Daily Blog •December 10, 2011

 

Heisman Thoughts and Prediction:

 

First, I will say that I voted for Trent Richardson on my Heisman ballot and believe this year will be similar to 2005 when Reggie Bush won the Heisman but after the national title game, Vince Young with his dominating performance vs USC would have been the winner on 95% of the ballots. Richardson had a great game in the first meeting with 169 yds vs an outstanding LSU defense and this time I expect him to have even a bigger game.  What’s more impressive about Richardson’s season was the fact that he faced 8 Top 50 D’s incl 5 in the top 20 and D’s keyed in on him as they were unafraid of QB McCarron.

I am projecting that Baylor’s Robert Griffin III will win the Heisman and there is no doubt that he has had a great season for the Bears. I do think that some of the Heisman voters wait until the last minute to vote and valued Griffin’s big game vs Texas more than any other game. The reason I did not vote for Griffin was the fact that he did not face many Top 40 D’s and Baylor lost 3 games including trailing Oklahoma St 35-0 at HT and lost to 6-6 A&M by 27. He is surrounded by some great talent including RB Ganaway who had 1,300+ yds and an incredible WR in Wright who catches anything within 20 yards of him.

Andrew Luck will no doubt be the top player taken in the upcoming NFL draft and if I were an NFL GM he would be my guy but I don’t think Luck played great in the big games this year despite being surrounded by a powerful rush attack that features 2 All-American OL. While granted he does not have explosive WR’s the fact that the team avg’d 208 rush ypg (5.3) but were unable to take advantage thru the air in the big games really hurt Luck’s chances with me.

Montee Ball has been impressive with his TD’s this year but I have never really been a TD guy because a lot of times you get a lot of 1-yd TD runs after a different guy has led you down the field or after TO’s a team may get a short field. Back in 1975 when Archie Griffin won his 2nd Heisman, big back Pete Johnson had like 25 TD’s while Archie only had 6 TD’s because Woody Hayes wanted to punch it in with the bigger back despite Archie running for several hundred more yards than Johnson. Granted Ball has been a big part of driving Wisconsin down the field but he clearly has benefited from having QB Wilson in the backfield with him.

Tyrann Mathieu of LSU was on my ballot as I believe in voting for the biggest playmakers on the top teams in the country. Mathieu was the reason (PR TD) why LSU only tailed Georgia 10-7 at HT despite having 0 FD’s. He also electrified the Tigers after trailing Arkansas 14-0 with a 92 yd PR TD. He leads the country in forced fumbles and leads an outstanding LSU team in tackles.

Heisman Projection

1. Robert Griffin III, Baylor

2. Andrew Luck, Stanford

3. Trent Richardson, Alabama

4. Montee Ball, Wisconsin

5. Tyrann Mathieu, LSU

Army/Navy Forecast

Army vs Navy
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ARMY 342
53
24
1.9
-
NAVY
330
55
32
1.5
.
FedEx Field, Landover MD. This is the 112th meeting in this historic rivalry. Army has lost a series record 9 straight to Navy being outscored by a combined 120-23 over the L/4Y. LY Navy jumped out to a 17-0 2Q lead but fumbled at their own 23 and Army scored 6pl later. After another fumble, Army drove down to Navy 3. On 1st&gl QB Steelman was stood up, fumbled and Middleton snagged it out of the air and raced 98 yds for a TD (longest FR series history). Navy went on to win 31-17 despite being outgained 337-325 and outFD’d 20-16. Last time this game was decided by 8 pts or less was in 2000 when Navy won 30-28. This year Army’s wins were over Northwestern, Tulane and Fordham and 4 of their losses were to MAC tms. Army lost all 7 gms away from West Point being outscored by 19 ppg. Steelman ret’d after missing 3 gms (inj) and went down on the 2nd play of their 42-14 loss to Temple 3 wks ago. He is critical in the Army option that has avg 13 fewer ppg and 73 fewer ypg without him the L/3. The Cadets lead the FBS in rushing (351 ypg) incl RB Maples’ 984 yds (7.4). After losing 6 in a row Navy’s only hope for a bowl was to win out but a loss to SJSt snapped a streak of 8 straight bowl appearance. Five of their 7 losses have been by a comb 11 pts with 5 losses to bowl tms. QB Proctor leads with 817 rush yds (4.6) with RB Teich a close #2 (790, 4.7). Both tms went 0-2 vs Air Force and Rutgers. While Navy was outgained in those gms (390-386), they were only outscored 28-27. Army had a 336-307 yd edge but was outscored 26-13 and actually led AF 14-0 at half. Army is trying to avoid being the 3rd str Sr class to never have beaten either service academy. These teams met with losing records from ‘98-’02 with Navy going 3-2 incl crushing Army 58-12. With neither team in the post ssn the stage is set for the true “military bowl”.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NAVY 23 ARMY 17

