Daily Blog •December 3, 2011

 

FCS Playoff Forecasts

Stony Brook at #1 Sam Houston St
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
STONY BROOK 181
115
25
2.1
-
SAM HOUSTON ST
204
215
39
1.6
-
First meeting. Stony Brook won their first ever playoff game becoming the first Big South Conf team to win a playoff game with a come from behind win over Albany. They trailed 28-10 early 3Q but scored 21 unanswered pts ending with a 422-348 yd edge. While SB did not face a playoff tm in the regular ssn but did play 2 FBS tms incl a previous trip to Texas in their opener as they lost 31-24 in OT to UTEP despite a 410-401 yd edge. A week later they lost 35-7 to Buffalo (outgained 342-298). After losing their starting QB Michael Coulter to ssn ending surgery after 4 starts, SB was led by Kyle Essington. In 6 of his 7 reg ssn starts (4 pass att vs CCU in snowstorm) he avg’d 229 ypg (66%) with a 15-1 ratio. Essington threw for 258 yds (50%) with a 2-1 ratio vs Albany LW. The Seawolves strong running game is led by the duo of Miguel Maysonet (1560, 6.6, 15 TD) and Brock Jackolski (1332, 6.6, 15TD). However Albany did hold SB to a ssn low 164 yds rushing (3.2). Sam Houston St is returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2004. They come in as the #1 seed as they are the only undefeated team in the FCS. They only faced 1 playoff team TY beating Central Arkansas 31-10 with a 415-271 yd edge (UCA QB Dick knocked out of gm). However they also beat FBS New Mexico 48-45 with a 547-528 yd edge which was the last straw costing NM HC Mike Locksley his job. The Bearkats are led by QB Brian Bell who is avg 161 ypg (63%) with a 14-3 ratio with 147 yds (2.5)rushing. RB Tim Flanders is a Big reason for SHSU’s success leading the team with 1095 yds (5.0, 20 TD) rushing and is the #1 receiver with 27 rec (15.0). Unfortunately for Stony Brook they not only face the #1 seed but also the #1 rush D and scoring D in the FCS as SHSU is allowing just 59 ypg (2.3) rushing and 12.6 ppg. While SB is #4 in the FCS in TO Margin (+17) SHSU is #2 (+24). Look for the Bearkats to win their 14th straight.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SAM HOUSTON ST 38 STONY BROOK 24

New Hampshire at Montana St
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NEW HAMPSHIRE 181
205
32
2.7
-
MONTANA ST
209
270
34
2.7
-
Both teams had a bye LW and the only prior meeting was in the 1976 Div-II quarterfinals when MSU won 17-16 at home. NH is playing in their 8th straight FCS playoffs. LY the Wildcats went 1-1 on the road in the playoffs beating Bethune-Cookman 45-20 but losing to eventual runner-up, Delaware 16-3. TY after losing to FBS Toledo in their opener, the Wildcats went 3-1 vs playoff teams outscoring them by an avg 37-34 and outgaining them by an avg 437-201 That 1 loss to CAA Champ Towson 56-42, despite a 611-527 yd edge (even TO). NH ended their reg ssn with a 30-27 win over Maine, which kept the Bears from sharing the CAA crown. The Wildcats are led by QB Kevin Decker with 279 ypg (69.7%) with a 20-14 ratio and is the #2 rusher with 417 (3.4, 9 TD). His 2 top targets are WR’s Joey Orlando (49, 12.6, 3 TD) and frosh RJ Harrish (46, 14.3, 7 TD). They have 3 RB’s with 338+ yds led by Dontra Peters with 568 (5.1, 7 TD). Montana St makes their 2nd straight playoffs and 5th overall and will try to win their 1st playoff gm since 2006 as LY they were shocked at home 42-17 by NDSU. For a 2nd straight ssn they shared the Big Sky Conf Title but are off a 36-10 loss to Rival Montana, as they were outgained 473-250. Surprisingly that was the only playoff team they faced TY as the other BSC teams beat up on each other keeping them out of the playoffs. They did open vs Utah losing 27-10 but were only outgained 292-258 (-2 TO). The Bobcats are led by QB DeNarius McGhee with 215 ypg (61%) with a 22-10 ratio and 244 yds (3.4, 3 TD) rushing. His top rec is former Oregon St transfer Elvis Akpla with 49 rec (9.2, 11 TD). RB Cody Kirk leads with 1,233 (5.8) and 14 TD’s. Heading into the ssn’s final week, NH looked to be a team on the playoff bubble as a loss to Maine would leave them just 7-4, but the win made them an easy pick. MSU looked to be a lock for a playoff seed but a blowout loss to Montana gave the Grizzlies a seed and left the Bobcats disappointed. The Wildcats are experienced on the playoff road with 9 of them in the past 5 yrs going 4-5 but have won their playoff opener 3 straight years. While MSU will not want to be knocked out in the 1st round for a 2nd straight ssn they must face an experienced NH team that has faced a tougher schedule. Look for the Wildcats to pull of the upset.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW HAMPSHIRE 31 MONTANA ST 30

