Daily Blog • June 18, 2010

As you can tell by going through the magazine there is very little advertising and there are several pages that are left out due to space constraints. One article I wanted to expand on was starters lost during the year. (see Football 365 Days A Year Pg 17, 314)

Remember when Oklahoma won the National Title in 2000? Not a single OU starter lost a single start due to injury! My research has shown that teams that benefited from very few injuries, in this case 6 or less, usually have a weaker season the next year.

The bottom line is, teams that have suffered a lot of injuries the previous year will generally have a better year the next season. A lot of backups were forced to play during the injury-riddled year, gaining valuable experience and the team figures to not be so injury-prone the next year.

In a study over the last 6 years, my research shows that if a team had 32 or more starts lost to injury the prior season, they improved or had the same record the next year on 48 out of 58 occasions for an 82.8% success rate. How about teams that are really banged up? Well from 2001-2005 12 teams went through seasons of having 40 or more combined starts lost and ALL 12 had the same or better record the next season. It surprises me that 17 teams met that criteria in 2006-’07 but only 7 had a stronger record the next year and 9 had a weaker record.

In 2008, Utah was at the top of the chart with 51 starts lost to injury and they went from 9-4 to 13-0 and #2 in the country! Last year was another solid year as 11 teams had 40 or more starts lost to injury in ‘08 and 8 of the 11 improved their records (72.7%!). Here are the teams that suffered 32 or more starts lost to injury last year:

Rank

Team

#

1

Washington St

67

2

Tennessee

44

3

Vanderbilt

42

3

Oklahoma

42

5

Syracuse

41

6

Oklahoma St

40

7

Colorado St

38

8

Arkansas St

37

9

San Jose St

35

10

E Michigan

34

10

Kentucky

34

12

Hawaii

33

13

Boston College

32

As you can see Washington St led the country with 67 starts lost and it was one of the main reasons the Cougars finished 1-11. Oklahoma played for the National Title in 2008 but last year suffered some major injuries. TE Jermaine Gresham was OFY in August and QB Sam Bradford was injured at the end of the 1H in the opener vs BYU. Bradford was able to return for Baylor game but then was KO’d for the year the following week against Texas. Overall the Sooners lost 42 starts to injury, which was tied for 3rd most in the country and was a major factor in the Sooners going just 8-5 last year. With QB Landry Jones and some of the other backups gaining valuable experience last year I think the Sooners will bounce back in a big way this year and naturally not get hit with the injury bug for the 2nd year in a row.

Colorado St was another team coming off a solid season in 08’ (7-6) and actually started 3-0 last year. However the Rams suffered several injuries and dropped their last nine games of the season. They shockingly became the first MWC team to lose eight conference games and they had zero conference wins for the first time since 1981! Look for 10 or 11 of these teams to rebound this year and improve their record.

Now let's look at the teams that had great fortune with very few injuries. With teams playing a 12 game schedule, I went for the magic number of 6 lost, figuring that is less than one half of one starter lost to injury during the year. Over the past 6 years only 17 of the 47 teams (36.2%) that had this good fortune managed to improve their record the next year (one did have same record LY)! In 2008, Illinois (2 sts lost) went from the Rose Bowl to a losing season and Purdue (4 sts lost) went from 8-5 to 4-8. Last year Tulsa (5 sts lost 2008) went from 11-3 to 5-7.  There were a lot of teams (16) that had this good fortune last year.

Rank

Team

#

1

Oregon St

2

1

Kansas

2

3

Purdue

3

3

Army

3

3

Nebraska

3

6

East Carolina

4

6

Duke

4

6

Rutgers

4

6

New Mexico St

4

6

Idaho

4

11

UNLV

5

11

Clemson

5

13

Wyoming

6

13

Temple

6

13

Troy

6

13

Virginia

6

Oregon St had the fewest starts lost to injury with only 2 all year (tied with Kansas) and had the Beavers won their final game against rival Oregon (lost 37-33) they would have made their first trip to the Rose Bowl since 1965!

Idaho was a team that came out of nowhere last year. After going just 3-21 the previous two years the Vandals went 8-5 last year and had their best season in a decade. One of the key factors to the success of their season was that they only lost four starts to injury.

Idaho was not the only team to have a banner season. Temple suffered only six starts to injury and won a school record nine games in a row last year! Wyoming was supposed to have a rebuilding year under 1st year HC Dave Christensen but ended up going 7-6 and one of the main reasons for their success was that they had only six starts lost to injury.

However the above teams will probably not be as fortunate this year and if the past trends hold up only five or six of them will improve their record this year.

Here is the complete list broken down by total starts lost and also by starts lost on offense and defense which can be indicators of one unit underachieving or overachieving last year.

