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The Bills return to Ralph Wilson Stadium for only a second time in their last 7 games. Buffalo has now lost 4 straight after giving up a 77/12pl TD drive with 1:06 LW and now has the psychological disadvantage of having a losing record for the first time TY. Attrition can be blamed on them avg just 285 ypg & 12.5 ppg the L4W as they are #2 in the NFL with 13 players lost to the IR. The Titans continue to live and die by the running game and the 4 times this season when they’ve totalled 90 or more rush yards they’ve gone 4-0 incl Chris Johnson topping 130 yards 2 of the L3W having a ssn high 190 (8.3) vs Tampa. They now face a Bills squad that has allowed 124 ypg and 4.5 ypc rushing on the ssn. The Titans also will get a boost knowing they trail HOU by 2 games with the Texans down to a 3rd string QB and a meeting with them in the season finale. The Titans losses TY have come vs JAX, PIT, HOU, CIN and ATL who came into LW as the NFL’s #3, #2 #1 and #6 overall D while the Falcons were the leagues #2 rushD. Buffalo’s #24 D and #22 rush D come nowhere close.

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The Bears have a big situational edge at home vs a KC team off B2B primetime games under Tyler Palko with a road game vs the Jets on deck. CHI has the #16 and #25 units (+9 TO’s) vs a top 6 sked TY while KC has the #26 and #23 units (-4 TO’s) vs a bottom 5 sked. KC’s upset wins vs OAK and SD are looking more like mirages now. While they’ve only been outgained by 36 ypg their L3 prior to PIT, they have given up 168 ypg rushing (4.4) and a 6-0 ratio with just 3 sks. They are dead last in the NFL with just 12 sks TY (1 every 24.6 att’s) and have been outscored 134-75 in the 2H (no OT). CHI went to Caleb Hanie LW vs OAK who hit for 254 yds (50%) with a 2-3 ratio vs a physical OAK defense. Minus the CAR game when everyone was unsure about handling Newton the Bears have held foes to 79 ypg rush (4.1) at home TY with 5 of their L6 foes under 80 ypg. Their pass defense has been very good the L5W avg 277 ypg (56%) with a 5-12 ratio. I’ll take the team with the home field advantage with a more aggressive defense and special teams here.

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MIA beat OAK 33-17 in LY’s matchup. MIA had a 24-11 FD and 471-263 yd edge with 5 of 13 drives going 65 or more yards. MIA outrushed OAK 186 (3.8) to 16 (1.3) and ran 82 plays vs 45 for OAK. MIA has the situational edge at home with extra rest vs an OAK team coming cross-country. They are also playing at an impressive level right now since falling to 0-7. Over the L4W they have the #23 and #4 units (+3 TO’s) although DAL was the only team with a winning record. Moore has been very effective with 225 ypg (67%) and a 7-1 ratio with a solid 8.7 ypa. The defense has played very well holding teams to 85 or less yds rushing in 4 of their L5 games (61 ypg 3.0 in those) and have a 2-6 ratio the L4W also. OAK has played on the road TY but this will be their 3rd road game in 4 Wks with another vs GB on deck.

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CIN dropped to 2-8 vs PIT with a 24-17 loss just 3 games ago. The Bengals hung tough thru most of 3 Qtrs until PIT wrapped up a 81/11pl drive with a TD. This allowed them to ramp up the pressure on Dalton (170 yds 50% 2 TD) who threw his 2 int’s in the 4Q. PIT is off LW’s game vs KC where they struggled on off but still got the win thanks to their D forcing TO's. This is PIT’s 1st home game in a month where they have dominated statistically with a 408-250 yd edge (but -3 TO’s). In home games, PIT is the only team with top 10 rankings total yardage, rushing and passing on both sides of the ball. Over the L4W PIT has the #5 and #5 units (0 TO’s) vs CIN with the #9 and #11 units (0 TO’s). PIT is the only current top 10 offense CIN has faced TY and while CIN outgained CLE by 115 yd they barely got past them. I’ll go with the home team that knows how to play in big games.

