Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

A.O.R

PHIL’S FORECAST: SOUTHERN MISS 37 NEVADA 30

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

Remarkably all four AFC West teams are still in the playoff hunt with KC having pulled a stunner in Romeo Crennel’s 1st game as interim HC. It was Orton’s 2nd time TY seeing the Packers & he hit for 299 yds (74%) & no TO’s. The Raiders are playing for their 2nd straight non-losing season after 7 straight years of double digit losses. OAK has true revenge here as they were slammed 28-0 by KC at home prior to their bye. OAK had 6 ints with Palmer taking the field in the 2H for 116 yds (38%) in what was basically his preseason debut. KC is 0-4 in their final home game. They have only won the yardage battle in 3 games TY being outgained by 79 ypg in the other 10. While DC Crennel has a good scouting report on Palmer from his time with CLE the Raiders #6 rush offense get the edge vs a KC team that has given up 146 ypg (4.3) at home prior to GB. The Raiders have big edges in the trenches as they are 5th in sks allowed (22) vs a KC team that is 27th in sks by (23) and OAK is also 4th in sks by (37). However I really like what I saw from the Chiefs last week and I think Orton gives them some stability at QB as they remain in the playoff hunt.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

This is a good matchup for the Broncos with their #1 rush attack (156 ypg 4.7) vs the Bills #25 rush defense allowing 131 ypg (4.7). In Tebow’s 5 road starts they have only been outgained by 11 ypg, have set the tempo by outrushing foes 217 (5.0) to 128 (4.4) and are +4 TO’s with a 25-19 avg score. The Bills defense is starting to show its shortcomings as since the Toronto game they have given up a 16-2 ratio and only pulled in 5 sacks prior to MIA (#31 sks TY). Despite their warts the DEN OL had started 13 straight games and 14 of their 34 sks allowed were in Tebows first 2 starts with 6 sks given up in the 6 games prior to NE. Injuries at WR and the large amount of short/intermediate passes have seen Fitzpatricks numbers drop to 212 ypg (56%) with a 6-9 ratio since WAS with a 5.79 ypa. DEN’s #16 pass defense is a concern as they’ve given up a 22-9 ratio but BUF lacks their explosive ability from the start of the season and DEN is also a cold weather team. While the Broncos are off a huge gm vs NE and travelling across country it’s tough to go against Tebow and Co in any situation as the Broncos still control their destiny in the AFC West with the Chiefs on deck at home.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

The Jaguars won the earlier meeting TY 16-14 as TEN was fielding a new HC and a QB working with a new offense with a starting RB that had sat out most of training camp. JAX dominated the TOP by 19:16 with a 73-49 play advantage on offense but only had a 31 yd edge in the game. TEN’s first 7 drives resulted in 6 punts and a missed FG. The tables have turned as while TEN still remotely in the hunt for a playoff spot they are overall drastically healthier than JAX who had 21 players on IR prior to the TB game. Hasselbeck will get the start but the TEN OL has only allowed 19 sks (2nd) and JAX is only 22nd in sks by. The Jaguars will have the extra rest edge after facing ATL last Thursday but they have been outgained 304-233 on the road TY with an 18-11 avg score. Gabbert only has 3 games with 200 yds passing TY with one on the road (CLE) and is avg 135 ypg (50%) with a 4-4 ratio with a 4.84 ypa vs a 4.4 ypc for Jones-Drew. Regardless of which QB starts for TEN they have a better supporting cast on both sides of the ball.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

ARZ is 1-5 on the road in Dec under Whiz losing by a 31-17 avg score (-89 ypg). ARZ has only played 5 games vs a foe with a winning record (PIT, BAL, DAL, SF) and are 2-3 despite being outgained by 86 ypg (-7 TO’s). They now travel to a cold weather site and while Bengals fans aren’t giving much support (just 41,202 vs HOU) the Cardinals will have to contend with the #7 D. CIN is allowing just 100 ypg (3.7) rushing and minus the STL game, Wells is avg 65 ypg (3.8) TY. CIN also has the edge in pass protection on both sides of the ball allowing just 21 sks (3rd) despite a rookie QB and the Broncos are 6th in sks by (36) with ARZ having allowed 43 sks (30th) prior to LW. ARZ is off an OT win to CLE where they rallied down 10 pts & vs the 1H of the season they are one of the most improved teams in the NFL despite their QB play. CIN also has a good handle on ARZ’s Steeler inspired defense as well. My gives CIN an 83 yd edge here and they are still playing for either a playoff shot with BAL on deck and a rare winning season with a rookie QB at the helm and I’ll call for Benson and the Bengals defense to carry the day.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

