Daily Blog • January 2nd, 2010

Each day during bowl season in my daily blog, I will give you my forecasts on the bowl games taking place that day. My forecasts will include a detailed write-up with my computer’s projected box score including rushing and passing yards, points and turnovers along with a detailed write-up on each game.

Also check out the bowl matchup section to get the latest and greatest information on all the upcoming bowl games including, game by game stats, 2009 recaps, and checklists for every position and intangible.

Yesterday I had a 5-0 day in my forecasts including three outright upsets! I picked Florida to win big over Cincinnati as they had a 659-246 yard edge and I called for Auburn to win by 3 in the Outback Bowl! I hope to have another great day with today's forecasts on the five games. If you are looking for my Week 17 NFL Picks they will be in my blog tomorrow.

INTERNATIONAL BOWL
NORTHERN ILLINOIS VS USF
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 145
140
21
1.9
•••
USF
150
165
24
1.9
–

Gametime Projected Weather: Played in Rogers Centre (Dome).

Northern Illinois is more excited to be here.  Naturally USF has the talent edge and in this bowl game the Big East has won all three including the last two by 22 and 18 points. South Florida does have the most electrifying player on the field in QB BJ Daniels.  The Bulls also have 2 outstanding defensive ends to rush the passer.  If Northern Illinois is going to have a chance they need RB Chad Spann (938 rush yards, 5.94 ypc, 19 TDs) to have a big game.  Husky QB Chandler Harnish could have a breakout game if given time. On paper USF should win by 10-17 points but with the Huskies more excited I’ll call for the Bulls to escape by 3.
PHIL’S FORECAST: USF 24 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 21

 

PAPA JOHNS BOWL
CONNECTICUT VS SOUTH CAROLINA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CONNECTICUT 134
150
21
1.7
••••
SOUTH CAROLINA
141
290
26
2.4
–
Gametime Projected Weather: 37° Sunny Wind: NNW 10 mph

Connecticut has been a great story this season after losing cornerback Jasper Howard and still went 7-5 and had it not been for a couple of tough losses the Huskies could have had a great season.  UConn does have a large special teams edge (#31-108) and 3 times this season the running back combo of Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon have each topped 100 yards rushing.  South Carolina has a large edge on defense (#14-78) and they are more excited than normal with a chance of using this game as a springboard to next year.  With that large edge in defense I’ll call for the Gamecoccks to win this by 14.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SOUTH CAROLINA 31 CONNECTICUT 17

 

COTTON BOWL
MISSISSIPPI VS OKLAHOMA ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MISSISSIPPI 135
200
24
2.6
–
OKLAHOMA ST
165
150
22
2.0
–

Gametime Projected Weather: Played in Cowboys Stadium (Dome).

Oklahoma St suspended cornerback Perrish Cox who is not only the Cowboys top corner but also one of the top corners in the country. Cox is also their main KR (20.9) and PR (10.4) as his loss will be huge.  The Cowboys do get RB Kendall Hunter back and Ole Miss has struggled against spread offenses.  These two were both unusually ranked in the top 10 this preseason and neither lived up to expectations. This has become sort of the Redemption Bowl for both teams.  Expect Ole Miss RB/WR Dexter McCluster to have a big game and QB Jevan Snead to stay away from costly mistakes as I’ll call for the Rebels by 7.
PHIL’S FORECAST: MISSISSIPPI 31 OKLAHOMA ST 24

 

LIBERTY BOWL
ARKANSAS VS EAST CAROLINA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ARKANSAS 120
365
37
2.9
–
EAST CAROLINA
115
230
22
2.1
•••
Gametime Projected Weather: 29° Partly Cloudy then Clear Wind: NNE 5 mph

East Carolina coach Skip Holtz thinks this will be lower scoring than expected as his defense matches up well with high-powered offenses including winning the last 2 CUSA title games vs Houston.  Arkansas has suspended three players, which is reminiscent of Skip’s father Lou who suspended three of his top players in the 1978 Orange Bowl against Oklahoma and the Hogs responded with a big win.  Both teams are fired up to be here but I like the way Skip Holtz gets his team ready for big games as the Pirates keep it closer than expected.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ARKANSAS 31 EAST CAROLINA 27

 

ALAMO BOWL
MICHIGAN ST VS TEXAS TECH
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MICHIGAN ST 129
230
24
2.3
•
TEXAS TECH
51
415
36
2.0
–
Gametime Projected Weather: Played in Alamodome.

