Daily Blog • September 15, 2010 |
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Every week we will post my Forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.
Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 17-3 85.0% picking the winners of each game. That record may sound great, but do keep in mind most games have involved teams that were big favorites so the majority of people will have a solid record on these games as well. On the bottom of the forecast, I have listed some Upset Specials which have gone 2-1 on the year and last week had a winner with Hawaii over Army. Combined this year's record is 40-5 88.9%!!
Top 25 Forecasts
#1 ALABAMA AT DUKE |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
ALABAMA |
261 |
275 |
42 |
1.1 |
– |
DUKE |
79 |
275 |
23 |
3.0 |
– |
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The last time these two teams met was in 2006 a 30-14 win for Alabama. Duke did lead 14-10 mid-3Q before the Tide scored 20 unanswered pts. Bama HC Saban and Duke HC Cutcliff are familiar with one another as they faced each other 5 times when Cutcliff was the Ole Miss HC. (Saban 4-1). This will be Alabama’s first true non-conf away game since 2003 and the Tide are not used to playing in front of small crowds as this will be the first time in 3 years (Vandy ’07) that they will play in front of less than 40,000. Heisman trophy winner Ingram has sat out the last two weeks but the Tide have the best back-up RB in the country in Richardson and he has 210 (6.6) and 3 TD’s already. Alabama is off a big win over Penn St 24-3 (409-283 yd edge) and do have Arkansas and Florida on deck. Meanwhile Duke is off a tough loss to Wake Forest where the Blue Devils set the school record for most pts in a loss (48). Their potent offense has avg 515 ypg so far and are led by QB Sean Renfree who has 708 (71%) and a 6-3 ratio. This week Duke will be very hard pressed to approach the 400 yd mark as my Computer projects Bama to have a 536-354 yd edge. While Alabama has held its first two foes to just 3 ppg, I think Duke is capable of putting some points on the board but in the end the Tide’s offense is too strong.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : ALABAMA 41 duke 20 |
#3 BOISE ST AT WYOMING |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
BOISE ST |
221 |
270 |
38 |
1.1 |
• |
WYOMING |
29 |
205 |
13 |
2.6 |
– |
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Even though the Broncos did not play last week, many feel that they suffered a blow as their marquee win over Virginia Tech on Labor Day night looks a little less significant with the Hokies losing to FCS James Madison. The Broncos not only have to win all of their games but win them big each and every week if they want to keep their top 3 ranking. This week they get a Wyoming team that has given them trouble in the past as the last time these two met here in ’06, Boise only won 17-10 and were outgained 251-246. It will be interesting to see how the Broncos adjust to the elevation as War Memorial Stadium sits 7,220 feet above sea level which is the highest in the country. QB Kellen Moore continued with his great decision-making in the opener with 215 yds and a 3-0 ratio (39-3 ratio LY). Meanwhile Wyoming QB Austyn Carta-Samuels is avg 240 ypg (75%) with a 3-1 ratio and the Pokes are coming off a loss to Texas which was played just five days after their teammate Ruben Narcisse was killed. Boise is coming off a bye but has a huge home game against Oregon St on deck and the crowd in Laramie will be fired up for this one. Look for the Pokes to hang around into the 3Q before the Broncos pull away late.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : BOISE ST 34 WYOMING 17 |
#5 OREGON VS PORTLAND ST |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
PORTLAND ST |
52 |
125 |
7 |
3.3 |
– |
OREGON |
373 |
300 |
60 |
2.1 |
•• |
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Oregon is coming off a 35 pt road win vs Tennessee last week but it was closer than the final indicated. The Ducks did benefit from a 1hr lightning delay when they were trailing 6-0 and even trailed 13-3 at one point before scoring 45 unanswered pts. QB Deron Thomas who I projected to win the starting job in the magazine is avg 210 pass ypg (55.6%) with a 4-1 ratio and the Ducks welcomed the return of RB LaMichael James last week 134 (8.4) and a spectacular TD run. This week they welcome Portland St who went 2-9 last year while playing in the Big Sky conference. The Ducks are 12-0-1 vs current Big Sky conference teams including 3-0 vs the Vikings as they last met in ’06 a 55-12 win for the Ducks. The Ducks did hang 72 earlier this year on New Mexico but I think they will be a little more forgiving on an in-state school.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : OREGON 56 PORTLAND ST 7 |
