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Including playoffs the Colts are 7-0 vs the Ravens with a 24-9 avg score. IND finally switched to Orlovsky LW who hit for 89 yds (71%) when NE was up 31-3. NE had 24-8 FD and 345-106 yd edges before giving up 299 yds and 3 TD in the 4Q. IND also replaced DC Larry Coyer and for good reason as they are giving up 144 ypg rushing (4.1). Their #21 pass defense is allowing 243 ypg (72%) with a 21-5 ratio and their 109.3 QBR is worse than HOU’s 100.5 QBR LY. Prior to LW IND only had 1 game decided by 7 or less (TB on MNF). IND does have a bit of a situational edge as BAL has a road game vs SD on Thursday on deck. BAL did get a “needed win vs an inferior foe” and while they clearly have the talent edges here and I'll call for them by 2 TD’s.

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This is a vital game for the Bengals who need an AFC win (7-3) with 2 of their next 3 vs NFC foes. CIN has the #13 and #12 units (-3 TO’s) the L4W in 4 games vs top 8 defenses with an 28-18 avg score deficit. CIN found themselves down 28-7 at the half vs PIT LW due to bad special teams play (blk’d FG, fumbled KR) and penalties (6-80 yds) including a 45 yd pen to give PIT the ball on the CIN 20. Neither Dalton (135 yds 46% 1 TD) nor Benson (52 yds 4.0) were able to get into a rhythm. TJ Yates had a steady game vs ATL LW with 188 yds (48%) with 1 TD. He didn’t turn the ball over and he had 9 FD’s via the air. The defense kept ATL from getting any momentum in the 1H holding them to 6 FD and 123 yds with 4 punts, 2 int’s and a FG. HOU likely won’t have WR Johnson (97 yds 24.3) who injured his other hamstring LW. I applaud Dalton’s efforts so far TY but HOU has the #14 and #1 units (+6 TO) the last 4 weeks with 2 top RB’s and I’ll take the road team.

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This is brutal spot for OAK as it’s their 4th road game in 5 Wks after going cross country to play MIA in 80? weather to 32? here. Both teams are fairly close statistically with OAK having the #10 and #21 units (+5 TO’s) vs GB with the #6 and #28 units (+5 TO’s) the L4W. OAK is a bit thin though at the two units they’ll need to challenge GB here are CB and WR’s. The Raiders #4 rush attack was smothered by MIA LW being outrushed 209 (4.8) to 46 (3.3) which kept Palmer off balance (273 yds 49% 2-1). OAK punted on 8 of their 1st 9 drives (int on other) and were held to 2 of 11 on 3rd Dns. OAK’s is giving up 375 ypg and 25 ppg which is 25th and 24th on the road. GB despite a defense allowing 408 ypg at Lambeau Field where Rodgers has avg 317 ypg (72%) with a 17-3 ratio and a stellar 9.6 ypa.

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KC didn’t get any favors from the schedule maker to close out the season. This is their 3rd road game in 4 Wks with home games vs GB and OAK. They are off a misleading final LW as CHI was without Cutler and Forte (right knee) was KO’d in the 1Q. The Chiefs won simply because the CHI offense was incompetent. KC held CHI to 6 FD and 85 yds in the 2H not because the defense was dominant but because Hanie was awful. KC has been held to 10 or less in 5 straight games and their only offensive TD in 12 Qtrs was off a 38 yd Hail Mary pass at the end of the 1H which was tipped by Urlacher. They won the yardage battle for the 1st time since the IND game and since then they’ve avg’d 182 ypg (57%) with a 2-10 ratio in the air. The Jets #7 pass defense is the real deal as they are allowing 205 ypg (54%) with an 11-14 ratio and a 6.6 ypa. Sanchez continues to be mediocre with 210 ypg (57%) with a 19-11 ratio which explains how the Jets have been outscored 74-40 in the 1Q. I’ll call for the Jets to win by 10 in a lower scoring game.

