Daily Blog • September 22, 2010

Every week we will post my Forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.

Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 19-4 82.6% picking the winners of each game and have gone 57-8 (87.7%) so far this season. That record may sound great, but do keep in mind most games have involved teams that were big favorites so the majority of people will have a solid record on these games as well. On the bottom of the forecast, I have listed some Upset Specials which have gone 2-3 on the year. Combined this year's record is 59-11 (84.3%)!!

Top 25 Forecasts

#1 ALABAMA AT #10 ARKANSAS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ALABAMA 217
218
30
1.7
–
ALABAMA
214
263
28
2.1
•
The key matchup here will be the young Alabama defense going up against Mallett and my #1 set of WR's. Last year the Crimson Tide got after Mallett as he was sacked 3 times and hit just 12-35 (34.3%) for 161 yds in the 35-7 Bama win. This year Mallett leads the SEC avg 360 ypg (70%) with a 9-2 ratio and led the Razorbacks to a last second win over Georgia last week. Alabama's pass defense is allowing just 134 ypg (44.1%, 1-5 ratio) and ranks #5 in my PDR. Last week the Tide welcomed back Heisman winner Ingram who ran for 152 yds on just 9 carries (16.9, 2 TD) as Alabama rolled to a 62-13 win over Duke. Alabama's offense had incredible balance with 315 rush and 312 pass and this week my computer projects them with 217 rush and 218 pass. This game will be tight until the end but I will have to side with the defending champs who have the defensive edge (#2-21).
PHIL’S FORECAST : ALABAMA 31 arkansas 30

 

#3 BOISE ST VS #24 OREGON ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OREGON ST 67
150
21
2.5
–
BOISE ST
193
345
42
1.6
•
ESPN's College GameDay will be on hand and this is probably the Bronco's biggest remaining challenge along with a late season trip to Nevada to go undefeated. The Broncos did win the previous meeting here in '06 42-14. QB Moore is avg 293 ypg (63%) with a 5-1 ratio. Last week Boise dominated Wyoming 50-6 with 648-135 yd edge as they need to impress the voters each and every week to stay in the title picture. The Bronocos are 4-11 all-time vs the Pac-10 but all four wins have come against Oregon and Oregon St. The Beavers have painted their practice field blue this week in order to get ready for the "smurf turf." QB Katz is avg 151 ypg but completing just 47% and 1st-year QB's in Riley's offense usually struggle espcecially on the road. Boise will be concerned with MOV in this one with TCU beating Oreg St 30-21 in week 1 and will want to make another statement on the Bue Turf.
PHIL’S FORECAST : BOISE ST 38 OREGON ST 14

 

 

#5 OREGON AT ARIZONA ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OREGON 273
150
37
1.8
–
ARIZONA ST
112
210
19
3.1
–
The Oregon "point a minute" offense has been unstoppable thru the first 3 games avg 63 ppg and 614 ypg. Last week the Ducks ran for a school record 528 yds against Portland St. The Sun Devils meanwhile nearly upset Wisconsin but their game-tying PAT was blocked with 4:09 left. The last three times the Ducks have traveled to Tempe they have won by an avg of 44-17 and look for more of the same here.
PHIL’S FORECAST : OREGON 38 ARIZONA ST 17

 

 

#7 TEXAS VS UCLA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
UCLA 98
70
8
3.3
••
TEXAS
167
210
26
3.0
 –

These two teams have not met since 1998 which was HC Brown's 1st year and #6 UCLA won 49-31 at home vs #23 Texas. The Longhorn defense was exceptional last week as they held the Tech offense to just 176 total yds in the 24-14 win while offense has continued to "struggle" by Texas standards as they are avg just 359 ypg over the first 3 weeks. UCLA is off a big win over #23 Houston as they ran for 265 yds (5.2). Texas does have the Red River Rivalry on deck but their defense will prove to be too much for the Bruins.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TEXAS 27 UCLA 6


#9 FLORIDA VS KENTUCKY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
KENTUCKY 131
150
20
2.0
–
FLORIDA
194
240
37
2.2
•
The Gators have won 23 in a row in this series. Last year's game was best remembered for UK DE Wyndham knocking Tebow unconscious with a concussion in the 41-7 win. This year the Gators offense has gotten off to a slow start as Brantley has yet to have a 200 yd game. The Kentucky offense has thrived with an improved QB Hartline who is avg 227 ypg (72%) with a 5-0 ratio but they will be making a big jump here as the Gator D is one of the best in the country and while UF has Bama on deck, they should win comfortably here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: FLORIDA 34 KENTUCKY 17

