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The Falcons are off their bye and have a huge home game vs NO on deck. ATL has played the #13 sked to this point in the year which accounts for the perception they’ve underachieved TY with the #17 and #20 units (+1 TO’s). Defenses have managed to slow WR White (39 rec 10.9) who has been bothered by a knee injury and 1st RD DC Jones (25 rec 14.3) has missed 2 games w/a hamstring injury. The good news is that they face an IND team giving up 261 ypg (77%) with an 11-0 ratio the L4W with just 1 QB held to under a 95 QBR so far TY. Bill Polian placed the blame firmly on the defense as the DL is missing its 2 best DT’s (Foster, Nevis) on IR. While Mathis/Freeney have 8 sacks combined the Colts have 12 as a team (18th). While Painter is not the big problem (just 4 ints TY) the Colts lack the quick strike capability here to help a defense that can’t get off the field on 3rd Dns (#32, 49.1%). IND is simply overmatched here.

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Brees is only 5-6 vs the Bucs. The Bucs pulled a 26-20 win 3 Wks ago thanks to 4 TO’s which they turned into 10 pts. NO never got its momentum going as on 4 trips into the Bucs red-zone they were held to 2 FG, 1 TD with an int coming at the end of the game. After dominating IND on SNF the Saints were caught off guard by the Rams level of physical play. NO was down 24-0 mid-3Q and earned 140 of their 283 yds in the 4Q when STL went prevent. TB spent the bye healing up. DT McCoy (high ankle) is expected to return but RB Blount whoes only 100 yd game came vs IND (50 ypg 3.9 in other 4 gms) is uncertain. Freeman only has a 7-10 ratio right now as teams are jumping on Winslow’s routes (31 rec 9.1) as the other receiving threats have been disappointing TY. Look for NO to control the pace of the game with an early lead as they take out their embarrassment for LW’s loss on a division rival.

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This is CLE’s 3rd road game in 4 wks with 2 long trips to the West Coast. The Texans have won 3 of the L4 including a 16-6 win in 2008. HOU is the only team in the NFL with a top 10 ranking in total offense, rush off, pass off, total defense, rush def and pass def and they have a top 10 special teams unit also. The Texans have held Brees, Roethlisberger and Flacco to 3-4 ratio with a respectable 7.7 ypa. Schaub (253 ypg 60% 13-5) will easily be the best QB the overranked #1 pass defense has faced. In the 4 full games without Andre Johnson the Texans have logged 22-15 FD and 411-251 edges. LY HOU allowed 377 ypg on defense but over the L2W they have allowed 326 yds total. CLE’s #25 run defense has a tall order with the RB tandem of Foster/Tate who have 1040 rush yds (4.5) so far. CLE may again be without RB’s Hillis (hamstring) and Hardesty (calf) here. McCoy simply lacks the weaponry to mount a serious challenge and look for the Texans to dominate a young and tired team.

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The Jets are 3-0 vs the Bills with a 32-11 avg score. Sanchez DNP in LY’s 2nd game as he was being rested for the playoffs and he’s only avg’d 128 ypg passing (46%) with a 3-5 ratio vs the Bills. However, the Bills have given up 279 ypg rushing (6.2) to the Jets the L2Y and NT Kyle Williams isn’t returning anytime soon. LW’s defensive effort by the Bills came vs a very depleted WAS team. While they had a 390-178 yd edge it boosted them up to 18th in rush defense (120 ypg 4.9) and while they have 13 sks, 9 were vs WAS beat up OL. The Jets play the pass very well (4-11 ratio, 18 sks 10th), but have only had 2 games (DAL/SD) where they held foes to under 100 yds rushing (146 ypg 4.6). BUF RB Jackson is playing at an All-Pro level (153 total ypg from scrimmage 6.8) and Fitzpatrick is at a higher level than Sanchez right now. The Jets are 29th on offense and their 300 ypg avg is 51 yds less than LY. While they are 11th with 24.6 ppg, 4 TD’s have come by defense/spec teams TD’s and they are 28th in rush offense (3.7). Keep in mind that this is when the weather at Ralph Wilson Stadium can become a factor and I'll call for the Bills to continue their impressive season.

