Daily Blog • February 22, 2010	Blog Archives

In my 2009 College Preview Magazine on pgs 324 and 327 I included my computer's projected stats in 2009 for all 120 FBS teams. There were several different categories including rush offense/defense, pass offense/defense, offensive pts and defensive pts.

On the right hand side of the page I listed the teams that my computer projected to be most improved in '09 compared to '08 season in 6 different categories. I had them ranked in order from Most Improved all the way down to the Least Improved and included the top 15 in each category along with the bottom 5.

In today's blog I have included my projections of the teams I thought would be most improved in rush offense heading into the 2009 season and how they finished in the final NCAA rankings.

In the coming days I will feature a different category in each blog and I think you will be happy with the results of the accuracy of my projections.

Most Improved Rush Offense 2009

Pre-Season Projection

Final Rankings

Rank	Team
1	Clemson
2	Middle Tenn
3	Michigan
4	Rutgers
5	Washington
6	Colorado
7	Wake Forest
8	UCLA
9	Minnesota
10	Notre Dame
11	USC
12	San Jose St
13	San Diego St
14	Arkansas
15	Arizona St

116	Louisiana
117	Connecticut
118	Rice
119	Tulsa
120	New Mexico

Rank	Team	09 Rush YPG	08 Rush YPG	Diff
11	Clemson	170.36	111.54	58.82
5	Middle Tenn	186	106.92	79.08
19	Michigan	186.17	147.58	38.59
54	Rutgers	134.38	128	6.38
18	Washington	139	99.33	39.67
98	Colorado	87.92	124.5	-36.58
50	Wake Forest	131.83	121.38	10.45
24	UCLA	114.62	82.75	31.87
68	Minnesota	99.46	103.85	-4.39
41	Notre Dame	128.25	109.69	18.56
92	USC	166.77	194.85	-28.08
73	San Jose St.	76.67	86.67	-10
58	San Diego St.	78.33	73.17	5.16
42	Arkansas	131.77	113.5	18.27
30	Arizona St.	119.25	89.08	30.17

120	Louisiana	136.92	263.67	-126.75
107	Connecticut	170.69	216.38	-45.69
96	Rice	109.25	143.69	-34.44
119	Tulsa	150.75	268	-117.25
117	New Mexico	100.25	208.25	-108

As you can see my projections were fairly accurate. 11 out of the top 15 (73%) teams I thought would be most improved saw their rush offense ypg increase in '09. All 5 of my top teams increased their rush offense by an avg of 36.79 ypg and even with counting the 4 teams who did not improve in '09, my top 15 had an avg improvement of 17.2 ypg!

In '08 the Clemson rush attack avg just 3.4 ypc, its lowest in 4 years and I thought they would be the most improved rush offense with a more experienced OL. Led by RB CJ Spiller (1212 yds, 5.6 ypc), the Tigers increased their rush offense by nearly 60 ypg in '09 and finished #11.

Coming into the season Middle Tennessee's OL had 99 career starts which tied for 11th most in the FBS and I thought the Blue Raider rush offense would go from a weakness to a strength in '09. Thanks to multi-threat QB Dwight Dasher (1154 rush yds, 5.2 ypc), the Blue Raiders rush offense improved by nearly 80 ypg in '09 and finished in the top 5 most improved.

My bottom 5 results were even more accurate. All of my 5 projected least improved teams saw their rush offense ypg decrease in '09 and all 5 of the teams including bowl bound Connecticut finished 96th or worse! Overall my bottom 5 saw their offensive rush ypg drop an avg of 86.43 ypg and 3 of the 5 teams actually finished in the bottom 5 just as I projected!

Coming into the season I thought New Mexico would have the least improved rush offense as they were switching to more of a pass oriented scheme under new HC Locksley. The Lobos would go on to finish #117 as their rush offense ypg dropped from 208.25 in '08 to just 100.25 in '09 a 108 ypg decrease. Also in my magazine I predicted Tulsa to have the #119 least improved rush offense and at the end of the season the Golden Hurricane would finish at exactly #119 with a 117.25 ypg decrease.

Overall 16 of the 20 teams (80%) that were featured in my magazine finished with either a higher or lower rush ypg just as I projected!

Here is a complete list of all 120 teams and how they fared from 2008 to 2009. The teams highlighted in yellow were the teams I had projected in my top 15 and the teams highlighted in green are those I projected to be in the bottom 5.

