Daily Blog • Saturday October 9th

 

NFL Selections 30-22 (58%) So Far This Season

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS FOR SUNDAY OCTOBER 9th
DENVER AT BALTIMORE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DENVER 43
175
14
1.5
#24
BALTIMORE 133
235
24
1.4
#26

LY the Ravens crushed the Broncos 30-7. Both teams are off good wins with Denver beating Tennessee with a 4Q comeback and the Ravens snapped a 4 game road losing streak to Pittsburgh. Both teams are having issues with balance offensively but the Ravens have the players on hand to correct while the Broncos are injury depleted at RB. My computer projects just 43 yds rushing for the Broncos which means they will again have to depend on the arm of QB Orton to carry them and it will not be enough as the Ravens move to 4-1.

PHIL’S FORECAST: BALTIMORE 21 DENVER 6

 

 

KANSAS CITY AT INDIANAPOLIS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
KANSAS CITY 150
170
20
1.8
#2
INDIANAPOLIS 96
373
27
1.0
#28

Even the most optimistic Kansas City fans couldn't have predicted that after four weeks into the NFL season the Chiefs would be the last remaining unbeaten in the NFL but they are at 3-0 and off a bye week. However none of their wins are over a team with a winning record (3-9 combined so far) and they now welcome in a Colts team that was beaten by a 59 yd FG as time expired last week. The "Patriots West" coaching staff is very familiar with how Indy works and the buy week should help them in the film room. While the Colts should get back on track here with a win, I would not be surprised if the Chiefs made a key play or two on ST's as they keep it close.

PHIL’S FORECAST: INDianapolis 20 KANSAS CITY 13

 

ATLANTA AT CLEVELAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ATLANTA 140
238
23
1.5
#18
CLEVELAND 109
228
17
2.7
#9

This is a tough spot for the Falcons as they are coming off a big win vs New Orleans two weeks ago and last week had a 4Q come-from-behind victory against a desperate SF team and have a road game against PHI on deck. The Browns have shown steady improvement TY despite the 1-3 record and have had a lead going into the 4Q of every game to date. QB Delhomme after missing the last three weeks will get the start here and naturally has experience going up against the Falcons as the QB for the Panthers for so many years. The Browns have proven to be scrappy this year and I'll call for them to get their 2nd str home upset.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CLEVELAND 17 ATLANTA 14

 

 

CHICAGO AT CAROLINA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CHICAGO 131
205
20
2.6
#22
CAROLINA 130
195
10
3.2
#8

Bears QB Cutler was clobbered in LW's loss with 9 sacks and is out for this game and veteran Todd Collins gets the start here. The Panthers are also beat up as WR Smith (ankle sprain) will miss and QB Clausen has no proven targets now. While the 16-14 final score suggests Carolina played tough last week vs New Orleans the stats say otherwise. New Orleans logged 27-10 FD and 383-251 yd edges but self-destructed on 5 drives inside the Carolina 14 with 1 TD, a FG and a fumble. Despite having their QB out the Bears will shut down the Panthers offense and Collins will make just enough plays to get the win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CHICAGO 21 CAROLINA 14

 

 

NY GIANTS AT HOUSTON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NY GIANTS 96
288
26
2.2
#29
HOUSTON 135
189
31
1.7
#17

The Giants DL reverted back to their 2007 form last week with 9 sacks against the Bears and held them to just 6 FD's, 0 3rd Dn conversions and just 82 yds until their final drive. The Texans rested WR Johnson LW and RB Foster didn't get the start due to missing meetings. HOU's defense did capitalize on a below avg OAK OL with 4 sacks and forced 3 TO's in the win. The last time the Texans were at home they had a disappointing performance against the Cowboys and I think they will make sure they don't repeat that effort here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: HOUSTON 31 NY GIANTS 24

 

SAN DIEGO AT OAKLAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SAN DIEGO 132
180
30
1.9
#32
OAKLAND 110
210
18
2.6
#21

Statisically San Diego is the most dominant team in the NFL with #1 rankings on both offense and defense but their #32 ST''s has cost them in 2 games already. LW they dismantled the Cardinals with a 419-124 yd edge holding them to 8 drives under 25 yds. Oakland is #10 and #11 statistically but 29th in sacks allowed and -3 TO's. In terms of overall yards they fared well vs Houston at home LW but they gave up 3 TO's and their run defense remains a major liability despite their offseason investments. RB McFadden is likely to miss & and that will make them too one-dimensional as the Charges win by two scores.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 27 OAKLAND 13
 

