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The Redskins upset the Giants 28-14 in the season opener. Grossman hit for 305 yds (62%) with 2 TD’s as while the yardage was even WAS held the Giants to 1-10 on 3D. While I’ll never call the Redskins a letdown spot the Giants are off NO, GB and a SNF game vs DAL and they have the Battle of New York on deck. Both teams have battled attrition especially on the OL and DL which has led to the Skins losing 8 of their L/9 while NY dropped 4 straight prior to DAL. Several factors have me calling for the Skins to keep it close as their offense has adjusted to the injuries and over the last month they’ve avg’d 380 ypg which is their best 4 game stretch TY. The Giants D has been mauled of late allowing 432 ypg but to be fair they have faced the leagues top 4 offenses in the L/5 games. The concern is NY’s pass rush that got 26 sks the first 7 games but has just 7 in the L/5 and WAS’s 3 wins have come when they allowed 1 or fewer sacks. The Giants get another much needed win for a playoff run but it will be tough.

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GB celebrated their NFC North title with a 30 pt win over OAK which came at a price as #1 WR Jennings (knee) status is out for the rest of the regular season. KC was throttled LW being held to 3 pts, 1 FD and 4 yds at HT LW vs the Jets. While Rodgers is avg 323 ypg (69%) with a 20-2 ratio on the road TY, their largest MOV on the road has been by 12 pts and they have only outgained road teams by 8 ypg. GB is playing a bend but don’t break defense that has allowed 8 games of 400+ yds which has forced 32 takeaways already TY (32 LY). KC will rely on their ground game to try and control the tempo here. While the offensive problems are well noted (6 straight of 10 pts or less) the D has allowed 318 ypg the L/5 which includes 431 yds to NE. Aside from SS Berry, KC has only had 2 games missed by a starter and have a respectable pass defense (22-17 ratio). The Packers get the win to stay undefeated by it will be tighter than what some predict.

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This is the 4th meeting in as many years incl playoffs. NO won the 2010 season opener 14-9 with a 308-253 yd edge. Brees had a decent day (237, 75%, 1 TD) vs a much more talented and healthier secondary. The Saints offense avg’d 28 FD/gm on the road the first 3 but after HC Payton was inj’d and he stopped calling plays they avg’d just 19 FD/gm the next 3. Look for a return to normalcy as Payton started calling plays in the 2H of LW’s win vs TEN where Brees went 17-20 for 188 yds and 2 TD’s. MIN’s defensive stats are very misleading as over the L5W they’ve only allowed 322 ypg but 33 ppg and they’ve trailed by 17+ at HT in 4 of the games with teams playing it conservative in the 2H. LW the Vikings trailed 28-7 and yet another comeback failed on the last play which wears on a team that is 2-11 on the season. Ponder was taken out of the game (115 yds 52% 2-3) for his own safety and the Vikings making it close was due to the Lions not being ready for QB Webb (109 yds rush 15.6). The Saints will not let up as they are now tied with SF for the #2 seed (SF holds tie-beaker) and look for the offense to continue to try to get Brees the NFL passing record.

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Despite their QB/RB issues this is a good situation for the Bears. SEA is off their 1st MNF game S/’07 vs a beat up DIV foe and have to travel on a short week. In the 1st meeting LY CHI lost 23-20 as the Seahawks were coming off their bye week. CHI won the rematch 35-24 in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score. CHI had a 35-10 lead with 4:40 left (448-147 yd edge) when they relaxed and allowed SEA to score TD’s on drives of 74 and 55 yds. SEA comes in down 3 starting OL vs a CHI defense that is 17th with 29 sacks on the year. CHI held KC to 3 and DEN to 13 in the past 2 weeks and had a chance to win in OT if not for a fumble. Despite his error, Barber had 109 yds rush (4.0) and Hanie stayed within the system (115 yds 63%) and didn’t turn the ball over. SEA will try to run the ball but CHI is only allowing 80 ypg rush (3.5) the L8. SEA has the #26 and #20 units the L4W (+4 TO’s) vs CHI #25, #11 (-1 TO’s) the same span. I’ll take the home team here.

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MIA is 5-2 vs the Bills including a 35-8 win TY. BUF took the opening drive 70/9pl settling for a FG. Their next 7 drives went for 82 total yards ending in 1 FG, 2 Ints, 4 punts being one blocked. MIA scored 21 pts off BUF miscues and held them to 0 for 12 on 3rd Dns. MIA lost their first 7 games by 15 ppg. The offense got turned around and they averaged 28 ppg the next 5 winning 4 of them before QB Moore getting knocked out LW they totaled just 204 yds and 11 FD’s in a 26-10 loss to PHI. BUF was the polar opposite getting off to a 5-2 start with an off avg 30 ppg before losing their next 6 avg just 12.8 ppg. Despite MIA being on the road they still may have the scheduling edge having been home for 2 straight and 4 of the L/5 while BUF is off a cross country beating and is playing only their 2nd game at home in the L/6. I would lean with the Dolphins if Moore is ok but would back off if Losman is making his first start since 2008 when he played for these Bills.

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The Texans have a big situational edge here with the Panthers in their 4th road game in 5 Wks. HOU has a great matchup edge with Foster and Tate (1777 rush yds combined 4.6) vs the Panthers rush defense (129 ypg 4.5) CAR lost both starting rookie DT’s prior to ATL LW and tried to overload the box but Ryan burned them passing (320 yds, 4-0 ratio). Newton’s size makes him tough to bring down but he continues to takes hits especially after running the ball. The length of the NFL season may be catching up to him as in his L/4 games (minus the winless Colts) he’s thrown for only 55% comp with a 3-7 ratio while throwing for 63% comp and a 10-7 ratio in the others. Yates should have plenty of time to manage the game here behind an OL that has started every game together TY and despite getting sacked 5 times against CIN that can be explained by him making his first NFL road start. Look for HOU to keep it simple and focus on their strengths for the win.