 

#12 S CAROLINA AT #17 AUBURN
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
S CAROLINA 127
203
23
1.7
–
AUBURN
179
268
25
2.9
–
South Carolina's only win in this series came back in 1933 (1-6-1) and is the first meeting since 2006. This will be SC's first road game of the season as they have rolled to a 3-0 start led by PS#1 RB Lattimore who has rushed for 333 (4.8) inlcuding 182 vs Georgia two weeks ago. Last week they were able to rest some as they played FCS Furman while Auburn is off their 27-24 come from behind OT win vs Clemson. Auburn QB Newton is avg 175 ypg (57%) with a 7-3 ratio and is their leading rusher with 309 (6.2). I thought highly of both teams in the offseason and they have done nothing to change my mind so far. With both teams essentially even, I'll go with the Tigers at home by a FG.
PHIL’S FORECAST : auburn 27 south carolina 24

 

 

#14 ARIZONA VS CALIFORNIA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CALIFORNIA 150
183
27
2.5
–
ARIZONA
131
253
31
2.8
••
These two teams had complete opposite outcomes last week as Cal's defense allowed 316 rush yds (6.4) in the 52-31 loss to Nevada while Arizona is coming off arguably HC Stoops most profile win as they upset #9 Iowa. The Wildcat special teams and defense made some big plays early and they held on late for the 34-27 win. QB Foles is avg 293 ypg (79%) with a 5-3 ratio. In LY's game, RB Vereen filling in for the injured Best rushed for 159 yds (5.3) in Cal's 24-16 win. My computer projects just a 384-333 yd edge for the Wildcats and Cal has performed well in this series and will make it a close game throughout.
PHIL’S FORECAST : ARIZONA 31 CALIFORNIA 26

 

 

 

#16 STANFORD VS NOTRE DAME
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
STANFORD 190
223
34
1.4
•
NOTRE DAME
141
283
25
3.1
–
Last year Notre Dame blew a 8 pt 4Q lead and snapped a 8 game winning streak vs the Cardinal. Last week was no different as the Irish again blew a 4Q lead and lost a heartbreaker to MSU on a fake FG in OT to fall to 1-2. The Cardinal have been impressive on both sides of the ball this year as a week after shutting out UCLA 35-0, the offense put 68 pts on Wake Forest last week. The Cardinal have outscored their first 3 opp's by a 52-14 margin but have lost 7 str in South Bend and the Irish sooner or later will learn to how to win the close games (0-6 in their L/6 decided by a TD or less).
PHIL’S FORECAST: NOTRE DAME 30 STANFORD 27

 

 

#19 MIAMI, FL AT PITTSBURGH
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MIAMI 93
270
27
2.5
•
PITTSBURGH
122
205
23
1.9
–
Pittsburgh is just 1-14 all-time vs Miami and these two have not met since the Hurricanes left the Big East for the ACC in '04. Pittsburgh DE Romeus is out for this game and that is a huge loss for the Panther pass rush as they will try to put pressure on UM QB Harris like OSU did (4 Int's). The Hurricanes are clearly the best team in the ACC and they could very well win every game the rest of the way in the regular season.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Miami 28 Pittsburgh 21

 

#21 MICHIGAN VS BOWLING GREEN
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BOWLING GREEN 73
210
19
2.9
–
MICHIGAN
312
265
41
2.3
••••

The Wolverines coming off their big win over Notre Dame struggled last week vs UMass and were down 17-7 but did lead 42-24 in the 4Q before the Minutemen scored a couple of garbage TD's. The Wolverines are naturally led by NCAA total offense leader Robinson who has 559 rush yds (7.6) and is avg 224 pass ypg (70%) with a 4-1 ratio. Bowling Green is off a 44-28 win over Marshall last week but the victory proved to be costly as QB Schilz injured his shoulder and will not play here. Pankratz will get his first start in front of 110,000+ and the Wolverines will be more focused than last week.
PHIL’S FORECAST : MICHIGAN 48 BOWLING GREEN 17

 

