Daily Blog • Saturday, November 9th

 

Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer's projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 12-5 (71%) and so far this season I am 163-32 (84%).

Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.

#1 LSU vs WKU
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WKU 40
75
0
3.2
-
LSU
195
245
48
1.0
-
It’s obvious that one of these tms is in line for a huge letdown after enormous emotional victories by each LW. LSU won the “Game of the Century” over Bama 9-6 in OT. LSU has faced non-BCS tms the L/4Y’s after playing Bama and when they are off a win over the Tide, are 2-0 the next wk winning by a comb score of 109-10! These tms both played Kentucky TY and while LSU held the Cats to 13 FD’s and 155 ttl yds, WKU all’d just 11 FD’s and 190 ttl yds. WKU has now won 5 str as they also won on a FG on the final play besting FIU 10-9. RB Rainey is #4 FBS rushing avg 130 ypg but will find running difficult as LSU is #2 all’g only 79 rush ypg (2.6). The Hilltoppers goal here is to escape without any serious inj’s as they are very much in the SBC hunt, and LSU is 35-0 all time vs the SBC.
PHIL’S FORECAST: LSU 41 WKU 0

#2 OKLAHOMA ST at TEXAS TECH
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OKLAHOMA ST 247
328
56
1.9
••
TEXAS TECH
169
393
32
3.3
-
The home team is now 8-1 after OSU pulled the upset LY getting their 1st win in Lubbock S/’44. OSU is 10-0 outside of Stillwater the L2Y butTT is 23-3 in home finales. TT has lost 3 straight HG’s for the 1st time S/’91 and they are 1-5 in B12 HG’s. Wildly inconsistent Raiders have fallen behind the B12’s worst (ISU and KU) by a combined 41-0 yet have outFD’d (by 10 per gm) and outgained (by 136 ypg) the B12’s ranked tms (KSU, A&M and OU). Since their historic upset of OU TT has been dominated the L/2 getting outrushed by 339 ypg!! QB Doege (351, 69%, 24-6) and the off have become one dimensional without #1 rusher Stephens (OFY). Raiders are #72 pass eff D (204, 56%, 14-5) as tms have elected to move it on the ground (#118-249, 5.3). Despite 4 TO’s OSU held off the pesky Cats who had 3 shots at the Cowboys 5 with :12 left to tie or take the lead but came up empty. OSU QB Weeden (357, 72%, 26-9) and WR Blackmon (87, 1039, 12 TD) had TO’s which cost the Cowboys pts (61 IR TD, 2 Blackmon fmbl’s which set up a FG and into EZ for a TB). OSU remains #1 FBS in TO margin at +17 and are #12 pass eff D (266, 60%, 10-18). OSU barely keeps pace.
PHIL’S FORECAST: oklahoma st 51 texas tech 44

#3 STANFORD vs #6 OREGON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OREGON 213
175
27
1.8
STANFORD
227
285
36
1.9
-
Premier game of the P12 ssn with potential Nat’l Title implications. Both Oregon and Stanford appeared to be looking ahead LW but pulled away in the 2H as both even ended up with relatively easy wins. Stanford could be without some key off weapons here as TE Ertz has already been ruled out while TE Toilolo and WR Owusu left the OSU gm. The Ducks are on an 8-1 run vs the Cardinal winning the yardage battle in each by 180 ypg although Stanford did win the LTH. LY SU led 21-3 after 1Q thanks in part to 2 UO TO’s (SU was outgained 131-126). After a 7 pt HT edge SU was shutout in the 2H all’g 264 yds w/3 TO’s as UO won 52-31 with a 626-518 yd edge. Scheduling edge for the Cardinal here at home while the Ducks are on the road for the 3rd time in 4 wks and playing the conf underdog away from home role for the 1st time under 3rd yr HC Kelly. Until the P12’s “top dog” is officially knocked off their perch, I’ll go with the Ducks. Quack! Quack!
PHIL’S FORECAST: oregon 38 stanford 37


