Daily Blog • January 4, 2010

Each day during bowl season in my daily blog, I will give you my forecasts on the bowl games taking place that day. My forecasts will include a detailed write-up with my computer’s projected box score including rushing and passing yards, points and turnovers along with a detailed write-up on each game.

On January 1st and 2nd my forecasts went 9-1 including 3 outright upsets!!

Also check out the bowl matchup section to get the latest and greatest information on the 4 upcoming bowl games including, game by game stats, 2009 recaps, and checklists for every position and intangible.

FIESTA BOWL
TCU VS BOISE ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TCU 232
160
33
2.8
–
BOISE ST
108
190
28
1.9
•

Gametime Projected Weather: 67° Mostly Clear Wind: ENE 5 mph (Dome may be closed).

This is an excellent matchup between two undefeated teams and a rematch from last year’s Poinsettia Bowl which TCU won 17-16.  The Horned Frogs finished the game with a 472-250 yard edge but had numerous blown opportunities.  They were intercepted at the Boise St 5, stopped on downs at Boise’s 34, and int’d again at the Boise 27 and despite a 246-106 yard edge trailed 13-7 at halftime. The Horned Frogs were able to score a couple of times in the 2nd half and and on the last play stopped Boise's famed Hook-and-Ladder which eventually turned into a fumble. TCU coach Patterson has said that this is a statement game and his teams have performed well in similar situations.  However Boise St won’t lay down and Petersen is an excellent coach as well.  TCU does have the talent edge and should come away with the victory in an exciting Fiesta Bowl.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TCU 27 Boise st 24

 

Conference Bowl Standings

Bowl Conference VS ConFerence Records
OVERALL
vs BCS CONF
W
L
%
W
L
%
MWC
4
0
100%
2
0
100%
BIG EAST
4
2
67%
2
2
33%
BIG 12
4
3
57%
4
2
67%
SEC
5
4
56%
4
4
50%
BIG TEN
3
3
50%
3
3
50%
ACC
3
3
50%
3
3
50%
WAC
1
1
50%
0
0
0
CUSA
2
4
33%
0
2
0%
PAC-10
2
5
29%
1
3
25%
MAC
0
4
0%
0
2
0%
INDEP*
1
0
100%
1
0
100%
SUN BELT*
1
0
100%
0
0
0

The MWC is a perfect 4-0 and has a chance to finish the postseason undefeated if TCU can beat Boise St in the Fiesta Bowl tonight. The Sun Belt also has a chance to finish undefeated if Troy beats MAC Champ Central Michigan in the GMAC Bowl on Wednesday. The Big East picked up a couple of victories on Saturday including Connecticut's upset of South Carolina in the PapaJohns.com Bowl. The Big 12 split their two games while the SEC went 2-1 including a head-to-head win over the Big 12 with Mississippi beating Oklahoma St in a mistake filled Cotton Bowl (12 TO's). After an impressive New Year's Day, the Big Ten dropped its only game Saturday with Michigan St losing to Texas Tech in the Alamo Bowl. CUSA suffered a tough loss in the Liberty Bowl as East Carolina had a 393-283 yard edge over Arkansas but missed four FG's including three late in their 20-17 OT loss. Finally the Pac-10 finished the bowl season a disappointing 2-5.

Bowl Confidence Contest

Make sure to check the daily blog every day as we will be posting the standings here after every bowl game is played.

There will be two Top 50 leaderboards. The first one will be points won and the second is best win percentage of their points. Sometimes the early leaders are the ones that risked the most on the early bowls and they fall by the wayside as the contest goes on so that is why I will also keep track of those that have the best win percentage.

I have also added two columns to the leaderboards. The first column shows how many points are left on the table. There were 595 possible points and with 4 games left some have wagered more points than others so far. The 2nd column figures the maximum possible points one can finish with if all their picks win. As you can see some people farther down the leaderboard have an opportunity to finish with more points since they have risked less points so far.

After 30 bowl games we have a new leader in Rusty Moreno who has 428 points and a 75% win %. Don Seebold is in great shape at #2 with 423 points and an 86% win % which easily ranks 1st. Don still has 101 points left on the board and has the highest possible max score of 524. In third is Donnie Holmann with 419 points and an 80% win % which ranks 2nd. William Meleski who led the contest for ten straight days fell down the leaderboard with a limited number of points left.

The Top 3 all have TCU winning tonight but with significant differences in points. Rusty Moreno has TCU for 2 while Don Seebold has TCU for 16. Donnie Holmann has the Horned Frogs for 31 and if the Frogs win tonight he will jump both Don and Rusty for first. If Boise St wins tonight Rick Perk would actually go from 7th to 1st since he has the Broncos for 30 points.

The past two bowl game days I have gone 9-1 with 170 points won to just 29 points lost (85.4%)! However it is probably too late for me to catch up to the leaders with 349 points. Remember 1st place wins $250, 2nd place gets $100 and a set of regionals and 3rd gets $50 and a set of regionals.

