw a decrease in their ppg in 2009. North Texas who was my #1 Most Improved Team went from allowing 47.58 ppg in '08 to allowing 35.58 ppg in '09 a 12 ppg improvement and finished #4! Washington who was my #2 team finished #5 with a 11.91 ppg improvement. In my magazine I called for Kansas St to have the #3 most improved defensive ppg and the Wildcats gave up just 23.33 ppg in '09 and finished #3 exactly where I had them in the preseason! Finally Nebraska who finished as the #1 most improved team in '09 was ranked #12 in my preseason projection.

My bottom 5 results were just as accurate. All 5 of my projected bottom teams in defensive ppg saw their ppg increase at least 2.94 ppg in 09 and all 5 of the teams including Sugar Bowl bound Cincinnati finished 86th or worse! Wake Forest who I projected to be the least improved team in defensive ppg went from allowing just 18.31 ppg in '08 to allowing 26.25 ppg in '09 and increase of nearly 8 ppg.

Heading into the season I thought New Mexico would struggle on both sides of the ball as they would have to adjust to completely new schemes with new HC Locksley. On defense, the Lobos were really hurt by the loss of HC Rocky Long who specialized on that side of the ball with his 3-3-5 defense. In my preseason magazine I called for the Lobos to have one of the least improved defensive ppg and they went from allowing 22.75 ppg in '08 to 35.92 ppg in '09 an increase of 13.17 ppg!

Overall 18 of the 20 teams (90%) that were featured in my magazine finished with either a higher ppg or lower ppg just as I projected!

Here is a complete list of all 120 teams and how they fared from 2008 to 2009. The teams highlighted in yellow were the teams I had projected in my top 15 and the teams highlighted in green are those I projected to be in the bottom 5.

