Daily Blog • January 6, 2010

Each day during bowl season in my daily blog, I will give you my forecasts on the bowl games taking place that day. My forecasts will include a detailed write-up with my computer’s projected box score including rushing and passing yards, points and turnovers along with a detailed write-up on each game.

My forecasts have gone 10-2 (83.3%) in the last 12 with 4 outright upsets including yesterdays Iowa upset of Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl!!

Also check out the bowl matchup section to get the latest and greatest information on the 4 upcoming bowl games including, game by game stats, 2009 recaps, and checklists for every position and intangible.

GMAC BOWL
CENTRAL MICHIGAN VS TROY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 129
285
32
1.7
–
TROY
126
325
25
2.4
–

Gametime Projected Weather: 34° Clear Wind: NE 2 mph

Central Michigan will be without coach Butch Jones and will be led by interim coach Steve Stripling. This should be a very entertaining game with two teams flying under the radar. CMU was clearly the best team in the MAC and this year finally had an outstanding defense to go along with QB Dan LeFevour and their potent offense as only 1 non-BCS team came within ten points of the Chippewas. One reason to watch is LeFevour who figures to be an NFL draft pick and is the first player in Division I history to top 12,000 pass yards and have 2,500+ rush yards. He also has the record for most total touchdowns in a career with 147. Meanwhile Troy has plenty of weapons including DE Brandon Lang (69 tackles, 7.5 sacks, 3 TFL) who is also an NFL prospect. Troy was clearly the best team in the Sun Belt this year only giving up yards late in the game with the outcome already decided. Troy does feature QB Levi Brown (3868 yards, 65%, 22-9 ratio) and a top notch defense. The MAC has lost 14 bowl games in a row as this figures to be a toss up that could be decided by a late field goal. I'll side with the team with the more stability on the coaching staff.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TROY 28 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 27

 

Conference Bowl Standings

Bowl Conference VS Conference Records
OVERALL
vs BCS CONF
W
L
%
W
L
%
MWC
4
1
80%
2
0
100%
BIG EAST
4
2
67%
2
2
50%
BIG 12
4
3
57%
4
2
67%
BIG 10
4
3
57%
4
3
57%
SEC
5
4
56%
4
4
50%
WAC
2
2
50%
0
0
0
ACC
3
4
43%
3
4
43%
C USA
2
4
33%
0
2
0%
PAC 10
2
5
29%
1
3
25%
MAC
0
4
0%
0
2
0%
INDEP
1
0
100%
1
0
100%
SUN BELT
1
0
100%
0
0
0

The MWC lost its first game of the bowl season on Monday in their most important bowl with Boise St beating TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. The Sun Belt has a chance to finish 2-0 if Troy beats MAC Champ Central Michigan in the GMAC Bowl tonight. Meanwhile the MAC has a 14 game bowl losing streak. The Big East will finish the bowl season a respectable 4-2 but did get trounced in their BCS game. The Big 12 and SEC have had similar bowl seasons with the Big 12 having a slight advantage in win % and are 4-2 vs BCS conference teams. The National Title game on Thursday between Alabama (SEC) and Texas (Big 12) will decide which conference had the better post season. The Big 10 had their best bowl season in years winning four games over AP Top 15 teams capped off by last nights Iowa win over #9 Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl. Coming into this season the Big 10 was just 9-20 in bowl games from 2005-08 including 1-6 last year.

Bowl Confidence Contest

After 32 bowl games we have a new leader in Don Seebold who has 445 points and a 84% win %. Don has been mentioned in this blog several times the past week as somebody to look out for with his high win % and he finally took the lead with just two bowl games left. Rusty Moreno stays in 2nd with 440 points while yesterdays leader Rick Perk dropped to 3rd even though he had the Hawkeyes winning.

If Central Michigan wins tonight Don Seebold will have locked up 1st place in the contest even with the national title game remaining. Rick Perk would jump Rusty Moreno for 2nd place and Rusty will drop to 3rd. However if Troy wins tonight the contest will get very interesting with Rusty Moreno jumping Don for 1st since he has Troy for 11. Then it would come down to the national title game with Don having Alabama for 34 while Rusty has Texas for 1.

Remember 1st place wins $250, 2nd place gets $100 and a set of regionals and 3rd gets $50 and a set of regionals.

Thanks again to the near 1200 people that have entered. If you have any questions concerning your points or do not see your name in the Top 50 and think it should be please email Brandon@philsteele.com.

Here are the current leaderboards.

