Happy New Year!!!

This is the inaugural year of the TicketCity Bowl which will be played at the Cotton Bowl and fittingly this is the 1st matchup for these programs. The Raiders return to the post season for the 11th straight year and they are the only team in the Big 12 to be bowl eligible every season in the conference’s existence. Northwestern is headed to its 3rd straight bowl under Fitzgerald and he has made it the program’s goal to win a bowl game for the 1st time S/’48 (lost L/7). TT played Baylor in this stadium on Oct 9th beating the bowl bound Bears 45-38 while this is the Cats 1st trip here. TT will have a significant crowd edge as Lubbock is a 6 hr drive from Dallas and they have many alums in the area.

After throwing the game winning TD pass to knock off Iowa, Persa ruptured his Achilles tendon. Persa had accounted for 75.5% of NW’s offense and his 73.5% comp set a school record and is #2 in B10 history. His replacement is 6’6” pocket passer Watkins who hit 129 (55%) with a 1-4 ratio (49 rush) in his 2 starts and the Cats actually burned the RS off the more mobile Colten for the L/2. The 2 QB’s comb for 6 TO’s in the finale loss to Wisky and Ftizgerald vowed the squad would get right back to work with practice so the frosh QB’s could get more experience before the bowl. On defense NW finished #36 pass eff D (231, 59%, 21-14) led by #1 tkl’r S Peters and top cover CB Mabin. K Demos struggled at times (missing 2 FG’s in the Purdue loss) and would like to atone for missing the potential GW in LY’s wild OT bowl loss to Auburn. P Williams is #3 B10 in net (38.2) with good placement (18 FC).

Tuberville vowed to keep the Air Raid offense but he added more of an emphasis on the run game and after running for over 140 yds in a game 18x in the previous 10Y, the Raiders did it 7x TY led by the combo of Batch and Stephens. The pass #’s shrunk as expected -72 ypg although QB Potts finished as the B12’s #3 passer. The D also had a major scheme change as they went to a 3-4. Depth was a major issue and Tuberville numerous times bemoaned the unit’s lack of speed until he eventually said the best way for them to win was to simply outscore people. Inj’s really hit the secondary hard as TT’s pass D finished dead last in the FBS ypg all’d although they were #87 in my pass eff D (306, 62%, 27-14). TT was #36 in ST’s even though they allowed onside K’s to be ret’d for TD’s in B2B gms vs ISU and Baylor. P LaCour’s net of 38.8 was #16 NCAA and KR Stephens remains 1 of the B12’s best.

A disappointing finish for Northwestern, losing by 21 and 47 after losing QB Persa. No question, Fitzgerald will have new QB Watkins ready with the extra prep time. TT finished the season with wins vs Weber St and Houston but did not beat a BCS team by more than 7 pts on the season. The Red Raiders will win this game but it will be much closer than expected.

A topsy-turvy season comes to an end on NY’s day for UF and PSU. UF has won both previous matchups in the ‘62 Gator and the ‘98 FL Citrus (21-6). PSU plays in its 4th ever Outback Bowl going 3-0 . Paterno is the all-time bowl win leader going 24-11-1 and is 7-2 L/9 vs SEC teams in bowls. UF is playing in their 20th consec bowl (2nd longest in nation) and Meyer is 6-1 in bowls. This is UF’s 4th trip to the Outback where they are 1-2. UF’s fans are used to more prestigious bowls w/BCS bids in 3 of the L/4Y but UF will clearly have the home crowd edge as fans will come out to support Meyer in his last gm. Both teans lost to Alabama but UF actually outgained the Tide 281-273 while PSU was outgained 409-283.

Rob Bolden became the 1st true Frosh QB to start in the Paterno era. Bolden struggled getting the ball downfield causing D’s to put more players in the box to stop PSU’s all-time leading rusher Royster. When Bolden was hurt vs Minn, McGloin came off of the bench. In his 1st start he led the Lions to a win over Michigan with their biggest yard and point totals of the season. Bolden started vs NW but McGloin led them to PSU’s biggest comeback ever (trailing 21-0). And Paterno named him the bowl’s QB starter. Thanks to injuries and attrition the D never quite lived up to the standards of recent editions (top 15 NCAA scoring and ttl D from ‘04-’09). The ST finished #38 although PSU will be w/o their top P Fera who missed the L/2 and was replaced by walk-on true Fr Butterworth and the tm finished w/a 38.4 net. K Wagner hit 8-10 from 40+.