#25 MICHIGAN ST VS N COLORADO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
N COLORADO 45
178
12
2.2
•
MICHIGAN ST
266
243
39
2.4
–
LAST 13 YEAR MATCHUPS
HC Dantonio after calling one of the most gutsy plays in the last couple of years in the 34-31 OT win vs Notre Dame suffered a heart attack and will not coach here. OC Don Treadwell who was the MSU WR coach from '00-'02 and Cincinnati's OC for 3 years will fill in for Dantonio until he returns in a few weeks. The Spartans run game has been dominant so far avg 242 ypg (6.6) and already has two players in Bell and Baker over the 300-yd rush mark. Northern Colorado plays in the Big Sky conference and went just 3-8 LY including a 49-3 loss to Kansas. While the Spartans have huge games against Wisconsin and Michigan on deck, they should win comfortably in what should be an emotional game playing without their HC.
PHIL’S FORECAST : MICHIGAN ST 38 NORTHERN COLORADO 10

 

 

Upsets of the Week:
BUFFALO OVER BOWLING GREEN
WESTERN MICHIGAN OVER IDAHO

 
#2 OHIO ST VS EASTERN MICHIGAN
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
E MICHIGAN 54
103
5
4.1
–
OHIO ST
352
268
57
1.1
••
LAST 13 YEAR MATCHUPS
Last week Pryor threw his first interceptions of the year (6-2 ratio) but the Buckeyes were still dominant in the 43-7 win over Ohio. The Bucks' defense is tied for #1 in the NCAA in TO's forced but the ST's have given up 3 TD's and had a 4th called back last week. E Michigan has lost 15 str games but is much improved this year and nearly beat Army in the opener. QB Gillett is avg just 117 ypg (58%) with a 4-3 ratio but has 172 rush yds. The Bucks defense had three shutouts last year and will be looking for one here as E Michigan may want to stay healthy for the conference schedule.
PHIL’S FORECAST : OHIO ST 52 E MICHIGAN 3

 

#4 TCU AT SMU
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TCU 198
248
39
1.6
•••
SMU
53
223
17
3.1
–

This is the 90th meeting between two former SWC rivals that play for the Iron Skillet. The Horned Frogs have won 9 of the last 10 matchups in this series (34-7 avg win) and this year looks to be no different as the Frogs are a legitimate national title contender and will need to win big each and every week to continue to impress the voters. The Mustangs are a much improved outfit under HC Jones and made their first bowl game in 25 years last year. However they are still a year or two away from being able to win against their metroplex rivals (just 32 miles apart).
PHIL’S FORECAST : TCU 38 SMU 17
 

 

#6 NEBRASKA VS S DAKOTA ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
S DAKOTA ST 37
53
0
3.5
–
NEBRASKA
354
233
51
1.9
–
LAST 13 YEAR MATCHUPS

Nebraska is coming off an impressive 35 pt win at Washington LW as QB Martinez ran for for 137 yds (7.2) and three TD’s including the longest TD run by a freshman in Nebraska history (80 yds) and threw for another 150 yards (63.6%) and a score. The defense ended Washington QB Locker's run for the Heisman as he completed just 4 of 20 passes. This week they take on S Dakota St who returned 15 starters from LY's 8-4 team that made the FCS playoffs. The Jackrabbits did go to Minnesota LY and only lost by 3 but the Cornhuskers are clearly one of the best teams in the country as they are validating my #5 preseason ranking of them and my computer agrees with a 587-90 yd projection.
PHIL’S FORECAST : NEBRASKA 45 S DAKOTA ST 0


#8 OKLAHOMA ATCINCINNATI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OKLAHOMA 134
320
33
1.5
••
CINCINNATI
101
245
18
2.6
–
This game will played in Paul Brown Stadium (Bengals). In their only meeting back in '08 OU dominated with a 52-26 win and outgained Cincy by 266 yds. The Sooners last week led AF 27-10 before hanging on for a 27-24 as they struggled containing the AF option offense. That won't be a problem this week as the Bearcats are a pass-first team. The key matchup will be Cincy's #110 pass D allowing 247 ypg with an 8-1 ratio going up agianst OU Jones avg 284 ypg (62%) with a 7-2 ratio. While the Bearcats do have a couple of extra days to prepare for this and Oklahoma has Texas on deck, after last week's game the Sooners will be focused and resemble the team that crushed FSU in week 2.
PHIL’S FORECAST : oklahoma 41 cincinnati 17

 

#11 WISCONSIN VS AUSTIN PEAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
AUSTIN PEAY 60
80
10
1.8
–
WISCONSIN
330
330
54
2.6
–
LAST 13 YEAR MATCHUPS
Wisconsin is off a close win over Arizona St where they blocked the game-tying PAT with 4:09 left. It was their 2nd straight sub-par performance and this week I expect them to be sharper in all phases of the game as they take on FCS Austin Peay who was just 4-7 a year ago. This year the Governors lost to FBS Middle Tennessee 56-33 but they were competitive despite giving up 654 yds. My computer projects 660 yds for the Badgers with 330 both rush and pass as they gear up for their Big 10 schedule.
PHIL’S FORECAST: wisconsin 55 austin peay 10

