Top 25 Forecasts

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It’s been tough being ranked #1 lately as the top team in either the AP or BCS polls has went down on the road to a ranked team for three straight weeks. This week the Trojans get their turn for the upset as Oregon becomes the first #1 team to travel to the Coliseum since 1988 (Notre Dame). USC is off a bye and could be undefeated if not for two last second losses by a FG to Stanford and Washington. Two weeks ago vs California they had their most complete game of the season jumping out to a 42-0 HT lead and outgained the Bears 602-245 in the 34 pt win. OU is also off another impressive outing as they exploded for 582 yds and 60 pts in the win over UCLA last Thursday. Last year the Ducks put up 613 yds and rolled the Trojans 47-20 giving USC their first loss by over a TD since 2001. USC is playing with revenge, has extra time to prepare and has proven they belong as they nearly beat Top 15 Stanford on the road and demolished Cal in their last two outings as they make it four straight weeks for an upset of the #1 team.

PHIL’S FORECAST : USC 38 OREGON 37

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Last week TCU’s speedy defense again showed their strength against the option offense and after allowing their first offensive TD in the month of October stiffened the rest of the way by limiting Air Force to just 184 rush yds and 7 pts. UNLV meanwhile is off a bye after a a 43-10 drubbing to Colorado St two weeks ago. Their leading WR Payne 23 rec (16.9) should be expected to be full go here as the Rebels will need all the help they can get. Last year TCU shutout UNLV and offensively rushed for 390 yds (8.1) which was their most since they joined the MWC (’05). TCU does have a huge showdown against Utah on deck but should have no problems here as they move to 9-0 for the second straight season.

PHIL’S FORECAST : tcu 41 unlv 6

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Missouri is off to their first 7-0 start since 1960 and last week arguably had their biggest win in school history as they upset #1 Oklahoma by returning the opening KO 86 yds for a TD and also took advantage of 3 key Sooner TO’s. Nebraska is also off an impressive win as QB Martinez a week after being benched threw for a career high 323 pass yds and 5 TD’s in the 10 pt road win over Oklahoma St. Last year against Nebraska, Missouri was up 12-0 after 3Q’s but suffered a 4Q collapse as Nebraska scored 3 TD’s in just 11 plays. Gabbert was banged up in the game and this year despite not being 100% has avg 335 ypg (69%) with a 4-0 ratio the last two games. Nebraska had won 15 straight at home vs Missouri until the Tigers came into Lincoln two years ago and embarrassed them 52-17. This year will be a different story as Martinez’s new found passing game keeps the surprising Tiger defense guessing and the Huskers get a huge Big 12 North victory.

PHIL’S FORECAST : NEBRASKA 34 MISSOURI 20

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Last week the Buckeyes coming off a loss to Wisconsin were dominant as they avenged their only Big 10 loss of 2009 by racing out to a 42-0 HT lead over Purdue and the Boilers did not crack the 100 yd mark on offense until their final possession. Minnesota on the other hand is having one of their worst seasons in school history and interim HC Horton has now lost his L/17 as a HC after last weeks loss to Penn St. A lone bright spot for the Gophers is QB Weber who became just the fifth QB in Big Ten history to top 10,000 career yds. On defense the Gophers are last in the Big Ten in rush giving up 194 ypg (5.5) scoring D (32 ppg) and have just 3 sacks on the year (last in NCAA) that does not bode well going up against a high-powered Buckeye offense.

PHIL’S FORECAST : OHIO ST 44 MINNESOTA 13

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The big question here is what Washington will show up?  In the opener the Huskies were beaten by BYU 23-17 only to follow up with a 41-20 win over an improved Syracuse team. Then after an embarrassing 35 pt loss at home to Nebraska, the Huskies beat USC on the road with a last second FG. UW kept the trend going with a dismal 10 pt loss to Arizona St at home only to follow it up with a victory over Top 25 Oregon St. Last week with Arizona playing a backup QB, the Huskies were demolished 44-14 and outgained 457-289. This week they get Stanford who has won back-to-back games here and last week  “only” won by 10 over Washington St as the Cougars scored 21 pts in the 4Q to make the score closer than what it really was. I’ll call for the Huskies to keep their “Jekyll and Hyde” routine going with an upset here as they have faced the 2^nd toughest schedule in the country.

PHIL’S FORECAST : WASHINGTON 31 STANFORD 30

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This is a huge matchup for the ACC Atlantic division as FSU leads with a 4-0 record in conf play but a NC State win here would go a long way to the Wolfpack earning a berth in the ACC Champ game. These two teams last year played in a shootout as FSU QB Ponder who was not 100% led a 66/8pl TD drive with 1:36 left for the 45-42 win. Former FSU HC Bobby Bowden used to struggle in these Thursday Night away games but new HC Fisher seems to have the Seminoles pointed in the right direction with several impressive victories after the loss to Oklahoma and DC Stoops has the Seminole defense looking more like the units from '87-'00 as they lead the NCAA with 30 sacks this season. I'll call for the FSU D to get enough pressure on NC State QB Wilson and force him into a couple of TO's and the Noles move to 5-0 in conf play.

PHIL’S FORECAST : Florida st 31 nc state 24

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The big news here is the health status of Arkansas QB Mallett who a week after leaving the Auburn game with a concussion, left in the 2H of last weeks game against Ole Miss with an injury to his throwing shoulder. Mallett has said he is 100% and ready to go this week, which should give my #6 rated offense a boost. Vanderbilt is just #78 in my pass D rankings but they are catching the Razorbacks off a must-win against Ole Miss last week and they have ranked South Carolina on deck. It will be tight early but the Hogs pull away in the 2H.

PHIL’S FORECAST : ARKANSAS 38 VANDERBILT 17

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The Hurricanes have rebounded from their disappointing loss to Florida St with two key ACC wins. Last week they scored 30 straight pts vs North Carolina and beat former HC Davis for the first time. RB Berry has been their go-to guy the past several weeks and has 4 str 100 yd games and QB Harris has just 1 int in his last two games after throwing for 9 in his previous four. This week the Canes get a Virginia team that they have outgained by a combined 496 yds the last two years. The Cavs defense has struggled vs ACC competition this year as they have allowed 490 ypg in their three matchups and that does not bode well going up against my #30 rated offense and that’s not even mentioning the Hurricanes #1 defense which is allowing just 150 pass ypg.

PHIL’S FORECAST : MIAMI FL 34 VIRGINIA 13

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Who would have thought that Texas would be looking up to Baylor in the Big 12 Standings at this point in the season but that is the case here as the Longhorns lost another home game as a big favorite last week while Baylor clinched bowl eligibility for the first time since 1995 with a win over Kansas St. The Bears have dropped 12 straight to Texas by 39 ppg, which included a 45-21 win here back in 2008 (Griffin at QB). The Horns have 11 TO’s in their three losses but their defense has remained solid allowing just 261 ypg. Texas HC Brown was clearly upset after last week’s performance and will have the Horns focused here against a Baylor team that may still be celebrating.

PHIL’S FORECAST : TEXAS 38 BAYLOR 21