Daily Blog • October 30th, 2010


HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS 16-8 67% L/2 Weeks!!
DENVER AT SAN FRANCISCO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DEN 61
248
21
1.9
#22
SF 136
225
24
1.7
#23

London, England. While SF isdoing a Bowl approach to the game by getting there early and taking in the sights and scenes DEN is doing a shock approach as they will simply get off the plane & go stright to meetings and were told to sleep on the plane. Last week both teams had disappointing results in different fashions as SF had the game in hand up 7 with 4 min left but were picked apart when they went to a prevent defense. DEN meanwhile was crushed 59-14 by OAK and were outgained 508-240. While the Broncos have the better QB, I like SF's approach to the game better and they get the close win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: san francisco 21 denver 20

 

WASHINGTON AT DETROIT
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WAS 92
240
20
1.5
#4
DET 110
288
25
3.2
#3

Stafford is expected to restart his 2010 season after missing the L/5 games with a shoulder injury. While only 1-5 DET is not the easy out from previous years and are improving on both sides of the ball. LY Detroit ended their 19 game losing streak with a 19-14 win over WAS as they dominated the 1H with 16-6 FD and 274-94 yd edges as the Redskins only had the ball for 8:00. WAS LW benefitted from 6 TO's but only got 7 pts out of them in the win over CHI. While DET is off a bye and playing at home, WAS is the better team and will be mindful of LY's game and get a hard-fought victory.

PHIL’S FORECAST: WASHINGTON 20 DETROIT 17

 

CAROLINA AT ST LOUIS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CAR 126
155
12
2.3
#18
STL 172
143
18
1.1
#24

Last week the Panthers pulled in a season high 379 yds while earning their first win. Moore had a solid game with 308 yds with 308 yds (68%) with a 2-1 ratio and was helped out by CAR sticking to the run (34 att's 2.2). STL had a 17-3 lead on the road but were too conservative in the 2H as they were outFD 12-6 & outgained 198-86. The Rams are 3-1 at home TY & should have beaten ARZ in the opener. They have played much better competition in that stretch and get their 4th win on the season (just 3 the L/2 years combined).

PHIL’S FORECAST: ST LOUIS 30 CAROLINA 20

 

BUFFALO AT KANSAS CITY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BUF 121
160
20
2.3
#17
KC 228
183
32
1.6
#2

I was impressed with the Bills effort vs the Ravens as they more than doubled their season avg in yards LW (506 yds) & took them to OT. Fitzpatrick has functioned rather well in the Bills offense with 3 games of 92+ QBR’s in his 4 starts. However the defense is a train wreck as they can’t stop the run (#32 4.8), pressure the QB (#29 13 sacks), & are -13 in the TD/Int department. KC’s coaching staff flexed its muscle LW adjusting to JAX in the 2H with a 237-95 yd margin & 28-7 score. My computer calls for KC to own a 411-281 yd edge as BUF comes back to earth a bit here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: KANSAS CITY 31 BUFFALO 20

 

TAMPA BAY AT ARIZONA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TB 103
188
19
2.5
#19
ARI 144
153
20
2.7
#13

Last week TB rallied from 17-3 to beat the Rams on a great 16 play/81 yd drive to go ahead with 10 sec left in the game. Now they have to go cross country with a weak run game (#22 4.0), a weak run defense (#31 5.3) & an even weaker pass rush (#32 just 5 sacks). ARZ will likely go with QB Hall but had a mild concussion and was KO’d of LW’s game. After turning the ball over 5 times LW look for ARZ to put the ball in the hands of Wells/Hightower who combined for 113 yds (5.7) and get the home win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ARIZONA 24 TAMPA BAY 16

 

MINNESOTA AT NEW ENGLAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MIN 110
213
20
2.5
#10
NE 92
245
29
1.6
#1