A bizarre game.  Michigan State has 14 players suspended including some key WRs and DBs and of course Texas Tech will be with out head coach Leach who also serves as the OC and play caller.  Neither team will be near their regular season capabilities but the crowd will favor Texas Tech as they have sold a majority of the tickets for this game. Would you rather have 14 players suspended or be without your head coach? We will find out an answer but I originally sided with Texas Tech and interim coach McNeill should have them pretty fired up.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TEXAS TECH 37 MICHIGAN ST 24

 

Conference Bowl Standings

Bowl Conference VS ConFerence Records
OVERALL
vs BCS CONF
W
L
%
W
L
%
MWC
4
0
100%
2
0
100%
INDEP
1
0
100%
1
0
100%
SUN BELT
1
0
100%
0
0
0
BIG 12
3
2
60%
3
1
75%
BIG 10
3
2
60%
3
2
60%
ACC
3
3
50%
3
3
50%
SEC
3
3
50%
3
3
50%
BIG EAST
2
2
50%
1
2
33%
WAC
1
1
50%
0
0
0
C USA
2
3
40%
0
1
0%
PAC 10
2
5
29%
1
3
25%
MAC
0
3
0%
0
1
0%

The MWC is a perfect 4-0 and has a chance to finish the postseason undefeated if TCU can beat Boise St in the Fiesta Bowl on Monday. The Sun Belt also has a chance to finish undefeated if Troy beats MAC champ Central Michigan in the GMAC on January 6th. The Big 12 and Big 10 have had decent postseasons as the Big 10 picked up a couple of big wins yesterday with Penn St beating LSU on a muddy field in the Capital One Bowl and Ohio St took care of Oregon in the Rose Bowl. It was the first win for the Big 10 in the Rose Bowl since 1999 (0-6)! Northwestern almost made it a perfect day for the conference but a fake field goal try failed in OT as Auburn beat the Wildcats 38-35 in an entertaining Outback Bowl. The SEC despite the LSU loss had a good day led by Florida's demolition of Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl as the Gators had a 659-246 yard edge! Finally the Big East which came into yesterday 2-0 lost both games including West Virginia's loss to Florida St in the Gator Bowl which gave Bobby Bowden a win in his final game.

Bowl Confidence Contest

Make sure to check the daily blog every day as we will be posting the standings here after every bowl game is played.

There will be two Top 50 leaderboards. The first one will be points won and the second is best win percentage of their points. Sometimes the early leaders are the ones that risked the most on the early bowls and they fall by the wayside as the contest goes on so that is why I will also keep track of those that have the best win percentage.

I have also added two columns to the leaderboards in today's blog and will include them from here on out. The first column shows how many points are left on the table. There were 595 possible points and with 9 games left some have wagered a lot more points than others so far. The 2nd column figures the maximum possible points one can finish with if all their picks win. As you can see some people farther down the leaderboard have an opportunity to finish with more points since they have risked less points so far.

After 25 bowl games William Meleski continues to lead the contest for the tenth day in a row with 315 points won and a 70% win %. However it will be interesting to see if he can hold onto to his lead in the next couple of days with only 67 points left. Ben Brin is in 2nd again with 355 points and Marc Ostrom moves up to 3rd with 352 points. Don Seebold is first in win % with 83% and he still has 175 points left.

I had a perfect 5-0 day yesterday and now have 284 points! There are still 9 bowl games remaining including five today! Remember 1st place wins $250, 2nd place gets $100 and a set of regionals and 3rd gets $50 and a set of regionals.

Thanks again to the near 1200 people that have entered. If you have any questions concerning your points or do not see your name in the Top 50 and think it should be please email Brandon@philsteele.com.

Here are the current leaderboards.