#4 ALABAMA at MISSISSIPPI ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ALABAMA 230
203
27
1.4
•••
MISSISSIPPI ST
101
163
5
2.1
-
Bama has won and covered 3 str outgaining Miss St by 192 ypg (avg win 31-7). Bama is 12-2 away vs the SEC. The Tide have to be “kicking” themselves after LW’s 9-6 OT loss at home vs #2 LSU. Incl OT, Bama had 7 trips inside LSU35 but came away with just 6 ttl pts as they missed 3 FG’s, had another blk’d (ret’d 26 yds) and on the gm’s biggest play, WR Maze out of the Wildcat at the LSU28 underthrew a sure TD pass to a wide-open TE and while both players had their hands on the ball, the LSU DB was awarded the int at the LSU1. Bama did have a 295-239 yd edge and Heisman hopeful Richardson had another great outing with 169 ttl yds and now leads with 1,078 rush (7.3) and 17 TD. QB McCarron (207 ypg, 66%, 10-4) did throw for 199 yds but had a costly int. Miss St is off a 55-17 win over UT-Martin as they racked up 570 yds and never trailed (all’d 454 yds). HC Mullen has used both Russell (better passer) and Relf (runner) at QB the L2W taking advantage of their strengths but it will tough vs the #1 D all’g just 187 ypg and 7.1 ppg. While this is an obvious bubble burst for Bama, MSU is just 0-8 vs Top 4 tms S/’05 and has failed to score a TD in 5 of those gms. Bama only fell to #3 in the BCS rankings and still have national title aspirations and get a nice road win here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ALABAMA 30 MISSISSIPPI ST 6

#5 BOISE ST vs TCU
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TCU 162
115
24
2.9
-
BOISE ST
138
290
35
2.1
The 3 bowl meetings have been decided 11 ttl pts. Boise St has the sked edge as they are off a bye and trip to LV while TCU is on the 2nd of B2B long trips (WY LW). This was orig scheduled at TCU but the MW moved it here after TCU left the conf. LW Boise St was caught looking ahead and only led 21-14 at HT (LV 198-161 yd edge) before pulling away in the 2H, 48-21, which made Moore the NCAA’s career leader for QB wins. Top rusher Martin (756, 5.1, 9) left early 2Q, but Harper ran for 109 (8.4) in relief. TCU, while improved over earlier TY, ranks #65 pass eff D (225 ypg, 57%, 18-7). Moore avg 279 ypg (74%) with a 29-5 ratio (#4 FBS pass eff). LW TCU finished with 28-15 FD and 617-353 yd edges but all’d WY to hang around as the Frogs committed 5 TO’s incl 3 in the redzone in a 31-20 win. QB Pachall (216 ypg, 69%, 19-5 ratio) hit 17-27-227. TCU did rush for 390 yds led by their 3-headed monster of James (181), Wesley (120, 2 TD) and Tucker (90, 2 TD) who comb for 84% of TCU’s rush yds TY. A surprising stat is that Kellen Moore has never thrown a TD pass vs TCU, but that ends here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: boise st 37 tcu 21



#8 ARKANSAS vs TENNESSEE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TENNESSEE 92
203
17
2.0
-
ARKANSAS
144
303
34
1.7
••
LTH (‘06) both tms came in ranked but UT trailed 14-0 and 31-7 prior to a late garbage TD drive w/:30 left (31-14). UT is 6-2 SU in the series and is off MT while the Hogs just faced #9 SC. Tenn frosh QB Worley’s 2nd start was much smoother than his 1st. After throwing for just 105 yds (38%, 0-2 ratio) in a loss to SC, Worley nearly had that doubled at HT LW and finished with 291 yds (72%, 1-0) as Tenn 24-0 win. With Ark’s 44-28 win over SC LW and LSU’s win over Bama, the Hogs now have a shot at a BCS gm and the SEC West Title if they win out. QB Wilson is avg 292 ypg (62%) with a 15-4 ratio. Tenn has the def edge (#23-37) but Ark has the off (#14-68) and ST edge (#21-51) and it’s tough to see a true frosh QB making his 1st road start have much success vs an Arkansas tm playing with renewed confidence after LW's results.
PHIL’S FORECAST: arkansas 38 tennessee 17


