Daily Blog • September 18, 2010

NFL Selections 9-3 (75%) So Far This Season!

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS FOR SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 19TH
KANSAS CITY AT CLEVELAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
KANSAS CITY 165
185
22
3
#11
CLEVELAND 169
248
27
4
#1

KC is off their big win vs San Diego on MNF (first since Nov 2004). Cleveland had a 340-288 yd edge vs Tampa Bay but QB Delhomme's Int at the end of the 1H that set up a 3 yd TD was the difference. Both staffs are filled with coaches that worked under Belichick so they both should be familiar with each other's gameplans. While Delhomme is probably out for CLE, I will still go with the home team as Kansas City's young players are still unproven on the road.
PHIL’S FORECAST: cleVELAND 23 KANSAS CITY 16

 

 

BALTIMORE AT CINCINNATI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BALTIMORE 98
205
23
2
#16
CINCINNATI 88
258
24
2
#24

The Bengals were able to sweep both games last year vs the Ravens as Marvin Lewis used to be the Baltimore DC and they still use the same concepts when he was there. While the Ravens were able to grab an impressive win on the road last week vs NYJ, the Bengals came out flat and while they outgained NE 428-376, 267 of those yards came in the 2H after they were down 31-3. The schedule makers have done BAL no favors as they are 1 of only 4 teams to be playing back-to-back road games to open the season. This will be a tight physical game throughout but I like what I saw from the Ravens in the first week.
PHIL’S FORECAST: BALTIMORE 20 CINCINNATI 17

 

 

PHILADELPHIA AT DETROIT
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
PHILADELPHIA 46
258
22
2
#5
DETROIT 100
250
29
4
#31

The story here is both starting QB's (Kolb and Stafford) will be out for this one. LW Vick came in and led a valiant comeback effort as he had 103 yds rush (9.4) and 175 pass (67%, 1-0). The Packers naturally were at a disadvantage without having a game plan for Vick and this week he will be the focus of the game plan for the Lions. Veteran QB Shuan Hill (16 career starts) gets the nod for the Lions and combine his experience with the fact DET is much improved and playing at home, I'll call for the shocker here and go with the Lions!
PHIL’S FORECASTL: detroit 24 philadelphia 23

 

 

TAMPA BAY AT CAROLINA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TAMPA BAY 144
188
24
4
#2
CAROLINA 173
205
17
3
#32

Carolina HC Fox is 11-5 vs Tampa Bay including two wins LY. The Panthers did hang with NYG last week thru the 1H but QB Moore suffered a concussion. He will probably still get the start here and will be tested against a speedy TB defense. Tampa was able to to pull out a victory vs CLE LW despite being outgained 340-288 as a late 1H int was the turning point. LY in the 2nd game between these two Bucs QB Freeman had 4 int's inside the CAR 25 yd line and I think he and the Bucs will struggle this week on the road.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CAROLINA 13 TAMPA BAY 10

 

 

MIAMI AT MINNESOTA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MIAMI 95
218
22

3
#18
MINNESOTA 93
250
28
2
#14

MIN has the extra rest to recover from LW's loss where they were held to 2 FD's and 65 yds in the 2H. MIA failed to put the lowly Bills away in the 2H last week and now must go on the road for the 2nd week in a row against an angry Vikings team playing in front of a very loud crowd. Favre has had extra time to get on the same page with the WR's and the Vikes clearly have a better array of talent on both sides of the ball.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Minnesota 33 miami 17

 

 

SEATTLE AT DENVER
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SEATTLE 110
178
24
2
#26
DENVER 94
230
19
2
#27

These two former AFC West rivals have met just twice since the NFL went to it current div format in '02. LW DEN played well despite the loss to JAX with 21-18 FD and 263-299 yd edges. SEA was even more impressive with a upset win oer div rival SF. The Seahawks played with great emotion LW in HC Carroll's first game but it will be tough to take that emotion on the road this week.
PHIL’S FORECAST: DENVER 30 SEATTLE 24

 

 

JACKSONVILLE AT SAN DIEGO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
JACKSONVILLE 110
195
20
3
#13
SAN DIEGO 62
298
36
2
#6

San Diego is off the disappointing loss to KC on MNF as QB Rivers and the offense struggled in the red zone and clearly missed WR Jackson's playmaking ability. Jacksonville played a clean game last week vs DEN with 0 TO's and just 5 penalties and got the must-win. Now the Chargers are in "must-win" mode but they have traditionally started slow under HC Turner and I look for this game to be tight throughout.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 17 JACKSONVILLE 16