The Top 50 in Points Won

Rank
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Pts Left
Max Score
1
 William J Meleski
368
160
70%
23
67
435
2
 Ben Brin
355
147
71%
20
93
448
3
 Marc Ostrom
352
113
76%
6
130
482
4
 Don Seebold
349
71
83%
1
175
524
5
 Bernie Lin
345
107
76%
4
143
488
5
 Gary Cotton
345
169
67%
47
81
426
7
 Mike Connors
344
116
75%
8
135
479
8
 Mike Bambrick
341
153
69%
26
101
442
9
 Michael Mancini
340
180
65%
64
75
415
10
 Rusty Moreno
334
128
72%
15
133
467
11
 Jerry Applegate
333
141
70%
21
121
454
12
 Jeremy Ackerman
325
116
74%
11
154
479
13
 Patrick Hilt
324
121
73%
13
150
474
14
 Rick Perk
321
119
73%
12
155
476
15
 Gary Osborne
320
99
76%
3
176
496
15
 Dick Rosser
320
154
68%
40
121
441
17
 Steve MacDonald
318
119
73%
14
158
476
17
 John Roberts
318
145
69%
30
132
450
17
 Marsha Realgood
318
149
68%
33
128
446
20
 David Fingado
317
155
67%
46
123
440
20
 Jerad Risley
317
192
62%
150
86
403
22
 Jerry Holcombe
315
121
72%
16
159
474
22
 Greg Rockers
315
155
67%
48
125
440
22
 Mitchell Sanpei
315
191
62%
151
89
404
25
 Rich Ribera
314
161
66%
53
120
434
26
 Scott Boyce
313
150
68%
39
132
445
27
 Luis A Monroy
312
142
69%
29
141
453
27
 Steve M
312
158
66%
50
125
437
29
 Jason Dubeans
311
162
66%
58
122
433
30
 Mike Magee
307
98
76%
5
190
497
30
 Andy  Mickley
307
201
60%
207
87
394
30
 Lyell Marks
307
243
56%
437
45
352
33
 Troy Brown
306
158
66%
56
131
437
33
 Joe Brogenski
306
180
63%
127
109
415
35
 Donnie Holmann
305
98
76%
7
192
497
35
 Clyde Rardin
305
133
70%
24
157
462
35
 Jim Merriman
305
144
68%
34
146
451
38
 Richie Thomas
304
147
67%
44
144
448
39
 Bobby Welles
303
108
74%
10
184
487
39
 Chris Haynes
303
146
67%
41
146
449
39
 Jeremy Zinn
303
163
65%
71
129
432
39
 Roy Hiyama
303
163
65%
71
129
432
39
 Carole Wood
303
168
64%
89
124
427
39
 Dave Klaehn
303
211
59%
262
81
384
45
 Kristen Domonkos
302
135
69%
25
158
460
45
 Drew Smith
302
172
64%
107
121
423
45
 Kevin Parham
302
178
63%
129
115
417
48
 Jerry Chieffalo
301
153
66%
52
141
442
49
 Tim Johnston
299
122
71%
19
174
473
49
 Gary Grodin
299
185
62%
167
111
410

The Top 50 in Win %

Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Pts Left
Max Score
Don Seebold
349
71
83%
1
175
524
Gregory Ewers
258
67
79%
2
270
528
Gary Osborne
320
99
76%
3
176
496
Bernie Lin
345
107
76%
4
143
488
Mike Magee
307
98
76%
5
190
497
Marc Ostrom
352
113
76%
6
130
482
Donnie Holmann
305
98
76%
7
192
497
Mike Connors
344
116
75%
8
135
479
Gary McQuain
286
98
74%
9
211
497
Bobby Welles
303
108
74%
10
184
487
Jeremy Ackerman
325
116
74%
11
154
479
Rick Perk
321
119
73%
12
155
476
Patrick Hilt
324
121
73%
13
150
474
Steve MacDonald
318
119
73%
14
158
476
Rusty Moreno
334
128
72%
15
133
467
Jerry Holcombe
315
121
72%
16
159
474
Jonathan Willard
245
95
72%
17
255
500
Jim Martindale
254
99
72%
18
242
496
Tim Johnston
299
122
71%
19
174
473
Ben Brin
355
147
71%
20
93
448
Jerry Applegate
333
141
70%
21
121
454
Jeff Enzell
245
105
70%
22
245
490
William J Meleski
368
160
70%
23
67
435
Clyde Rardin
305
133
70%
24
157
462
Kristen Domonkos
302
135
69%
25
158
460
Jim Ryan
288
129
69%
26
178
466
Mike Bambrick
341
153
69%
27
101
442
Richard Bidnick
298
134
69%
28
163
461
Austin Huggins
273
123
69%
29
199
472
Luis A Monroy
312
142
69%
30
141
453
John Roberts
318
145
69%
31
132
450
Donald Huggins
258
118
69%
32
219
477
NY Gator
286
133
68%
33
176
462
Marsha Realgood
318
149
68%
34
128
446
Jim Merriman
305
144
68%
35
146
451
Brian Whittaker
263
125
68%
36
207
470
Rob Vanier
248
118
68%
37
229
477
Jack Hawn
278
133
68%
38
184
462
Scott Boyce
313
150
68%
39
132
445
Dick Rosser
320
154
68%
40
121
441
Chris Haynes
303
146
67%
41
146
449
Jason Bellinger
296
143
67%
42
156
452
Richie Thomas
304
147
67%
43
144
448
Mike Swerline
268
131
67%
44
196
464
David Fingado
317
155
67%
45
123
440
Gary Cotton
345
169
67%
46
81
426
Greg Rockers
315
155
67%
47
125
440
Dan Dale
262
129
67%
48
204
466
Steve M
312
158
66%
49
125
437
Adam Muscat
298
151
66%
50
146
444

