Top 25 Forecasts

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Thanks to South Carolina’s upset, the Broncos move back up to #3 this week and for the third consecutive week take on a clearly “overmatched” opponent. San Jose St meanwhile is facing its 5th ranked team already and were competitive with Nevada last week before giving way in a 35-13 loss. Boise has the #4 scoring offense in the country (47 ppg) while San Jose St is dead last avg 10 ppg. The Broncos are a perfect 10-0 in this series and the avg MOV has been by 29 ppg. Boise owns the nation’s longest winning streak at 19 games and should name the score here.

PHIL’S FORECAST : BOISE ST 55 SAN JOSE ST 3

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There may be no game this past offseason that got more press than this Big 12 Title game rematch as Nebraska left the Big 12 because of Texas. The Huskers will be looking for revenge from last year’s 13-12 loss where the officials put :01 back on the clock that allowed the Horns to kick a 46 yd game-winning FG. UT did hold NU to just 106 total yds but this year may be a different story as the Huskers offense is much improved thanks to their talented young QB Taylor Martinez. “T-Magic” last week had 241 rush yds (a Neb QB record) and 4 TD’s and already has 737 rush yds (10.8!) and 12 TD’s on the season! Texas is off a bye and is a perfect 11-0 the L/11 yrs following the Oklahoma game. The last time the Horns lost 3 consecutive games was in HC Brown’s first season in 1999 and while I expect a great effort here, Nebraska is just too good at home.

PHIL’S FORECAST : NEBRASKA 27 TEXAS 13

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With Alabama’s loss last week, this one has even more significance with the winner having a solid shot at the SEC West title. Arkansas has pulled upsets in this series the last two years and LY jumped out to a 34-3 lead and held on for a 44-23 win. The last time here Arkansas had a 428-185 yd edge and knocked off the #20 Tigers. This year the teams are closely matched despite their contrasting styles as the #5 Tiger offense prefers to run behind QB Newton 672 rush (6.5) and the #10 Razorback offense prefers to throw with QB Mallett who is avg 350 ypg (69%) with a 13-6 ratio. While the Razorbacks have the defensive edge (#13-34) Auburn is at home playing with legitimate revenge from last year and get the win in what should be an entertaining game.

PHIL’S FORECAST : AUBURN 33 ARKANSAS 27

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Despite these two teams being in the same state, this is the first meeting. The “Mad Hatter” strikes again as last week LSU HC Miles called for a fake FG with less than a minute remaining that set up the game-winning TD 3 plays later in their 33-29 win over Florida in the Swamp. While LSU made of habit of winning games last year despite being outgained, this year they are outgaining foes 336-246 and in their last two games they have outgained their opponents by a combined 360 yds. This week they take on FCS McNeese St (2-3) who last week lost to Stephen F. Austin 32-27 in the final minute. The Cowboys do have some injury concerns at the skill positions with their RB out and their QB ?. The past two weeks LSU fans have had to sweat out exciting come-from-behind finishes and this week will breathe a little easier as they move to 7-0.

PHIL’S FORECAST: LSU 42 mcneese St 0

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While Boise St and TCU have grabbed many of the headlines for non-BCS teams, the Utes have been very impressive at 5-0 and have outscored their opponents by an avg of 49-16 and have outgained them by an avg of 438-267. Last week they fell behind Iowa St 14-10 on the road before exploding for 31 unanswered pts and cruised to a 68-27 win which was the most pts scored ever against ISU at home. Wyoming is off a 45-0 loss to TCU where there QB Carta-Samuels was a late scratch. This week he should get the start but Utah has outscored Wyoming 112-17 the last 3 years and Utah has scored 50+ pts the last three games and HC Whittingham will take no prisoners in this final MWC season.

