AFC WILDCARD •  Saturday 4:30 ET • NBC

Rex Ryan took the same formula that got the 2008 Ravens into the playoffs with a rookie HC and QB by relying on their #1 rush attack and #1 defense. Sanchez is the 1st rookie QB to start and win the first 3 games of a year (202 ypg 59% 4-2) since 1969. He then averaged 169 ypg (49%) with a 6-14 ratio in his next 7 starts (1-6) until Ryan got involved with the "color code system." Since then he's avg 131 ypg (59%) 2-4 except for the Tampa Bay game (knee sprain). The Jets boldly traded for Edwards and he still has a tendency to drop balls (49% catch rate with Jets). Cotchery is back to being a solid #2 for the team and TE Keller rounds out a decent receiving unit. The backbone of the #20 offense is RB Jones who along with San Diego's Tomlinson and St Louis's Jackson are the only active RB's with 5 straight 1,000 yard seasons. Jones finished 3rd in rushing this year thanks to a formidable OL that has started all 16 games together this year. Over the last 6 regular season games the defense has held opposing QB's to a combined 33.7 passer rating with 1054 ypg (43%) 1-10 ratio.

 The Jets are the 1st team to lead the NFL in scoring defense, total defense and rush offense since the 1986 Bears. The best NFL CB for '09 is Revis who leads the NFL with 37 pass deflections and hasn't allowed an opposing WR to have more than 50 yds this year. The ILB's are Scott and Harris who didn't miss a beat with the loss of NT Jenkins in run support. While the Jets are just 18th in sacks it's misleading as they own an 8-17 ratio. Shaun Ellis is a rare active pass rushing DE in a 3-4 (hybrid) and has 6.5 sacks. Pouha has done a good job taking over at NT since the loss of Jenkins and NYJ have allowed 93 ypg rush (3.6) since 10/18 (Buffalo). The Jets ST are an avg group (#18) which isn't bad as they've cycled 7 punters thru since the draft and aren't the same with the loss of Washington.

            With the return of a healthy Carson Palmer the expectations were for Cincinnati to return to its pass oriented days but this year's #24 offense has been very balanced (51/49 run/pass) thanks to Benson. Despite missing 2.5 games with a hip injury, Benson has set a Cincy record with six 100 yard games with 2 coming vs the Ravens. While the run game has been an asset the #26 pass attack has struggled. While Ochocinco has rebounded after last year (53 receptions, 10.2 ypc ) with 72 receptions (14.5 ypc), Free agent pickup Coles hasn't filled the shoes of Houshmanzadeh (92 rec, 9.8 ypc last year). The loss of Chris Henry removed the speed threat of the passing game and allows defenses to double Ochocinco. They lost TE Reggie Kelly (Achilles) in the preseason and the TE spot has been below avg. The most improved unit in the NFL is arguably CIN's OL which gave up 51 sacks, 3.9 ypc and only three 100 yard rushing games last year. Only RG Bobbie Williams is in the same spot as the 2008 unit and TY's OL has started 15 games together, allowed 29 sacks, seven 100 yard rushing games with a 4.1 ypc all without 1st RD DC Andre Smith for most of the year.

 Cincinnati calls itself the "Scrap Iron" defense as it's cobbled together with young players and free agent castoffs. The best player on the DL is run stuffer Peko (23 tackles) and Cincinnati allowed 82 ypg (3.8) prior to him missing 4 games with a knee scope and 104 ypg (4.0 ypc) when he was out. The biggest injury for CIN's #4 defense this year was the loss of DE Odom (Achilles) and he still leads Cincy with 8 sacks but 11 players have 1 sack this year. The LB's also took a hit with the loss of Maualuga (broken leg) who along with the return of Keith Rivers was forming the backbone of a solid unit for the future. The strength of the defense is the CB's as Hall and Joseph became the 1st Bengals since 1985 to have 6 int each. The Bengals special teams are below avg (#19) though K Graham remains very dependable (4th in career FG accuracy).

            Prior to last weeks game a member of the Cincinnati media asked Marvin Lewis if the team was excited about playing on Sunday night football as the Bengals had largely been snubbed by the NFL for flex scheduling at the end of the year. Lewis replied that the team couldn’t care less as it wasn’t at Paul Brown Stadium & that the Cincinnati fans weren’t there to enjoy it. The Bengals had no interest in last weeks game whatsoever & I wasn’t surprised that they lost 37-0 with just 72 total yards. The Jets have basically been allowed to slide into the playoffs with the Colts & Bengals lying down in their last two games. Now we have the Jets who are openly proclaiming themselves as “the Super Bowl favorites” on the road vs a team they just embarrassed on national TV. It is expected to be just as cold as last week but not as windy which plays to the Bengals here. Palmer has played his best ball vs Ravens style defenses & won’t be intimidated here. Also keep in mind that Marvin Lewis used to be a Ravens DC & will have a good idea of what Ryan will bring to the table here. Cincinnati will also have 3 defensive starters (FS Crocker, DE Geathers DT Peko) who sat out last weeks game as well as RB Benson here. The Bengals do have issues that will limit them later but I feel that the home team with a much more experienced QB vs a very young rookie QB in his 1^st playoff game on the road is the better pick.