Tough year for the mighty Gators as the offense took a nosedive w/o QB Tebow and struggled with inj’s at RB all yr. QB Brantley is more of a pure passer and not well suited to the Tebow-ran off, so adjustments were eventually made w/TE Reed and bkup QB Burton serving as the Tebow-like QB’s while Brantley remained the st’r and threw most of the passes. Overall UF finished #32 on offense and #13 on defense. New DC Austin faced a tough rebuilding job replacing 5 DC’s (all 1st 3 Rd’s). They all’d 50 ypg more than LY (303 ypg) and 8.7 ppg more. UF’s D only generated 21 sks (tied #10 SEC) after from 39 LY. One bright spot is the secondary that is #11 in our pass D rankings all’g 173 ypg (55%) with a 16-17 ratio led by #1 tkl’r S Black and CB Jenkins. The ST’s are always strong (#3) with P Henry leading the nation in avg and net. One weak spot is kicking as P Henry was forced to take over for the inj’d Sturgis.

This bowl pairs Bama HC Nick Saban vs his former team where he was 34-24-1 from ‘95-’99 with MSU HC Dantonio serving as his DB coach. This is the 1st meeting between these 2 and the 1st time Saban’s faced MSU since leaving there. MSU won a share of the B10 Title for the 1st time S/‘90 and now plays in just their 3rd Jan bowl S/’89. Moments after the ND win, Big 10 COY Dantonio suffered a mild heart attack and the team was led to 2 wins including 1 over Wisky by OC Treadwell. The team rallied for incredible 4Q comebacks vs NW and Purdue to finish with a program record 11 wins. MSU has played their bowl game in Orlando 3 out of the L/4Y (‘07, ‘08) and is 1-1 in this bowl, losing 24-12 to UGA and QB Stafford in ‘08. Bama was selected over LSU because they have never played in the Capital One while LSU was here LY. Orlando is about a 9 hour drive from Tuscaloosa so the Tide should have a strong fan following for this one. Both teams faced PSU with Bama winning 24-3 (409-283 edge) and MSU winning 28-22 (outgained 396-331).

MSU’s offense leader is QB Cousins who fought off shoulder and ankle inj’s to score the GW TD vs Purdue to cap a 22 pt 4Q. He should be 100% with the time off and finished #19 NCAA pass eff. MSU had over 200 rush yd in their first 4 for the 1st time S/’68 and RB Baker became just the 6th MSU soph to run for 1,000 yds. The Spartans have my #37 off and #32 D. The LB’s feature the FBS’s most productive duo in AA Jones and Gordon who were the tm’s top 2 tkl’rs. After allowing a 32-6 ratio in ‘09 (#103 pass eff D), the Spartans improved to 18-17 TY (#22) with all 4 st’rs named All-B10. MSU’s 3 biggest plays of the season came on ST: the blk’d punt vs PU, “Little Giants”: the fake FG in which holder Bates hit TE Gantt for a 28 yd TD pass to beat ND and the “Mousetrap”: trailing NW 24-14 in the 4Q, a fake P on 4&11 at the NW36 in which Bates hit a 21 yd pass to Fowler. P Bates led the B10 in avg and was #2 in net (38.2). K Conroy hit his 1st 13 FG’s in the 1st 7 gms before cooling off to hit just 1-2 in the final 5 and overall MSU finished #49 in ST.

After AL earned their first Nat’l Title since ‘92 LY, a 9-3 season seems disappointing. Still this is one of the most talented teams in the country with their only losses to 2 squads in the SEC Title gm and 10-2 LSU. QB McElroy entered the season 30-0 as a starting QB in HS and college (now 39-3). McElroy was still efficient but held onto the ball too long resulting in 32 sks (+12 from LY). 2009 Heisman winner RB Ingram is a Michigan native but suffered a knee injury in Aug and missed the 1st 2. Overall Bama has my #13 offense and #2 defense. The secondary was quite inexperienced heading into the season but developed nicely with new FS Lester leading the SEC in int. AL ranks #4 in my pass D rankings all’g 173 ypg (53%) with an excellent 11-21 ratio vs a strong slate of opposing QB’s. A big loss is defensive leader SS Barron who will miss the bowl with a torn pectoral muscle. AL is #18 in my ST rankings led by excellent PR Maze and KR Richardson.

There’s only one question in this entire writeup and that’s motivation. While the loss to Auburn will be tough to rebound from, I have to believe that Bama will consider a 10 win season a success. MSU was hoping for a BCS berth but the truth is, the last time they faced a quality D on the road they were destroyed 37-6 to Iowa (trailed 30-0 at half). Roll Tide in this one!

Michigan returns to the postseason for the 1st time S/’07 and their 1st ever matchup with Miss St. This is UM’s 3rd appearance in the Gator Bowl with their last visit in ‘90 and they are 7-3 in bowls vs SEC tms. Miss St makes its 1st bowl appearance S/’07’s Liberty Bowl win over UCF. It is Mullen’s 1st bowl gm as a HC but of course he was part of Urban Meyer’s FL and Utah staffs that went to bowls. This is MSU’s 1st NY’s Day bowl S/’99 and just the 10th meeting with a current B10 tm (Illini in ‘80). The Bulldogs sold out their original allotment of tix even before the destination was announced and asked for more while UM will bring fans for its 1st bowl in 3 yrs.