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Even with Manning at the helm, the Titans have more than held their own vs the Colts. TEN has a great edge with their OL (13 of 14 starts together) vs the depleted Colts defense. TEN has only allowed more than 2 sacks in one game TY (@PIT) while IND is avg only 1.6 sk/gm on the season. The OL is also gelling as when Chris Johnson tops 100+ yards rushing (4x TY) it opens the entire offense up to play action and the Titans have avg’d 27 ppg going 4-0. That’s a favorable matchup against the Colts who are among the league’s worst rushing D (145 ypg ) and allowed the highest pass comp (72%!). I also like the no-quit character that 1st year HC Munchak brings to this squad as they are 4-0 playing the week after a loss. That attitude and knowing they got outgained in the first meeting is what you need to deal with the pressure of not wanting to be the Colts first “W” of the year.

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This game features one of the most improved teams with CIN against one of the most disappointing teams with STL. While they are the road team the Bengals get the situational edge after a home game vs HOU with a home game vs ARZ on deck. STL is off LW’s MNF game at SEA and can’t be looking forward to their road game vs PIT on deck. None of the opening day starters on the Rams OL were expected to be in the same spot vs SEA with 3 on IR, 1 benched and FA RG Harvey Dahl having had to play RT. STL at home TY if the NO game is omitted they have been outgained by 150 ypg (0 TO’s surprisingly) with a 26-11 avg score. They have also been outrushed 199-88 (5.7-4.1) in those 5 losses. While CIN hasn’t proven to be an elite team TY they are 6-0 vs a foe w/a losing record for a 27-18 avg score thanks to a defense holding them to 92 ypg rush (3.7). I’ll call for CIN by 2TD’s with the STL QB a ? mark.

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Both teams have playoff need. The Lions get a boost with the return of Suh from suspension. That combined with having faced Rodgers, Brees and having a big lead vs MIN has the Lions allowing 403 ypg the L4W. This is only going to be the 3rd home start for Palmer TY (317 ypg 56% 3-4 ratio at home) who admitted that he was starting to get worn down due to having to catch up with the system. The Raiders were mauled by the Packers LW down 46-7 and outgained 388-245 with Rodgers having exited late in the 3rd Qtr. DET had held MIN to 213 yds and 14 pts before Ponder went out and they simply weren’t prepared for Webb which is forgivable. I’ll call for DET by a FG in a higher scoring game.

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This was a hotly contested game by the networks for flex scheduling. In 11 starts Tebow has had six 4th Qtr/OT wins including a 13-10 win LW vs CHI. A closer look at the sked shows that since the DET thumping they’ve been dealt a very favorable hand. Vs OAK, Palmer was getting his 1st start coming off the bye, Cassel hurt his throwing hand getting pulled after just 93 yds before the final drive, the Jets were off a SNF vs NE and had to travel on Thursday. They took advantage of a beat up SD team who missed 2 long FG’s, got MIN without RB Peterson and capitalized on a critical Ponder mistake to set up the game winning FG and got CHI at home with Hanie and without Forte. Brady is avg 336 ypg (66%) with an 18-5 ratio with just 6 sks on the road TY. NE did allow 463 yds LW vs WAS and big plays again hurt them (all’d 7 for 22+ yds) but that is certainly not DEN’s strength. Expect NE to jump out to a big lead early to force Tebow out of the option and pass the ball vs a unit with a respectable 21-18 ratio.

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The Eagles are 1-5 at home TY with their only win coming after the bye when Reid’s game plans are at their best. They are also just 2-7 vs NDIV foes TY as despite a 390-353 yd edge they have been killed by poor ball protection (-11 TO’s) losing by a 26-23 avg score. PHI did get Vick back LW and the rust of his layoff was apparent as he had 208 yds (50%) with a 1-1 ratio. PHI had 3 takeaways which they converted into 17 pts. Sanchez has taken a lot of heat TY as he still struggles to go thru his reads but he’s also not getting a lot of help from the #20 ground game. Age has fully caught up to Tomlinson who has just 564 yds from scrimmage (6.7) and Shonn Greene has under performed with just 67 ypg (4.2) and a pair 100 yd rushing efforts TY. The Jets lack speed on the perimeter which is a break for the Eagles secondary that has given up a 23-12 ratio TY. PHI has a big speed edge and the Jets have a big hole with SS Leonhard (knee) hitting the IR. I'm not impressed with the Jets win over a KC team which has scored 10 or less in 6 straight now vs a PHI team with loads of big play potential that will enjoy the spoiler role.

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This is the 3rd road game in a 4 week span for the Browns and the only NDIV game in their final 6 games of the year. ARZ clearly has the situational edge at home for the 3rd straight with a road trip vs CIN on deck. CLE is 1-4 on the road TY where they have been outgained by 89 ypg (-2 TO’s). QB Wallace will play here and the mental state of the Browns is also uncertain after they went all out vs PIT but failed to beat a QB with 1 leg. ARZ knocked off SF with Skelton at the helm (282 yds 68% 3-2) and have a huge confidence and special teams edge here. ARZ’s #24 pass defense has been much better from BAL on allowing 238 ypg (57%) with a solid 4-5 ratio. ARZ also has a big edge with my #4 spec tms vs CLE’s #27. I’ll call for ARZ by 5 as the injury report here will be key.