Wofford at #5 Northern Iowa
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WOFFORD 281
75
17
2.7
-
NORTHERN IOWA
169
190
30
1.4
-
First meeting. Both teams had a bye LW which should give UNI the advantage preparing for the Terriers Wingbone offense. Both teams will be making their 4th playoff appearances in the last 5 years. UNI came up just short vs Iowa St in their opener losing 20-19 despite a 385-328 yd edge. Their only other loss was against the only playoff team they faced losing to North Dakota St 27-19 and were only out gained 349-345 but were -2 TO including an int that ended QB Tirrell Rennie’s school record streak of 171 passes without an int. Wofford gave Clemson a scare losing 35-27 and only being outgained 476-399. The Terriers faced 2 playoff teams (both SoCon foes) beating Appalachian St 28-14 (407-247 yd edge) and losing to #3 seed Georgia Southern 31-10 (outgained 401-278). UNI QB Rennie is avg 164 ypg (60%) with a 11-2 ratio and lead the team with 739 (5.4, 9 TD) rushing. Not far behind is RB David Johnson with 730 (4.4, 8 TD) who also leads with 30 rec (13.6, 3 TD). Two WR’s actually have more rec yds in Terrell Sinkfield (27 rec, 17.0, 6 TD) and Jared Herring (27, 15.6, 3 TD). UNI also has the #4 scoring defense (16.2 ppg) and is #5 in TO Margin (+15). Wofford leads the FCS with 356 ypg rushing. QB Mitch Allen is avg just 64 ypg (76%) with a 4-7 ratio but is the #3 rusher with 700 (5.0, 10 TD). Their top 2 rushers are RB Eric Breitenstein with 1,343 yds (5.8, 16 TD) and Donovan Johnson with 897 (9.0, 9 TD). WR Brenton Bersin has 23 (18.4, 2TD)of the tm’s 48 rec. Thanks to a 23-20 OT win over Illinois St in the ssn finale, which surprisingly kept the Redbirds out of the playoffs, UNI shared the MVFC Crown with #2 seed North Dakota St. Wofford needed a TD with :37 left to beat Chattanooga 28-27, to get the at-large bid as a loss would have put them on the playoff bubble. LY Wofford was knocked out by GSU 23-20 in the playoffs while UNI was upset 14-7 by Lehigh at home and heard about it all offseason. Surprisingly UNI is just 3-3 in the playoffs at the UNI-dome since 2006. Look for the Panthers to end all the talk and send the Terriers home early.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NORTHERN IOWA 30 WOFFORD 20