#7 OKLAHOMA VS AIR FORCE |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
AIR FORCE |
204 |
23 |
13 |
2.5 |
– |
OKLAHOMA |
207 |
308 |
41 |
2.5 |
•• |
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These two have met only once with OU winning 44-3 on the road in '01. Last week the Sooners were impressive with a 47-17 win over the Noles (10 of FSU pts in garbage time). QB Landry Jones put up 321 1H pass yds, the 2nd most in OU history and is avg 298 (62%) with a 6-2 ratio. Air Force pulled off its first win over BYU since 2003, 35-14 outgaining the Cougs 477-309 with 409 of their yds on the ground last week. QB Tim Jefferson has thrown for 247 yds (48%) with a 3-1 ratio while adding 97 rush (5.7, 3 TD). OU clearly has the athletes on defense to disrupt the wishbone and the Sooners will win impressively for the second week in a row.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: OKLAHOMA 48 AIR FORCE 20 |
#9 IOWA AT #24 ARIZONA |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
IOWA |
135 |
143 |
18 |
2.7 |
– |
ARIZONA |
126 |
203 |
20 |
3.0 |
• |
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Arizona's defense struggled all fall camp but has looked great in the first two against Toledo and The Citadel not allowing a single TD. This week they take on Iowa which HC Mike Stoops is an alum of and started his career under former Hawkeye HC Haden Fry and served on the same staff as Ferentz. Iowa did control much of the game in LY's match-up with a 338-253 yd edge in the 27-17 win. Zona QB Foles saw his first action in the Iowa game LY and went on to start the rest of the season. This year my computer projects a 329-278 yd edge for the Wildcats and the late kickoff 10:30 est, home crowd and a more experienced Foles will be the difference. |
PHIL’S FORECAST: arizona 24 iowa 20 |
#11 WISCONSIN VS ARIZONA ST |
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Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
ARIZONA ST |
55 |
215 |
24 |
2.8 |
• |
WISCONSIN |
215 |
225 |
32 |
2.2 |
– |
LAST 13 YEAR MATCHUPS |
Wisconsin struggled last week vs San Jose St and could have been looking ahead to this match-up vs an Arizona St team that his off B2B wins over FCS schools. UW RB Clay did top the 100 yd mark again but QB Tolzien struggled with a couple of int. They will be going up against an underrated ASU defense which ranks #23 in my rankings and I'll call for the Sun Devils to keep it closer than expected.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : WISCONSIN 33 Arizona St 23 |
#13 SOUTH CAROLINA VS FURMAN |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
FURMAN |
53 |
135 |
9 |
2.1 |
– |
S CAROLINA |
282 |
325 |
44 |
1.2 |
– |
LAST 13 YEAR MATCHUPS |
In my magazine, I called this South Carolina team to easily be Spurrier's best edition yet and they have lived up to that billing with 2 impressive victories already. True Frosh RB Marcus Lattimore (PS#1) has given the Gamecock offense some much needed balance and QB Garcia has avoided the costly mistakes that plagued him in past seasons. This week they get FCS Furman and while I expect SC to be a little flat coming off the big win vs Georgia, I'm sure Spurrier has mentioned the the Va Tech loss to James Madison LW as motivation and the Gamecocks will continue to roll along.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : S CAROLINA 38 FURMAN 14 |
#15 LSU VS MISS ST |
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Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
MISS ST |
115 |
175 |
17 |
2.6 |
– |
LSU |
145 |
200 |
23 |
2.3 |
– |
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LSU held off MSU with 3 attempts inside the 1 yd line with a minute left to pull out a 30-26 win in Starkville LY. This year the Tigers have struggled again offensively and QB Jefferson's leash is getting shorter. While Tiger Stadium at night is a very tough place to play, I like the versatility at QB for Miss St as they continue to grow in HC Mullen's 2nd year. The Bulldogs get the upset and LSU HC Miles seat will be even hotter next week. |
