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The Cardinals were outplayed by the Rams in Bradford’s return from a high ankle sprain getting outgained 400-262 in the 1st matchup TY. Special teams blunders cost STL the game as they had a 42 yd FG blocked on the final play of reg and gave up a 99 yd PR for TD after the 1st drive of OT to lose. This is ARZ’s 4th road game in 5 Wks and they are off their rivalry game vs SF with DAL on deck. The Skelton offense caught up to ARZ LW as they were lucky to be down 9-0 at the half. SF had 12-2 FD and 249-52 yd edges but on 6 drives to the ARZ 31 settled for 3 FG’s missing another 3. This exposed ARZ’s 2 wins for what they were: defense and special teams victories. ARZ has been held to under 100 yds rushing in 5 of their L6 games while giving up an avg of 142 ypg (4.3) in their L6. STL was held to 185 yds LW as they played without both OT’s due to injury after benching their #1 Ctr the week before. SEA’s front 7 stacked up vs Jackson who was held to 42 yds (2.8) and 13 of their first 14 drives ended as a punt or TO. I’ll go with the home team vs an ARZ team that came back to earth LW.

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After 2 nationally televised losses the Jets are firmly in desperation mode here. They beat BUF 27-11 off the bye in the 1st meeting. BUF was held to 3 FD and 77 yds with drives ending in 4 punts, 3 TO’s and 1 SOD. Sanchez has been less than inspiring the L2W with 279 ypg (56%) and a 1-3 ratio and is likely to be playing hurt after LB Miller blasted him LW. After a great start to the season, injuries are catching up to the Bills lack of depth. Already without #1 Ctr Wood (torn ACL) on a beat up OL the Bills were down to 3 healthy WR’s during LW’s game. This allowed MIA to tee off on RB Jackson (17 yds 2.4) and Fitzpatrick has been held to under 200 yds net passing for the 3rd straight week with a 2-7 ratio. Defensively the Bills issues are deeper than their #26 ranking as they’ve allowed 11 TD’s on their L34 drives since the bye. Look for the Jets to be refreshed with the extra rest and angry after letting LW’s game slip thru their fingers and the Bills fall below .500.

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CIN beat CLE 27-17 in Wk 1. CLE clawed back from a 13-0 deficit in the 1Q to take a 17-13 lead mid-3Q. Late in the 4Q the Browns didn’t set their defense and CIN quick snapped with AJ Green getting the go ahead 41 yd TD pass. CIN added a 39 yd TD run by Benson while they were trying to run out the clock. Dalton (81 yds 67% 1-0) was KO’d late in the 1H vs McCoy with 213 yds (48%) with a 2-1 ratio. CIN showed a lot of toughness vs BAL LW as despite 3 int’s by Dalton they outgained the Ravens 483-373. CIN had a 1st & goal at the BAL 7 with :50 left to send it into OT but an intentional grounding penalty on 2nd Dn set up a sack on 4th Dn for the loss. CLE was at home for the 2nd straight vs a JAX team on the road for the 2nd straight. CLE drove down to the JAX 20 4 times with 2 TD, a missed FG and an int but still haven’t scored a TD in the 1st or 3rd Qtrs TY. They have only avg’d 258 ypg and 16.5 ppg on the road TY with 4 of their next 5 on the road now. CIN gets right here and stays in the playoff chase.

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The Texans won 24-14 in the last meeting. HOU has the #1 and #1 units (+7 TO’s) over the L4W w/a 33-11 avg score and that was without Andre Johnson who is expected to return here. HOU is forced to turn to Matt Leinart who has the best RB tandem in the NFL right now in Foster/Tate. They have combined for 1426 yds rushing (4.9) or 225 more yds than the Jaguars. Jags DT Alualu has been playing with a bad knee all year and DT Knighton (ankle) missed the L2W and now they face a top 5 OL here. JAX owns the #32 and #2 units (+4 TO’s) the L4W with a 13-12 avg score with a Def ranking fluffed by facing IND/CLE. Gabbert has only cracked 200 yds passing twice TY (CIN/CLE) and if those are removed he’s avg’d 115 ypg (47%) with a 5-5 ratio. He now faces a HOU defense that has forced either an int (14) or sack (28, 4th) once every 7.7 pass att’s which is in line with Gabbert taking one every 7.5 att’s. HOU keeps it simple and goes with their proven talent for the win here.

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The Colts return off a desperately needed bye with only their 1986 0-13 team having a worse start. There is a strong chance they switch from Painter who has thrown for 100 or less yds in 3 of his L4 games to Dan Orlovsky. Orlovsky started 7 games for DET avg 216 ypg (56%) with a 8-6 ratio. As their records suggest neither team is statistically impressive the L4W with IND having the #31 and #28 units (-8 TO’s) vs CAR having the #11 and #30 units (0 TO’s). CAR’s #30 rush defense (4.8) and #22 pass rush (19 sks) is a direct result of starting rookie DT’s TY along with having 8 different starting LB’s due to injuries. This has had a ripple effect as CAR has our #32 special teams unit (6.1 PR off vs 15.6 PR Def w/ 3 TD’s). After getting hammered 30-3 by TEN, CAR blew a 24-7 lead mid 2Q to DET. CAR was outgained 282-180 in the 2H getting outscored 35-8. They have allowed a TD/FG on 41.8% of their foes drives which is worse than LY (34%). Look for the much needed bye to have reenergized a Colts team to make this very close.