Central Arkansas at Montana
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS 51
245
20
2.3
-
MONTANA
179
275
32
2.9
-
First meeting. The Bears started the season 1-3 but those 3 losses were to eventual #1 seed Sam Houston St and 2 FBS teams incl a 48-42 OT loss to Louisianna Tech. The Bears have now 8 straight incl LW in their 1st ever playoff gm as they never trailed on the road LW beating OVC Champ Tenn Tech 34-14 with a 436-349 yd edge. The other playoff team they face TY was SHSU, as they lost 31-10 being outgained 415-271 after starting QB Nathan Dick was knocked out on a late hit. LY the Grizzlies saw their streaks of 12 straight BCS Title and 17 straight playoff appearances both end. Montana started TY 2-2 with losses to FBS Tennessee (42-16) and Sacramento St (42-28). They won their next 7 straight incl against the only playoff tm they faced with a statement 36-10 win over rival MSU (473-250 yd edge). Thus restarting both of their streaks. Former Arkansas transfer QB Nathan Dick is avg 274 ypg (64%) with a 30-8 ratio and 103 yds (1.8, 2 TD) rushing for UCA. Former Ole Miss transfer WR Jesse Grandy leads with 46 rec (15.9, 8 TD). RB Jackie Hinton leads the Bear’s ground game with 666 (4.7, 4 TD). Grizzly QB Jordan Johnson is avg 179 ypg (59%) with a 15-6 ratio and is the #4 rusher with 330 (5.3, 3 TD). Having to replace their #2 all-time leading rusher TY Montana used the RB-by-comitee approach led by Peter Nguyan (589, 5.7, 1 TD), Jordan Canada (474, 5.6, 5 TD) and Dan Moore (342, 3.5, 7 TD). Their top 2 receivers are Jabin Sambrano (28, 17.6, 7 TD) and Sam Gratton (365, 12.6, 1 TD). While Montana has the playoff history this will actually be Robin Pflugrad first FCS playoff gm as a HC while it will be UCA’s HC Clint Conque’s 2nd. While QB Dick should keep it closer then the computer projects look for the Grizzlies to pull out the win in the Battle of the Bears.
PHIL’S FORECAST: MONTANA 31 CENTRAL ARKANSAS 24

Old Dominion at #3 Georgia Southern
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OLD DOMINION 101
230
27
1.8
-
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
289
225
40
1.9
-
First meeting. GSU has the long playoff history but is actually playing in just their 2nd playoffs in the last 6 years but did come up 1 gm short of the Championship game LY. Old Dominion won an at-large after finishing tied for 2nd in the highly competitive CAA but ins in their 1st ever FCS playoffs. ODU faced just 2 of the other 4 CAA playoff teams losing to CAA Champ Towson 39-35 (outgained 535-482) and upsetting James Madison 23-23 (362-342 yd edge). ODU won their first ever FCS playoff game defeating MEAC Champ Norfolk St 35-18 thanks in part to being +2 TO’s as they only had a 406-385 yd edge. GSU leads the FCS with 6 Championships but their last one was in 2000. In fact they are in just their 2nd playoffs in the past 6 years. GSU went 1-1 vs playoff teams losing 24-17 to App St being outgained 320-201 but with the SoCon Crown on the line blew out Wofford 31-10 with a 401-278 yd edge. They finished the reg ssn losing to #2 Alabama 45-24 (out gained 462-341) but had 302 yds rushing against the then #1 rush D in the FBS. They were able to recover from that physical game with a bye last week. The Monarchs True frosh QB Taylor Heinicke took over the starting job at the half of game #5.He is avg 255 ypg (71%) with an amazing 20-1 ratio and is the #3 rusher with 290 yds (4.7, 3 TD). ODU has 5 rec’s with 34+ rec led by Nick Meyers with 57 (11.5, 7 TD) and Reid Evans with 46 (11.9, 3 TD). Their top 2 rushers are Angus Harper with 602 yds (4.5, 9 TD) and Colby Goodwyn with 534 (4.5, 3 TD)/. The Eagles have the FCS’s #2 rushing offense (319 ypg) led by former Georgia Tech transfer QB Jaybo Shaw who is avg 99.6 ypg (52%) with an 8-3 ratio and is the #4 rusher with 364 yds (9.1, 5 TD). They have 3 RB’s with 537+ yds led by Robert Brown with 834 (6.4, 5 TD). While top rec Jonathan Bryant has just 9 rec he is avg an amazing 33.7 ypc with 2 TD’s. While ODU has the FCS’s #10 scoring offense (35.8) GSU has the #7 scoring offense (35.9). Look for the game to be closer than the computer predicts but we can’t go against the #2 seed at home especially as ODU only has a week to prepare for the option.
PHIL’S FORECAST: GEORGIA SOUTHERN 37 OLD DOMINION 28