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MIN took DET to OT at home in the 1st meeting losing 26-23. MIN blew a 20-0 lead at the half as the Lions dominated the game the rest of the way with 15-5 FD and 308-108 yd edges as MIN had four 3 & outs in the 2H. DET will be without DT Suh (susp) and they could be in a very foul mood if they lost B2B games vs elite teams on national TV. They are 4-0 vs teams w/a losing record with a 424-375 yd edge (+7 TO’s) with a 38-20 avg score. Even with the GB meltdown, Stafford is avg a healthy 267 ypg (64%) with a 15-7 ratio at home and gets the #25 pass defense that is allowing 269 ypg (70%) with a 15-2 ratio on the road. MIN’s defense has not made an int in the L/200 pass attempts while allowing 18 pass TD’s. The Vikings let another win escape them in the 2H LW as they let DEN score on 5 of their 7 2H drives after a fantastic 1H. MIN has been outscored 193-101 in the 2H incl OT which is where DET has been its best w/a 206-94 scoring margin. It’s not likely MIN will risk Peterson (high ankle sprain) on the road and on turf in a dismal season and I’ll call for the home team to let off some steam here to make up for their last home effort.

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Potential letdown spot for NO off 2 prime time games vs the Giants and Lions. Brees has surgically dismantled NDIV foes avg 338 ypg (70%) with a 20-6 ratio and keep in mind 39% of TY’s receiving yds is via Graham and Sproles. TEN’s #18 pass defense has been decent TY but they haven’t faced a lot of good QB’s. They’ve allowed an avg of 288 ypg (69%) with a 9-1 ratio to Roethlisberger, Schaub, Ryan and Fitzpatrick. While RB Johnson has excelled 3 of the L4W (it’s been vs CAR’s #27, TB’s #29 and BUF’s #24 rush defenses. Hasselbeck has avg’d 141 ypg (57%) w/a 1-3 ratio the L3W and TEN has only scored 30 pts TY vs CLE and CAR. NO is still chasing SF for the #2 seed and I’ll side with the road team vs a TEN team that is playing over its head.

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The Eagles playoffs hopes are gone after a disastrous road trip to SEA where Young tossed 4 int’s and the defense gave up 174 yds (5.3) rushing. They have extra time to stew but the chemistry of the team is in question after their high hopes to start the season. It’s unknown if Vick or Maclin will play with the playoffs out of reach. MIA matches up well statistically the L4W with the #23 and #3 units (+4 TO’s) vs PHI’s #7 and #25 units (-6 TO’s). The Dolphins also have a good special teams edge (8 vs 23) as well. MIA has won the yardage battle in 4 of their L5 games thanks to QB Moore who has avg’d 201 ypg (64%) with an 8-1 ratio. They have out rushed foes 125 (4.0) to 68 (3.1) the L6W and have only allowed 217 ypg (56%) with a 4-7 ratio the L4W. PHI has lost 4 of their L5 and their pass defense has been poor allowing 253 ypg (60%) with a 10-3 ratio due to bad safety play and CB Asomugha not fitting into the system. Despite the record MIA refuses to give up on their coach while PHI is trying to figure out what happened to their season.

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Shanahan has held his own vs Belichick going 5-3. Over the L4W these teams are statistically competitive with NE having the #3 and #30 units (-8 TO’s) vs WAS #17 and #7 units (-5 TO’s). NE is 12-2 vs a top 10 defense with Brady at the helm. They have also scored 30 or more in 9 games TY with 7 games of 400 or more yards. WAS has only had 30 pts in 1 game under Shanahan (33-30 loss vs DAL LY 9 pt AD). They’ve only hit 400 yds four times in their L/28 games and their #31 rush attack (88 ypg 3.8) isn’t reliable enough to control the clock vs the #10 rush defense. There is a concern here with WAS #5 pass rush (33 sks 1 every 11.4 att’s) vs a NE OL down to its 3rd string center as Brady is a mid-line passer. Yes, NE has the #32 defense but they are 13th in pts allowed (20.6 ppg) and 2nd in def ypp and +8 TO’s TY vs WAS -13 TO’s. I’ll take the reliable QB that performs well on the road.

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ATL beat the Panthers 31-17 earlier TY. ATL re-established its power rushing attack with 166 yds (4.7) to ease the burden on Ryan (163 yds 64% 1-0). ATL did a good job by holding Newton to 50 yds rushing and 2 of his 3 int’s came on the L2 Panther drives of the game. After a slow start, ATL is playing at a very high level with the #4 and #9 units (-3 TO’s) vs CAR with the #8 and #26 units (0 TO’s) the L4W. ATL has good matchups with Turner (83 ypg 4.3 five 100 yd gms TY) vs the #27 rush defense with a young DL that has started 9 different LB’s behind them. CAR’s #15 pass defense is misleading as they were dead last with an 8.4 ypa before getting a break vs TB. CAR is also allowing a 18-10 ratio and are only 22nd in sacks (23). The Panthers beat up on a bad TB defense with a backup QB and it showed with just 3 drives going for 50 or more yds. The Falcons were ill prepared to deal with a motivated HOU defense and will be much more focused for this division matchup. ATL is one of the best teams in the NFL off a loss and get the win here.