PHIL’S FORECAST: MISS ST 20 LSU 17 |
#18 USC AT MINNESOTA |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
USC |
186 |
285 |
35 |
2.3 |
– |
MINNESTOA |
139 |
230 |
21 |
2.2 |
• |
LAST 13 YEAR MATCHUPS |
USC HC Lane Kiffin cannot be too happy with his team despite the 2-0 start. In the first week, it was the Trojan defense that struggled giving up 588 yds against Hawaii and last week the offense managed just 327 yds against Virginia. This week they have to go on the road and face an embarrassed Minnesota team that lost to FCS South Dakota last week. Minn HC Brewster wanted this game scheduled for recruiting purposes but this year the Gophers are in rebuilding mode with so many new players on defense and going up against USC QB Barkley is not easy for any defense let alone one that started 11 new players last week and gave up 350+ pass yds to South Dakota. |
PHIL’S FORECAST: USC 37 Minnesota 20 |
#20 MICHIGAN VS UMASS |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
MASSACHUSETTS |
88 |
180 |
15 |
2.8 |
– |
MICHIGAN |
282 |
280 |
38 |
1.8 |
– |
LAST 13 YEAR MATCHUPS |
After 2 games, Michigan QB Denard Robinson may be the frontrunner for the Heisman with two a Michigan total yardage record in both games. He leads the NCAA in rushing with 455 yds (8.0) and 3 TD’s and has completed 69.4% of his passes for 430 yds and a 2-0 ratio. This week HC Rodriguez may want to limit Robinson’s carries as they face FCS Massachusetts. The Minutemen who rank #14 in our power poll are 2-0 including a big 27-23 win over William & Mary in the opener. The are led QB Kyle Havens who is avg 258 ypg (64.5%) with a 3-0 ratio and there will be opportunity for him to make some plays against a UM defense that allowed 381 pass yds last week vs a ND team that played without its starting QB for most of the 1H. Robinson will get his yds as my computer calls for 562 total yds for the Wolverines and they shouldn't make another mistake of overlooking a solid FCS foe like they did with Appalachian St in '07.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : MICHIGAN 38 UMASS 14 |
#22 PENN ST VS KENT ST |
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Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
KENT ST |
39 |
158 |
9 |
3.1 |
• |
PENN ST |
197 |
248 |
30 |
2.4 |
– |
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I actually thought Penn St played better last week vs Alabama than what the 24-3 final indicated as a 4-1 TO deficit was the key. 3 times Penn St drove deep into Alabama territory and each time they committed a TO. This week true frosh QB Bolden is back in a familiar spot at home as they take on a Kent St that was very competitive last week in a 26-13 loss to BC. Lions RB Royster has just 72 yds (3.6) this year and I expect him and the rest of the Lion offense to get back on track here.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : PENN ST 38 KENT ST 10 |
Upsets of the Week: 2-1 TY! |
COLORADO ST OVER MIAMI, OH |
NOTRE DAME OVER MICHIGAN ST |
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#2 OHIO ST VS OHIO |
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Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
OHIO |
9 |
83 |
2 |
3.8 |
– |
OHIO ST |
267 |
243 |
40 |
1.8 |
– |
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In my magazine, I listed OSU QB Terrelle Pryor as my favorite to win the Heisman and so far thru 2 games he has kept the momentum from his Rose Bowl performance going with 240 pass ypg (56%) 4-0 ratio and 130 rush yds. Last week against Miami, Fl Pryor completed just 42.9% of his passes, but his 12 completions went for 233 yds (19.4) and he also added 112 yds rushing (5.6) and a TD. Defensively, Ohio St has been rock solid as they have allowed just 1 offensive TD thru 2 games. If there has been one disappointment so far this season it has been the play of the Buckeye special teams which has given up 3 TD’s already including a PR and KR last week which was the first time in school history that they gave up a PR and KR TD’s in the same game. Ohio is off a bad loss to Toledo where they turned the ball over 4x and were held to just 11 FD and 183 yds. QB Boo Jackson has struggled with just a 1-4 ratio. Defensively, the Bobcats are allowing just 216 ypg including 55 pass ypg (#2 NCAA) but will clearly be tested this week. While the Buckeyes are off a big game against the Hurricanes, they do have just Eastern Michigan on deck and there is no doubt HC Tressel will remind his team of the last time these two teams met where the Bucks had to come back in the 4Q to win 26-14. Buckeye fans won’t have to sweat it out this time.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : OHIO ST 41 OHIO 3 |
