Top 25 Forecasts

These two last met in 2004 and Ohio St needed a last second 55 yard FG to pull out a 24-21 win.  Ohio St has won 31 straight home openers by an avg of 20 ppg and the last loss came against Penn St (’78). Marshall has lost 10 straight road openers by 23 ppg and the Herd are 1-13 (9 str losses) vs ranked FBS foes (only win vs Kansas St in ’03). Marshall has not fared much better vs the Big Ten as they are 0-5 with an avg score of 40-16. Ohio St should be excited for a rare Thursday night game but does have a huge game vs Miami, Fl on deck. Marshall also has a big game on deck vs in-state rival West Virginia, which is new HC Doc Holliday’s alma mater. The Buckeyes have my #3 rated defense and my computer projects them to hold Marshall to just 180 total yards. OSU QB Pryor who is my favorite to win the Heisman should get off to a great start here as the Buckeyes roll in the opener.

This is just the 2nd meeting between these 2 teams and Miami won the last meeting 16-7 in the 1973 Tangerine Bowl. Florida is 8-0 vs MAC teams since 1990 winning by an avg of 52-12 and Florida is 17-3 vs FBS non-conf foes under Meyer. Florida has won their last 12 openers by 39 ppg while the Redhawks are 7-13-1 in road openers (1-5 L/6 years). Miami is 0-5 vs ranked foes in the last 6 years with an average loss by 28 ppg. The Gators do have USF and Tennessee on deck but beat bowl bound Troy 56-6 last year in a similar spot. Miami went just 1-11 last year but are a much stronger team with 19 returning starters. They did have a respectable #58 pass D and the Gators will be more of a pass oriented team this year with John Brantley at the controls. It will be kind of weird not seeing Tebow on the Gator sidelines but  naturally, the Gators are a top team vs perhaps a bottom ten team. UF can name the score here and Meyer is known to put the hammer down and may want to give his young QB some confidence.

This game will be played in new Dallas Cowboys Stadium and is the first meeting. Oregon St has won 10 of their last 13 season openers but 6 wins were against FCS teams.  Three things have been very consistent under Mike Riley: #1 They usually finish higher in the Pac 10 than what I forecast. #2 Experienced QB's fare much better than 1st year QB's in his system. #3 Oregon St struggles on the road the first month of the season. TCU has my #11 offense and #10 defense while OSU checks in at #37 and #28. TCU HC Patterson is known as one of the best defensive minds in the country and look for him to get after the inexperienced QB Katz here. While the Beavers have 2 All-American candidates in the Rodgers brothers, the Frogs will have a large crowd edge and will be excited to make a statement in the opener.

This is the first meeting but Nebraska swept its 3 Sun Belt opp’s last year by an avg of 47-4. This year the Huskers are a legitimate Top 10 team and have my #5 rated defense while WKU only has my #119 D. The Hilltoppers are a stronger team this year with 18 returning starters but were outscored by an avg of 49-10 in their two games against vs BCS foes a year ago. The Cornhuskers have won 24 straight home openers and have not lost since 1985 (17-13 to Florida St). Nebraska is 44-7 since 1996 in the regular season vs non-conference foes with 6 of the losses coming against BCS teams. The Huskers only have Idaho on deck and will be looking to continue their momentum from the Holiday Bowl win especially on the offensive side of the ball.

First meeting between these schools. New Mexico has not won or even scored a TD in a season opener since 2005 and have been outscored by an avg of 26-5 the last three years.  New Mexico went 0-2 last year visiting BCS teams and lost by an avg of 28 ppg but did upset Arizona back in 2007. The Ducks are on a 30-2 run at home vs non-conference opponents and 15-1 in home openers with the loss coming vs Indiana in 2004. Autzen Stadium is one of the toughest venues in the country and last year 4 of their 7 home games were against ranked teams yet they won by an avg of 21 ppg with a 165 ypg edge. New Mexico on the other hand lost by an avg of 26 ppg in their road games. The Ducks do have a trip to Tennessee on deck but the Lobos have a 1st time starting QB in a hostile environment taking on my #16 rated defense.

From 2002-’08 Florida A&M avg just over 5 wins a season prior to HC Joe Taylor’s arrival. Taylor has done a tremendous job here as the Rattlers have finished with solid 9-3 and 8-3 seasons in his first two years. This year they return 13 starters but must replace the MEAC OFF POY in QB Curtis Pulley who also was the Rattlers’ leading rusher last year (881, 7.2).  The Hurricanes are my pick to win the ACC this year as they have my #6 rated defense and QB Jacory Harris has my #8  set of receivers to throw to. These two teams did meet last year as Miami cruised to a 48-16 win with a 470-262 yd edge and led 31-3 at HT. Including LY, UM has outgained FAMU by 298 ypg the last four meetings and Miami is 3-0 in openers under Shannon. In their L/6 matchups vs FCS opp, Miami has won by an avg of 58-13 but they do have having the huge showdown against Ohio St next week and will likely sit their starters late in the game.