#9 CLEMSON vs WAKE FOREST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WAKE FOREST 137
188
26
2.5
-
CLEMSON
204
328
45
1.8
CU has won 5 str at home winning their L/2 here by 35 ppg. CU is now off a late ssn bye while WF is traveling for the 3rd time in 4W. The Tigers are off a disappointing loss to GT, 31-17, knocking them out of the Nat’l Title talk. CU QB Boyd is #17 FBS pass eff avg 295 ypg (61%) with a 25-5 ratio. RB Ellington DNP LY in this gm and missed 2W ago (inj, CS) while Fr bkps rushed for 93 yds (3.9) and had 2 costly fmbl’s. LW WF gave ND all it could handle and actually led 17-10 at HT but was shutout in the 2H losing 24-17. The Deacs fmbl’d inside the ND10 and missed a 42 yd FG with 5:24 left on their final drive. QB Price is avg 239 ypg (62%) with a 15-6 ratio and ACC leading WR Givens has 985 (17.0). With RB Harris battling inj L/4, Grobe said, “If I could put a run gm together (105 ypg, 3.0) I will have died and gone to heaven.” Heaven will have to wait another week coach Grobe as Clemson rolls in this one.
PHIL’S FORECAST: clemson 47 wake forest 23

#10 VIRGINIA TECH at GEORGIA TECH
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
VIRGINIA TECH 183
160
16
1.8
GEORGIA TECH
267
105
21
2.4
-
Just the 9th meeting between these schools (1st gm in ‘90). GT is 2-5 in their ACC matchups. GT is off a stunning 31-17 win over Clemson holding the Tigers to ssn low 17 pts and 2nd lowest off output 396 yds. GT offense had a steady decline to a ssn low 211 vs UM but rushed for a ssn high 383 yds (5.7) as the triple option returned to it’s early form. . The defense has played well all’g just 20 ppg since NCSt gm and has all’d just 20 pts in the last 6Q and all’d just 122 rush UM and 95 to Clem. VT is off a 14-10 win over Duke and now have 3 wins by 7 or less which is not where they thought they’d be. QB Thomas avg 215 ypg (61%) 11-7 and RB Wilson has been rarely used in 1st half last 3 gms but still has managed 100+ yds LEADS FBS with 1185 YD (6.3). GT HC Johson recruited Wilson heavily. VT has been bitten by inj bug on losing 3 top defenders but despite Duke came away with just 3 pts in 5 tries inside the RZ. ST’s have uncharacteristically been a problem for Beamer incl LW losing kicker with quad injury (FR missed 1st att 29 yd’r. GT has the offense edge #27-38, VT the defense edge #11-34. GT is at Duke while VT has another Thurs night game at home vs NC on deck. LTH GT snapped a 17 gm winless streak at home vs Top 5 (Dodd beat Bear Bryant 1962) defeating #4 VT 28-23 (+3’), GT outgained 360-334 TOP 38 min. The Yellow Jackets, 5-0 at home, are attempting to stay unbeaten in Bobby Dodd Stadium for the first time since 1999. Under GT Johnson is 6-0 at home vs Top 25. Winner has gone to ACC Title game the L6Y. LY on Thurs night GT led 14-0 and lost QB Nesbitt in the 2Q as Washington made his debut. They were tied at 21 but GT all’d a 90yd KRTD by Wilson w/ 2:23 left and were int’d in the EZ from the VT16 w/ :08 left. VT does have the edge of a bye week to prepare for the option as Bud Foster gets his 4th look at it (have all’d 311 ypg rush, 5.7 ypc!).
PHIL’S FORECAST: VIRGINIA TECH 24 GEORGIA TECH 20