The Top 50 in Points Won

Rank
 Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Pts Left
Max Score
1
 Don Seebold
445
87
84%
1
63
508
2
 Rusty Moreno
440
143
75%
2
12
452
3
 Rick Perk
433
143
75%
4
19
452
4
 Gary Osborne
423
138
75%
3
34
457
4
 Marc Ostrom
423
164
72%
9
8
431
6
 Donnie Holmann
419
147
74%
5
29
448
7
 Jeremy Ackerman
413
152
73%
7
30
443
8
 Mike Bambrick
412
178
70%
21
5
417
9
 Dick Rosser
409
166
71%
13
20
429
10
 Jeremy Zinn
402
185
68%
28
8
410
11
 Joe Russo
401
174
70%
22
20
421
12
 Ben Brin
400
164
71%
14
31
431
13
 Jim Martindale
399
157
72%
10
39
438
14
 Chris Metz
398
190
68%
36
7
405
15
 Patrick Hilt
395
145
73%
6
55
450
15
 John Tsuji
395
153
72%
8
47
442
15
 Clyde Rardin
395
165
71%
17
35
430
15
 Kristen Domonkos
395
168
70%
18
32
427
19
 Donald Huggins
392
174
69%
25
29
421
19
 Dean Duff
392
193
67%
43
10
402
19
 Roy Hiyama
392
194
67%
48
9
401
22
 Pat Fleming
391
181
68%
30
23
414
23
 Bobby Welles
390
158
71%
12
47
437
24
 Tim Johnston
389
167
70%
20
39
428
24
 Mike Magee
389
175
69%
27
31
420
24
 William J Meleski
389
203
66%
61
3
392
27
 Gary Grodin
388
185
68%
35
22
410
28
 Blake Ali
387
165
70%
19
43
430
28
 Samuel Brown
387
173
69%
26
35
422
30
 Courtney Moeller
386
191
67%
47
18
404
31
 Christopher Haynes
384
180
68%
31
31
415
31
 Chris Haynes
384
180
68%
32
31
415
31
 Kevin Demitt
384
181
68%
33
30
414
31
 Al Nagy
384
191
67%
50
20
404
35
 Jason Bellinger
383
159
71%
15
53
436
35
 adam muscat
383
189
67%
46
23
406
37
 Jack Hawn
381
182
68%
38
32
413
37
 Louis Leiwalo
381
204
65%
75
10
391
39
 Gary Magnus
380
153
71%
11
62
442
39
 Mike Connors
380
187
67%
42
28
408
39
 Michael Mancini
380
201
65%
66
14
394
39
 dan styklunas
380
206
65%
83
9
389
43
 Gary McQuain
379
158
71%
16
58
437
43
 Jerry Villela
379
167
69%
23
49
428
45
 Bob Siciliano
378
201
65%
71
16
394
46
 Frances Ward
377
180
68%
37
38
415
47
 Dan Maurer
376
205
65%
87
14
390
47
 Lisa DiBello
376
208
64%
96
11
387
49
 Stacey Karkoff
375
191
66%
58
29
404
49
 Scott Boyce
375
201
65%
77
19
394
49
 NICK SCHWEMBERGER
375
202
65%
80
18
393
49
 Nicholas Jermstad
375
206
65%
92
14
389

The Top 50 in Win %

Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Pts Left
Max Score
Don Seebold
445
87
84%
1
63
508
Rusty Moreno
440
143
75%
2
12
452
Gary Osborne
423
138
75%
3
34
457
Rick Perk
433
143
75%
4
19
452
Donnie Holmann
419
147
74%
5
29
448
Patrick Hilt
395
145
73%
6
55
450
Jeremy Ackerman
413
152
73%
7
30
443
John Tsuji
395
153
72%
8
47
442
Marc Ostrom
423
164
72%
9
8
431
Jim Martindale
399
157
72%
10
39
438
Gary Magnus
380
153
71%
11
62
442
Bobby Welles
390
158
71%
12
47
437
Dick Rosser
409
166
71%
13
20
429
Ben Brin
400
164
71%
14
31
431
Jason Bellinger
383
159
71%
15
53
436
Gary McQuain
379
158
71%
16
58
437
Clyde Rardin
395
165
71%
17
35
430
Kristen Domonkos
395
168
70%
18
32
427
Blake Ali
387
165
70%
19
43
430
Tim Johnston
389
167
70%
20
39
428
Mike Bambrick
412
178
70%
21
5
417
Joe Russo
401
174
70%
22
20
421
Jerry Villela
379
167
69%
23
49
428
Austin Huggins
372
164
69%
24
59
431
Donald Huggins
392
174
69%
25
29
421
Samuel Brown
387
173
69%
26
35
422
Mike Magee
389
175
69%
27
31
420
Jeremy Zinn
402
185
68%
28
8
410
Bernie Lin
369
170
68%
29
56
425
Pat Fleming
391
181
68%
30
23
414
Christopher Haynes
384
180
68%
31
31
415
Chris Haynes
384
180
68%
32
31
415
Kevin Demitt
384
181
68%
33
30
414
Jeff Enzell
368
175
68%
34
52
420
Gary Grodin
388
185
68%
35
22
410
Chris Metz
398
190
68%
36
7
405
Frances Ward
377
180
68%
37
38
415
Jack Hawn
381
182
68%
38
32
413
Tom Guertin
356
172
67%
39
67
423
Art Hartman
363
177
67%
40
55
418
Jerry McHugh
370
182
67%
41
43
413
Mike Connors
380
187
67%
42
28
408
Dean Duff
392
193
67%
43
10
402
Mike Swerline
369
182
67%
44
44
413
Luis A Monroy
373
184
67%
45
38
411
Adam Muscat
383
189
67%
46
23
406
Courtney Moeller
386
191
67%
47
18
404
Roy Hiyama
392
194
67%
48
9
401
Marsha Realgood
364
181
67%
49
50
414
Al Nagy
384
191
67%
50
20
404