Most Improved Defensive Points 2009

Rank
 Team
09 PPG
08 PPG
Diff
1
 Nebraska
10.43
28.54
-18.11
2
 Iowa St
21.85
35.83
-13.98
3
 Kansas St
23.33
35.83
-12.5
4
 North Texas
35.58
47.58
-12
5
 Washington
26.67
38.58
-11.91
6
 Central Mich
18.93
30.23
-11.3
7
 SMU
27.62
38.17
-10.55
8
 Oklahoma
14.54
24.5
-9.96
9
 Kent St.
22.42
31.67
-9.25
10
 LSU
16.23
24.15
-7.92
11
 UCLA
21.23
29
-7.77
12
 Idaho
36
42.75
-6.75
13
 San Diego St
30.5
37.17
-6.67
14
 Air Force
15.69
22.23
-6.54
15
 Oklahoma St
21.69
28.08
-6.39
16
 Arkansas
25.08
31.17
-6.09
17
 Ohio
21.29
27.25
-5.96
18
 Indiana
29.5
35.25
-5.75
19
 Texas Tech
22.46
27.85
-5.39
20
 Washington St.
38.5
43.85
-5.35
21
 Wisconsin
21.77
26.54
-4.77
22
 Syracuse
27.92
32.67
-4.75
23
 Buffalo
23.75
28.21
-4.46
24
 Oregon
23.77
28.23
-4.46
25
 North Carolina
17.08
21.15
-4.07
26
 Texas A&M
33.54
37.42
-3.88
27
 ULM
27.33
31.17
-3.84
28
 Nevada
28.54
32.31
-3.77
29
 Louisville
26.25
29.83
-3.58
30
 UTEP
33.5
37
-3.5
31
 Marshall
24.31
27.67
-3.36
32
 Louisiana
30.33
33.67
-3.34
33
 Fresno St.
28.38
31.08
-2.7
34
 Alabama
11.71
14.29
-2.58
35
 Navy
19.43
22
-2.57
36
 Akron
28.75
31.25
-2.5
37
 New Mexico St.
31.62
34.08
-2.46
38
 Penn St.
12.23
14.38
-2.15
39
 Baylor
27.25
29.33
-2.08
40
 Texas
16.71
18.77
-2.06
41
 Miami, FL
22.15
24.15
-2
42
 Missouri
25.38
27.21
-1.83
43
 Army
21.92
23.67
-1.75
44
 Pittsburgh
19.77
21.46
-1.69
45
 Arizona St.
21.08
22.67
-1.59
46
 UCF
22.54
24.08
-1.54
47
 Michigan
27.5
28.92
-1.42
48
 Ohio St.
12.54
13.92
-1.38
49
 Mississippi
17.69
19
-1.31
50
 Middle Tenn. St.
23.69
24.92
-1.23
51
 Virginia Tech
15.62
16.71
-1.09
52
 Minnesota
23.77
24.77
-1
53
 Rutgers
17.92
18.85
-0.93
54
 Stanford
26.54
27.42
-0.88
55
 Houston
30.07
30.92
-0.85
56
 Temple
22.31
23.08
-0.77
57
 South Carolina
20.38
21.08
-0.7
58
 Utah St.
34
34.67
-0.67
59
 Tulsa
27.33
27.93
-0.6
60
 Arkansas St.
23.25
23.75
-0.5
61
 Florida
12.43
12.93
-0.5
62
 Wyoming
27.31
27.75
-0.44
63
 Kansas
28.42
28.85
-0.43
64
 Colorado
28.83
29.25
-0.42
65
 Colorado St.
29.83
30.23
-0.4
66
 BYU
21.54
21.92
-0.38
67
 South Florida
19.77
20
-0.23
68
 UNLV
32.42
32.58
-0.16
69
 Hawaii
29.46
28.86
0.6
70
 East Carolina
21.93
21.07
0.86
71
 UAB
32.33
31.25
1.08
72
 Kentucky
22.69
21.46
1.23
73
 Georgia
25.92
24.54
1.38
74
 Boston College
19.77
18.36
1.41
75
 TCU
12.77
11.31
1.46
76
 Miami, OH
34.17
32.67
1.5
77
 Southern Miss.
25.85
24.08
1.77
78
 Oregon St.
25
23.08
1.92
79
 Louisiana Tech
25.75
23.69
2.06
80
 Mississippi St.
26.75
24.67
2.08
81
 Tulane
36.67
34.5
2.17
82
 Iowa
15.38
13
2.38
83
 Western Mich.
27.5
24.92
2.58
84
 Arizona
23.92
21.31
2.61
85
 Eastern Mich.
38.25
35.58
2.67
86
 Cincinnati
23.08
20.14
2.94
87
 Utah
20.23
17.23
3
88
 Clemson
20.43
17.31
3.12
89
 Illinois
30.17
26.58
3.59
90
 Northern Ill.
21.62
18
3.62
91
 Vanderbilt
23.33
19.62
3.71
92
 Notre Dame
25.92
22.15
3.77
93
 Connecticut
23.62
19.77
3.85
94
 Purdue
29.08
25.08
4
95
 Michigan St.
26.31
22.08
4.23
96
 Bowling Green
27.46
23.17
4.29
97
 Northwestern
24.46
20.15
4.31
98
 Georgia Tech
24.79
20.31
4.48
99
 Boise St.
17.14
12.62
4.52
100
 Virginia
26.33
21.67
4.66
101
 West Virginia
21.69
17
4.69
102
 North Carolina St.
31.17
26.31
4.86
103
 Duke
28.33
23.42
4.91
104
 Florida Atlantic
33.75
28.69
5.06
105
 Tennessee
22.23
16.75
5.48
106
 California
25.46
19.92
5.54
107
 Toledo
37.67
31.42
6.25
108
 FIU
35.33
28.33
7
109
 Ball St.
28.17
20.5
7.67
110
 Memphis
34.83
27.15
7.68
111
 Wake Forest
26.25
18.31
7.94
112
 Troy
29.77
21.31
8.46
113
 Maryland
31.25
22.46
8.79
114
 Auburn
27.54
18
9.54
115
 Rice
43.08
33.31
9.77
116
 Florida St.
30
20.15
9.85
117
 USC
19.85
9
10.85
118
 Western Ky.
39.58
27.17
12.41
119
 San Jose St.
34.5
21.58
12.92
120
 New Mexico
35.92
22.75
13.17