 

Maine at Appalachian St
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MAINE 96
215
23
2.9
-
APPALACHIAN ST
124
270
26
2.5
-
Both teams are 8-3 and coming off a bye. Maine won the only previous meeting 14-13 in the opening round of the 2002 playoffs on the road. The Black Bears are making their 4th playoffs under 19 yr HC Jack Cosgrove but just their 2nd in the past 8 years. Their last trip in 2008 lasted 1 game a 40-15 loss at Northern Iowa. The Mountaineers are making their 16th playoff trip (7th straight) under 23 yr HC Jerry Moore who has led them 3 straight FCS Championship (‘05-07). However in 2 of the last 3 yrs App St has been knocked out by a CAA team including Villanova LY (42-24). The Black Bears only lost to Pitt 35-29 being outgained by just 381-371. Against 3 playoff teams they went 1-2 being outgained in all three. They beat JMU 25-24 in OT (385-402) but lost to CAA Champ Towson 40-30 (341-418) and with a possible share of the CAA crown on the line lost to New Hampshire 30-27 (336-361). App St did not fare as well vs their FBS for losing 66-13 to Virginia Tech (outgained 548-293, -4 TO). They went 1-1 vs playoff teams losing 28-14 to Wofford (outgained 407-247) but handed #2 seed GSU their only FCS loss 24-17 (320-201 yd edge). Maine is led by QB Warren Smith, who is avg 240 ypg (64%) with a 17-10 ratio and is the #2 rusher with 249 (2.6, 6 TD). The Bears have 5 receivers with 28+ rec’s led by Mauri MacDonalds with 58 (10.2, 5 TD) and Justin Perillo with 45 (9.9, 3 TD). RB Pushuan Brown leads with 944 yds (4.9, 10 TD), App St QB Jamal Jackson replaced DeAndre Pressley (812 pass, 386 all-purp), starting the last 6 games. Jackson is avg 192 ypg (62%) with a 14-6 ratio and is the #2 rusher with 308 yds (3.9, 7 TD). His top target is WR Brian Quick with 64 rec (16.5, 11 TD). RB Travaris Cadet leads with just 655 yds (4.5, 5 TD). While Maine is a surprise team TY, App St’s 3 reg ssn losses are their most since 2005, but of course that is the year of their 1st FCS Championship. While Maine has just 1 net close win App St has 4 TY. The Computer ranks these teams as even calling for App St to win by their 3 pt home edge but we will call for the upset as the Bears have had 2 weeks to think about their 3 pt loss to NH.
PHIL’S FORECAST: MAINE 24 APPALACHIAN ST 23

Lehigh at Towson
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
LEHIGH 86
300
28
2.4
-
TOWSON
214
190
31
2.6
-
Lehigh leads the series 10-1 but have not face Towson since they left the Patriot League in 2003. While many expected Lehigh to repeat as Patriot League Champs TY, few expected Towson coming off 4 straight losing seasons to win the CAA Crown. That was the Tigers 1st conf Championship since moving up to 1-AA in 1987, while the Mountain Hawks took home their 10th PL crown. Towson is playing in their 1st FCS playoff gm, Lehigh is playing in their 8th but just their 2nd in the last 7 years, Towson lost to Maryland 28-3 despite a 378-335 yd edge (-3 TO), They did go 3-0 vs playoff teams winning 39-35 over ODU (555-482 yd edge), 40-30 over Maine (418-341 yd edge) and 56-42 over New Hampshire (outgained 611-517). Lehigh face just 1 playoff team losing to New Hampshire 48-41 in OT (outgained 506-447). Lehigh QB Chris Lum is avg 340 ypg (67%) with a 31-15 ratio and 96 rush yds (1.78, 2 TD). Their top 2 rec’s are Ryan Spadola with 83 rec (17.6, 10 TD) and Jake Drwal with 77 rec (11.8, 9 TD). RB Zack Barket leads with 706 (4.9, 4 TD). Towson QB Grant Enders is avg 187 ypg (68%) with a 14-8 ratio and is they #2 rusher with 379 (4.6, 4 TD). WR Tom Ryan leads with 37 rec (14.5, 3 TD). However the Big story of the season is True Frosh RB Terrance West with 1242 yds (6.8) and leads the FCS in scoring with 27 rush TD’s. LY Lehigh went on the road an shocked Northern Iowa 14-7 before losing to CAA member Delaware 42-20.. The Hawks have the experience edge and are #3 in the FCS in ttl off (479 ypg) but that is against a weaker schedule. The Computer calls for Towson to win by their 3pt home edge but the tigers have faced the tougher schedule and we’ll call for Lehigh to be knocked out of the playoffs by a CAA teams for a 3rd straight time.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TOWSON 34 LEHIGH 28