Rodriguez finally found the perfect QB in Big 10’s OPY Robinson to run his spread. FL native Robinson exploded for UM QB ttl off records in his 1st 2 sts, earning nat’l POW honors vs Conn and ND. Robinson was considered the front runner for the Heisman until his 3 int vs Mich St (2 in EZ) doomed UM and D’s learned how to contain him. He also was banged up as he left several gms due to inj. Robinson still finished the season with a IA QB rush record 1,643 yds and became the first IA QB to run for 1,500 yds and throw for 2,000. UM was held to fewer than 27 pts just twice TY by B10 co-champs MSU and OSU and finished as our #8 off. Attrition caused the Wolves to play 6 true Fr on D (#80). DC Robinson’s controversial 3-3-5 struggled all’g the most yds and pts in UM history including 39 ppg in Big 10 play (7 of 8 scored 34+). By yr’s end UM was starting 2 true Fr, an ex-walk-on and a journeyman Sr in the secondary which finished #95 pass eff D (260, 63%, 18-11). K’s Gibbons and Broekhuizen comb to hit just 4-13 FG (L/37). P Hagerup avg’d an impressive 43.6 as a true and will return after being susp’d vs OSU.

MSU surprised some folks TY with a strong squad playing in the brutal SEC West with an 8-4 record which was quite an accomplishment. Along the way HC Mullen defeated his mentor Meyer in the Swamp and came close vs BCS-bound Ark losing in 2OT. Their #53 offense is a cookie-cutter of Meyer’s UF off with a strong run gm led by mobile QB Relf. Passing QB Russell split time with Relf early in the yr, but after the 2 comb for 5 int vs LSU, the pass gm was scaled back and Relf took most of the snaps the rest of the yr. MSU is #16 in my def rankings. The whole team was rocked by tragedy when starting DE Nick Bell (3 sts) was diagnosed with a brain tumor and eventually died during the tm’s bye wk (Nov 6th). MSU has faced 2 QB’s similar to Robinson TY (Newton and Masoli) and held Auburn to a season low 17 pts (Newton 70 rush yd, 136 pass) and Masoli (12 rush, 261 pass). Rumors of Mullen being a candidate for multiple jobs could be a distraction.

Michigan’s offense obviously runs thru Robinson and despite the extra practice, I don’t expect much improvement from the D. The Bulldogs are potent enough on offense for me to anticipate a high scoring game. Questions on Rich Rod’s future could be a distraction for the Wolverines while Mullen just signed a gaudy 4-year extension worth 10+ million. In a shootout, I will go with the more balanced Bulldogs.

TCU trailed Boise most of the year in the AP polls, but jumped them in the BCS standings after a 47-7 blowout of then-undefeated Utah. TCU breathed a sigh of relief with Nevada’s upset of the Broncos which assured them of becoming the 1st non-AQ to make consecutive BCS bowls and the 1st to play in the Rose Bowl. TCU easily sold its allotment of 20,000 tix while UW has a 35,000 allotment and outnumbered Pac-10 fans in their 3 recent trips to Pasadena. The final BCS standings officially gave UW the B10’s nod as they were co-champs with MSU and OSU all tied at 11-1 (7-1 in B10 play). This is the Badgers 7th trip to Pasadena (1st S/’99) where they are 3-3 winning their L/3. They both faced UNLV in LV as the Frogs won 48-6 on 10/30 (30-12 FD and 530-197 yd edges). UW beat the Rebels 41-21 in the opener (23-10 FD and 475-217 yd edges).

TCU flat out dominated opp’s TY outscoring them 43-11 behind their vaunted D. The closest game for the Frogs was a 5 pt win over underrated SDSt. TCU fell behind 14-0 (its biggest deficit TY) but scored 37 unanswered before all’g SDSt to battle back. The #10 offense has had some slow starts TY as the Frogs had leads of just 14 or less at halftime 5x’s incl 3 gms of single-digit leads. Sr QB Dalton (1st Tm MWC) does not hesitate to make plays with his feet (407 rush) and is #5 NCAA pass eff. TCU placed 8 defenders on the first two All-MWC teams. They lead the NCAA in many categories and have my #3 D. The Frogs rank #2 in my pass eff D led by 1st Tm MWC Johnson and had 3 IR TD’s TY. The ST’s unit (#9) is led by Kerley who is avg an outstanding 12.9 on PR and 28.0 on KR.

