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Steelers fans travel very well to CIN and they have been rewarded with an 8-1 mark. PIT is coming off LW’s SNF loss to BAL . Over the L4W PIT has the #3 and #3 units (-1 TO) vs the Bengals with the #26 and #9 units. CIN has played 4 games with misleading finals (CLE, JAX, IND, SEA) against teams that are 28th or lower in my power ratings. They have been outgained in 2 of those matchups and by 30 ypg overall. The Bills are the only top 10 offense the Bengals have faced TY and that was at home after they rallied from a historic deficit. LY the Steelers went to the SB with a defense allowing 277 ypg and 14.5 ppg. This is a transition season on the DL for a defense allowing 271 ypg and 17.4 ppg. Dalton has only faced 1 defense in the top 10 in sacks and he produced 157 yds (53%) with 3 int’s vs SF. I'll go with the Steelers to get a nice bounce back win here.

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KC has a great edge at home for the 3rd straight while the Broncos are in their 3rd road game in 4 Wks. KC comes in with the #12 and #20 units (+4 TO) vs the Broncos #22 and #21 units (+1 TO) over the L4W. 1st & 2nd year QB’s are 6-19 at Arrowhead and going into LW’s game DEN was 1 of 6 teams with 4 OL that have been tagged with at least 4 penalties. Overall the OL has been flagged 22 times TY which is odd as they’ve started every game together so far. DEN has been outgained in 6 of 8 games TY. DEN’s #23 pass defense much worse than its ranking with the 8.27 ypa (#30), allowing 66% (#31) with a whopping 17-6 ratio. KC is a very healthy team right now as aside from FS Berry/RB Charles no other starter has missed a game TY. I’ll call for the Chiefs by a FG as they are still inconsistent and DEN’s offense is too unpredictable with Tebow at the helm right now.

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While the Jags defense has improved by 65 ypg and 5.8 ppg the offense is 98 ypg and 9.8 ppg worse than 2010’s #15 offense. Over the L4W JAX has the #32 and #4 units (0 TO) but they’ve played 4 straight top 5 defenses and 3 straight teams in my power ratings top 10. Gabbert’s only avg’d 130 yds (44%) with a 3-2 ratio in the L4W and the Jags WR’s are so bad they claimed Brian Robiskie after CLE released him. IND has only one the yardage battle in 1 game TY (TEN) and have given up 350 or more yards 6 times TY. The Colts defense snared their 1st TO in 23 Qtrs vs ATL and the #24 pass defense 71% completion rate is dead last in the NFL with an 18-4 ratio on the year. Neither team is attractive but I’ll call for the Colts to remain winless.

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This is a big game for Chan Gailey as he was the Cowboys HC in 1998-99. On the surface this looks to be a big offensive show with DAL #7 offense taking on the Bills #12 offense. DAL has only been held to under 350 yds once TY (PHI) but they have struggled to convert into points as they owned the #30 red-zone offense prior to SEA. DAL has logged a 424-312 yd edge at home but the only game they’ve dominated was vs STL. LW they lost WR Austin (hamstring) again and defenses are taking away Romo’s security blanket in Witten (44 rec 12.5). It wasn’t a big surprise the Bills struggled against the Jets stellar secondary LW and were outgained 191-73 in the 1H. Fitzpatrick had an awful 1H with 24 yds passing on just 4 completions with 2 int’s. RB Jackson has rushed for 100 yds in 7 of 8 games TY but the Cowboys aren’t pushovers at 102 ypg (4.2). I’ll take the Cowboys here as the Bills face Rob Ryan who held the Bills to 13 pts with a lesser defense LY with CLE.