2009 Starts Lost To Injury

Overall
Total
Starts
Starts
Off
Starts
Def
Sts
Sts Lost
Starts
Lost
Lost %
Starts
Lost
Starts
Lost
Rank
2009
Lost
%
Rank
Lost
%
Lost
%
1
 Washington St
67
25.38%
120
40
30.30%
27
20.45%
2
 Tennessee
44
15.38%
117
27
18.88%
17
11.89%
3
 Vanderbilt
42
15.91%
119
22
16.67%
20
15.15%
3
 Oklahoma
42
14.69%
116
36
25.17%
6
4.20%
5
 Syracuse
41
15.53%
118
23
17.42%
18
13.64%
6
 Oklahoma St
40
13.99%
113
21
14.69%
19
13.29%
7
 Colorado St
38
14.39%
115
11
8.33%
27
20.45%
8
 Arkansas St
37
14.02%
114
23
17.42%
14
10.61%
9
 San Jose St
35
13.26%
112
11
8.33%
24
18.18%
10
 E Michigan
34
12.88%
111
15
11.36%
19
14.39%
10
 Kentucky
34
11.89%
109
14
9.79%
20
13.99%
12
 Hawaii
33
11.54%
107
26
18.18%
7
4.90%
13
 Boston College
32
12.12%
110
10
7.58%
22
16.67%
14
 Buffalo
31
11.74%
108
23
17.42%
8
6.06%
15
 Minnesota
29
10.14%
103
20
13.99%
9
6.29%
15
 Alabama
29
9.42%
99
3
1.95%
26
16.88%
15
 Navy
29
9.42%
99
13
8.44%
16
10.39%
18
 Miami, Oh
28
10.61%
104
15
11.36%
13
9.85%
18
 FIU
28
10.61%
104
2
1.52%
26
19.70%
20
 Ohio
27
8.77%
97
4
2.60%
23
14.94%
21
 Florida St
26
9.85%
101
17
12.88%
9
6.82%
21
 South Florida
26
9.85%
101
18
13.64%
8
6.06%
23
 Arkansas
25
8.74%
95
8
5.59%
17
11.89%
23
 Stanford
25
8.74%
95
7
4.90%
18
12.59%
25
 Washington
24
9.09%
98
7
5.30%
17
12.88%
25
 Houston
24
7.79%
86
10
6.49%
14
9.09%
27
 Ball St
23
8.71%
92
22
16.67%
1
0.76%
27
 Akron
23
8.71%
92
16
12.12%
7
5.30%
27
 W Kentucky
23
8.71%
92
21
15.91%
2
1.52%
30
 Arizona St
22
8.33%
91
9
6.82%
13
9.85%
30
 Arizona
22
7.69%
83
16
11.19%
6
4.20%
30
 South Carolina
22
7.69%
83
9
6.29%
13
9.09%
30
 Oregon
22
7.69%
83
8
5.59%
14
9.79%
34
 NC State
21
7.95%
87
9
6.82%
12
9.09%
34
 UAB
21
7.95%
87
15
11.36%
6
4.55%
34
 Tulsa
21
7.95%
87
10
7.58%
11
8.33%
34
 Louisiana
21
7.95%
87
12
9.09%
9
6.82%
34
 Georgia Tech
21
7.34%
79
9
6.29%
12
8.39%
34
 Air Force
21
7.34%
79
7
4.90%
14
9.79%
40
 Louisville
20
7.58%
81
14
10.61%
6
4.55%
40
 Maryland
20
7.58%
81
10
7.58%
20
7.58%
40
 Ohio St
20
6.99%
71
13
9.09%
7
4.90%
43
 Illinois
19
7.20%
72
3
2.27%
16
12.12%
43
 Michigan
19
7.20%
72
16
12.12%
3
2.27%
43
 Connecticut
19
7.20%
72
6
4.55%
13
9.85%
43
 Virginia Tech
19
7.20%
72
14
10.61%
5
3.79%
43
 North Carolina
19
7.20%
72
19
14.39%
0
0.00%
43
 Florida Atlantic
19
7.20%
72
11
8.33%
8
6.06%
43
 San Diego St
19
7.20%
72
17
12.88%
2
1.52%
43
 Auburn
19
6.64%
67
2
1.40%
17
11.89%
51
 SMU
18
6.82%
68
10
7.58%
8
6.06%
51
 Kent St
18
6.82%
68
17
12.88%
1
0.76%
51
 Baylor
18
6.82%
68
11
8.33%
7
5.30%
51
 USC
18
6.29%
60
12
8.39%
6
4.20%
51
 BYU
18
6.29%
60
7
4.90%
11
7.69%
56
 Colorado
17
6.44%
62
14
10.61%
3
2.27%
56
 Southern Miss
17
6.44%
62
10
7.58%
7
5.30%
56
 UTEP
17
6.44%
62
5
3.79%
12
9.09%
56
 Memphis
17
6.44%
62
9
6.82%
8
6.06%
56
 Utah St
17
6.44%
62
12
9.09%
5
3.79%
56
 Iowa
17
5.94%
55
16
11.19%
1
0.70%
56
 California
17