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This is the 3rd road game in 4 weeks for the Bucs. TB has been outgained 408-341 on the road (-4 TO’s) being outscored 31-17 on avg. TB’s issues center on Freeman’s play TY (6.7 ypa 11-15 ratio) and faces a pretty decent TEN pass defense (#16) which is allowing a 6.5 ypa with a respectable 15-9 ratio. This is the 3rd straight NFC South game for TEN after facing CAR/ATL on the road with a road trip to BUF on deck. TEN has been outrushed by 470 yds TY (3.4) vs 124 yds (3.9) at the end of LY. Hasselbeck (elbow strain) left LW’s game with Locker stepping in for 140 yds (47%) 2 TD’s but Munchak has already stated if healthy he’ll go with the vet. TEN still has a good majority of proven players held over from the Fisher era and 3 of their 4 wins are vs sub .500 teams with a 29-9 avg score. TB’s gm LW was misleading as GB had a bigger game on deck and I’ll call for the home team by 3.

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ATL won the last meeting 24-17 in 2008. Ponder has 4 full games with the Vikings going 1-3. Prior to Ponder, MIN was avg 311 ypg and 20.2 ppg (+4 TO’s) and with him at the helm they are avg 343 ypg with 19.8 ppg (-4 TO’s). MIN could be coming into ATL without RB Peterson (94 ypg rush 4.7 prior to LW) due to a left ankle sprain. Aside from Jared Allen (13.5 sks) the Vikings defense has been worse than their #20 ranking as they are 29th on 3rd Dn conv and 30th in pts allowed. This is largely due to their #28 pass defense that has given up 259 ypg (67%) with a 19-6 ratio and an 8.0 ypa. They let OAK score on 4 of their first 5 drives LW which was too much for the offense to overcome. ATL had 400-214 yd edge when on 2nd & goal from the TEN 7 Turner fumbled the ball. ATL went prevent defense which allowed TEN to go 84/14 for the backdoor cover. ATL has outgained foes by 141 ypg the L4W, MIN hasn’t pulled in an Int in 5 straight games and I’ll take the home team building momentum despite LW’s results.

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Statistically these are two similar teams with the Bears having the #18 and #14 units (+9 TO’s) vs OAK with the #8 and #15 units the L4W and their -3 TO’s mark improves to +1 TO’s if the KC game is taken out. In the L3 games the Raiders are avg 251 ypg passing (63%) with a 6-4 ratio vs 206 ypg (58%) with a 7-10 ratio with 22.9 ppg prior. Palmer is giving OAK the deep threat strike it lacked with Campbell which has taken a lot of pressure off the #4 rush offense (157 ypg 4.8). After a tough start, Cutler has avg’d 219 ypg (60%) with an 8-3 ratio and has only been sacked 8 times vs 15 in the first 4 Wks. They have also improved their balance on offense since the DET loss with 162 rushes vs 147 pass att’s. OAK deserves to be commended for their record but they are 1-1 vs teams w/a winning record right now losing to NE and beating HOU in an emotional game. With Cutler out though, I'll go with the Raiders.

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Both teams are off their primary division rivals. SEA has a clear situational edge with WAS having to come cross country here after facing 3 physical defenses. WAS brought its “A” game vs DAL LW as Grossman had the best effort by a Redskins QB TY (289 yds 66% 2-1) since the season opener vs the Giants (305 yds 62% 2-0). With that said Rex is making his first road start since STL on 10/2 and in his 2 games away TY the Skins have scored 15 and 17 points. SEA continues to build confidence and are off upsets over BAL and STL the L2W. The SEA running game has allowed QB Jackson to use more play action and RB Lynch has now avg’d 111 ypg the L/3. Meanwhile you have to question the psyche of the Skins who are now 3-7 after missing a FG in OT and have lost their last 3 road games to CAR and MIA.

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The Patriots are off LW’s MNF game vs KC and only have the Colts on deck. PHI is off LW’s SNF game vs the Giants and have a road game vs SEA on deck in 4 days. The 2 key differences here is NE being +3 TO’s vs PHI at -7. This has kept NE’s depleted #32 defense out of bad spots for the most part even though they are the only team to earn and allow 400 ypg TY. Despite dealing with one of his slower receiving units, Brady has already topped 3,000 yds passing (337 ypg 66% 23-10). He’s led NE to a TD or FG on 25 of 56 drives TY (44.1%) on the road. PHI was forced to start Vince Young LW with Vick (ribs) sidelined and they got the upset win. PHI is 1-5 vs .500 or better teams right now despite a 442-344 yd edge due to -9 TO’s in those games. While PHI OL coach Mudd will give the offense tips on Belichick’s defense the Patriots despite their issues have much more going for them right now.

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The Chargers are 9-2 vs the Broncos including a 29-24 victory in the last meeting. SD had a 23-10 lead at the half with 15-5 FD and 276-109 yd edges with Orton in vs DEN. Tebow started the 2H and while he had just 79 yds passing (40%) he had added a TD pass/run in the 4Q. DEN had a 166-142 yd edge in the 2H and the Chargers admitted they were gassed due to Tebow after the game. DEN is 1-4 without Tebow starting TY being outgained by 82 ypg and outscored 28-21. They are 4-1 with him and minus the DET game are +3 yds. They are +4 TO’s in their 4 wins with a 23-16 avg score. With Tebow getting the limelight the defense has been fantastic with a 25% 3rd Dn rate, 105 ypg rushing (3.8) and 15 of their 27 sks. SD has lost 5 straight since the bye due to Rivers inconsistent play (career high 17 int’s) and a slew of injuries. However, they do have more talent defensively and more explosive players on offense than DEN has at the moment. Look for SD to get an early lead but for DEN to keep it interesting in the 4Q here.