Daily Blog • September 25, 2010

NFL Selections 14-12 (53.8%) So Far This Season

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS FOR SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 26TH
TENNESSEE AT NY GIANTS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TENNESSEE 107
103
23
2.4
#28
NY GIANTS 113
253
29
2.6
#30

Both teams suffered big losses last week as the Titans turned the ball over 7 times and loss to a Steeler team playing without its starting QB. The Giants were taken apart by the Colts and only had 1 drivew over 35 yards. QB Young was benched last week for his own concern and now has to go on the road and face a deep DL and quality WR corps. I'll go with the Giants.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ny GIANTS 23 TENNESSEE 16

 

 

CLEVELAND AT BALTIMORE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CLEVELAND 58
127
10
3.2
#20
BALTIMORE 157
235
21
2.1

#27
The Browns figured to be 2-0 coming into this game and clearly have disappointed with a 0-2 start against two of the weaker teams they will face this year. This week they will again start QB Wallace (229 yds, 52%, 1-1) but the running game struggled last week with just 73 yds (2.8). The Ravens self-destructed last week as Flacco threw 4 ints which cost them the game against CIN. This week they will be a different story as the Ravens get their 5th straight win over their division rivals.
PHIL’S FORECAST: BALTIMORE 23 CLEVELAND 6

 

 

CINCINNATI AT CAROLINA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CINCINNATI 166
228
28
2.1
#32
CAROLINA 120
195
13
3.4
#17

The main story here will be the starting debut of Clausen for the Panthers as Moore's erratic play clearly cost them in the first two games. Last week the Bengals continued their domination of the AFC North with a win against the Ravens thanks to 4 Flacco Int's. While CAR HC Fox will try to lean on RB's Williams and Stewart 171 rush yds together (3.7) to take pressure off their young QB, the Bengals clearly have more balance on offense and get the road win.
PHIL’S FORECASTL: CINNCINNATI 27 CAROLINA 13

 

 

SAN FRANCISCO AT KANSAS CITY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SAN FRANCISCO 118
220
20
1.5
#26
KANSAS CITY 135
203
25
2.3
#3

The Chiefs are off to an unexpected 2-0 start in spite of QB Cassel who had his 7th game with under 200 yards passing and 7th game with 2 Int's last week. The run game has improved significantly TY and is avg 138 yds (4.2) and their special teams have made several big plays. The Niners are a disappointing 0-2 but did stand toe-to-toe with the defending champs last week but costly TO's did them in. They are in must-win mode here and despite playing on the road in the raucous Arrowhead get the win by a FG.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO 20 KANSAS CITY 17

 

 

DALLAS AT HOUSTON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DALLAS 72
343
20

1.6
#10
HOUSTON 95
318
31
1.5
#19

There is no team in the NFL that is more desperate for a win than the Cowboys who have started out 0-2 due to blatant mistakes and bad play calling. Despite holding CHI to just 1 of 11 of 3rd Dns and just 38 yds rushing (2.0) the Cowboys lost at home to the Bears as they gave up 6 passes of 15 yds or more. Houston is off a pair of huge wins including an OT effort vs their former OC and Kubiak's mentor. While my computer favors the home team here, the Cowboys are more desperate and I expect their ground game to get going in this one as they pull the upset.
PHIL’S FORECAST: DALLAS 31 HOUSTON 30

 

 

PHILADELPHIA AT JACKSONVILLE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
PHILADELPHIA 107
225
26
2.5
#23
JACKSONVILLE 115
258
23
2.9
#7

The Eagles have named QB Vick the starter and why not after throwing 284 yds (62%) with a 2-0 ratio last week in the win over the Lions. The Jaguars had the misfortune off catching SD off a MNF divsion loss and it translated into a 38-13 beating. QB Garrard imploded with 4 int's after having none in the opener as JAX got taken out of their offense LW as Jones-Drew had 31 yds (2.6). Now they face a PHI defense that has allowed 124 rush ypg (4.2) and I expect them to get the ground game going. The Jags also catch the Eagles in a 2nd straight road game and have a full game of tape on Vick. I will call for the upset here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: JACKSONVILLE 24 PHILADELPHIA 20

 

 

SAN DIEGO AT SEATTLE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SAN DIEGO 64
260
31
1.2
#13
SEATTLE 105
233
22
3.4
#5

The Seahawks have been stout at home thru the years and I expect this year to be no different as they will feed off the energy of HC Carroll and Qwest Field. In week one at home they were able to dominante division rival SF on the scoreboard but only had 242 yds of offense. LW on the road they fell behind 17-0 and never recovered. The Chargers recovered from their MNF loss to dominate the Jaguars 38-13 finishing with 477-350 yd edge. Remember this is a SD squad that is without LY's top RB, WR and OL and it will be interesting to see how they react in a hostile environment again after the week 1 loss. This game will come down to the wire.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 28 SEATTLE 27