 

#13 UTAH VS SAN JOSE ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SAN JOSE ST 57
153
8
2.6
–
UTAH
214
268
37
2.0
•••
The Spartans were competitive in LY's game with the score tied 7-7 in the 4Q before the Utes pulled away 24-14. Utah QB Cain has filled in for the injured Wynn and the Utes offense hasn't missed a beat as he is avg 227 ypg (77%) and completed 20 of 23 passes (school record) last week in the win over UNLV. The Utes special teams might be the best in the country with a couple of blocked kicks and PR Shaky Smithson is avg 26.6 ypr and has 2 TD's already. San Jose St nearly became another FCS upset victim as they just got past S Utah 16-11 LW. The Spartans are still adjusting to 1st-year HC MacIntrye schemes and the Utes will roll in this one.
PHIL’S FORECAST : UTAH 41 SAN JOSE ST 6

 

#15 LSU VS #22 WEST VIRGINIA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WEST VIRGINIA 125
160
13
2.6
–
LSU
140
210
27
2.1
••
LAST 13 YEAR MATCHUPS
LSU is a different team playing at night in Baton Rouge (25-1 SU in Sat night gms under Miles) and last week won their home opener 29-7 vs Miss St despite being outgained 268-264 thanks to 5 MSU TO's. LSU QB Jefferson has struggled avg just 115 ypg (58%) with a 2-2 ratio but the ground game has come to life this year avg 203 ypg (4.9). WV dominated Maryland LW as they led 28-0 mid 3Q. QB Smith is avg 267 ypg (70%) with a 7-1 ratio and RB Devine has 354 (4.8). Last year the Mountaineers went into SEC country (Auburn) and outgained them 509-400 but lost thanks to 5 TO's. LSU continues to get outgained yet come away with wins just like last year and sooner or later that eventually comes back to bite you but they pull it off again this week.
PHIL’S FORECAST : LSU 20 WEST VIRGINIA 17

 

 

#18 IOWA VS BALL ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BALL ST 86
113
9
3.0
–
IOWA
180
263
34
2.3
–
Iowa is off the tough loss to Arizona where they trailed 27-7 at HT thanks to a blocked punt which set up a TD, a 84 yd IR TD and a 100 yd KR TD. They rallied to tie it at 27 but had their XP blocked and the Cats drove 73/9pl for the win. QB Stanzi is avg 237 ypg (64%) with a 6-1 ratio but the run game struggled last week with just 29 (1.1). The Cardinals are off a 24-13 loss and it could have been closer as they missed 2 FG's and an xp and allowed a 76 yd TD off a deflected pass. Iowa does have Penn St on deck but Ferentz usually has his team prepared and focused after a loss.
PHIL’S FORECAST: IOWA 31 BALL ST 10

 

#20 USC AT WASHINGTON ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
USC 238
273
40
1.9
••
WASH ST
78
238
17
2.4
–
USC has won 7 straight in this series by 33 ppg inlcuding its last visit to Pullman a 69-0 win where the Cougars did not cross their own 45 yd-line. The Trojans despite their 3-0 record have struggled on both sides of the football and have slid 6 spots in the AP poll while Washington St showed some life last week in a loss to SMU but is still a year or two away from being competitive in the Pac-10. USC HC Kiffin has been looking for a complete effort from his squad and may get it here.
PHIL’S FORECAST : USC 48 WASHINGTON ST 17

 

#23 PENN ST VS TEMPLE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TEMPLE 121
125
14
2.1
–
PENN ST
194
260
24
2.6
–

HC Golden returns to his alma mater (also a PSU asst) where he played under Paterno. The Owls are off to their first 3-0 start since 1979 thanks to a comeback win over Connecticut last week. Penn St recovered from their road loss to #1 Alabama with a 24-0 win vs Kent St but RB Royster has still not rushed for more than 40 yds in a game this year. The Lions have owned this series over the last four years outscoring the Owls by a combined 154-9 and have outgained them by 268 ypg including 2 shutouts. While the gap between these two programs has closed dramatically the last couple of years, the Lions are still the superior team even with a big game at Iowa on deck.
PHIL’S FORECAST : PENN ST 27 TEMPLE 13