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The Chiefs are off LW’s MNF OT win vs the Chargers. After avg 244 ypg and 9 ppg in their 1st 3 games the Chiefs settled in from their rough start avg 362 ypg and 26 ppg the following 3. KC’s sked was much easier in those games (MIN/IND combined 2-14, beat up OAK w/ QB change) but it is worth noting that their 3rd Dn defense improved from 47% to 36% in that span. MIA took advantage of a sluggish Giants team with a 14-3 lead in the 2Q. From that point on they were outFD 15-6 and outgained 295-90 with 5 punts, a FG and an Int the rest of the way. MIA’s #1 CB Vontae Davis has been hurt all year, the safety position is very weak and while they have 16 sks TY (18th) 7 of them came vs Tebow. As a result MIA has the #27 pass defense allowing 270 ypg (62%) with a whopping 14-2 ratio vs an offense with just 9 TD’s so far. Don’t overreact to MIA's performance last week as the struggling offense is avg 14 ppg since the opener and LW’s 17 pts was a high in that span.

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All 3 of the 49ers road games TY have been in the EST where they are 3-0. SF has a big stat edge the L4W with the #9 and #12 units (+4 TO’s) vs the Redskins #28 and #13 units (-6 TO’s). The 49ers have a big edge with their special teams and had the best red-zone defense in the NFL prior to LW. In their 1st 3 games SF avg’d 214 ypg offensively as they learned Harbaugh’s scheme. Since then they’ve avg’d 381 ypg and they’ve only had 1 game TY (DET) with negative TO’s. Aside from injuries since the bye, WAS has struggled with inconsistent QB play over the L4W avg 200 ypg (54%) with a 2-9 ratio. While Shanahan has repeatedly said that Beck is equal to Grossman in talent the problem is that he lacks experience and is still getting up to speed reading defenses. SF may have the #21 pass defense (seven 40 yd pass plays allowed) but are only allowing a 10-9 ratio and healthy 7.0 ypa. I’ll take the healthier road team with momentum vs a injury ravaged WAS team.

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DAL won the L/meeting a 38-17 in 2009. DAL is off LW’s disappointing loss to PHI. DAL has huge stat edges with the #5 and #7 units (-1 TO’s) vs SEA’s #31 and #12 units (-3 TO’s) and the Cowboys also have my #9 spec teams vs SEA’s #24 prior to LW. DAL is perilously thin at RB (just 2 healthy RB’s LW) vs a strong SEA DL with the #10 rush defense. Romo does have one of the deepest receiving units in the NFL vs SEA’s #19 pass defense. Facing McCoy and Dalton the L2W has masked the fact that SEA’s top 2 CB’s (Trufant/Browner) are on IR. DAL has been hurt by injuries on its OL TY but they are 7th with 11 sks allowed (1 every 21 att’s) and 14th with 17 sks earned (1 every 13.1 att’s). SEA has given up 16 sks TY to aggressive pass rush defenses (SF, PIT, NYG) on the road and get another here. DAL won’t overlook SEA with how they beat the Giants. The Cowboys have too much talent here.

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The Raiders are 0-8 off a bye losing by an avg score of 26-12. OAK is expected to start Palmer and his 116 yds (38%) and 3 int effort vs KC was really a preseason game for him. The Raiders have won 4 straight vs the Broncos by a 35-19 avg score. McFadden (right foot) is expected to be ready here and he has avg’d 145 ypg (7.5) rushing in his L3 starts vs the #17 rush defense. OAK will be Tebow’s 1st rematch team as they faced him LY in his 1st career start. He only had 138 yds (50%) passing but tossed a 40 yd TD pass with a 30 yd TD run as the Raiders had a 502-235 yd edge vs a beat up team playing out the string. DEN took a cue from CAR and scrapped their base offense going to a more “college oriented” playbook to take advantage of Tebow’s strengths. It didn’t work very well as Tebow had 172 yds passing (46%) with a 1-1 ratio. He clearly was lost at several points in the game and 204 of DEN’s 312 yds came in the 4Q with the game light years out of reach. OAK has the athleticism to contain Tebow and make him pass the ball which plays to their advantage.