Radio Contest Leaderboards

WKNR Cleveland, OH with Michael Reghi
Top 10 POINTS WON
Top 10 WIN %
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Gary Osborne
423
138
75%
1
Chris Haynes
384
180
68%
2
Nathan Whitaker
368
196
65%
3
Jason Dubeans
367
199
65%
4
Jack Norwillo
362
198
65%
5
Ernie Sabo
356
215
62%
7
Perrin Sah
355
196
64%
6
Kurt Latarski
355
234
60%
16
Richard Lavati
354
225
61%
14
Anthony Chapman
349
218
62%
12
Greg Rowe
349
220
61%
13
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Gary Osborne
423
138
75%
1
Chris Haynes
384
180
68%
2
Nathan Whitaker
368
196
65%
3
Jason Dubeans
367
199
65%
4
Jack Norwillo
362
198
65%
5
Perrin Sah
355
196
64%
6
Ernie Sabo
356
215
62%
7
Paul Becker
345
210
62%
8
Jon Sweden
335
205
62%
9
Raymond Bencivengo
346
215
62%
10

Gary Osborne is starting to run away with the KNR group with 423 points and a 75% win %. Gary has moved way up the leaderboard with his last three bowl games going a perfect 92-0 in points. Chris Haynes is in 2nd with 384 points and 68% win %.

"All Bets Are Off" Sports Time Ohio Cleveland, OH
with Bruce Drennan
Top 10 POINTS WON
Top 10 WIN %
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Tim Johnston
389
167
70%
1
NICK SCHWEMBERGER
375
202
65%
3
Scott (wox11)
362
188
66%
2
Frank Cellura
358
201
64%
4
Matthew Slevey
344
210
62%
5
John McFarlane
341
237
59%
7
JOSH SCHOTT
338
231
59%
6
WADE ZILER
334
243
58%
9
Gene Winters
326
258
56%
13
Bruce Drennan
324
264
55%
17
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Tim Johnston
389
167
70%
1
Scott (wox11)
362
188
66%
2
NICK SCHWEMBERGER
375
202
65%
3
Frank Cellura
358
201
64%
4
Matthew Slevey
344
210
62%
5
JOSH SCHOTT
338
231
59%
6
John McFarlane
341
237
59%
7
Matthew Goodman
313
218
59%
8
WADE ZILER
334
243
58%
9
Greg Hertler
323
242
57%
10

Tim Johnston continues to lead the STO group with 389 points and a win % of 70%. Nick Schwemberger is 2nd with 375 points.

ESPN Radio 94.1 Virginia Beach, VA with Tony Mercurio
Top 10 POINTS WON
Top 10 WIN %
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Scott Boyce
375
201
65%
1
Dan Wagoner
347
245
59%
6
Richard Bidnick
339
226
60%
3
Tony Mercurio
339
227
60%
4
Willy Hrachovina
333
228
59%
5
Rob Vanier
327
178
65%
2
Phillip Todd
327
240
58%
8
Don Lloyd
323
269
55%
13
Wade Hotsenpiller
321
251
56%
10
Brad Mcmasters
318
265
55%
14
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Scott Boyce
375
201
65%
1
Rob Vanier
327
178
65%
2
Richard Bidnick
339
226
60%
3
Tony Mercurio
339
227
60%
4
Willy Hrachovina
333
228
59%
5
Dan Wagoner
347
245
59%
6
Nick Mataragas
316
229
58%
7
Phillip Todd
327
240
58%
8
Dennis Castello
316
246
56%
9
Wade Hotsenpiller
321
251
56%
10

Scott Boyce continues to lead the 94.1 group with 375 points and a 65% win %. Dan Wagoner is 2nd with 347 points and a 59% win %. Rob Vanier is tied for first with Scott Boyce in win % with 65%.

The Sports Animal 790 AM Houston, TX
with Charlie Pallilo

Adam Muscat leads the 790 group and now has 383 points and a 67% win %. Kevin Parham is in 2nd with 367 points and a 62% win %.