 
BUFFALO AT NEW ENGLAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BUFFALO 84
133
10
2.9
#9
NEW ENGLAND 118
273
28
1.5
#1

Buffalo has lost 13 straight games vs NE and this year the Bills are just the 3rd team since 1999 to start the year with less than 200 yards in its first 2 games. The Bills OL can't protect its QBs (1 sack every 7.4 pass att's) and the Patriots always play well after a loss under Belichick. NE gets the bad tast of LW disappointing loss to the Jets out their mouth with a dominating win over the hapless Bills.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 30 BUFFALO 3

 

PITTSBURGH AT TAMPA BAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
PITTSBURGH 87
173
14
1.7
#8
TAMPA BAY 46
215
12
3.4
#4

The Steelers have the best defense in football and their D is the main reason they are 2-0 without QB Roethlisberger in the lineup. The Bucs are also a surprising 2-0 and QB Freeman has improved. Last week he had 178 yds and 2 TD's in the win at Carolina but this week will be tough sledding against the attacking style Steeler defense. It will not matter who starts at QB for the Steelers as they improve to an improbable 3-0 w/out their starting QB.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 17 TAMPA BAY 6

 

ATLANTA AT NEW ORLEANS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ATLANTA 143
243
27
1.9
#6
NEW ORLEANS 94
265
25
0.9
#29
The Falcons rebounded from their season-opening loss to the Steelers and were dominant last week vs Arizona with a 41-7 win (444-267 yd edge). QB Ryan was very efficient throwing for 225 yds (66%, 3-0) with RB Turner (groin) out for most of the game. The Saints came from behind to beat the Niners on MNF but lost RB Bush (ACL). Both meetings were close last year with the Saints winning both by 8 and 3 pts respectively. I expect more of the same here as the defending champs start 3-0.
PHIL’S FORECAST: new orleans 28 atlanta 21

 

DETROIT AT NY MINNESOTA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DETROIT 57
165
17
3.4
#21
MINNESOTA 97
295
28
1.6
#16
The Vikings offense has struggled with the injuries at WR and Favre has not been sharp in the two losses. This week they get the Lions who they have beaten 9 of the last 10 times (25-15 avg score). LW's score was not as close as it looked as PHI jumped out to a 35-17 in the 4Q before DET scored a couple of late TD's. MIN RB Peterson is back to the old Peterson and ran for 145 yds (5.2) last week. The Vikings get the much-needed win before next week's bye.
PHIL’S FORECAST: MINNESOTA 27 DETROIT 7

 

WASHINGTON AT ST LOUIS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WASHINGTON 94
245
23
1.2
#2
ST LOUIS 95
238
11
3.6

#11

The Redskins led 20-7 in the 1H but lost a surprising shootout in the 2H and OT last week. The Rams are rebuilding with rookie QB Bradford but have played respectable in their first two games. This is the 3rd straight team that the Rams have faced with a new starting QB but this week they face a team that has a significant upgrade at QB in McNabb (426 yds 74% 1-0 LW). They also will face their former DC Jim Haslett who was passed over for the HC job after going 2-10 as an interim HC in 2008. The Redskins defense will be sharp in this one and get after Bradford.
PHIL’S FORECAST: WASHINGTON 27 ST LOUIS 10

 

INDIANAPOLIS AT DENVER
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
INDIANAPOLIS 74
320
26
1.1
#25
DENVER 101
149
18
2.0
#31

The Manning Bowl was blowout as the Colts slammed the Giants at home with a 410-257 yd edge. Now Manning faces a beat up Bronco secondary as CB's Bailey (knee) and Goodman (thigh) may not be 100%. The Broncos were impressive at home last week but this week take a big jump in competition and QB Manning has been very successful vs the Broncos with a career 7-2 record.
PHIL’S FORECAST: INDIANAPOLIS 24 DENVER 17

 

OAKLAND AT ARIZONA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OAKLAND 115
210
20
2.6
#15
ARIZONA 138
139
21
2.5
#24

Both of these teams are suffering from QB issues as the Cardinals maybe rethinking their decision to cut Leinart after QB Anderson reverted back to his 2009 form with 2 int's last week in the blowout loss. The Raiders look like they have already closed the book on the Campbell era for now as they replaced him with Gradkowski (162, 50%, 1-1) who plays within himself and the system. This is the Cardinals home opener and I will side with them but I must admit my confidence is not high on the pick.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ARIZONA 20 OAKLAND 17