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This is the 2nd of 3 straight NFC South games for the Titans. TEN is off a big win vs a young CAR team off a bye and ATL off a home loss to NO in OT. ATL has good stat edges here with the #7 and #7 units (+2 TO’s) the last 4 weeks and have held foes to 271 yds and 16 ppg in their L3 games. TEN has the #26 and #27 units (0 TO’s) L4W and have allowed 362 ypg on the road. TEN has been outgained in 3 of 4 games and are taking the #19 pass rush on the road (19 sks). While ATL may only have 16 sks they’ve forced enough pressure for a respectable 12-10 ratio and have held foes to 91 ypg rushing (3.9). QB Ryan (22-4 at home) admitted the offense started off slow due to forcing 1st RD DC Julio Jones into the system resulting in his missing 2 games w/a hamstring injury. ATL has avg’d 149 ypg rushing (4.3) and 27.0 ppg the L4W going back to a power run scheme. TEN has a beat up defense that’s started 7 different LB’s TY and ATL is strong off a loss.

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MIA is at home for the 2nd straight while this is BUF’s 3rd road game in 4 Wks (BUF players don’t count Toronto as a HG) with a road rematch vs the Jets on deck. The Bills have also faced 2 tough defenses with the Jets (#8) and Cowboys (#9) with Fitzpatrick being held to 169 yds (56%) 2-5. BUF has only given up less than 345 yds in 2 games TY (441 ypg in those) while giving up 23 pts or more in 7 games (30.1 in those). Even before KC, the Dolphins were playing hard for Sparano despite losing 4Q leads to DEN & NYG. While MIA’s wins were vs a flat Chiefs team and a depleted Redskins unit with major QB issues they have built some much needed confidence. I’ll call for MIA by a FG here as while they have been playing better I want to see the Bills mental state after their 2 losses.

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While players have changed, the Ravens still run the same basic scheme that Lewis did from 1996-01 as the BAL DC. These are fairly close statistical teams with CIN having the #23 and #5 units (+3 TO’s) vs BAL #15 and #3 units (+1 TO’s) but CIN has faced my easiest sked of the TY so far (BAL #16). LW the Bengals rallied from a 14 pt deficit to tie PIT midway thru the 3Q as Dalton’s 14 TD passes TY are the most by a rookie QB since the NFL merger. However they lost their best CB Leon Hall (Achilles) and 1st RD DC AJ Green (knee) in the 1H. CIN only had 2 drives or more than 27 yds in the game (133 on rest) as Dalton was held to 170 yds (50%). He now faces a BAL team that once again played down to the level of its foe after a big win. Now despite sweeping them, BAL is looking up at PIT in the standings. They now return home where they have outgained foes 365-241 allowing just 77 ypg rush (3.4) with a 32-16 avg score. BAL once again got cute in the play calling LW as they did vs JAX with a 12/53 run to pass mix LW and Rice only had 4 rush att’s in the 1H. Look for BAL to have a much more balanced effort as CIN takes another step back here.

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This is the 4th straight year these teams have squared off. JAX won 24-20 LY as Jones-Drew had 219 yds from scrimmage (8.1) holding CLE’s RB’s to 49 yds (2.2). These teams are pretty even statistically with CLE having the #30 and #6 units (0 TO’s) vs JAX #32 and #4 units (0 TO’s). Both teams are fielding struggling young QB’s who are coping with poor talent in the receiving game. The Jags survived a battle vs the worst team in the AFC thanks to Jones-Drew who rushed for 114 of the Jags 251 total yards. Gabbert has yet to hit 200 yds in his 4 road starts TY avg 116 ypg (49%) with a 4-4 ratio. CLE is off a heartbreaking loss to STL (worst team in the NFC) where they drove to the STL 4 with 2:13 left but a bad snap botched the FG. CLE has yet to score a TD in the 1st or 3rd Qtrs. On 50 possessions at home, CLE has punted 27 times, made 10 FG’s and scored 5 TD’s but I’ll go with the home team by a FG here.

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The Raiders come in with a big situational edge here having beaten SD last Thursday while MIN is off a MNF road game vs their own division arch-rival. OAK had a 13-3 FD and 293-65 yd edges vs a more potent SD offense at the end of the 1H LW. In Palmer’s first 6Q’s he had 448 yds (48%) w/a 3-6 ratio but vs SD he had 299 yds (70%) w/a 2-1 ratio. OAK’s OL has exceeded expectations so far TY as their 11 sacks allowed is 2nd and they have opened the way for a 5.0 ypc. While its unknown if RB McFadden (foot) will return, RB Bush has avg’d 117 ypg (5.3) the L3W. OAK has six 1st RD DC’s and two 2nd RD DC’s in the starting lineup but have given up 132 ypg rush (5.1) and a 16-8 ratio so far TY. This is a concern vs a MIN team with Peterson (99 ypg 4.8) driving the offense. MIN’s pass rush is very dangerous at home (15 of 24 sks) but Palmer is used to BAL/PIT’s relentless pass rush and he should continue to get more comfortable here.