PHIL’S FORECAST : UTAH 41 WYOMING 13

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The Spartans are coming off their 3rd straight win over Michigan (first time since ’65-’67) as they dominated the 2H with a 276-115 yd edge in the 34-17 win. The Illini are also off an impressive road win as they won for the first time in Happy Valley and dominated rolling up 23-7 FD and 282-62 rush yd edges. QB Scheelhaase has not been spectacular avg just 128 ypg (59%) with a 4-4 ratio but does have the Big 10’s #2 rusher in in RB Leshoure 597 (5.7) to lean on. The Spartans QB Cousons is #9 in the NCAA in pass eff and has two very good RB’s in Baker 683 (7.0) and Bell 549 (7.7), With both teams off “A” performances last week I’ll side with the home team that has the better QB and more weapons at his disposal.

PHIL’S FORECAST : MICHIGAN ST 28 ILLINOIS 20

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The Seminoles are coming off a big win as they beat rival Miami, Fl 45-17 on the road. The Noles gained 291 rush yds (7.1) thanks in large part to a 90 yd run late in the game and finished with just a 467-421 yd edge and were out FD’d 27-22 but did harass UM QB Harris (5 tfl, 8 pbu). BC is coming in with 3 str losses and have been outscored by a combined 94-30. Their problems start at QB where last week Shinskie was forced to start with Rettig injured and he completed just 7 of 24 for 89 yds with 2 int’s. Florida St has outscored their two FBS opponents at home this year by a combined 65-10 and I expect more of the same here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: FLORIDA ST  34 BOSTON COLL 10

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This has the makings of being the most exciting game of the entire weekend as two formidable offenses collide. While Nevada is #2 in total offense avg 545 ypg Hawaii is #6 avg 497 ypg. Last week Hawaii went on the road and dominated Fresno 49-27 and are led by the nation’s leading passer in QB Moniz who is avg 388 ypg. Nevada is off to their best start since becoming a IA team in 1992 and naturally are led by QB Kaepernick who is #6 in the NCAA in total offense. While UN’s pass defense is improved they have not faced an offense like this to date.  This is a dangerous spot for the #19 Wolfpack as they have not won in Honolulu since 1948 are playing their 3rd away game in 4 weeks. I’ll call for this to come down to the wire with QB Kaepernick making a key play late to keep his team undefeated barely.

PHIL’S FORECAST : NEVADA 42 HAWAII 41

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This is Missouri’s first true road game this season as they take on a reeling Texas A&M team off back-to-back losses. Texas A&M QB Johnson has been a disappointment this season as he has more interceptions (9) than he had all of last season but HC Sherman has stood by his QB. The Aggies do have my #3 pass eff defense and have a huge ST’s edge (#1-60). Last week Missouri beat Colorado 26-0 but it was misleading as the Buffaloes missed 2 FG’s and had 3 drives inside the MO22. QB Gabbert sat most of the 4Q due to a hip pointer but should get the start here. The Tigers have faced a very soft slate of QB’s this year and I’ll call for A&M Johnson to have one of his best performances as the Ags stop the slide.

PHIL’S FORECAST : TEXAS A&M 34 MISSOURI 24

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Last year Air Force scored 23 of its 26 pts off TO’s in the win over the Aztecs but did not score an offensive TD. Last week San Diego St came in sluggish off a bye and fell behind 14-0 after 1Q vs BYU. They pulled within 3 when it looked they recovered a fumble at their own 25 w/1:21 left 3Q but the call was overturned due to a ? review. BYU would score 5 plays later to make it 24-14. Air Force is off a 49-27 win which was a bit misleading as CSU scored the final 14 pts when the Falcons put their subs in. SDSt’s DC is ex-New Mexico HC Rocky Long who is a master at stopping the option and has held AF under its season rush avg 9x in 10 years and I’ll call for the Aztecs to get their first win over a ranked team since 1996.

PHIL’S FORECAST : SAN DIEGO ST 31 AIR FORCE 24

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USF has 3 upsets over ranked WVU teams in the last four years holding WV well below their season avg each time as USF's speed on defense has neutralized WV's big play ability. USF is travelling on a short week after a disappointing loss to Syracuse and QB Daniels is avg only 137 pass ypg (53%) with a 4-7 ratio. WV QB Smith is avg 228 ypg (66%) with a 12-2 ratio and has RB Devine who has 475 rush (5.3). Because of the recent history I'll say the Bulls keep it close before the Mountaineers score a TD late to get the home win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: west virginia 21 usf 17