Top 25 Forecasts

There will be no flying under the radar anymore for the Sooners as they are #1 in the initial BCS rankings thanks to a tough schedule. This week gets no easier as they take on an undefeated Missouri team that has a much improved defense this year allowing just 10.8 ppg (#2 in the NCAA) but has not faced the caliber of opponents that the Sooners have. In their last two meetings which occurred in the Big 12 championship OU has dominated outscoring the Tigers by a combined 100-38. The Sooners defense is improving each week and last week after the bye held the Cyclones scoreless as they racked up 41-10 FD and 667-192 yd edges in the 52-0 win. OU has one of the best trio’s in all of college football in QB Jones (14-3 ratio), RB Murray (Okla career TD leader) and WR Broyles (#1 in NCAA with 61 rec) and unlike Ohio St and Alabama the last two weeks handle an upset minded ranked home team here.

These two are surprisingly the last two undefeated teams in the SEC and have accomplished their records in opposite ways. While Auburn has my #3 offense led by current Heisman frontrunner QB Newton who leads the SEC in rushing with 860 (6.7) and is avg 183 pass ypg (66%) with a 13-5 ratio, he will be going up against my #7 defense in LSU which is allowing just 84 rush ypg (2.4). Last week Auburn scored the most points in an SEC game in their history with a 65-43 win over Arkansas while LSU struggled with FCS McNeese St. LY LSU QB Jefferson threw for a career high 242 yds and accounted for 3 TD’s in LSU’s 31-10 win over Auburn as LSU had a 376-193 yd edge. Before LY, the previous 5 games were decided by a total of 19 pts and and I’ll call for this game to be much closer than LY but in the end QB Newton and the “home” Tigers (home team has won 9 of the last 10 in series) move to 8-0.

This is a dangerous game for Michigan St as it will be the first time all season that they leave the state of Michigan. Northwestern is off a bye and would be undefeated if not for 2 missed 4Q FG’s against Purdue two weeks ago. Their QB Dan Persa in his first year as the full-time starter has accounted for 77% of the offense and is #4 in the NCAA in pass efficiency with a 78% comp % and a 10-2 ratio. Last week MSU trailed Illinois 6-3 at the half before winning 26-6 but their top RB’s Bell and Baker were held to a combined 37 yds (2.1). The Spartans are 7-0 for the first time since 1966 but I’ll call for the upset here as the Wildcats perform well after a loss under Fitzgerald and with the extra time to prepare knock off the Spartans.

For now this will be the last regular season matchup scheduled in this rivalry as the 2 will be in separate divisions starting next year. Wisconsin had the huge win last week over #1 Ohio St as RB Clay became the first RB to top 100 yds against a Buckeyes defense in 29 games and the Badgers beat a #1 team for the first time since 1981. Iowa meanwhile got a 38-28 win over Michigan despite being outgained by a 523-384 yd margin but took advantage of 4 UM TO’s. Last year Iowa trailed Wisconsin 10-3 at the half but held the Badgers to just 58 2H yds in the win. The Hawkeyes defense is #1 in the Big 10 in rush defense 84 ypg (2.9) and that will be just enough to slow down the Badgers duo of Clay and White who have combined for 1,356 rush yds already as the 2nd str game vs top competition proves to much for UW.

The Cardinal are coming in off a bye and have outscored Washington St by a combined 97-13 the past two seasons. Washington St on the other hand is the only Pac-10 team not to have an off week yet and while more competitive this year continue to be the conference’s whipping boy. Last week they lost 24-7 to Arizona but the Wildcats were without starting QB Foles for most of the 2H due to injury. The Cougars are “only” allowing 40 ppg the L/6 games but this week could be a different story as they face a rested Stanford club that still has a shot at a Pac-10 title and possible BCS berth.

The Wildcats will be without starting QB Foles here as he has been listed as out the next couple of weeks with a dislocated knee cap. Backup QB Scott is more mobile than Foles and hit 70% last week against Washington St. Despite leading 21-0 last week, the Huskies needed 2OT’s to beat Oregon St as Beaver HC Riley decided to go for 2 in the 2OT but failed. QB Locker did have a career-high 5 TD passes. LY the Huskies pulled out a miracle 36-33 win against the Wildcats as they got an “IR TD” but a picture showed the ball actually hitting the ground. The Huskies won despite being outFD’d 26-14 and outgained 461-256. UW is just 1-6 in their L/7 games played in the state of Arizona and has not put together 2 straight consistent games this year and I’ll call for the Wildcats to get the home win here despite playing with their backup QB.

The Orange started the season 4-1 but three of the wins came over winless Akron and FCS teams Maine and Colgate. Last week they were exposed by Pittsburgh as the Panthers rolled to a 45-14 victory in the Carrier Dome. West Virginia is off a Thursday night home win vs USF and has a couple of extra days to prepare. They are an impressive 17-1 in home games under Stewart including 12 in a row which is the 2nd longest streak in WV history and have won 8 str against Syracuse. The Mountaineers make it 13 str home wins and 9 straight over the Orange here.

Last week the Longhorns continued their dominance over Nebraska in Big 12 play (9-1) with an impressive 20-13 win as they led 17-3 at the half and held Nebraska to just 213 total yds and without an offensive TD. HC Mack Brown used the off week to change his offense back to more of a spread option look and QB Gilbert surprisingly outran NU QB Martinez (72-34). Iowa St is off two big losses as two weeks ago they gave up 68 pts to Utah and last week were shellacked by Oklahoma 52-0 as the Sooners rolled up 41-10 FD and 667-192 yd edges. Iowa St’s tough schedule (#6) is starting to take a toll on them and I think the Longhorns could be in store for a long winning streak in the second half of the season.

Miss St HC Mullen really has done an outstanding job here and last week got his signature win to date with a 10-7 win in the Swamp over former boss Meyer. UAB last week did roll up 500 yds of total offense against an overrated UTEP team and earlier this year should have beaten SEC Tennessee on the road but could not overcome 5 missed FG’s and lost in 2 OT’s. While this normally would be a flat spot for the Bulldogs, Mullen should have his unit focused here with a bowl bid within their grasp and they move to a surprising 6-2.