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While the Texans are 3 games over .500 for the 1st time in franchise history this is a potential letdown for the team as they are off 2 home games with a bye week on deck. HOU has solid stat edges here with the #8 and #2 units (+5 TO) over the L4W vs the Bucs with the #20 and #32 units (+1 TO). HOU has won the yardage battle in 8 of 9 games TY while TB has been outgained in 8 of 9 games. HOU has big edges with Schaub (13-6 ratio) over Freeman (8-10 ratio), the tandem of Foster/Tate (1279 yds 4.9 combined) vs Blount (67 ypg 4.4) who has been pressed into a 3 Dn RB role due to injuries. TB will not have DT McCoy (right biceps) for a defense that is 31st in sacks (12, 1 every 23 att’s) vs an OL that has given up 15 sacks. The Bucs do have talent but lack the experience or home crowd support against a top 6 team in the Texans this year.

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Both teams will be well rested as both have had a combo of 2 home games and a bye in the last month. CAR has won the yardage battle in 7 of their 8 games TY but bad special teams (#32) has kept them from more wins. They have outgained NDIV foes 429-350 TY as the Panthers have successfully converted the offense to Newton’s strengths. CAR has the #7 and #23 units (-1 TO) vs the Titans #29 and #31 units (0 TO) in the L4W. TEN has problems with the #31 run game (70 ypg 3.1) which is a big break for the Panthers who are allowing 133 ypg (4.6) so far. TEN blew a 17-7 lead vs CIN LW and were outFD 12-6 and outgained 180-95 with 5 straight punts followed by a fumble. I’ll call for CAR by a TD as I want to see how the young team preps after coming back from the bye week.

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After giving away games vs DEN and NYG in the 4Q, the Dolphins finally got into the win column LW. MIA took advantage of a tired Chiefs team off an MNF OT game as Moore had a solid game with 244 yds (74%) with 3 TD’s. The Dolphins besieged defense held Cassel to 253 yds (51%) and their #1 RB Battle to 40 yds (2.9). MIA has been playing tough since their bye while the Redskins have been reeling due to injuries and bad QB play. WAS is off a misleading final vs SF as they were down 19-3 halfway thru the 4Q before SF relaxed. Beck stats aren’t that bad (247 ypg 62% 2-4 in 3 starts) but he’s not getting a lot out of the run game (53 ypg 3.3 L4W). While WAS’s defense has struggled lately they are a capable stop unit that can pressure the QB (#2 25 sks). MIA is happy to have their 1st win of the season and I’ll call for them by 4 vs a WAS team angry over where their season went.

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NO has the stat edge over the L4W with the #2 and #14 units (-3 TO) vs the Falcons #21 and #7 units (+2 TO). ATL has been under whelming in 2011. Only 1-3 TY vs foes with a .500 or better record the Falcons have only dominated CAR and IND TY. They have been outgained in all 3 home games by a 414-298 yd margin. Minus the CAR/IND games Ryan has avg’d a mediocre 233 ypg (61%) with an 8-8 ratio (77.5 QBR). NO has had it’s share of problems on the road. Still they’ve tallied a 432-359 yd edge on the road and their struggles have largely been from Brees forcing things with the ball avg 226 ypg (55%) with a 9-2 ratio due the OL issues. NO gets the edge as they have more experience in big games going toe to toe vs GB, beating CHI and HOU to start the season.

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The Lions had an excellent situational edge in the 1st meeting using an amped up crowd in their 1st MNF home game in 10 years to keep the Bears off kilter. Despite being under constant pressure, Cutler had a solid game with 237 yds (74%) with a TD. DET was unable to stop Forte who had 116 yds rushing (5.3) though. DET comes in off the bye after a “get right” win vs the Broncos while the Bears are off LW’s MNF win vs the Eagles. After gaining just 54 ypg (3.2) rushing to start the season the Bears have avg’d 161 ypg (5.5) which has spurred 3 victories in their 4 games prior to MNF. On the road the Lions are 4-0. Their wins have been vs a TB team with the youngest DL, vs MIN (outgained 213-50 at half) and vs DAL who they needed 2 IR TD’s (outgained 434-303). Their only convincing road win has been against the Broncos who were adjusting to a non-traditional QB. I’ll call for the Bears by a FG in a key divisional game.