 

 

 

JACKSONVILLE AT BUFFALO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
JACKSONVILLE 151
165
17
1.9
#10
BUFFALO 125
193
22
2.7
#12

This is a meeting of statisical bottom feeders with the Jags having my #25 and #30 units vs the Bills #32 and #28 units. The Bills are 0-4 for the first time since 2004 and were held to under 225 yds for the 3rd time TY last week vs the Jets. The Jags stole a win from the Colts with a 59 yd FG as time expired and QB Garrard rebounded from a couple of miserable performances with 163 yds (77%) and 2 TD's. They were able to get the ground game going as RB Jones-Drew had 105 yds (4.0). My computer calls for this to be a close game with just a 318-316 yd edge for the Bills and I think they get their first win of the season here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: BUFFALO 17 JACKSONVILLE 16

 

ST LOUIS AT DETROIT
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ST LOUIS 85
205
17
1.1
#19
DETROIT 131
293
21
2.9
#7

A quarter thru the season and it's pretty surprising to see the Rams atop the NFC West as they needed a fake FG to avoid the 2nd winless season in the modern NFL era LY vs Detroit. QB Bradford continues to impress with 289 yds (56%) and a 2-1 ratio LW as STL dominated the 2H with a 10-4 FD and 272-83 yd edges as the Seahawks punted on 6 str drives. The Lions are the more dangerous team playing at home at 0-4. However, the Rams right now have the better QB and I'll disagree with my computer and call for them to get their 3rd str win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ST LOUIS 28 DETROIT 27

 

TAMPA BAY AT CINCINNATI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TAMPA BAY 53
170
14
2.8
#11
CINCINNATI 138
258
25
1.6
#31

It has taken the Bengals big name players on offense to get their timing down but finally CIN QB Palmer showed some intensity LW after WR Shipley was laid out in the EZ. The Bucs are expected to start 2 rookie WR's here and RB Williams is avg just 46 ypg (2.5) and has been ineffective so far. The Bengals clearly have the edges on both sides with my #11 offense and #6 defense while the Bucks are #26 and #20. TB does have the ST edge with my #11 unit but my computer calls for a definitive 396-223 yd advantage for the Bengals as they rebound with a win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CINCINNATI 24 TAMPA BAY 17

 

GREEN BAY AT WASHINGTON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
GREEN BAY 89
253
24
2.1
#30
WASHINGTON 103
250
23
1.3
#6

The Packers are off a disappointing win at home vs the Lions where they were outgained 431-261 as the defense allowed DET to convert 10 of 17 3rd downs. The Redskins are off an emotional win on the road vs McNabb where they were outgained 281-104 after their first 3 drives. While the Skins have a limited receiving corps the Packers lack a run game after losing RB Grant and are also banged up a bit on the OL. They still have QB Rodgers who showed some frustration in the post-game press conference last week. I expect the Skins to have an emotional letdown after last week as the Packers get the big win on the road.

PHIL’S FORECAST: GREEN BAY 27 WASH 17

 

NEW ORLEANS AT ARIZONA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NEW ORLEANS 112
233
31
1.5
#3
ARIZONA 115
193
17
2.8
#15

The Saints offense is starting to opem up with a 132 yd edge LW vs Carolina but inefficient red zone production has prevented them from putting more points on the board as they drove inside the Panthers 15 yd line five times but came away with just 16 pts. The Cardinals are a shell of themselves and the Falcons and Chargers proved that once you get a 2 score lead on them and put the ball in the hands of QB Anderson they'll implode. The Cards WR unit is very depleted and the OL has given up 1 sack every 8.5 pass attempts (30th). LY the Saints saw the Cardinals at their best in the playoffs and destroyed them and this time will be no different.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 42 ARIZONA 17

 

TENNESSEE AT DALLAS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TENNESSEE 100
168
15
1.9
#23
DALLAS 105
295
22
1.8
#14

The Cowboys have won 5 str coming off a bye and Jerry Jones told them to come back with an 0-3 attitude despite the HOU win. DAL has the #5 and #7 units and despite the OL issues they have given up just 1 sack TY. Their 3.5 ypc avg is due to OC Garrett's imbalance play calling with an NFL low 69 rush attempts. The Titans are coping with teams focusing on containing Johnson as the offense is not built for aerial shootouts as they allowed 341 yds passing with #2 McCourty out. The Cowboys make it 6 str coming off a bye and move to 2-2.

PHIL’S FORECAST: DALLAS 30 TENNESSEE 20