#4 TCU VS BAYLOR |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
BAYLOR |
80 |
180 |
16 |
3.0 |
– |
TCU |
280 |
250 |
41 |
2.0 |
•• |
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These two old SWC rivals played every year from ’45-’95 and while this is the 106th meeting, they have played just 3 times since ’95. TCU HC Gary Patterson has gone out of his way to not roll it up the last 2 weeks and he better get over it because it may cost TCU a shot at the National Title. Versus Oregon St he didn’t want to tack on to a slim 9 pt lead at the end of the game and vs Tenn Tech, running the ball with a backup FB he apologized to TT for scoring a TD with 4:09 left. Baylor is trying to get to a bowl game for the first time S/’94 and they have a great shot with a healthy QB Griffin who is avg 270 ypg (55%) with a 4-1 ratio despite playing just the 1H last week. TCU QB Dalton is avg 179 ypg (67%) with a 2-2 ratio but surprisingly no rec has over 100 yds yet. The key match-up naturally is the Frog defense against Griffin and I expect the speedy Frogs to win it comfortably as they try to earn extra points in the minds of the voters.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : TCU 40 baylor 17 |
#6 TEXAS AT TEXAS TECH |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
TEXAS |
150 |
225 |
28 |
2.8 |
– |
TEXAS TECH |
70 |
320 |
28 |
3.2 |
– |
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Who can forget the last time these two met here 2 yrs ago when Tech WR Crabtree caught a TD pass w/:01 left as the Raiders spoiled the Horns' unbeaten season. “Survival” is the word Texas HC Brown used to describe the victory LY vs Tech as UT was outFD’d and outgained. UT is only #108 in expereince level and this is their 1st true road trip to a hostile environment and QB Gilbert’s (197, 62%, 1-0) 1st Big 12 road start. Thanks to 2 blk’d P and a 93 yd KR Tech overcame a short week and plowed New Mexico 52-17 despite having just a 462-433 yd edge. QB Potts (326, 64%, 7-0) has handled the transition to the new offense well. While Texas has a huge advantage on defense (#3-61) Tech clearly has all the intangibles with it being Tuberville's first Big 12 home game at night as the Raiders spoil another Horn run to the title.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : TEXAS TECH 25 TEXAS 24 |
#8 NEBRASKA AT WASHINGTON |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
NEBRASKA |
208 |
180 |
29 |
2.4 |
•• |
WASHINGTON |
177 |
255 |
24 |
2.3 |
– |
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Nebraska will be breaking in a QB making his 1st career road start in Taylor Martinez who has been a terror for the Husker run game (284 rush, 13.5 ypc, 5 TD) over the 1st 2 gms in wins vs WKU and Idaho. While the season started off on the wrong foot for the Huskies with a loss to BYU, they returned to their winning ways last week vs Syracuse as UW ended a 6 year home losing streak vs non-conf BCS programs w/a 3 TD victory. Under Sarkisian the Huskies have played great vs ranked teams especially at home as LY they upset #3 USC, #19 Cal (42-10) and outgained #11 LSU 478-321 but came up just short. While UW QB Locker can make plays with both his arms and feet, he hasn't faced this fierce of a defense (#8 ranking, 289 ypg, 13.5 ppg) in awhile as the Huskers escape out of the Pacific northwest with a narrow victory. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : NEBRASKA 27 WASHINGTON 24 |
#10 FLORIDA AT TENNESSEE |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
FLORIDA |
152 |
208 |
33 |
2.2 |
•• |
TENNESSEE |
154 |
168 |
18 |
3.1 |
– |
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HC Urban Meyer has won all 5 of his games against the rival Volunteers and the Gatos have allowed just 60 rush ypg the last four years. Last week the UF offense finally got it going in the 2H and finished with 423 yds and defensively, they lead the NCAA with 8 Int. The Gators continue their domination in the series in QB Brantley's first road start.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: FLORIDA 33 TENNESSEE 18 |
#12 ARKANSAS AT GEORGIA |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
ARKANSAS |
72 |
283 |
23 |
2.2 |
– |
GEORGIA |
199 |
243 |