Radio Contest Leaderboards

WKNR Cleveland, OH with Michael Reghi
Top 10 POINTS WON
Top 10 WIN %
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Gary Osborne
320
99
76%
1
Jason Dubeans
311
162
66%
3
Chris Haynes
303
146
67%
2
Dave Klaehn
303
211
59%
19
Anthony Chapman
279
160
64%
5
Richard Lavati
277
166
63%
6
David Dohar
275
199
58%
24
Ernie Sabo
272
145
65%
4
Mike Hay
271
175
61%
10
Paul Becker
271
186
59%
16
Mike Fraifogi
270
193
58%
21
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Gary Osborne
320
99
76%
1
Chris Haynes
303
146
67%
2
Jason Dubeans
311
162
66%
3
Ernie Sabo
272
145
65%
4
Anthony Chapman
279
160
64%
5
Richard Lavati
277
166
63%
6
Anthony Marcello
258
157
62%
7
Nathan Whitaker
268
164
62%
8
Jon Sweden
257
164
61%
9
Mike Hay
271
175
61%
10

Gary Osborne had a big day yesterday and now leads the KNR group with 320 points. Jason Dubeans is in 2nd with 311 points. The top 3 in points won are also the top 3 in win % with Chris Haynes jumping Jason for 2nd.

"All Bets Are Off" Sports Time Ohio Cleveland, OH
with Bruce Drennan
Top 10 POINTS WON
Top 10 WIN %
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Tim Johnston
299
122
71%
1
Bruce Drennan
287
251
53%
14
Gene Winters
276
252
52%
17
John McFarlane
275
197
58%
6
SCOTT FRANK
269
201
57%
8
Scott (wox11)
264
153
63%
2
Frank Cellura
259
197
57%
9
Matthew Goodman
255
180
59%
5
WADE ZILER
251
186
57%
7
NICK SCHWEMBERGER
250
174
59%
4
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Tim Johnston
299
122
71%
1
Scott (wox11)
264
153
63%
2
Matthew Slevey
230
159
59%
3
NICK SCHWEMBERGER
250
174
59%
4
Matthew Goodman
255
180
59%
5
John McFarlane
275
197
58%
6
WADE ZILER
251
186
57%
7
SCOTT FRANK
269
201
57%
8
Frank Cellura
259
197
57%
9
Jim Nalle
241
191
56%
10

Tim Johnston has had a couple of good days in a row and now leads the STO group with 299 points won and is also #1 in win % with 71%. Previous leaders Bruce Drennan and Gene Winters are 2nd and 3rd.

ESPN Radio 94.1 Virginia Beach, VA with Tony Mercurio
Top 10 POINTS WON
Top 10 WIN %
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Scott Boyce
313
150
68%
3
Richard Bidnick
298
134
69%
1
Tony Mercurio
298
158
65%
4
Don Lloyd
293
209
58%
8
David Crews
272
269
50%
15
Wade Hotsenpiller
266
223
54%
11
Dan Wagoner
264
177
60%
5
Beau Boughamer
258
180
59%
6
Dennis Castello
256
193
57%
9
Nick Mataragas
249
174
59%
7
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Richard Bidnick
298
134
69%
1
Rob Vanier
248
118
68%
2
Scott Boyce
313
150
68%
3
Tony Mercurio
298
158
65%
4
Dan Wagoner
264
177
60%
5
Beau Boughamer
258
180
59%
6
Nick Mataragas
249
174
59%
7
Don Lloyd
293
209
58%
8
Dennis Castello
256
193
57%
9
Phillip Todd
245
189
56%
10

After 5 bowl games yesterday not much changed in the 94.1 group with Scott Boyce #1 with 313 points while Richard Bidnick is 2nd with 298 points and #1 in win % with 69%.

The Sports Animal 790 AM Houston, TX
with Charlie Pallilo

Kevin Parham has taken the lead in ththe 790 group with 302 points and a 63% win %. Adam Muscat who had the lead for several days drops to 2nd with 298 points but is #1 in win % with 66%.