#11 HOUSTON at TULANE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
HOUSTON 154
415
62
1.6
•••
TULANE
166
215
20
2.9
-

UH is 9-0 (best start in school history) and LW’s hammering of UAB was the Cougars most complete AG TY but now are on a short wk with West Div foe SMU on deck (also home finale) and the West title gm at Tulsa. Tulane lost again LW but did run into a desperate SMU squad off B2B loses. Interim HC Mark Hutson is 0-3 being outscored 37-18 and outgained 401-332. After opening 2-1 the Green Wave have dropped 7 str. UH has a large edge on off (#4-109) and ST (#41-109). UH is better at home but Sumlin has addressed the road struggles also talking about perfection coming at a price and look to spoil the Tulane home finale while Wave just playing out the season. Houston rolls in this one!

PHIL’S FORECAST: Houston 62 tulane 20


#12 PENN ST vs #19 NEBRASKA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NEBRASKA 170
120
16
2.5
••
PENN ST
170
165
16
2.5
-
Naturally will be a very emotional stadium with all that has happened during the last week. PSU is fresh off a bye while the Huskers make their first trip here S/’02 when the unranked Lions thrashed #8 NU, 40-7. The Rodney Dangerfield 8-1 Lions only need to win 2 of their L/3 to earn the trip to the 1st ever B10 Champ gm but there are no gimmes left with trips to Columbus (where PSU is 1-8) and Madison left. Suspect PSU off’s 251 yds is still the most Bama’s #1 D has all’d in ‘11 with Redd’s 5 straight 100 yd gms (1006, 5.2) the 1st in the program S/’97. QB McGloin (133, 56%, 7-3) hasn’t exactly been Aaron Rodgers as the Lions are #106 pass eff. The Lions have been tough up front all 112 rush ypg (3.1) with 7 TD’s all’d in 6 HG’s (3 to Bama). The Huskers lost to an unranked tm at home for the 5th straight ssn as NW beat NU. Despite losing QB Persa in the 1H to a shoulder inj the Cats never trailed as they had a 207-122 rush yd edge. Neb did fmbl inside the NW5 and at the NW20 but the Blackshirts also got a sk/fmbl at the NU36, flipped the field with a 55 yd IR and a missed 45 yd FG. Burkhead (951, 5.1) and Martinez (172, 59%, 10-7, 712 rush) were both held in check by the Cats D. Blackshirts are thin up front allowing 183 rush ypg (4.3) in B10 play. The Lions' are able to tune out the distractions, rally together and get the win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: penn st 24 nebraska 17

#13 MICHIGAN ST at IOWA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MICHIGAN ST 105
230
21
2.0
-
IOWA
120
200
21
1.7
••
LY also at home Iowa beat #5 MSU 37-6 (led 31-0 at HT). The L3Y MSU’s rush attack has been held to 69 ypg (2.4) but UI’s DL featured 3 NFL DC while that may not be the case TY (181 rush ypg, 4.3 in B10 play). MSU struggled to get past the scrappy Gophers 31-24 as they trailed 24-21 going into the 4Q and were outgained 415-402 as they relied on an int at the MSU23 with :14 left to seal the deal. LY’s #1 rusher Baker (492, 4.2) lost another fmbl and was benched for Bell (528, 5.2). MSU is avg just 8.7 ppg and 289 ypg on the road TY. MSU allows 104 rush ypg (2.9). Iowa led 24-9 early 4Q but had to hang on to pull the upset of Mich. UM had a long TD run called back, dropped a TD pass and had 1 ruled OOB on their final drive as they threw inc on 4 passes at the UI3 with no time left. Coker (1101, 5.2) is the B10’s #1 rusher. UI has home, series and ST (#44-81) edges to pull yet another stunner and take the Leaders lead.
PHIL’S FORECAST: iowa 21 michigan st 20