Thanks again to the near 1200 people that have entered. If you have any questions concerning your points or do not see your name in the Top 50 and think it should be please email Brandon@philsteele.com.

Here are the current leaderboards.

The Top 50 in Points Won

Rank
 Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Pts Left
Max Score
1
 Rusty Moreno
428
141
75%
6
26
454
2
 Don Seebold
423
71
86%
1
101
524
3
 Donnie Holmann
419
108
80%
2
68
487
4
 Marc Ostrom
414
154
73%
14
27
441
5
 Dick Rosser
409
159
72%
21
27
436
6
 Jeremy Ackerman
401
121
77%
4
73
474
7
 Rick Perk
399
143
74%
10
53
452
7
 Ben Brin
399
147
73%
13
49
448
7
 Jeremy Zinn
399
183
69%
57
13
412
10
 Joe Russo
393
174
69%
44
28
421
10
 Mike Bambrick
393
178
69%
51
24
417
12
 Bobby Welles
390
127
75%
5
78
468
13
 William J Meleski
389
196
66%
99
10
399
14
 Gary Grodin
385
185
68%
76
25
410
15
 Chris Metz
382
179
68%
69
34
416
16
 Jack Hawn
381
153
71%
22
61
442
17
 Mike Connors
380
165
70%
41
50
430
18
 Gary McQuain
379
113
77%
3
103
482
18
 Blake Ali
379
155
71%
28
61
440
20
 Clyde Rardin
378
134
74%
8
83
461
20
 Mike Magee
378
142
73%
17
75
453
20
 Bob Siciliano
378
183
67%
86
34
412
23
 John Tsuji
377
153
71%
25
65
442
23
 Kevin Demitt
377
161
70%
37
57
434
23
 Kristen Domonkos
377
164
70%
42
54
431
26
 Adam Muscat
375
168
69%
48
52
427
27
 Jerry Holcombe
374
140
73%
16
81
455
28
 Luis A Monroy
373
159
70%
36
63
436
29
 Patrick Hilt
372
139
73%
15
84
456
29
 Tim Johnston
372
151
71%
26
72
444
29
 Nicholas Jermstad
372
183
67%
91
40
412
32
 Wayne Schmoker
371
170
69%
56
54
425
32
 Gary Cotton
371
208
64%
184
16
387
34
 Louis Leiwalo
370
176
68%
71
49
419
34
 Lorin Dickinson
370
179
67%
85
46
416
36
 Mike Swerline
369
133
74%
12
93
462
36
 Bernie Lin
369
139
73%
18
87
456
38
 Jeff Enzell
368
132
74%
11
95
463
38
 Nathan Whitaker
368
164
69%
46
63
431
38
 Samuel Brown
368
171
68%
66
56
424
41
 Jim Martindale
367
126
74%
7
102
469
41
 Roy Hiyama
367
194
65%
131
34
401
41
 dan styklunas
367
197
65%
145
31
398
44
 Donald Huggins
366
142
72%
20
87
453
44
 Jim Ryan
366
153
71%
30
76
442
44
 Drew Smith
366
178
67%
87
51
417
44
 Natalie Lindsay
366
181
67%
94
48
414
44
 Michael Mancini
366
201
65%
163
28
394
49
 Jason Bellinger
365
158
70%
40
72
437
49
 Scott Boyce
365
186
66%
110
44
409
49
 Timothy Divis
365
199
65%
156
31
396

The Top 50 in Win %

Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Pts Left
Max Score
Don Seebold
423
71
86%
1
101
524
Donnie Holmann
419
108
80%
2
68
487
Gary McQuain
379
113
77%
3
103
482
Jeremy Ackerman
401
121
77%
4
73
474
Bobby Welles
390
127
75%
5
78
468
Rusty Moreno
428
141
75%
6
26
454
Jim Martindale
367
126
74%
7
102
469
Clyde Rardin
378
134
74%
8
83
461
Gregory Ewers
343
122
74%
9
130
473
Rick Perk
399
143
74%
10
53
452
Jeff Enzell
368
132
74%
11
95
463
Mike Swerline
369
133
74%
12
93
462
Ben Brin
399
147
73%
13
49
448
Marc Ostrom
414
154
73%
14
27
441
Patrick Hilt
372
139
73%
15
84
456
Jerry Holcombe
374
140
73%
16
81
455
Mike Magee
378
142
73%
17
75
453
Bernie Lin
369
139
73%
18
87
456
Gary Osborne
357
138
72%
19
100
457
Donald Huggins
366
142
72%
20
87
453
Dick Rosser
409
159
72%
21
27
436
Jack Hawn
381
153
71%
22
61
442
Don Armstrong
359
145
71%
23
91
450
Austin Huggins
348
141
71%
24
106
454
John Tsuji
377
153
71%
25
65
442
Tim Johnston
372
151
71%
26
72
444
Steven Sheffield
348
142
71%
27
105
453
Blake Ali
379
155
71%
28
61
440
Art Hartman
361
150
71%
29
84
445
Jim Ryan
366
153
71%
30
76
442
Michael Ramirez
353
149
70%
31
93
446
Frances Ward
362
153
70%
32
80
442
Scott (wox11)
362
153
70%
32
80
442
NY Gator
361
153
70%
34
81
442
Steve MacDonald
349
148
70%
35
98
447
Luis A Monroy
373
159
70%
36
63
436
Kevin Demitt
377
161
70%
37
57
434
Robert Bosco
351
150
70%
38
94
445
Cliff Caldwell
337
145
70%
39
113
450
Jason Bellinger
365
158
70%
40
72
437
Mike Connors
380
165
70%
41
50
430
Kristen Domonkos
377
164
70%
42
54
431
Phil Friel
360
157
70%
43
78
438
Joe Russo
393
174
69%
44
28
421
Courtney Moeller
360
160
69%
45
75
435
Nathan Whitaker
368
164
69%
46
63
431
Rick Bozich
345
154
69%
47
96
441
adam muscat
375
168
69%
48
52
427
Brian Whittaker
339
152
69%
49
104
443
Robert Hood
362
163
69%
50
70
432