NE opened 2011 with a 38-24 win on MNF that sent the first half of the Dolphins season into a tailspin. Halfway thru the 4Q NE had a 514-275 yd edge with a 31-17 lead en route to 622 yds in the game. Brady had a staggering 517 yds (67%) with a 4-1 ratio with 99 yds coming on a Welker TD when the defender slipped. NE continues to be in the hunt for a playoff bye despite a defense that has given up 400+ yds in 8 of 13 games TY (462 ypg in those). While Brady’s stellar play is one huge reason, the defense has forced 25 takeaways after forcing 38 LY and that’s with a beat up secondary. MIA should have Moore back but even after getting a win at cold weather BUF LW with an interim HC you have to wonder how much the Dolphins will have left in the tank with obvious changes coming in 2012.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

BAL improved to 7-0 with a 24-10 win just 20 days ago vs the Browns. Rice ran for a career high 204 yds (7.0) in the game as the Ravens had a 448-233 yd edge. 8 of CLE’s 12 drives ended in punts and only their final drive with the game out of reach went longer than 50 yds. McCoy is 0-8 (26-13 avg score) in AFC North games avg 206 ypg (54%) with a 9-13 ratio being sacked 23 times. Flacco has modest stats vs CLE avg 199 ypg (64%) with an 8-3 ratio with a single game of 300 yds passing. He hasn’t had to do much due to Rice and the Ravens defense which has held 6 teams to under 250 yds offense (5-1) TY. CLE is in its 3rd str rd gm and the Browns are 0-4 in that role S/’00 getting outscored by an avg of 29-6 BAL has a road game vs a more dangerous CIN team on deck.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

This is the much anticipated Battle of New York with the Giants having 4 consec wins (31-22 avg score) but Ryan hasn’t been a part of it yet. NYG are in the middle of a 4-gm stretch where they play 3 div rivals but need every win they can get while the Jets are playing their 4th str NDIV foe. Sanchez hasn’t impressed vs teams with a top 10 pass rush going 2-3 avg 248 ypg (55%) with a 5-4 ratio and just a 6.36 ypa with 13 sacks. Injuries to his RB’s/WR’s/OL ave offset the fact that Manning has only faced 3 top 10 defenses TY (WAS, SF, DAL) and he’s avg’d 316 ypg (62%) with an 11-6 ratio (2 ints off tips) with a very impressive 8.57 ypa at home TY. Both tms need a win for their playoff hopes and despite coming off a brutal 6 gm stretch before WAS the NYG under Coughlin tend to play their best when their backs are against the wall and get the win here.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

The Vikings beat the Redskins 17-13 LY in Leslie Frazier’s debut as a HC. Peterson missed most of the game with an ankle sprain but MIN still outrushed WAS 137 (3.6) to 29 (2.2). After WAS opening drive went 83 yds for a TD their next 8 drives combined for 70 yds with 5 punts, 1 int, 1 FG and end of half. The Vikings are playing for Peterson to get his 5th 1000 yd rushing season & to get some quality snaps for Ponder for 2012. They haven’t made an Int since Wk 5 (25-0 ratio!!!!) & are allowing 29.9 ppg on the road TY. WAS is avg 349 ypg & 20.8 ppg in Grossman’s 10 full games which would avg out to the #14 offense despite one of the ugliest OL’s in the NFL. You have to wonder where the Vikings are physically coming off a stretch of playing 6 str playoff caliber teams. Both tms are building for the future and the only thing at stake here is draft positioning come April.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