#14 GEORIGA vs AUBURN
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
AUBURN 117
123
17
2.9
••••
GEORGIA
189
273
35
1.6
-
Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry. LY snapped a 4 gm series win streak by UGA as they jumped out to a 21-7 lead but was outscored 42-10 the L/3Q. LTH GA won 31-24. LY’s gm ended in a fight after NT Fairley speared QB Murray and there could still be some bad blood here. Both tms should have their “A” gms as UGA did have just NMSt and hosts UK next while Aub is off a bye and hosts Samford. LW the Bulldogs exploded for 42 2Q pts (most in a single qtr by any team TY) as they rolled to a 63-16 win over NMSt with a 627-402 yd edge (most pts S/’94 and most yds S/’93). Former walk-on WR Harton ran for 98 yds (6.5) replacing the 3 susp’d RB’s and Murray threw for a career-high 5 TD’s all in the 2Q and is now avg 229 (60%) with a 23-8 ratio. Aub will stick with QB Moseley who is avg 153 ypg (69%, 4-1) in his 2 sts. WR Blake despite missing 3 gms still leads with 24 rec (16.8) and should finally be 100% here while RB Dyer has 989 (5.3). UGA has the off (#15-44) and def (#8-44) edges and should get back their 3 susp’d RB’s incl super frosh Crowell. After their 0-2 start UGA has won 7 str and with SC’s loss to Ark LW, they now control their own destiny in the SEC East and will take one more step towards Atlanta with a win here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: GEORGIA 34 AUBURN 17


#15 SOUTH CAROLINA vs FLORIDA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
FLORIDA 87
138
15
3.3
••••
SOUTH CAROLINA
139
208
26
2.4
-
UF has won 17 of 19 but SC pulled the upset in the Swamp LY holding UF to 67 yds thru 3Q (395-226 gm) claiming the SEC East. SC lost control of their SEC East destiny LW in the 44-28 loss to Ark (outgained 435-207). QB Shaw has struggled since the UK gm and has avg just 123 ypg (65%, 2-4 ratio in his L/3 starts) and left the gm late in the 4Q w/an apparent concussion and DNR but should play here. SC also clearly missed the services of RB Lattimore (OFY) rushing for only 79 yds (2.4) their lowest total of the ssn vs an Ark D that was all’g 249 rush ypg (5.3) in its L/5! UF finally got its ground gm going (46 ypg L/4) in the 26-21 win over Vandy. Despite Rainey being out the Gators had 197 rush yd (4.3) as Demps ran for a career-high 158 (6.9) as they ran several plays out of the Pistol. QB Brantley got the start again despite not being 100% and is avg 194 ypg (59%, 6-3) but left the gm in the 4Q with an arm inj but should start here. UF has a huge ST’s edge (#3-83) but with so many key players banged up I'll call for the Gamecocks by 1.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SOUTH CAROLINA 17 FLORIDA 16

#16 WISCONSIN at MINNESOTA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WISCONSIN 271
240
52
0.8
-
MINNESOTA
154
170
20
2.2
•••

UW has won 7 str in this series and LY UW only led 14-9 at HT but the Badgers scored TD’s on their 1st 4 2H poss. After B2B heartbreaking last minute losses to MSU and OSU UW mauled PU, 62-17 with 30-14 FD and 605-284 yd edges. #1 FBS pass eff QB Wilson (249, 72%, 21-3) and FBS’s #1 scorer Ball (1076, 6.6, 24 TD) got back on track. Thin Badgers D still all’g an uncharacteristic 176 rush ypg (4.2) in conf play. Minny stuck with MSU actually outFD (22-19) and outgaining (415-402) the Legends leader before throwing an int at the MSU23 to end all hopes. QB Gray may’ve turned the corner avg 244 ypg (61%) with a 4-2 ratio and 133 rush yds the L/2. UM is still being overwhelmed at the LOS all’g 260 rush ypg (5.9) in B10 play. This is UW’s 3rd B10 night AG but this one won’t come down to the final play.