 
BUFFALO AT GREEN BAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BUFFALO 86
143
15
3
#10
GREEN BAY 130
181
23
2
#29

Green Bay got some bad news earlier this week with the loss of RB Grant for the season (ankle). Last Week GB only had 24 yds in the 1Q but gained 278 yds on their next 6 drives in their win over Philadelphia. The Bills only gained 254 yds last week in the loss to Miami and stand no chance here on the road even with the Packers' injury concerns. While the Packers have a big game on deck with the Bears on MNF they clearly are the superior team.
PHIL’S FORECAST: green bay 31 buffalo 10

 

PITTSBURGH AT TENNESSEE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
PITTSBURGH 74
218
17
2
#25
TENNESSEE 99
215
21
2
#30

With the injuries to LT Starks and NT Hampton, Pittsburgh is going to be without 5 starters from 2009's season ending roster that they were counting on in the offseason. The Titans throttled Oakland last week and RB Johnson had his 12th straight 100 yd game. While the Steelers defense will be a stiff challenge as they kept ATL in check LW, going on the road with a new QB facing another physical team will be a tough task.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TENNESSEE 24 PITTSBURGH 10

 

CHICAGO AT DALLAS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CHICAGO 68
230
18
3
#3
DALLAS 96
190
19
2
#4

The Cowboys are off the disappointing loss to the Redskins on SNF where the int at the end of the 1H and the blatant hold by RT Barron cost them the game. Both teams have good defenses but the Cowboys are already in must-win mode if they are going to meet their high expectations this season. Look for the Cowboys to try an establish the run and I think the DAL secondary matches up well with the CHI WR's.
PHIL’S FORECAST: DALLAS 24 CHICAGO 17

 

ARIZONA AT ATLANTA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ARIZONA 69
178
8
2
#22
ATLANTA 135
278
32
2
#8

The Falcons are coming off a tough loss to a veteran laden Steeler team that rallied for the OT victory. RB Turner was held to just 42 yds (2.2) and this week faces a similiar 3-4 style defense. ARI LW only outgained the Rams by 53 yds and fumbled the ball 7 times (losing 4). The Cardinals will be playing without RB Wells and I'll go with a more consistent Falcon team playing at home and coming off a game against a team that runs much of the same schemes that the Cards do.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ATLANTA 34 ARIZONA 20

 

ST LOUIS AT OAKLAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ST LOUIS 134
102
12
1
#9
OAKLAND 131
243
23
2
#12

The Raiders were outmatched LW being outgained 318-139 thru 3Q before TEN lost interest. STL didn't fare much better as rookie Bradford set an NFL record with 55 pass att's for a QB debut and did not have any balance offensively. Both teams were sloppy with 10 penalties and 4 fumbles each last week. While Oakland usually plays to the level of their competition, they have more talent on defense this year and now get a rookie QB making his first start on the road.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OAKLAND 21 ST LOUIS 14

 

HOUSTON AT WASHINGTON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
HOUSTON 114
240
28
2
#17
WASHINGTON 91
305
27
2
#21

The Redskins were clearly the better coached and more disciplined team last week vs the Cowboys and were able to get the big win while the Texans are also coming off a huge win as they were able to to beat IND (only 2nd win ever) and have been getting a lot of accolades all week. Both coaching staffs are familiar with one another as HOU HC Kubiak used to be Shanahan's OC and Kyle Shanahan was on the Texans coaching staff for the last four years. HOU has a big in-state rivalry game on deck vs DAL and now have to go on the road against my most improved team in the NFL.
PHIL’S FORECAST: WASHINGTON 20 HOUSTON 17

 

NEW ENGLAND AT NY JETS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NEW ENGLAND 68
189
24
2
#15
NY JETS 128
248
22
2
#20

The Jets are off the physical MNF loss to BAL and the media has already jumped on QB Sanchez who looked like he was playing tentative and afraid to make a key TO. LW NE roared out to a 31-3 start vs CIN before coasting late and know the Jets are a serious division rival. There is no doubt the Patriots have been stockpiling all the clippings of Hard Knocks and I look for them to make a statement here about who still runs the division
PHIL’S FORECAST: new england 20 NY Jets 14