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This is just the 5th regular season meeting. Despite being at home for the 2nd straight week this is an awful situation for JAX. They are off a huge MNF game after waiving Del Rio and founder Wayne Weaver selling the team. They also have a Thursday game at ATL on deck. Prior to MNF the Jags have scored 17 or less in 6 straight games avg 232 ypg (+4 TO’s) with 50% of the yards coming on the ground. In his 6 full starts vs a NDIV foe Gabbert has avg’d 161 ypg (48%) with a 4-2 ratio and been sacked 18 times (1 every 9.9 att’s). TB rested Freeman (thumb/bruised shoulder) LW vs CAR. LY Freeman avg’d 218 ypg (60%) with a 12-3 ratio on the road but TY he’s hit for 250 ypg (65%) with a 5-6 ratio.

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SF won the earlier meeting 23-7 their 4th straight time they held ARZ under 10 pts. SF had 25-11 FD and 431-229 yd edges on a rainy and muddy day with an almost 30 min TOP edge. Gore has avg’d 93 ypg (4.8) in his L7 starts vs ARZ . SF hasn’t allowed a 100 yd rusher in 33 games and only CIN RB Benson (64) has rushed for over 60 on them TY. While SF clinched the NFC West LW they are still battling NO for the #2 seed and Harbaugh already said he isn’t going to let up late in the season. SF has showed no mercy to bad teams TY going 7-0 with a 366-283 yd edge (+17 TO’s) and a 27.8-10.1 avg score. Kolb returned for ARZ LW and had 247 ypg (64%) with 1 TD vs DAL. They are 2-6 under Kolb and have been outgained 384-321 (-4 TO) with a 25-20 score deficit. ARZ had my #4 special teams and have stolen a trio of games (CAR, both STL games) and made one closer (BAL) than it should have been. However, SF has my #2 special teams and Brad Seely is one of the best STC’s in the NFL. SF gets another win in another lower scoring game.

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Both teams match up fairly well statistically with CHI having the #27 and #16 units (+3 TO’s) vs DEN’s #25 and #22 units (+2 TO’s) the L4W and both have top 5 special teams units. While DEN is 2-3 at home TY but three of losses came under Orton and the 4th was vs DET when the Broncos ran a conventional offense. DEN was held to 1 FD and 48 yds in the 1H vs MIN but rallied for 28 pts in the 2H to take the win. They are 6-1 under Tebow TY and won LW’s game without LB Von Miller. They now get a CHI team travelling with shaken confidence after an abysmal effort out of Hanie who had 133 yds (46%) with 3 int and was sacked 7 times. CHI lost Forte (torn MCL) which is arguably a bigger blow than losing Cutler. CHI punted on 7 of 14 drives LW with 3 TO’s, 2 SOD, 1 FG and 1 missed FG. CHI is in disarray and DEN has all the momentum here and are the pick in a lower scoring game.

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The Chargers are essentially out of the playoff hunt in December for the 1st time since 2003 and Norv Turner’s time is limited. They are off LW’s MNF game vs JAX and have a SNF vs BAL on deck. This is BUF’s 4th road game in 5 Wks and both teams have been ravaged by injuries TY. Rivers has only had WR’s Jackson, Floyd, TE Gates and RB Mathews together for 2 games TY and was behind his 4th different OL in as many weeks vs JAX. SD TY at home is outgaining foes by 69 ypg (-3 TO’s) vs 163 ypg (-2 TO’s) LY. Eleven games into the season SD doesn’t have half (19) the sacks of LY’s #2 pass rush (47) and it shows as they went from 6.4 ypa with an 18-16 ratio to 8.0 ypa with a 20-10 ratio. The Bills had excitement early this season after a 5-2 start but now they are traveling for a 4th time in 5 weeks having lost 5 straight. The Chargers played their best game of the season on MNF and continue to play well here.