The Patriots LW went cross country & upset an injury depleted SD team despite being outgained 363-179. NE took advantage of 4 SD TO’s & played sound fundamentals with a very young back 7. MIN is off a tough SNF loss where Favre threw 3 ints in 7 att’s with 1 being returned for a TD. He reinjured the ankle he hurt in LY’s NFC Championship & the media has played the will he play/won’t he play game all week. Despite their flaws both are high profile teams that are pretty even statistically the L4W. My computer calls for just 14 yds difference here and I'll go with the surging home team.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 27 MINNESOTa 24

 

 

JACKSONVILLE AT DALLAS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
JAX 95
112
16
2.2
#11
DAL 119
308
31
0.8
#27

The Cowboys playoff hopes may have went down the drain with the MNF loss to the Giants and the loss of QB Romo for several weeks. Kitna is a capable backup though and proved that by moving the football well in the 2H of the game LW. Dallas is much better than their record indicates as they have outgained every foe TY (+593 yds), won the TOP battle in each game and are #11 in rush defense (101 ypg, 4.2). The Jaguars have their own QB problems as they were down to #4 QB Todd Bouman LW who made his first start in 5 years and while he did a solid job in the 1H JAX was outgained by a 232-95 yd margin and were outscored 28-7 in the 2H. JAX has had 5 diff secondary combos & 8 diff players. Despite the injury to Romo the Cowboys are much more talented and keep their slim playoff hopes alive here with a win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: DALLAS 34 JAX 13

GREEN BAY AT NY JETS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
GB 90
230
18
2.6
#28
NYJ 163
238
29
1.4
#7

The Jets are rested after the bye and are one of the hottest teams in the league with 5 str wins. While impressive it must be noted that they have been outgained in 4 of their 6 games TY. GB is off the huge emotional win over MIN on SNF and do have another SNF game vs DAL on deck. The Jets have a huge ST's edge, are #1 in the NFL in TO margin (+10) while GB is -1 and have a more balanced offense and one of the best secondaries in the NFL. I'll call for the Jets by a couple of scores here as they win their 6th straight game for the first time since 1998.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NY JETS 20 GREEN BAY 10

MIAMI AT CINCINNATI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MIA 110
233
26
2.2
#31
CIN 98
300
27
1.7
#30

Despite being the 3rd best team in the AFC East the Dolphins are showing quite a bit of toughness TY winning all 3 road games & playing PIT to a standstill LW and could have gotten the win if not for a ? call. Palmer had his best game of the year LW (412 yds 72% 3 TD) but little mistakes at key points did them in. Miami makes less mistakes than CIN on a regular basis, have an identity on both sides of the ball and are much better at rushing the QB and get another road win here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: MIAMI 30 CINCINNATI 27

TENNESSEE AT SAN DIEGO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TEN 105
103
27
1.6
#15
SD 83
318
23
2.9
#32

TEN was in a good situation LW vs a PHI team on the road off a big win vs ATL minus 3 key starters (WR Jackson, LT Peters, DT Bunkley). Now they have to travel cross country vs a SD team that has monster stats (#1 offense & #1 defense), and LW outgained NE 363-179 despite missing its #1 & #2 WR’s. Rivers spread the ball to 10 different players LW & despite 4 TO’s had the team in position to send it to OT. While my computer predicts a victory for Tennesse, I completely disagree and will call for SD to get a must-needed win here by a couple of scores.

PHIL’S FORECAST:SAN DIEGO 31 TENNESSEE 17

SEATTLE AT OAKLAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SEA 122
138
18
1.9
#5
OAK 148
238
24
1.8
#14

SEA dominated LW’s game vs ARZ forcing 5 TO’s, holding the ball for 14:24 longer, held ARZ to just 2 of 12 on 3rd Dns. However they settled for 1 TD, 4 FG’s & were SOD on 6 drives inside ARZ’s 15. OAK is off a franchise best 59 pts vs DEN & had 461-157 yd edge when they let up on the gas after 3Q. While my computer gives OAK a 386-260 yd edge keep in mind OAK has been a Jekyll and Hyde franchise for the better part of a decade and SEA is a much more energetic team under Carroll and Oakland's home edge is negated by a dead last avg home attendance of 42,964 TY.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SEATTLE 23 OAKLAND 17