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This is a good matchup for the Bengals who will get RB Benson (susp) back vs a Titans team that is 27th vs the run (129 ypg 4.3) and 28th in sks by (13). CIN has won the yardage battle in 6 of 8 games TY and have done a good job of protecting Dalton allowing 5 sks in their L4 games. TEN has been outgained in 3 of their L4 games with the only edge being vs the lowly Colts. TEN dominated IND LW but that is not a major accomplishment TY. Lost in the final score is the fact that IND had their 2nd most offensive yds so far and that RB Johnson only had 34 yds rushing (2.4) in the game. Prior to SNF, over the L4W TEN has the #29 and #32 units (+1 TO’s) while CIN has the #21 and #7 units (+2 TO’s). The Bengals have held foes to under 300 total yards in 4 games, have the #3 rush defense (85 ypg 3.3) with just 12 offensive TD’s allowed TY. Neither team has a bunch of quality wins under its belt for 2011 and I’ll take the young and aggressive road team here.

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After a brutal 1st half of the season the Rams sked (#2) finally starts to lighten up. The Rams earned their 1st win of the season vs NO as RB Jackson dominated the game with 159 yds rushing (6.4). The defense had its best game of the year with 6 sacks, 10 tfl and 2 ints. While having been outscored by 12, 21 and 27 on the road TY the Rams have only been outgained by 37 ypg allowing 4 of 12 on 3rd Dn conversions (8 of 16 at home). ARZ has been outgained by 155 ypg at home TY giving up 354 ypg passing. They barely beat Newton in his 1st career start, gave up 3 TD’s in the 4Q to lose to the Giants who were off a MNF game followed by a road game to PHI and were manhandled by PIT. Kolb admitted having problems adjusting to a completely different offense with ARZ prior to LW and that it was affecting his footwork. ARZ blew a 24-6 halftime lead vs the Ravens LW and were held to just 56 yds in the 2H. STL will be hungry for more after tasting its 1st win of the year vs an ARZ team.

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This is the 1st meeting since the Giants beat the Patriots 17-14 in SB 42 ending their bid for a perfect season. Over the L4W this is a pretty even matchup statistically with the Giants #6 and #16 units (+1 TO’s) vs the Patriots #12 and #28 units (0 TO’s). The difference is the Giants have played one of the easiest skeds TY while NE has played the #4 sked. After a slow start vs MIA, the Giants avoided an embarrassing loss by outgaining the Dolphins 188-94 in the 2H as the defense held MIA to a FG and 4 punts with an Int to seal the game. They now take to the road vs a NE team that was punched in the mouth by PIT LW. NE was outgained 261-83 at the end of the 1H and didn’t hit 200 yds until 4:30 was left. The problem with NE’s #32 defense is that it gives up yardage in chunks in the air (323 ypg) and can’t get off field on 3rd Dn. If a physical defense such as DAL or PIT can get Brady off rhythm the defense can’t play physical ball on the back end. However, NE is too well coached and have shown time after time that they play some top ball after a loss and do so again.

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In the past 7 seasons this is only the 2nd underdog role at home for the Chargers as they beat IND 23-21 in ‘07. Schedule makers did the Chargers no favors as GB is of a bye while SD is in a div sandwich off a short week with a short week on deck (@KC Mon, OAK Thurs). Let’s match up these 2 premier team and I’ll call it even with GB’s #4 off facing SD’s #4 D. The edge goes to the Chargers with their #8 off vs GB’s #28 D. SD has allowed over 318 yds just ONCE while GB allowed season highs to MIN (435 yds), STL (424 yds), DEN (384 yds) and CAR (26 FD’s). The teams have basically played even schedules (#25 vs #26) yet SD is +94 ypg despite being -5 while GB is +32 ypg while being +9 in TO’s. When comparing their game against elite opponents SD outFD NE on the road (29-28) while GB was outFD at home vs NO (27-24). I’ll call for the last unbeaten to fall and the celebratory toast can take place in Miami.