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BAL is 6-0 vs the Browns with a 27-11 avg score. Flacco has avg’d 206 ypg (68%) with a 8-3 ratio vs CLE while Rice has avg’d 88 ypg (5.0) in the L5 matchups. BAL has the situational edge with extra rest and only have IND on deck. They have also played flat after big wins after beating PIT and HOU TY. Flacco hasn’t been very inspiring on the road avg 256 ypg (55%) with a 7-4 ratio and disappointing 5.9 ypa despite overt attempts by Cam Cameron to get him jump started. CLE had a rare 17-7 lead at the half but once again failed to make adjustments at the half. They were outgained 241-87 from that point on. McCoy played better than his stats (151 yds 47%, 2-1) indicate due to numerous drops and had the team in place for a long FG that was ruined by a bad snap. Hillis (65 yds 3.4) did just enough to keep the offense balanced and look for the Browns to emphasize the run game here and keep it close.

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The Jets are just 1-4 on the road TY after logging 15-7 run inc playoffs in Ryan’s 1st 2 years. They’ve only been outgained by 20 ypg but they haven’t helped out Sanchez (227 ypg 57% 5-4 away) by being outrushed 144 (4.4) to 89 (3.3). Despite tossing 4 TD’s LW, Sanchez had an awful day with 180 yds (49%) as the offense struggled to find a rhythm. WAS is off a rivalry game vs DAL where they went deep into OT and a long trip out and back from SEA where they pulled the upset. The Skins are much healthier than in the last few weeks and it showed as they gained 416 yds in the road win. WAS D’s also continues to keep them in games and the L5W they’re allowing 324 ypg and 21.2 ppg. I’ll take an improving WAS team in this one vs a struggling Jets team.

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This is the 1st road game for the Falcons in 4 Wks and this is HOU’s 1st home game in 4 Wks. After a slow start TY the Falcons have the #1 and #2 units (-1 TO’s) the L4W vs HOU’s #14 and #1 units (+5 TO’s). Over the L3 games, Ryan has been solid avg 310 ypg (66%) with a 6-1 ratio. Even more impressive has been the Falcons #2 run defense which has allowed 57 ypg (3.1) the L4W. ATL dominated a one dimensional MIN team LW at home with 15-5 FD and 207-97 yd edges at the half with a 17-0 lead. A bad 3rd Qtr and a muffed punt let MIN back into the game but a goal line stand shut them down. HOU started Leinart LW only to have him KO’d with a left shoulder injury and had to bring in #3 QB TJ Yates (70 yds 53%). HOU only had 2 FD and 47 yds in the 2H as the defense forced JAX to punt on 5 straight drives and forced Gabbert out of the game in the 2H. Tough spot for a 3rd string QB but the Texans D get them the home win.

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TB has the situational edge with CAR in its 3rd straight road game. TB won both meetings LY 20-7 and 31-16. In the 1st meeting CAR was done in by -3 TO’s and the 2nd were outgained 421-300 with 65 yds coming on their final drive which was SOD on the TB1. This isn’t a very good matchup for the Bucs with their #30 rush defense (140 ypg 4.8) which has pulled in just 17 sks (30th 1 every 21 att’s) vs the Newton led offense. CAR has gained 400 or more yds in 4 of its L5 games being held to 279 coming off the bye vs TEN. TB is off a misleading final vs TEN LW as they had 14 pts off 4 TEN TO’s and until their final possession had just 1 drive over 35 yds. Not a big fan of what either team has done recently so I will go with the home team

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Incl playoffs, NE is 2-5 vs IND with a 31-28 victory. NE had a 31-14 lead in the 4th Qtr vs a better Colts defense but Manning led the Colts on a pair of 7 play/73 yd drives. IND was at the NE 24 with 37 sec left when Manning was int’d. Since then the Colts have struggled with a defense that has given up 23 or more pts in 16 of those gms. LW vs CAR they had just 1 yd in the 1st Qtr and were outgained 281-127 prior to the 4Q. Painter has dissolved in his L5 games avg 147 ypg (54%) with a 1-8 ratio while Brady just posted 361 yds (71%) with 3 TD’s vs PHI. Belichick does have a grudge match vs Shanahan on deck and I’ll call for NE to win by 20 here.