5.94%
55
11
7.69%
6
4.20%
56
 Middle Tenn
17
5.94%
55
17
11.89%
0
0.00%
64
 W Michigan
16
6.06%
58
10
7.58%
6
4.55%
64
 North Texas
16
6.06%
58
7
5.30%
9
6.82%
64
 N Illinois
16
5.59%
52
8
5.59%
8
5.59%
64
 Marshall
16
5.59%
52
12
8.39%
4
2.80%
68
 New Mexico
15
5.68%
54
3
2.27%
12
9.09%
68
 Northwestern
15
5.24%
47
3
2.10%
12
8.39%
70
 Rice
14
5.30%
48
6
4.55%
8
6.06%
70
 Tulane
14
5.30%
48
2
1.52%
12
9.09%
70
 Wake Forest
14
5.30%
48
8
6.06%
6
4.55%
70
 Louisiana Tech
14
5.30%
48
10
7.58%
4
3.03%
70
 Iowa St
14
4.90%
42
4
2.80%
10
6.99%
70
 UCLA
14
4.90%
42
9
6.29%
5
3.50%
70
 Georgia
14
4.90%
42
6
4.20%
8
5.59%
70
 Utah
14
4.90%
42
5
3.50%
9
6.29%
78
 Notre Dame
13
4.92%
46
13
9.85%
0
0.00%
78
 Nevada
13
4.55%
39
11
7.69%
2
1.40%
78
 LSU
13
4.55%
39
10
6.99%
3
2.10%
81
 UCF
12
4.55%
39
7
5.30%
5
3.79%
81
 Wisconsin
12
4.20%
36
8
5.59%
4
2.80%
81
 Fresno St
12
4.20%
36
6
4.20%
6
4.20%
81
 TCU
12
4.20%
36
2
1.40%
10
6.99%
85
 Miami, Fl
11
4.17%
35
3
2.27%
8
6.06%
85
 Penn St
11
3.85%
33
5
3.50%
6
4.20%
85
 Bowling Green
11
3.85%
33
5
3.50%
6
4.20%
85
 Florida
11
3.57%
30
0
0.00%
11
7.14%
89
 West Virginia
10
3.79%
31
0
0.00%
10
7.58%
89
 Kansas St
10
3.79%
31
8
6.06%
2
1.52%
89
 Michigan St
10
3.50%
28
7
4.90%
3
2.10%
89
 Mississippi
10
3.50%
28
8
5.59%
2
1.40%
89
 C Michigan
10
3.25%
24
8
5.19%
2
1.30%
94
 Indiana
9
3.41%
25
5
3.79%
4
3.03%
94
 Toledo
9
3.41%
25
5
3.79%
4
3.03%
94
 Cincinnati
9
3.41%
25
5
3.79%
4
3.03%
94
 Missouri
9
3.15%
23
2
1.40%
7
4.90%
98
 Texas A&M
8
2.80%
21
6
4.20%
2
1.40%
98
 Texas Tech
8
2.80%
21
3
2.10%
5
3.50%
98
 Texas
8
2.60%
17
6
3.90%
2
1.30%
98
 Boise St
8
2.60%
17
6
3.90%
2
1.30%
102
 UL Monroe
7
2.65%
19
5
3.79%
2
1.52%
102
 Mississippi St
7
2.65%
19
1
0.76%
6
4.55%
102
 Pittsburgh
7
2.45%
16
0
0.00%
7
4.90%
105
 Virginia
6
2.27%
15
3
2.27%
3
2.27%
105
 Temple
6
2.10%
12
2
1.40%
4
2.80%
105
 Troy
6
2.10%
12
3
2.10%
3
2.10%
105
 Wyoming
6
2.10%
12
2
1.40%
4
2.80%
109
 UNLV
5
1.89%
11
3
2.27%
2
1.52%
109
 Clemson
5
1.75%
10
3
2.10%
2
1.40%
111
 East Carolina
4
1.52%
8
1
0.65%
3
1.95%
111
 Duke
4
1.52%
8
0
0.00%
4
3.03%
111
 Rutgers
4
1.52%
8
2
1.52%
2
1.52%
111
 New Mexico St
4
1.40%
6
3
2.10%
1
0.70%
111
 Idaho
4
1.40%
6
3
2.10%
1
0.70%
116
 Purdue
3
1.14%
4
1
0.76%
2
1.52%
116
 Army
3
1.14%
4
0
0.00%
3
2.27%
116
 Nebraska
3
0.97%
3
3
1.95%
0
0.00%
119
 Kansas
2
0.76%
2
2
1.52%
0
0.00%
119
 Oregon St
2
0.70%
1
0
0.00%
2
1.40%

PhilSteele.com will have a page updated weekly dedicated to starts lost again this year. We will track each team's starts lost for the 2010 season so you can see which teams are really banged up and those that have remained very healthy. We even include start charts for each of the teams and also update them weekly!

I will be back tomorrow with a look at the Top Game Performances of 2009!!

Only 76 Days until the First College Football Game!!!