Most Improved Offensive Rush 2009

Rank	Name	09 Rush Off YPG	08 Rush Off YPG	Diff
1	Mississippi St.	227.58	100.58	127
2	Texas A&M	184.15	88.5	95.65
3	Temple	187	95.17	91.83
4	New Mexico St.	141.54	54.25	87.29
5	Middle Tenn	186	106.92	79.08
6	Auburn	212	137.5	74.5
7	SMU	109.77	41.42	68.35
8	Nevada	344.92	277.77	67.15
9	Kentucky	191.23	127.46	63.77
10	UAB	229.92	168.92	61
11	Clemson	170.36	111.54	58.82
12	North Texas	185.25	127.33	57.92
13	Utah St.	192.58	137.75	54.83
14	Kansas St.	179.92	132.5	47.42
15	Fresno St.	228.92	182.31	46.61
16	Iowa St.	180	138.42	41.58
17	Pittsburgh	180.31	139.08	41.23
18	Washington	139	99.33	39.67
19	Michigan	186.17	147.58	38.59
20	Tennessee	157.15	122.92	34.23
21	Central Mich.	167.64	133.69	33.95
22	Virginia Tech	208.15	174.36	33.79
23	Boise St.	186.07	152.31	33.76
24	UCLA	114.62	82.75	31.87
25	Idaho	164.69	133.17	31.52
26	ULM	183.92	152.67	31.25
27	Illinois	200.42	169.5	30.92
28	Buffalo	163.5	132.71	30.79
29	Alabama	215.07	184.64	30.43
30	Arizona St.	119.25	89.08	30.17
31	Western Ky.	172.83	143.92	28.91
32	UTEP	151.08	122.33	28.75
33	South Carolina	121.23	94.08	27.15
34	Vanderbilt	160	133.62	26.38
35	East Carolina	152.07	126.36	25.71
36	Northern Ill.	195.15	171.23	23.92
37	Georgia Tech	295.43	273.23	22.2
38	Cincinnati	138.69	117.64	21.05
39	TCU	239.54	220.23	19.31
40	Stanford	218.23	199.58	18.65
41	Notre Dame	128.25	109.69	18.56
42	Arkansas	131.77	113.5	18.27
43	UCF	130.54	113.25	17.29
44	Air Force	283.46	266.92	16.54
45	Florida Atlantic	152.42	138.77	13.65
46	Toledo	159.75	146.25	13.5
47	Georgia	161	148.31	12.69
48	BYU	145.69	134.38	11.31
49	Purdue	136.08	124.83	11.25
50	Wake Forest	131.83	121.38	10.45
51	North Carolina	132.85	122.62	10.23
52	Miami, FL	138	129.23	8.77
53	Michigan St.	136.85	130.15	6.7
54	Rutgers	134.38	128	6.38
55	Hawaii	100.46	94.5	5.96
56	FIU	104.25	98.67	5.58
57	South Florida	170.92	165.38	5.54
58	San Diego St.	78.33	73.17	5.16
59	UNLV	126.83	121.67	5.16
60	Utah	160.31	156.46	3.85
61	Ohio St.	195.38	192.46	2.92
62	Virginia	99.08	96.58	2.5
63	Arizona	159.38	158.38	1
64	North Carolina St.	120.92	123.15	-2.23
65	Mississippi	183.62	186.46	-2.84
66	Louisiana Tech	184.17	187.08	-2.91
67	Colorado St.	144.25	147.62	-3.37
68	Minnesota	99.46	103.85	-4.39
69	Western Mich.	112.33	116.85	-4.52
70	Boston College	136.92	142.86	-5.94
71	Wisconsin	203.85	211.15	-7.3
72	Florida	221.79	231.14	-9.35
73	San Jose St.	76.67	86.67	-10
74	Southern Miss.	181.38	192.46	-11.08
75	Navy	280.5	292.38	-11.88
76	Tulane	105.33	118.42	-13.09
77	Kansas	112.08	126.77	-14.69
78	Marshall	142.69	157.75	-15.06
79	Ohio	112	128.5	-16.5
80	California	169.46	186.23	-16.77
81	Oregon St.	139.85	158.08	-18.23
82	Troy	149.15	167.62	-18.47
83	Texas	147.57	167.46	-19.89
84	Eastern Mich.	126.25	148.17	-21.92
85	Syracuse	126.58	148.67	-22.09
86	Nebraska	147.07	169.77	-22.7
87	West Virginia	186.38	209.92	-23.54
88	Northwestern	117.54	141.77	-24.23
89	Washington St.	70.67	95.08	-24.41
90	Ball St.	159.42	184.5	-25.08
91	Missouri	127	153.79	-26.79
92	USC	166.77	194.85	-28.08
93	Florida St.	149.54	179.08	-29.54
94	Houston	129.64	161.15	-31.51
95	Texas Tech	84	117.85	-33.85
96	Rice	109.25	143.69	-34.44
97	Penn St.	169.77	205.85	-36.08
98	Colorado	87.92	124.5	-36.58
99	Memphis	158.25	194.85	-36.6
100	Army	203.58	241.42	-37.84
101	Miami, OH	70.08	108.08	-38
102	Maryland	105.75	144	-38.25
103	Louisville	125.17	164.5	-39.33
104	Wyoming	136.15	178.33	-42.18
105	Duke	63.5	106.17	-42.67
106	LSU	122.77	166.77	-44
107	Connecticut	170.69	216.38	-45.69
108	Akron	118.42	165.17	-46.75
109	Bowling Green	86.54	134	-47.46
110	Oregon	231.69	280.08	-48.39
111	Indiana	117.08	166.92	-49.84
112	Oklahoma St.	187.77	245.46	-57.69
113	Oklahoma	134.62	198.5	-63.88
114	Arkansas St.	135.25	203.33	-68.08
115	Iowa	114.23	188.69	-74.46
116	Baylor	100.58	195.75	-95.17
117	New Mexico	100.25	208.25	-108
118	Kent St.	114.58	230.58	-116
119	Tulsa	150.75	268	-117.25
120	Louisiana	136.92	263.67	-126.75