Top 25 Forecasts

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Buckeye fans had to hold their breath when they saw QB Pryor miss parts of the game with a leg injury last week at Illinois. Pryor did return but HC Tressel played it conservative as they “only” won 24-13. The Hoosiers meanwhile lost a heartbreaker to Michigan last week as UM QB Robinson scored a TD with less than 30 seconds remaining in the 42-35 final. The bright spot for IU was the play of their QB Ben Chappell who threw for a school record 480 yds. WR Doss had 15 rec for 201 yds but the IU defense which is allowing 207 rush ypg (6.3) was not strong enough in the end. The Buckeyes should be extra focused here after their less than impressive performance last week but do have a big road trip to Wisconsin on deck. Nonetheless the Bucks offense should put up great numbers and their defense will be able to handle the one dimensional Hoosiers.

PHIL’S FORECAST : OHIO ST 48 INDIANA 13

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LAST 13 YEAR MATCHUPS

Boise St did everything they could last week to hold onto the #3 spot in the AP poll but their 59-0 win over New Mexico St was not enough as Oregon passed them thanks to their 52-31 win over #9 Stanford. The Broncos will still have to continue to win impressively each and every week and even then it may not be enough. This week they take on a Toledo team that has already upset Purdue earlier this year. These two teams while they have never met, do have one opponent in common this year in Wyoming. While Toledo lost at home to the Pokes last week 20-15, the Broncos beat them 51-6 in Laramie. This one will be played on the Blue Turf and QB Moore is avg 267 ypg (66%) with an 11-1 ratio. Nuff said.

PHIL’S FORECAST : BOISE ST 48 TOLEDO 6

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Both of these teams come in at 4-0 off bye weeks and the winner will have a big leg up in the Big 12 North. Even though the Wildcats finished just 6-6 a year ago had they beaten Nebraska in the season finale, they would have represented the North in the Big 12 title game. This year they are off to their best start since 2003 and it looks like HC Snyder is beginning to work his magic once again. RB Thomas is the workhorse with 628 (6.0) and 6 TD's and QB Coffman has been efficient avg 160 ypg (60.5%) with a 5-2 ratio but will face his toughest test to date here. The Huskers D is allowing just 13 ppg and 265 ypg. The offense has found some life with QB Martinez who leads the Huskers ground game with 499 yds (9.2) and 7 TD's but has just a 2-3 ratio in the pass game. The key matchup here is the Huskers run offense which is avg 308 rush ypg (7.0) while the Kansas St rush D is allowing 196 ypg (4.6). Not only does Nebraska have the edge there they also have sizeable edges on offense (#19-57), defense (#5-54) and ST's (#22-44). The Huskers move to 5-0 and set their sights on revenge against the Longhorns next week.

PHIL’S FORECAST: nebraska 27 kansas st 13

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While Arizona is coming off a bye and should be well rested they have struggled vs the Beavers in the past (just 2-9 in their L/11 meetings). Arizona is outgaining foes by 192 ypg while OSU is being outgained by 135 ypg this year. LW OSU QB Katz did throw for 260 yds (66%) with a 2-0 ratio in the 31-28 win over Arizona St.  The Wildcats have just Washington St on deck and despite their recent struggles with the Beavers, should win by at least two scores.

PHIL’S FORECAST : ARIZONA 34 OREGON ST 17

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This is the second straight year for this game in Arlington as Dallas Cowboy owner Jones is an Arkansas alum. LY Arkansas won 47-19 as QB Mallett hit 17-27 for 271 yds with a 4-1 ratio while Texas A&M QB Johnson went 30-56 for 345 yds and 2 TD. Arkansas used the bye to recover from their heartbreaking loss to #1 Alabama as they blew a 20-7 2H lead. A&M is also off a heartbreaking loss to Oklahoma St last Thursday as QB Johnson had 5 TO’s including a late int that led to the game-winning FG for a 38-35 final. While this year’s game will be much closer, the Razorbacks defense is improved and QB Johnson’s psyche will be put to the test.

PHIL’S FORECAST : ARKANSAS 34 TEXAS A&M 24

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While this game is not as big as it once was back in the late 80s and throughout the 90s, the rivalry has been very competitive with the last 9 games each being decided by 8 points or less. LY Miami went into Tallahassee and won 38-34 as Florida St’s last second pass was dropped in the end zone. This year both teams are improved and it’s the first time since 2006 that both are ranked coming into the game. This will be the Hurricane’s first home game since September 2nd as they went 2-1 on the road including impressive victories against Pittsburgh and Clemson with the only loss coming at the hands of #2 Ohio St. QB Harris is avg 224 ypg (57%) but just a 10-8 ratio. On the other side FSU QB Ponder is avg just 169 ypg (61%) but has a 8-1 ratio. Both teams are evenly matched but the Hurricanes have my #1 defense and the home crowd edge will be the difference.

PHIL’S FORECAST : MIAMI 31 FLORIDA ST 21

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This is the first time both of these teams come into the matchup undefeated since 1999. Michigan St has won the last two meetings and will try to make it three in a row for the first time since 1965-’67. The Spartans have been fueled the last couple of years by the “little brother” comments made by former UM RB Hart after the ’07 game and have outgained the Wolverines by 166 ypg the last two years. This year maybe a different story as UM is 2nd in the country in total offense avg 565 ypg. They are led by the nation’s #1 rusher in QB Robinson (905, 9.2!) who scored the game-winning TD w/:17 left over Indiana last week. MSU was impressive in their 34-24 win over #11 Wisconsin as they won their 2nd str game w/out HC Dantonio on the sidelines. Dantonio has said he will be at the game this week and that should give the Spartans some extra motivation. However, the Wolverines are playing at home and desperately need to regain the upper hand in the series.

PHIL’S FORECAST : MICHIGAN 38 MICH ST 31

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Nevada has won 7 of the L/8 in this series and in the 7 wins they avg’d 42 ppg and 505 ypg. LY Nevada tied an NCAA record with 4 players topping 100 rush yds as they administered the worst ever home loss for San Jose St 62-7. Last week San Jose St loss to FCS UC Davis as they blew a 13-0 HT lead while UN defeated rival UNLV for the 6th straight time 44-26. Nevada should continue to roll on to a possible undefeated matchup with Boise in November and as they roll this week.

PHIL’S FORECAST : NEVADA 51 SAN JOSE ST 6

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Missouri has outscored (149-27) and outgained (1489-571) Colorado the last three years. The last time here Colorado lost 58-0 and last year the Buffs were down 33-3 at HT. While the Tigers are off a bye, Colorado comes in off a home upset of Georgia as they forced a key TO late in the game with UGA driving for the game-winning TD. QB Hansen is avg 179 ypg (64%) with a 5-3 ratio and RB Stewart has had B2B 100 yd games. The Buffaloes have lost 9 str B12 away games by 16 ppg and it’s hard to ignore the Tigers recent dominance as MU goes to 5-0.

PHIL’S FORECAST : MISSOURI 30 COLORADO 20

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Air Force has strung together its longest streak vs Colorado St since the 1980s and they are off an exciting 14-6 win over Navy last week snapping their 7 game losing streak to them. The Falcons are ranked for the first time since 2002 and this week face a Colorado St team that gave TCU a good battle in the 1H (down 6-0) but eventually loss 27-0. Naturally the Falcon ground attack is rolling as they have 3 rushers with 300+ yds already and will be facing a Rams defense that has allowed both TCU and Nevada this year to top 300 yds. My computer calls for the Falcons to have 337 rush yds as they roll to 5-1.

PHIL’S FORECAST : AIR FORCE 34 COLOrado ST 10