PHIL’S FORECAST: WISCONSIN 52 MINNEOSTA 17

#17 KANSAS ST vs TEXAS A&M
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TEXAS A&M 138
320
32
2.8
-
KANSAS ST
197
160
33
0.8
KSU has won 2 str and in their last game in ‘09 KSU was off a 66-14 loss to TT and came away with a shocking 62-14 win which they led 59-0! TY A&M is on their 2nd str AG and 3rd in 4W after LW’s 41-25 loss at OU in which they were done in by mistakes as they missed FG’s from 38 and 41, had a 14 yd P which set up a 31 yd TD pass, an int which set up a 28 yd TD drive and an int which set up a 39 yd TD pass. Ags’ #1 rusher Michael (899, 6.0) and WR Swope (874, 14.6) were KO’d in the 4Q and Michael is OFY. A&M allows 110 rush ypg (3.0). KSU took advantage of 4 TO’s and traded big play blows with #3 OSU but couldn’t cash it in the EZ on 3 pass plays from the OSU5 with :12 left in a 52-45 loss. Tough guy Klein leads FBS QB’s in rushing (906, 4.4) with more att on the ground than thru the air (136, 58%, 9-4). KSU is #96 pass eff D (303, 66%, 19-14). The Cats are +11 in TO margin while the Ags are -10. This one will be very close but A&M is desperate for a win and has more talent.
PHIL’S FORECAST: texas a&M 35 KANSAS ST 34


#18 USC vs WASHINGTON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WASHINGTON 117
223
25
2.8
•••
USC
199
323
40
2.0
-
iEx-USC cch Sarkisian has pulled upsets in his 1st 2Y here (both decided on final play). UW was done in LW by an offense that was sk’d 6x’s, turned the ball over 3x’s (led to 14 Oreg pts) and was held to under 400 yds for just the 2nd time TY. A week after a heartbreaking 3OT loss to Stanford, USC won on a rare Fri night game vs Colo as QB Barkley threw a school rec’d 6 TD’s (3rd time TY with at least 5 TD passes) en route to a 42-17 win. LY USC missed a FG that would have put them up 5 and then all’d UW to get a 32 yd FG on the last play and lost 32-31 in a gm that featured 8 lead changes. USC hasn’t lost 3 consec to UW since the early ‘90’s and it is hard for me to see that happening here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: usc 42 washingon 28


#21 TEXAS at MISSOURI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TEXAS 227
163
28
2.3
••
MISSOURI
189
238
27
2.4
-
UT has won 6 str incl the L/3 in dominating fashion outgaining the Tigers by 242 ypg. Despite playing without #1 rusher Brown (toe) and #1 rec Shipley (knee), UT rolled TT, taking a 31-6 HT lead and physically dominated the Raiders with a 439-30 rush yd edge. QB Ash threw just 3 1H passes vs TT and is avg 134 (60%) with a 3-5 ratio in B12 play. Burly Fr Bergeron had 87 yd in the 1st 6 gms but has had 100 yd in B2B gms (327, 7.8). UT is #9 FBS rush D (95, 3.5). Tigers led Baylor 14-13 at HT but couldn’t contain the Bears in the 2H who had a school rec’d 697 yds in a 42-39 loss. MO scored 25 4Q pts but BU rec’d an onside K with 1:59 and finished the gm at the Tiger 8. QB Franklin (244, 63%, 16-7, 599 rush) and B12’s #1 rusher Josey (1149, 8.6) have been a big play duo. UT has the D (#4-40) and ST (#12-45) edges and knows how to win in Columbia.
PHIL’S FORECAST: texas 34 missouri 24