The only meeting between these two teams was the ’04 Fiesta Bowl (Utah won 35-7) as they were the first non-BCS team to crash a BCS bowl. Utah is 16-5 in home openers including 3 straight wins vs BCS teams (Arizona, Texas A&M, and Indiana) while Pittsburgh is just 5-11 in road openers but has won the last 2 years. While Utah has just 4 starters back on D, 3 are up front and they should improve LY’s 3.7 ypc rush allowed as the take on Pitt’s solid rush attack led by Dion Lewis. Both teams have a pair of solid RB’s but Pitt has a first time starting QB and a young O-line making its first road start at night, in altitude, facing a sold out crowd.

Tennessee Tech plays in the Ohio Valley conference and LY had their 1st winning season since 2004 (6-5). This year they return 16 starters including their top RB and WR and defensively bring back 9 starters including 9 of their top 10 tacklers. Expectations are high at Arkansas this year as the Razorbacks return 17 starters (#1 SEC) including 10 on offense. QB Ryan Mallett returns for another year after throwing for 3,624 yds (55.8%, 30-7) and he has my #1 set of WR’s to throw to. Defensively they return 7 starters from a defense that did give up 401 ypg. The Golden Eagles are 0-4 the L/2 years vs FBS teams and have been outscored by an avg of 45-6 (outgained by avg of 500-147). Arkansas did struggle in Petrino’s debut here two years ago vs FCS Western Illinois (28-24) but LY beat Missouri St 48-10 (591-205 yd edge). My computer projects a 657-120 yd edge for the Razorbacks here as Mallett and Co put up huge numbers.

Just the second meeting between these two schools that are 190 miles apart. In their last meeting (’06), Penn St dominated with a 568-184 yd and 26-10 FD edges as the Lions cruised to a 37-3 win. This year will be the 4th straight year the Penguins open with a FBS opp (outscored by a 40-3 avg) and they will be entering their 1st season under new HC Eric Wolford. Youngstown does return 13 starters from last year’s 6-5 team but will be breaking in a new QB and RB. Expect to see plenty of new faces as Wolford has said that if it comes down to 2 players at a position, he will go with the younger one as they try to build for the future. Speaking of young players, Penn St will have a 1st-time starter under center as 2-time 1st Tm Big Ten QB Daryll Clark graduated. The Lions do welcome back RB Evan Royster who ran for 1,169 yds (5.7), their top 2 WR’s and a should have a stronger OL this year. Defensively, they return just 5 starters and lose their top 3 tacklers who all played LB and were drafted but have plenty of VHT’s waiting to get their chance. Penn St has avg 59 ppg the L/2 years vs FCS teams but with a new QB, I expect the Lions to not be as efficient early on

In these teams only prior meeting in 2006, Auburn won 27-0 (outgained Ark St 399-177). Auburn has won 4 straight season openers after going 1-3 while ASU is 1-17 in road openers since 1992 (only win was at Texas A&M in ’08). In last year’s opener Auburn had two back go over 100 yards (148 McCalebb, 117 Tate) as McCalebb became the 1st frosh 100 yd rusher in an opener since Bo Jackson in 1982. Auburn does have to play Mississippi St on next Thursday so there is a legitimate look ahead threat and Arkansas St only lost to Iowa by 3 on the road last year and almost upset #4 Texas on the road in the 2007 opener. The last two times, Arkansas St HC Steve Roberts had 11 returning starters, they finished bowl eligible and this one could be closer than what many are predicting but look for the Auburn offense to pull away in the end.

The Chanticleers have been playing football since just 2003 and are the only Big South Conference team in its history to make the FCS playoffs (conf now has automatic bid TY). HC Dave Bennett is the only coach they have had and he enters his 8th year at the helm (50-29). Coastal Carolina returns 16 starters from LY’s 6-5 team and will be contenders in the BSC this year. Offensively, they lose their leading rusher but bring back their top 2 QB’s and WR’s. On defense they return 9 starters including their top 3 tacklers from a D that gave up 25.5 ppg. West Virginia also returns 16 starters including All-American candidate RB Noel Devine who ran for 1,465 yds (6.1) LY. The Mountaineers will be starting a new QB TY in Geno Smith (PS#4) but he has a lot of talent and there should be no drop-off. 9 starters return from a defense that gave up 21.7 ppg and all three defensive units rank in my top units in front of the magazine including their DL (#14). WV is 10-1 in home openers and Coastal Carolina is 0-3 all-time vs FBS teams (outscored 133-13). While the Mountaineers struggled in their opener vs FCS Liberty LY (33-20), they should be more focused this time around and will get an easy win.