James Madison at #2 North Dakota St
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
JAMES MADISON 211
85
17
1.8
-
NORTH DAKOTA ST
124
160
21
1.3
-
First meeting. The Bison make just their 2nd playoff but LY went 2-1 losing to eventual Champ Eastern Washington in OT 38-31 on the road. NDSU looked to be the team to beat this year at 9-0 including a 37-24 win over FBS Minnesota (336-292 yd edge, +2 TO) and a 27-19 win over the only playoff team they faced, MVFC co-champ Northern Iowa 27-19 (349-345 yd edge). Then they were shocked by Youngstown St losing 27-24 and being outgained 451-293. They won their ssn finale over WIU and claimed the MVFC Title, the #2 seed and the bye week that goes along with it. The Dukes on the other hand had to sweat out the selection had to sweat out the playoff selection with a 7-4 record to make their 10th playoffs. JMU lost to North Carolina 42-10 (outgained 461-211). They went 0-3 against playoff teams losing 25-24 to Maine (402-385 yd edge), 23-20 to ODU (outgained 362-342) and New Hampshire 28-10 (outgained 330-295) but all 3 of those gms were played without QB Justin Thorpe (out 5 gm inj). LW JMU had to come from behind to beat Eastern Kentucky 20-17 with a last second FG despite a 393-213 yd and a 24-8 FD edge. The Bison are led by QB Brock Jensen with 181 ypg (69.8%) with a 11-2 ratio and is the #4 rusher with 77 yds (1.4, 5 TD). They have a 2 headed backfield led by Sam Ojuri with 781 yds (5.9, 8 TD) and DJ McNorton with 716 (4.9, 11TD). Their top 2 receivers have over half the teams rec’s led by Warren Holloway with 55 (13.6, 6 TD) and Ryan Smith with 40 (11.8). While JMU QB Justin Thorpe played in just 7 gms this ssn, he is still the #3 rusher with 390 (3.9) and is avg 97 ypg passing (61%) with a 4-2 ratio. Their run game is led by RB’s Dae’Quan Scott with 1,241 (5.6, 12 TD) and Jordan Anderson with 834 (5.2, 9 TD). Two receivers have combined for over half of the tm’s rec’s in Brian Barlow with 29 (9.7, 1 TD) and Kerby Long with 28 (13.4, 2 TD). LY NDSU came out of the opening round and upset #4 seed Montana St, JMU has a chance to do that here as the computer calls for a close game, but with the YSU loss still in their memory we will look for NDSU to pull out a close one at home.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NORTH DAKOTA ST 24 JAMES MADISON 17

Norfolk St at Old Dominion
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
GRAMBLING 134
190
22
3.0
-
ALABAMA A&M
106
245
17
1.7
-
This will be the teams 4th meeting in the SWAC Championship Game. The Tigers have won all 3 previous by an avg 30-10 incl 45-6 in the most recent meeting in 2005. Grambling St is 16-5 all-time vs Alabama A&M but A&M won earlier TY 20-14. The Bulldogs scored with 49 seconds left to complete the comeback after trailing 14-0 in the 3Q. The Tigers had a 419-316 but were -5 TO's in that game. Look for the Tigers to take the rubber Match and 23rd SWAC Championship
PHIL’S FORECAST: GRAMBLING 23 ALABAMA A&M 17