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This is DEN’s 4th road game in 5 weeks. These are two evenly matched teams statistically with DEN’s #25 and #18 units (-5 TO’s) vs MIN’s #23 and #19 units (+1 TO’s). MIN started LW’s game with 2 FD’s and 33 yds which had them punt on their 1st 4 drives and down 17 pts. The defense came up huge in the 3Q allowing 1 FD and 28 yds. MIN got back into the game afterwards thanks to a muffed punt which set up a 39 yd TD. MIN was held to 64 yds rushing (2.7) LW. This allowed ATL to play coverage and Ponder has avg’d 196 ypg (57%) with a 3-4 ratio over the L3W. The Vikings secondary is atrocious right now as in the L6 games they’ve given up 267 ypg (74%) with a 16-0 ratio despite an All-Pro season from DE Jared Allen (13.5 sks). LW DEN moved to 5-1 with Tebow under C as the OL gave him plenty of time and his 22 rush att’s were the most by a QB in the SB era. Tebow won’t put up fantasy stats (6 straight gms under 200 yds passing) but he has a 8-1 ratio and his play style wears out defenses.

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SF will have extra rest to dwell on the fact they were manhandled by the Ravens LW and are now 2 games behind GB for the #1 seed. SF was held to a season low 170 yds as Smith was rocked by 9 sacks. While SF is only +7 ypg at home TY they have also held teams to just 72 ypg (3.3) rushing and are +13 TO’s with a 29-14 avg score. They are 6-0 vs foes with a losing record TY outgaining them by 58 ypg (8th best) (+15 TO’s) with a 28-12 avg score. They’ve only been outgained by 9 ypg on the road (-4 TO’s) but are allowing a whopping 141 ypg (4.7) rushing with a 23-10 avg score. STL has major issues on the OL (39 sks or 1 every 10.3 att’s), a bottom barrel WR situation (only BUF’s is worse) & have sent 10 CB’s to IR so far TY.

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The Cowboy’s have now won 4 straight . “I like plans where we get out there and get 30-point wins,” Jerry Jones said. “I’m going to talk to him [Jason Garrett] about that. We need bigger wins.” The Cardinals are just the type of opponent that the Cowboy’s can appease their owner with. Cowboy nation has been well supported in trips to Phoenix but Dallas has lost B2B trips outright (‘10 26-27 & ‘08 24-30 in OT). The Cardinals return home after a 3 game road trip and have to be pleased having knocked off Philly and St Louis but they have been outgained by 82 ypg at U of Phoenix Stadium. The Cowboys numbers on the road are not overwhelming but they’ve outgained 3 quality non-div foes (NYJ, SF & NE) by 101 ypg going. Down the stretch LY the Cowboys topped 100+ yds rushing each of the L/8 games. That bodes well for a DAL squad against ARZ #21 rush D. Whichever QB is under C they’ve taken a beating as their 36 sacks allowed are #31 while the Cowboys DL feasts away from home with 20 sacks in the 5 games.

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Despite having to travel the Packers are in a solid situation with extra rest vs a Giants team off a MNF road game. GB is 4-0 vs foes with a winning record TY outgaining them by 52 ypg (5th) (+8 TOs) with a 30-21 avg score. On the road TY Rodgers is avg 315 ypg (71%) with a remarkable 16-1 ratio and 9.64 ypa. GB’s #30 defense does give up the big yards (393 ypg) and 3rd Dn conversions (43.4% 29th) but they’ve only allowed 7 rush TD’s and the secondary has a 19-22 ratio. GB has given up 400+ yds in 5 of their L6 games but have countered with a 9-12 ratio and 13 sks. This is the only game out of primetime for the Giants in a 4 week span and to their credit they know how to deal with an undefeated team this late in the season. DET’s physical DL gave a good indication on how to disrupt Rodgers holding him to 65 yds (56%) with a TD in the 1H and the Giants are more disciplined than the Lions. The pressure of an undefeated season will start to hit GB, but I still think they get the win here.