Daily Blog • Sunday, January 2nd

 


HERE ARE MY WEEK 17 NFL SELECTIONS:

OAKLAND AT KANSAS CITY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OAK 150
183
22
1.4
#8
KC 193
193
28
0.8
#19
OAK was eliminated from the playoff chase LW but they have a shot at their 1st non-losing season since 2002. KC has secured the AFC West & have as many wins (10) as they did thru 2007-2009 combined. A KC loss drops them to the 4th seed with an IND win and Haley will play his starters here. Rumors of OC Weis leaving for Florida may be a distraction but the Chiefs should get the win here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: KC 28 OAK 20


TENNESSEE AT INDIANAPOLIS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TEN 90
185
18
1.0
#12
IND 122
295
31
1.6
#31
IND still needs a win here to claim the AFC South. They outrushed the #2 run game in the NFL 191 (4.9) to 80 (4.0) on the road without 3 defensive starters (with the return of Addai) LW. TEN didnt have a chance vs KC LW who jumped out to a 24-0 lead halfway thru the 2Q & were outgained by 150 yds for the 5th time TY which is tied with SEA & 1 less than ARZ. Look for IND to go up big to take away the run & force TEN to pass which isn’t their strength in what could be Fisher’s last game as TEN’s HC.
PHIL’S FORECAST: IND 30 TEN 13

 

PITTSBURGH AT CLEVELAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
PIT 138
164
16
1.4
#20
CLE 67
183
11
2.3
#6
PIT needs a win or a BAL loss to secure the AFC North/#2 seed or they could fall down to the #6 seed. They have extra rest to prep after dispatching CAR LW. CLE is playing for Mangini’s job but have not played well since upsetting NE as shutting down Hillis shuts down the offense. CLE gave playoff need BAL a tougher game than expected LW & I think they will give a great effort in what could be Mangini's final game but in the end the Steelers will be too much.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PIT 17 CLE 14

 

MINNESOTA AT DETROIT
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MIN 115
183
15
2.3
#24
DET 122
220
27
1.6
#9
This will be the Vikings 3rd game away from the Metrodome in 13 days wrapping up a season where nothing went right for them. However in Tuesday's win over MIN, QB Webb was very efficient and HC Frazier looks to be in decent position to take the interim tag of his title. DET has 5 wins despite going thru all 3 QB’s TY & broke several bad tendencies TY. They are off a huge come from behind win vs MIA where they were outgained 425-275 & trailing by 10 late in the 4Q. The arrow is pointing way up for the Lions in 2011 and they finish the season with 4 str wins.
PHIL’S FORECAST: DET 20 MIN 14

 

CHICAGO AT GREEN BAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CHI 91
114
17
2.3
#3
GB 111
303
30
1.8
#26
GB is in a win & in situation here after demolishing the Giants LW in every phase of the game. CHI is off a shootout win vs the Jets & have won B2B games in bad weather after getting blasted by NE. Thanks to PHI's loss on Tuesday the Bears have clinched the #2 seed but it is not known how he will treat today's game. I will call for the home team by 3 here as the Packers are playoff bound again.
PHIL’S FORECAST: GB 27 CHI 24

 

BUFFALO AT NY JETS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BUF 102
160
14
2.6
#22
NYJ 188
165
24
1.6
#4
The Jets are in the playoffs for the 2nd straight year thanks to help from other teams. Sanchez (right shoulder) will play here. BUF was hammered by NE LW where they had 2 less giveaways in 1 game than NE had all year. This is a different Bills team than previous years & Gailey will come out strong wanting to ease LW’s loss but with Ryan wanting the starters to play, the Jets close out the reg ssn with a win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NYJ 23 BUF 17

 

TAMPA BAY AT NEW ORLEANS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TB 150
180
22
0.9
#15
NO 138
205
29
0.8
#21
The Saints got a great win on MNF to clinch a playoff spot but need a win and an ATL loss to clinch the division.TB exploited a beat up SEA team coming cross country LW with a 439-174 yd edge but they have yet to beat a team with a winning record TY (0-5). TB’s weak sked has helped them overcome injuries but NO is too savvy & healthy to let this slip away at home.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NO 38 TB 17

 

SAN DIEGO AT DENVER
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SD 132
225
31
2.2
#32
DENVER 99
218
18
2.0
#25
SD’s slow starts on the season & contract squabbles with key players finally caught up to them as they were eliminated the playoffs by CIN LW. SD has squandered one of the most talented rosters in recent memory & have nothing to show for it. Tebow (308 yds 55% 1-1) had a solid day vs the #32 pass defense LW but now faces an embarrassed #1 defense. SD is still playing for a winning record here & are vastly more talented than DEN off their upset win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SD 31 DEN 10

 

 