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Even though this is an AFC/NFC game there is a key coaching tie here. Shurmur was key in Bradford’s growth LY as he was the Rams OC. STL welcomed back Bradford LW vs ARZ who was better than expected (255 yds 64% 1 int) he meshed with Lloyd (5 rec 80 yds) which the offense badly needed. STL outgained ARZ 383-262 but lost on a missed FG sending it to OT with a 99 yd PR costing them the game. The Browns are in a very sad state offensively right now. LW they were forced to field 2 RB’s that were on practice squads 2 weeks ago with Hillis (hamstring) and Hardesty (calf) out. Their best WR Massaquoi sustained his 3rd concussion of the season LW and his status is in serious doubt. CLE was fielding a converted return specialist (Cribbs 22 rec 13.5 ypc) and a converted rookie RB (Little 31 rec 9.5) against the Texans resulting in just 172 yds and 12 pts. Shurmur is looking badly outmatched in terms of game planning as CLE’s been outscored 90-15 in the 1st/3rd Qtrs combined. I’ll side with an improving road team that’s getting healthier as the Browns haven’t even hit the tough part of their schedule yet.

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PHI blasted ARZ 48-20 in their last meeting in 2008. This is expected to be the return of Kolb to PHI but he sat out LW’s game with a foot injury. ARZ is 0-11 on the road losing by an avg score of 29-14. They have been outgained 363-287 TY with a staggering -12 TO. They’ve only won the yardage battle in 2 games TY and have only had 250 yds passing once since the opener vs CAR. The defense allowed 30 or more pts in 4 straight games before facing the 1 win Rams at home LW. Now they have to go cross country to face a PHI team that is much better than their record. The Eagles have won the yardage battle in every game TY by an avg of 119 ypg but a -10 mark in their 1st 5 games has hurt them. PHI’s #7 sack defense could have a field day as ARZ is #29 in sacks allowed and will be putting a limited Kolb or inexperienced Skelton on the field here. RB Wells (knee) has been dinged up all year and PHI has allowed 127 yds rushing the L2 before CHI. PHI has more than enough speed to handle ARZ’s defense and look for Vick to have a huge day.

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BAL is off SNF vs PIT with CIN & a Thanksgiving Harbaugh vs Harbaugh matchup on deck. The Ravens continue to rely on their D & while the 294 ypg they are allowing on the road is still above avg the Flacco led offense has only gained 229 yds and 146 yds in losses at TEN and JAX. SEA returns home after a 23-13 loss to DAL & Despite Jackson throwing 3 int’s in his 1st start since the NYG upset (inj’d) the 381 yds & 18-18 FD log were a positive sign. SEA plays well at home under the fiery HC Carroll & his enthusiasm has brought back the 12th man edge. This season in the Seahawks 3 HGs they pulled the upset over ARZ (13-10) stood toe to toe vs ATL (28-30) & outgained CIN (411-252). The Ravens have struggled this year when they’ve rushed for 107 yards or less & SEA’s #13 rush D is allowing only 101 ypg at home & an outstanding 3.3 ypc. I think this game is closer than what many expect but in the end the Ravens get the win.

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The 49ers are now the hunted with their 7-1 record. This adds pressure to a team that hasn’t produced a winning record since 2002 now playing a franchise that hasn’t had a losing season since 2004 with a Super Bowl Title since. NYG have played well as an underdog this season upsetting Philly 29-16 and LW upsetting NE 24-20 handing the Pats their first reg ssn home loss since ‘08. NY has struggled with attrition but the DL continues to get pressure leading the NFL in sacks with 4 or more four times TY. Both Pierre-Paul and Umenyiora are among the NFL’s top 10 TY they now add a healthy Tuck (3rd gm back) who’s topped 10 sacks 3 of the L4Y. SF has faced 2 teams inside the Top 10 with sacks beating DET (outFD 21-14) thanks to +2 in TO and LW vs WAS held them to 4 punts, 2 TO and a FG in the 1H. SF has played well at home but that was against SEA (#29 off), TB (#29 D) and CLE (#30 off) none of which can match NY’s #2 & #15 rankings. I’ll take the more dynamic D with QB Manning who has a 10-4 ratio away from home.