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This is CAR’s 1st road game in 35 days. CAR had a brutal start coming off the bye LW as they went 3&out on 5 of their 1st 6 drives LW with 1 fumble. TEN kept Newton contained for most of the game (55 yds rushing 7.9) as they kept him in the pocket and made him read the defense (212 yds 58% 1 Int 5 sks). CAR has outgained foes in 7 of 9 games TY but the defense has allowed 24 or more in 7 of 9 games (29.6 ppg in those) and are 31st in def ypp. DET’s issue are centered around a slow starting offense (outscored 49-33 TY) and not having RB Best (concussion) to help close out games with the run. Teams have realized that focusing on Megatron limits the offense to short/intermediate passing where they can control the tempo. DET has better overall talent but CAR is close enough statistically (#6 and #20 units (-4 TO’s) vs DET #13 and #7 units (+8 TO’s) to keep this close.

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This is the 3rd meeting in 4 years and the Bucs are 2-0 vs GB with Rodgers at the helm. The Bucs have held Rodgers to 431 total yards (50%) w/a 4-6 ratio. This is a tough situational spot for GB who are off LW’s MNF game vs MIN and have a serious matchup vs DET on Thanksgiving on deck. The Packers have a solid statistical matchup here with the #4 offense vs the Bucs #17 offense. The defensive rankings are a bit misleading here (GB #30 TB #31) as GB has the #16 defense in terms of yds per point (17.9) while the Bucs are #28 (15.5). Rodgers has 8 straight games w/a 111 QBR rating with a 24-3 ratio and now faces the #28 pass defense allowing 263 ypg (62%) with a 15-8 ratio with an 8.16 ypa. TB has struggled to bring heat vs opposing QB’s owning just 13 sacks TY with only 4 coming on the road. GB has scored more pts in the 1Q TY (73) in 8 games than TB in the 1H (67) who have yet to score a TD in the 1Q in 9 games TY. I’ll call for Rodgers to get his first win vs the Bucs here comfortably.

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DAL beat WAS 18-16 on MNF in Wk 3. Romo was working with a skeleton crew at the receiving spot as Austin (hamstring) sat out and WR Bryant (quad) missed most of practice due to injury. DAL had a 256-136 yd edge in the 2H as they controlled the tempo of the game with a 125 (4.8) to 65 (3.0) yd edge on the ground. DAL destroyed the Bills LW as Romo hit for 270 yds (88%) with 3 TD’s and over the L4W 3rd RD DC DeMarco Murray has shredded teams for 150 ypg (8.0). DAL has posted a 421-307 yd edge in the 8 games they’ve won the yardage battle but have been done in by inconsistency and injuries. WAS pulled a surprise LW by switching back to Grossman as Beck’s inability to stretch the field (6.5 ypa with 0 wins L4W) crippled a depleted offense. Grossman moved the ball better at times (9 passes 15 or more yds) but his 2 int’s as the offense was building momentum killed them. WAS has been held to 17 or less in 6 of their L7 games while being outgained 370-273 in the L5 games. DAL has big edges in confidence, health and talent.

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The Cardinals deserve credit for pulling the upset with backup QB Skelton giving them a 2nd straight win. The problem for Arizona is that they must now travel again and for a third time in 4 weeks with another division road game on deck. The 49ers physical D has kept 6 of 9 opponents to 310 yards or less while pressuring the QB with 3+ sacks in 4 of the L/5 gms. Meanwhile on defense the Cardinals also held the Eagles to only 289 yards which was a seasons 2nd best for Arizona making LW’s upset even more improbable. While Kolb may be back under C here either QB will find the going tough against a secondary allowing 4.9 ypa the L/5 games and a front 7 allowing 3.4 ypc in that same span. Despite a Harbaugh vs Harbaugh matchup on Thanksgiving there’s only one way to pick.

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Seahawks are 7-1 vs the Rams. They split LY with SEA winning the playoff elimination game 16-6 with Whitehurst. It is no secret that the Rams success is based on the rush attack led by Jackson who has now topped 100 yards in each of his L/3 games (only 3 times TY). In that span they’ve knocked off NO and CLE and outgained ARZ 400-262 but lost in OT on a PR. The Seahawks are off an upset vs BAL. While STL’s defense gets very little recognition earlier this year they held NO to their ssn low, the NYG to their #2 low and GB to their #3 low offensive total. It’s no coincidence that in the L3W with the rush attack giving the D a break they’ve held NO, ARZ and CLE to an avg of 17 FD’s, 293 ypg and 3.8 ypc (84 ypg rush). The home team is 3-0 in NFC West games this year and that moves to 4-0.

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SD has dropped 4 in a row both and LW were embarrassed by the Raiders getting outgained 293-65 (13-3 FD) at HT. It’s “gut check” time and the road trip could benefit SD in providing less distractions and the Chargers have avg 445 yds and 25 FD’s vs the 3 non-Top 10 D’s away from home. The Bears are off a MN upset at Philly and a huge div “mauling” of DET putting them squarely in the playoff conversations and while I don’t think they’ll over look SD the Chargers are just 4-5. CHI benefitted from +5 in TO’s LW and totaled only 216 yds in beating the Lions. I can explain3 of SD losses. They were on the road to A Top 10 off NE, on the road to top 10 D NYJ and against the NFL’s top team GB but CHI’s #18 & #25 units are not among the leagues elite.