The Panthers devastated the Bucs 38-19 who were without QB Freeman (shoulder bruise) just 20 days ago. CAR had a 366-223 yd edge mid-4Q with a 38-12 lead before they let TB go 65/8pl in garbage time. CAR was in full press to boost Newton’s Rookie of the Year chances as he had 4 TD’s with 3 on the ground. CAR had a 163 (4.2) to 78 (2.9) rush edge with 45 of TB’s yards coming off #2 QB Josh Johnson. While CAR’s defensive front 7 has been wrecked by injuries, the offense has had only 1 player (RT Otah) land on IR and his injury history LY had CAR prepared. Aside from Shockey (ribs) missing 1 game they have had their most complete set of players all year. Meanwhile TB’s defense is beat up esp on the DL and their LB’s are still young. On off the WR’s have been disappointing and beaten up Freeman has taken a step back. The winner of this game will most likely finish out of the Div basement which would be a huge step for a CAR tm that came into the ssn with low expectations.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

This is the Rams 3rd road game in 4 Wks where they have gone 1-5. Minus the NO upset they have been outgained 351-242 (-5 TO’s) in gms vs winning foes with a 30-7 avg score. The Rams were forced to use Kellen Clemens who was signed off the street the week prior vs CIN. He did quite well actually with 229 yds (69%) w/a TD despite not knowing the playbook. Now he travels vs a PIT team that is playing for seeding in the AFC. While STL secondary has seen 10 CB’s sent to IR TY foes are running at will on the Rams who gave up 166 ypg (4.7). PIT have outgained foes 9 straight prior to SF by a 377-276 margin but with Roethlisberger hurting this may not be the blowout many would have thought prior to last week

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

SD is 17-2 SU/14-5 ATS in Dec with a 31-16 avg score under Turner which is when they play their best football. SD is 1-6 vs foes with a winning record (-11 ypg) due to -10 TO’s with a 29-23 scoring deficit. Rivers has had to deal with a piecemeal OL and hasn’t known who his skill players are on a weekly basis. Still, vs those winning foes he’s avg’d a decent 276 ypg (58%) with a 13-11 ratio (19 sks). Yes, there is a concern vs a DET team with playoff need and their stout front 7 vs the SD OL but the Chargers skill players will be getting healthier. Stafford has a tough matchup vs SD’s #7 pass defense that has a 22-14 ratio TY vs 18-16 for all of LY. SD has veterans in all of the key places, are playing to keep Turner, get into the playoffs and I’ll take their experience in big games vs a young and overly aggressive Lions team.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

The home team improved to 5-0 when SF beat SEA 33-17 in the season opener. SF had a 19-17 lead after a 55 yd TD pass by Jackson with 3:56 left. Ginn then returned the KO 102 yds for a TD, forced SEA to go 3&out then Ginn returned a punt 55 yds to put it out of reach. SF had a 128-37 yd edge as SEA had 5 punts and 2 TO’s in the 1H. Harbaugh is 3-1 vs Carroll and while this is personal for both coaches, SF has big edges in terms of talent and health all over the field. SEA does have the situational edge at home with SF off a tough physical game vs PIT on MNF. SF is +61 yds and an astounding +20 TO’s vs foes with a losing record but expect the Seahawks and their crowd to give maximum effort.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

PHI blasted DAL 34-7 off their bye week. PHI had a 495-267 yd edge and dominated the clock (+24:18) on the ground with a 239 (6.3) to 85 (8.5) yd edge. DAL was held to 5 punts and an int on their first 6 drives while PHI had 4 TD’s and 2 FG’s. While PHI has been on the wrong side of the TO battle in 7 games TY they have won the yardage battle in 10 games with 7 games over 400 yds. PHI keeps lingering around the NFC playoff chase & destroyed the Jets 45-19 beating them with a balanced gameplan (33 runs/23 pass). DAL has extra rest off LW’s Thur Nite game vs TB but they no longer have RB Murray (brkn ankle) to balance out the offense. DAL Garrett who has struggled with in game decisions and clock management. While this is a key div game for them they have the rematch vs the Giants on deck and I’ll call for the home team by 2 FG’s here.