Radio Contest Leaderboards

WKNR Cleveland, OH with Michael Reghi
Top 10 POINTS WON
Top 10 WIN %
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Nathan Whitaker
368
164
69%
2
Jack Norwillo
361
191
65%
8
Chris Haynes
358
173
67%
5
Gary Osborne
357
138
72%
1
Ernie Sabo
356
163
69%
3
Perrin Sah
355
171
67%
4
Kurt Latarski
352
230
60%
25
Anthony Chapman
349
180
66%
7
Greg Rowe
347
209
62%
13
Jason Johnson
340
229
60%
28
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Gary Osborne
357
138
72%
1
Nathan Whitaker
368
164
69%
2
Ernie Sabo
356
163
69%
3
Perrin Sah
355
171
67%
4
Chris Haynes
358
173
67%
5
David D'Amore
331
170
66%
6
Anthony Chapman
349
180
66%
7
Jack Norwillo
361
191
65%
8
Jon Sweden
335
183
65%
9
Jason Bosh
337
186
64%
10

Nathan Whitaker is the new leader in the KNR group with 368 points and a 69% win %. Gary Osborne who led the group yesterday still has the best win % with 72%.

"All Bets Are Off" Sports Time Ohio Cleveland, OH
with Bruce Drennan
Top 10 POINTS WON
Top 10 WIN %
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Tim Johnston
372
151
71%
1
Scott (wox11)
362
153
70%
2
NICK SCHWEMBERGER
359
185
66%
4
Matthew Slevey
344
159
68%
3
Frank Cellura
336
201
63%
5
WADE ZILER
325
225
59%
8
Gene Winters
325
254
56%
15
Bruce Drennan
322
261
55%
21
Eddie Grubb
319
222
59%
9
John McFarlane
319
227
58%
12
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Tim Johnston
372
151
71%
1
Scott (wox11)
362
153
70%
2
Matthew Slevey
344
159
68%
3
NICK SCHWEMBERGER
359
185
66%
4
Frank Cellura
336
201
63%
5
JOSH SCHOTT
314
204
61%
6
Matthew Goodman
311
208
60%
7
WADE ZILER
325
225
59%
8
Eddie Grubb
319
222
59%
9
Kevin Wise
317
221
59%
10

Tim Johnston continues to lead the STO group with 372 points and a win% of 71%. Scott (wox11) is in 2nd with 362 points and a 70% win %.

ESPN Radio 94.1 Virginia Beach, VA with Tony Mercurio
Top 10 POINTS WON
Top 10 WIN %
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Scott Boyce
365
186
66%
1
Dan Wagoner
347
208
63%
5
Richard Bidnick
339
173
66%
2
Tony Mercurio
339
202
63%
4
Rob Vanier
327
178
65%
3
Dennis Castello
316
203
61%
6
Don Lloyd
316
236
57%
12
Phillip Todd
315
210
60%
8
Brad McMasters
315
249
56%
14
Wade Hotsenpiller
314
249
56%
15
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Scott Boyce
365
186
66%
1
Richard Bidnick
339
173
66%
2
Rob Vanier
327
178
65%
3
Tony Mercurio
339
202
63%
4
Dan Wagoner
347
208
63%
5
Dennis Castello
316
203
61%
6
Willy Hrachovina
299
195
61%
7
Phillip Todd
315
210
60%
8
Nick Mataragas
300
202
60%
9
Beau Boughamer
299
203
60%
10

Scott Boyce continues to lead the 94.1 group with 365 points and 66% win %. Dan Wagoner is 2nd with 347 points while Richard Bidnick is tied with Scott Boyce for first in win %.

The Sports Animal 790 AM Houston, TX
with Charlie Pallilo

Adam Muscat retook the lead in the 790 group and now has 375 points and a 69% win %. Kevin Parham is in 2nd with 346 points and a 61% win %.