FORECAST: BENGALS 24 JETS 10

NFC WILDCARD • Saturday 8:00 ET • NBC

The Eagles are one of the most forward thinking teams in the NFL and moved to ensure their offensive continuity in the offseason. While still very pass heavy (59/41 pass/run) This year the offense was insulated from the injury to RB Westbrook who had been the focus of Andy Reid's system. McNabb is the focal point for the #11 offense and passed for 273 ypg (58%) with a 7-4 ratio in December. Philly's offense lived and died by the big play this year and the best weapon is WR Jackson whose 18.5 ypc is #1 in the NFL. TE Celek had a breakout season in his 3rd year placing 6th in the NFL for receptions by a TE and 4th in receiving yds. The Eagles have had problems with its #3 WR this year due to injuries but rookie Maclin is 3rd on the team in receptions despite a foot injury which hampered him at the end of the year. Philly's #29 run game has never been a priority for Reid but the combo of McCoy, Westbrook and FB Weaver combined for 1,234 yds (4.3 ypc) which would be the #9 rusher in 2009. PHI's OL was a mess at the start of the season due to injuries and line did not practice as a unit in preseason. While the OL has had 72 starts together they have fielded 5 different OL combos and are 21st in sacks allowed this year (1 every 14.6). The OL also sustained a huge loss when center Jackson (ACL) went down vs DEN and it struggled in the season finale.

PHI's #12 defense is a bit of surprise this year especially since all 3 starting LB's spots are manned by different players vs the opening week. Philadelphia made a great trade with St Louis midseason picking up Witherspoon who can play WLB/MLB but the Eagles have been very vulnerable to quality receiving TE's this year. Philadelphia finished 3rd in sacks by this year and they do have an elite pass rusher in DE Cole (12.5) who finished 6th in the NFL in sacks and DE Parker (8) tied for 20th. PHI has traditionally been very deep at CB under Reid and the tandem of Samuel and Brown have 14 int combined this year and Hanson is a reliable nickel CB. Philadelphia is only 25th in our special teams rankings despite a great year by Jackson (15.2) on PR's as their KR defense is giving up 23.5 ypr. K Akers has had a strong year hitting 12 of 16 from 40+.

            What makes this year's Dallas team better than before is addition by subtraction as the team got rid of distractions. Romo had a banner season breaking his own franchise records for yards, completions and 300 yard games (8) despite some questionable playcalling during the year by OC Garrett. He also had a career low 9 int with 2 of those being on fluky plays that weren't his fault and he tied Rodgers and Brees for 2nd with 39 passes of 25 or more yds. Fifteen went to Austin who wasn't even a starting WR prior to the Kansas City game. Austin finished 2009 3rd in receiving yards and 7th in ypc. Witten remains Romo's favorite target and finished 2nd behind Clark for receptions and yards by a TE. Crayton is a very fast but inconsistent #3 WR and he made up for his demotion avg 12.1 on PR avg this year. Roy Williams has become a very expensive afterthought and decoy in the Cowboy system mainly due to his 44% catch rate this year. Dallas has one of the deepest RB units in the NFL with Barber being the power back, Jones the speed option and Choice being a balance between the 2. Together they have combined for the #7 rush attack and their 4.8 is tied with Carolina for 2nd this year. The OL has only had 2 lineups this year with 4 of the 5 OL starting all 16 games.

The #9 defense is built around OLB Ware who tied for 7th with 11 sacks this year. Dallas was built big at LB which has helped it finish 4th in rush defense this year and only allowed 55 ypg rush (3.0) in its last four games. Jay Ratliff has really stepped up his game in 2009 & is a solid run stuffing NT who provides some quality interior pass rush as well. Keith Brooking was just the veteran leadership the Cowboys needed on defense & he is a huge difference in Phillips schemes as he shoots the A gaps depending on how Ratliff moves. A pleasant surprise for the Cowboys defense has been the surge in play of Anthony Spencer late in the season. The Cowboys #20 pass defense is a bit misleading as while they don't have a true passing defense Safety they have good CB's and teams have had to air it out more due to the offense. Mike Jenkins has taken over the #1 CB role from Newman who remains a solid defender but he’s been nicked up by injuries. Hamlin is the glue that holds the secondary together & while not spectacular Sensabaugh is an upgrade over previous years at SS. Dallas has my #4 special teams this year due to good coverage units, McBriar having a 39.9 net and Crayton on PR's.

            The Cowboys dominated the Eagles last week with a 474-228 yard edge. Philly couldn’t get the offense moving due to the crowd & the OL adjusting to the loss of Center Jamaal Jackson. The good news is that Nick Cole gets another week of work in practice with McNabb to smooth out play calls. This is huge as McNabb is the most sacked QB in the playoffs right now (1 every 12.7 pass attempts) aside from Rodgers. The Eagles are 7-0 in their 1^st playoff game of the season under Andy Reid & last weeks blowout loss will only have him come back with a better game plan. This will be the 19^th time that a team that has gone 2-0 vs another team meets up for the 3^rd time in a year. In the 13 times the 2-0 team is at home they are 9-4. The Cowboys have the advantage with their defense & their run game here backed up by homefield advantage. I think this will be a higher scoring game as both QB’s will know what adjustments to make vs the defenses but it will be close.

FORECAST: COWBOYS 31 EAGLES 27