#22 MICHIGAN at ILLINOIS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MICHIGAN 190
148
23
2.4
ILLINOIS
186
198
17
2.7
LY’s record setting 67-65 3OT UM win was the highest scoring gm in B10 hist. In the L/3Y IL has topped 500 yds and the LTH pulled the 38-13 upset although UM is 9-1 in Champaign. IL is off a much needed bye after losing 3 str after a 6-0 start (ranked #15). The off has produced only 1 TD prior to the 4Q and just 26 overall pts (worst 3 gm stretch S/’05). QB Scheelhaase (187, 64%, 12-5, 501 rush) hasn’t hit the B10’s #1 rec Jenkins (1030, 15.1) with a TD pass in the L/3. IL D has all’d 103 rush ypg (2.7) with a B10 best 31 sks incl DE Mercilus’ 11.5 (#1 FBS) and you can bet DC Koenning had this one circled after LY. IL has my #120 ST with the P being tkl’d the L/2 and the Illini botching 2 FG’s in a 10-7 loss to PSU including the usually reliable K Dimke (7-8) missing the gm tying 42 yd FG att on the last play. LW Iowa upset the Wolves 24-16. The Hawks dodged several bullets on UM’s last drive incl having an 82 yd TD run called back as it was ruled that the RB’s elbow was down, a 1 handed TD catch was ruled OOB and a pass was dropped in the EZ as the Wolves were SOD from the Iowa3. After running for 100+ in 4 of the 1st 5, D-Rob’s carries have been curtailed and he’s thrown the most int in the B10 (180, 53%, 13-12, 880 rush, 6.0). UM has all’d just 123 rush ypg (4.0) in B10 play. Zook’s tm thrives when there are no expectations and the Illini pull the home upset.
PHIL’S FORECAST: illinois 28 michigan 21


#23 CINCINNATI vs WEST VIRGINIA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WEST VIRGINIA 93
370
34
2.9
-
CINCINNATI
192
290
43
2.5
•••
This marks the Bearcats’ 2nd game at Paul Brown Stadium TY (25-16 win over Louisville). UC is now fully in the BE’s driver’s seat after escaping with a win LW at Pitt, a gm in which they were outgained 397-366 and needed a missed FG at the end of regulation to avoid OT. WV has now dropped 2 of their L/3 in conf play incl a home defeat vs L’ville LW, a gm in which they actually outgained UL 533-351 as a blk’d FG ret’d by UL for a TD early 4Q was the momentum changer. WV won 37-10 LY as Cincy had a ssn low 15 FD’s and all’d a ssn high 29 FD’s. Sked edge to Cincy here as they had a bye 2 wks ago and this is WV’s 3rd road gm in 4W.
PHIL’S FORECAST: cincinnati 45 west virginia 38


#25 SOUTHERN MISS vs UCF
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
UCF 143
180
16
1.9
-
SOUTHERN MISS
202
225
34
1.9
•••
SM has won 3 str and 5 of 6. LY #25 UCF after they jumped out to a 14-0 lead, SM scored the next 31. UCF is off a rare home loss (led at HT and in 4Q) vs Tulsa. QB Godfrey has played well the L2W (569 ttl yds, 64% of off) but losses have mounted due to TO’s and not making plays. SM has reeled off 7 str wins with the avg MOV by 24 ppg. LW vs EC they were outgained by 121 yds and scored 4 non-off TD’s. SM has the off (#31-61) and ST (#39-101) edges. Red-hot SM most likely locks up the CUSA East with a win here (UAB and Mem on deck). HC Fedora is 9-3 during the L/4 gms of the reg ssn here and has stressed winning at “The Rock” and SM is on a 16-2 run incl 2-0 in CUSA play TY winning each by 24 pts with a 554-280 yd edge.
PHIL’S FORECAST: southern miss 30 ucf 13
Upsets of the Week:
Pittsburgh over Louisville
Mississippi over La Tech
UCLA over Utah