33 |
2.5 |
•• |
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This game was a shootout last year with both QB's breaking several school records in UGA's 52-41 win. This year I expect a lower scoring matchup as Georgia is again playing without WR AJ Green and Arkansas QB Mallett has struggled on the road. I think the Dawgs will be hungry to avoid an 0-2 SEC start and get the much needed victory at home. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : GEORGIA 27 ARKANSAS 24 |
#14 UTAH AT NEW MEXICO |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
UTAH |
171 |
260 |
41 |
1.8 |
••• |
NEW MEXICO |
74 |
235 |
15 |
3.0 |
– |
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New Mexico is coming off two tough foes in Oregon and Texas Tech and doesn't get a break here as they face a Utah team that is 2-0 and has a chance to make some noise in the BCS. While Utes QB Wynn sat out last week and is still questionable this week, back-up QB Cain has plenty of experience and it should not matter here as the Lobos have been out-scored 62-9 in their first two games. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : UTAH 41 NEW MEXICO 13 |
#16 AUBURN VS CLEMSON |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
CLEMSON |
117 |
153 |
24 |
2.2 |
– |
AUBURN |
234 |
238 |
32 |
3.0 |
– |
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This is one of the more interesting non-conference match-ups this week as these two schools are just 250 miles apart. The ACC conference has been abysmal so far this year in big non-conference games and again has a chance to make a statement on the road against a quality SEC team. Auburn QB Newton has been impressive with 241 rush yds and is avg 161 pass ypg (61%) with a 5-1 ratio. Clemson does have the adavantage of coming off 2 weak teams and has a bye on deck while Auburn is in an SEC sandwich. However, the Tigers from the SEC are the better overall team as my computer calls for a dominating 472-270 yd edge. |
PHIL’S FORECAST: Auburn 31 CLEMSON 21 |
#19 STANFORD VS WAKE FOREST |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
WAKE FOREST |
147 |
128 |
22 |
2.9 |
– |
STANFORD |
219 |
313 |
42 |
1.7 |
•• |
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This game is about legitimate revenge as LY the game was played at 9 am PDT, and while Stanford dominated the game, there were some questionable calls that allowed Wake Forest to get back in to the game and eventually win it 24-17. This year the game start time will be 11:15 pm EDT and I'll go with the talented QB Luck to have a huge game against a defense that allowed 48 points to Duke last week. |
PHIL’S FORECAST : sTANFORD 40 WAKE FOREST 23 |
#21 WEST VIRGINIA VS MARYLAND |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
MARYLAND |
112 |
113 |
20 |
2.7 |
• |
WEST VIRGINIA |
219 |
233 |
27 |
2.2 |
– |
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WVA barely got by in-state rival Marshall last week as they had two 90+ yd drives in the 4Q to comeback from a 21-6 deficit. This week they face an improved Maryland team who thanks to several goalline stands against Navy are riding high at 2-0. Last week they rolled Morgan St 62-3 and they have 3 RB's with 100+ yds already on the season. West Virginia QB Smith came of age in the 2H last week and the Mountaineers have two many playmakers on offense for the Terps.
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PHIL’S FORECAST : W VIRGINIA 30 MARYLAND 20 |
#23 HOUSTON AT UCLA |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
HOUSTON |
143 |
305 |
37 |
2.6 |
– |
UCLA |
222 |
245 |
31 |
3.2 |
•• |
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PHIL’S FORECAST: HOUSTOn BY 3 |
#25 OREGON ST VS LOUISVILLE |
|
Rushing |
Passing |
Points |
TO’s |
ST |
LOUISVILLE |
117 |
148 |
14 |
2.3 |
– |
OREGON ST |
214 |
288 |
37 |
1.5 |
••• |
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Oregon St is fresh off a bye but has a big game at Boise next week. Louisville meanwhile is off HC Strong's first win as a HC a 10 pt win vs Eastern Kentucky with a 388-230 yd edge but this is a long trip for their first road game. OSU does have 15 returning starters and is the better team all the way around as my computer projects a 502-265 yd edge. The Beavers will want to make a strong statement going into next week.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: OREGON ST 37 LOUISVILLE 16 |
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