Johnny Unitas QB Award Winner Tolzien (#5 NCAA pass eff) leads the NCAA in comp % which is also a new Big 10 record. UW is the only team in B10 history to avg 40+ in conf play and have 3 RB who have at least 13 rush TD. The true stars are the OL (6’5” 321, 3 Sr) led by B10 OL of the Yr/Outland winner LT Carimi. UW ran for less than 150 yds just once (142 vs Iowa). UW (#12 off) also had the NCAA’s fewest pens per gm and was tied for the NCAA lead with just 9 TO’s lost. All-B10 DE Watt leads the DL (avg 6’4” 279) with big plays in big gms. Wisky (#37 D) suffered a huge loss when LY’s B10 Fr of the Yr LB Borland was KO’d (shoulder) and Taylor led the unit in tfl. The secondary (#32 pass eff D all’g 192, 56%, 19-14) cut down on big plays. ST’s (#68) have been the source of big plays TY for both the Badgers and their opponents. After allowing KR’s of 97 and 95 yds vs Arizona St, the Badgers blk’d the gm tying xp in a 1 pt win. A 74 yd PR TD keyed MSU’s win but perhaps the biggest play of the season was Gilreath’s 97 yd KR TD on the opening KO vs OSU.

There have been times when non-AQ teams have reached a BCS bowl without being truly deserving but this is not one of them as this Horned Frogs unit has both an excellent offense and defense. They’ll look forward to the challenge of their 2nd straight BCS game. Wisky comes in as B10 Champs and is now an underdog to a MWC team in the Rose Bowl. They’ll play the disrespect card and it will be a great matchup with their big physical OL and trio of solid RB’s vs the TCU front 7. This should be an outstanding game with the Horned Froga coming out on top in the end.

These programs come in from opposite ends of the spectrum for their 1st ever meeting as this is UConn’s 1st ever BCS Bowl while it is OU’s 8th. The Huskies won a share of the BE Title and OU won their 7th Big 12 Title but has lost their L/5 BCS gms incl being upset in B2B yrs (‘06-’07) in the Fiesta Bowl where they are 1-3. The teams both faced Cincy TY with the Huskies winning 38-17 at home on Nov 27th despite being outgained 399-357 while OU edged the Bearcats 31-29 despite being outgained 461-452.

The Huskies began the season with high hopes coming off their upset of South Carolina in LY’s bowl. Prospects looked bleak after they began the season 3-4 with losses to Temple and Rutgers that had some calling for Edsall to be ousted. UConn went on to upset BE leaders WV, Pitt and Syr in 3 str gms to gain control of the BE and took care of business vs Cincy and USF to tie WV and Pitt for the BE Title and grab the BCS bid. QB Frazer began the season as the starter (1st 4) but was benched for Endres (2 sts). Endres was then dismissed and instead of going back to Frazer, Edsall started Box vs L’ville (4-12, 35 yds) but he left the game with an injury and the job went back to Frazer. No doubt the strength of the offense is 5’9” 193 RB Todman who is #2 in the FBS in rush ypg (143). Overall UC has my #67 off and #51 def. UC boasts some of the best LB’s in the BE led by 2x 1st Tm BE MLB Wilson who leads the BE in tkls. UC is #33 in my pass D rankings all’g 206 ypg (58%) with a 13-19 ratio and leads the BE in int (19). UC is #44 in my ST rankings with a poor net punt avg of 34.8 (2nd last BE) but lead the BE in KR avg (26.5) with 2 TD.

After an “off” 8-5 season, the Sooners proved that they are the Big 12’s most powerful program by winning their L/4 to wind up in Glendale on NY’s Day. OU lost OC Wilson after the championship game but veteran staffers QB cch Heupel/WR cch Norvell should be effective replacements. QB Jones despite some road struggles vs MO and A&M, rebounded to pilot my #9 off. The workhorse is AA RB Murray who led FBS RB’s in rec’s in addition to rushing for 1,121 yds. Biletnikoff finalist and AA WR Broyles finished #2 FBS in rec despite a nagging ankle inj. The Sooners D had its own struggles replacing AA DT McCoy as the top interior lineman but B12’s DL of the Yr DE Beal is #2 all-time in school history in sks. The LB’s suffered a blow when projected MLB Box missed the 1st 4 due to a back inj (burned by mobile QB’s early on) and OU’s 152 rush ypg (4.3) all’d was the most in the Stoops era. OU ranked #8 in pass eff D (212, 55%, 15-17) led by All-B12 S Carter. The ST are #38 with P Way’s 40.5 net finishing #5 NCAA. The K’s continue to be a concern although Stevens hit 10 of his L/11 after winning the job back for the L/4. Broyles’ ankle inj limited his effectiveness on PR but Madu provided a spark on KR.

The only question in this game is the motivation of the Sooners and with the recent bowl disappointments you can be assured Stoops will have his team ready. UConn has been one of the most fortunate teams in football as they’ve been outgained in 6 of their 7 conf gms yet came away with the championship. It’s not hard to go with a team when they have a superior offense, superior D, better ST’s and are hungry for a BCS Bowl win.