MIAMI VS NEW ENGLAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MIAMI 94
225
13
2.8
#28
NE 110
265
38
0.0
#11
Not only did NE secure homefield advantage thru the playoffs LW they also secured the 1st pick of the 2nd RD in the 2011 draft via CAR. Belichick follows his own plan when it comes to resting starters depending on each year’s situation. This is a must win for Sparano after blowing a 10 pt 4 Qtr lead with under 5 min left. MIA has lost 3 straight HG’s to foes a combined 14-31 TY & major changes could be coming. I think MIA will keep it close and with several NE players inactive, and nothing to play for the Dolphins get a feel good win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: MIA 23 NE 20

JACKSONVILLE AT HOUSTON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
JAX 113
220
26
1.6
#5
HOU 110
310
27
0.5
#30
Kubiak is on very shaky ground after blowing a 17-0 halftime & 23-10 4Q lead vs a DEN team lead by a rookie QB in his 2nd start. However it is being reported that he may be given another year. Saying HOU’s #32 pass defense is abysmal would be a compliment as they’ve allowed 8.4 ypa, 66% with a 32-12 ratio. JAX can still win the #4 seed by beating HOU & having IND lose to TEN. However with Jones-Drew and Garrard out and HOU is playing for Kubiak’s job in 2011 (with a massive defensive rebuild), the Texans win here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: HOU 28 JAX 24

CINCINNATI AT BALTIMORE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CIN 74
238
19
1.8
#29
BALTIMORE 129
223
28
0.9
#6
Its not unusual to see bad CIN teams do well late in the year as the players start playing for next year & opposing teams take them lightly like SD did LW. BAL has every reason to play hard here as they can secure the #2 seed with a win & a PIT loss. They have also dropped 3 straight SU to CIN with help from the officials. My computer calls for CIN to keep it close here but I think BAL will be very focused & play a clean game and they should coast here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: BAL 34 CIN 13

NY GIANTS AT WASHINGTON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NYG 138
258
24
2.5
#27
WAS 108
255
21
2.4
#14
WAS has won 3 of their 4 OT games TY. Without several defensive starters including their best defensive player (Orakpo 8.5 sacks) they held JAX to 78 yds (3.4) rushing, with 4 sacks, 2 Int & 2 FF’s. The Giants were forced to stay in GB an extra day after another rough loss (500 yds allowed 1st time since 1980) but can get the #6 seed if they win & the Packers lose to CHI. Manning has been a liability with 24 int TY but look for the Giants to play power run ball (141 ypg, 4.7) vs the #25 rush defense.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NYG 27 WAS 10

DALLAS AT PHILADELPHIA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DAL 94
228
26
2.3
#10
PHI 165
305
41
1.6
#17
This will be the Eagles 3rd game in 12 days & their back 7 on defense is starting to get beat up (MLB Bradley/FS Allen IR L2W). DAL has extra rest but there is a strong chance #3 QB McGee gets the start here as Kitna (hip) is unknown but HC Garrett will probably be the HC next year. PHI lost out on the #2 seed LW but you have to believe Reid will not want to limp into the playoffs off B2B losses.
PHIL’S FORECAST: philadelphia 23 dallas 20

CAROLINA AT ATLANTA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CAR 125
95
9
2.0
#16
ATL 139
230
34
1.3
#1
With the loss to NO on MNF, ATL has everything to play for here which will be bad news for Fox in his last game with a QB that has yet to pass for 200 yds TY. CAR did take advantage of an uninterested NO team in LY’s season finale but don't look for history to repeat itself here as the Falcons role and clinch the #1 seed.
PHIL’S FORECAST: atlanta 31 carolina 14

ARIZONA AT SAN FRANCISCO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ARZ 61
170
17
1.1
#7
SF 147
230
25
1.7
#23
SF’s loss LW cost them more than a playoff spot as Singletary was released & DL coach Jim Tomsula takes over here. Alex Smith will get the nod at QB here as they face an ARZ team with extra rest off a big upset win over DAL. ARZ only had 10 FD’s & were outgained by 111 yds vs DAL with 2 Int returns for TD’s sparking the win. Despite the off-the-field issues, I'll call for the 49ers to get the win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SF 24 ARZ 14

ST LOUIS AT SEATTLE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
STL 103
220
25
1.7
#18
SEA 102
225
23
2.1
#2
This game has been flexed to SNF to capitalize on the “fierce competition” in the NFC West TY. STL took advantage of SF’s overwhelmed coaching staff LW & it would have been much worse if Bradford didn’t fumble on the SF 10 up 9-0 in the 1Q on a sack. SEA is starting Whitehurst here as Hasselbeck (back) has already been declared out by Carroll. Its not a suprise that my computer calls for a very even game here with just 4 yds difference & 2 pts but the Rams are better on both sides of the ball and with a young QB are a team on the rise versus a declining Seahawks unit with Whitehurst starting.
PHIL’S FORECAST: STL 23 SEA 20