FCS Playoff Forecasts

Montana St at #1 Sam Houston St
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MONTANA ST 141
190
23
2.7
-
SAM HOUSTON ST
199
130
33
0.9
-
All-time series is even at 2-2 (HT 2-2) with Sam Houston winning 26-23 in 1991. Montana St had a 399-248 yd edge over New Hampshite at home last week but trailed by 10 twice in the game. UNH scored a TD with :06 left but the Bobcats blocked the would be tieing PAT for a 26-25 win. Sam Houston St trailed Stony Brook 10-3 at half and the teams were tied 3 times in the 2H before the Bearkats scored the game winning TD with 1:01 left for a 34-27 win. That was SHSU’s only FCS game that they did not win by 14+ pts with only their 48-45 win over FBS New Mexico being closer.They were outgained 376-343 by the the Seawolves but were able to keep their undefeated season going. With both teams surviving last week after a bye week, look for them to get back on track, which while making this game closer thAn the computer predicts should still see the Bearkats moving on.
PHIL’S FORECAST: sam houston st 30 montana st 21

Maine at Georgia Southern
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MAINE 131
210
26
2.4
-
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
314
115
35
2.3
-
Both prior meetings were here in the playoffs with GSU winning both (31-28 in ‘87 & 31-7 in ‘02). What may be the most surprising is not that Maine upset SoCon member Appalachian St on the road LW but that they are the only CAA team still alive in the playoffs (4 CAA tms lost LW). In LW’s upset the Black Bears had a 466-275 yd edge and turned a 13-6 halftime lead into a 34-12 road win. Georgia Southern is also a sole conference survivor (2 SoCom tm lost LW). They survived a determined CAA member Old Dominion 55-48 with a 607-560 yd edge. GSU were lucky as they recovered their own fumble in the ODU EZ for a TD to make it 55-41 2:03 left. The numbers call for GSU to pull out the win and even though Maine’s defense shutdown App St LW it is hard to prepare for the option attack in a week. We will agree with the computer and side with the home team but we would not be shocked if the Black Bears pull the upset. 35-28.
PHIL’S FORECAST: GEORGIA SOUTHERN 35 MAINE 28

Lehigh at North Dakota St
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
LEHIGH 51
310
23
2.5
-
NORTH DAKOTA ST
154
190
28
1.6
-
First Meeting. For a second straight season Lehigh knocked off a major conference champ on the road. LY they shocked Northern Iowa, 14-7 and LW upset CAA champ Towson 40-38 with a 482-339 yd winning on a safety with 5:02 left. However they were the more experienced team as Towson was making their first playoff appearance. North Dakota St only led James Madison 10-7 at half and 19-14 in the 4Q before DJ McNorton broke off a 60 yd TD run to put the game away 26-14. They only had a 329-301 yd edge but got 53 a& 44 yd FG’s to stay ahead of JMU. Lehigh will be without leading WR Spadola, who set a school record with 96 rec TY, and a PL record with 1,614 rec yards. He was suspended for forwarding an tweet with a racial slur. While #2 receiver Drwal has 82 rec of his own, the Mountainhawks will need another WR to step up to split NDSU’s attention and their #3 receiver has just 33 rec. Look for the Bison to put up even more than the computer predicts and win by a TD or more. 34-24.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NORTH DAKOTA ST 34 LEHIGH 24