DAL beat DET 35-19 with both teams using backup QB’s. DET had a 12-7 lead in the 3Q and held the Cowboys to 0 FD’s and -9 yds on 5 straight drives after their opening drive. DET gave up a 97 yd PR for a TD, fumbled on their 19 to set up a 19/4 TD drive and gave up 71 and 80 yd TD drives in the 4Q. DAL is off LW’s MNF game vs the Redskins and got another win. LW DET rallied from 20-0 down vs MIN to win in OT. After being held to 40 yds net passing in the 1H Stafford led DET to a 20-3 scoring surge in the 2H with 15-5 FD and 308-108 yd edges. Megatron (C Johnson) finished with 108 yds (15.4) after being held to 7 yds (7.0) in the 1H as the defense held Peterson to just 5 yds (1.0). DET will be dealing with the media touting their first 3-0 start since 1980, their first win at the Metrodome in 15 years and it’s now on them to handle success. While beat up DAL is the more potent than what the Lions have faced so far and I’ll call for them by 7.

NO’s defense struggled LW without MLB Vilma (left knee) as HOU rung up 364 yds passing. In the 2H, NO posted 20-10 FD and 277-172 yd edges. After punting on their first2 drives, NO scored on 6 of their next 9 drives converting 6 of 8 3rd Dns in the 2H. Gabbert had a slow start vs CAR LW getting outgained 88 to -1 in the 1Q as 36 of his 139 yds came on the last play of the 1H when the Panthers had busted coverage with JAX giving up a safety for the 2nd straight week. While Jones-Drew had 122 yds (5.1), 39 came on 1 run and JAX started the 2H with 9 runs on their first10 plays with Gabbert bobbling the snap. Granted conditions were poor but JAX only ran 12 plays (no punt/FG) on the CAR side of the field LW. After poor efforts vs Clausen and McCoy LY, NO won’t look past JAX w/a rookie QB here and I’ll go with them again.

Instead of flying back home after the CIN game, SF is opting to spend 5 days practicing at Youngstown St. This is the 6th meeting in 7Y with PHI being 5-0 with a 35-18 avg score. LY PHI with Kolb won 27-24 on SNF as SF had the ball at the PHI 40 but under pressure Smith threw an int w/:30 left to seal the game. SF had 10 pen’s and 5 TO’s in the loss. The 49ers have issues with Edwards (knee) out and Crabtree (foot) is limited. In 3 games Gore (ankle sprain) has been held to 148 yds (2.5) and coverage is rolled over on TE Davis (15 rec 11.9). Harbaugh has been very conservative thanks to an OL that’s given up 11 sacks (1 every 6.7 att’s) that may not have Ctr Goodwin (knee). Vick broke his non-throwing hand LW vs NYG and his status is unknown. Kafka (107 yds 69% 0-2) may know the offense better than Young (hamstring) but he’s not as experienced. Look for PHI to use a heavy dose of McCoy (115 yds 6.1) on the ground while the defense locks down the 49ers passing game here.

This is the 4th meeting in as many years and the Rams have a 360-269 avg yd edge. LY the Rams won 36-16 despite RB Jackson being KO’d on a dirty play. While the yards were fairly even STL ran 25 more plays, held WAS to 1 of 10 on 3rd Dns and on 6 drives inside the WAS 20 had 2 TD’s, 3 FG’s while missing 1. WAS is off LW’s big MNF game vs DAL and travels for the 2nd straight week with Haslett having been the DC 2006-08. STL was outFD 17-6 and outgained 406-81 at the half vs a BAL team angry after getting manhandled vs TEN. STL did get RB Jackson (23 yds 5.8) back in limited duty and he’ll get more time here. WAS is an underrated team as the roster plays to the coaches schemes instead of fighting it. While both teams have a bye on deck STL is in a better situation at home and desperate to avoid 0-4.

This looks to be a fairly even matchup with rookie coaches and talent for both teams. TEN has an edge with Hasselbeck (330 yds 70% 5-2) knowing OC Palmer’s system and working behind a much better OL than what he had with SEA. TEN’s offense took a serious blow with Britt (ACL/MCL) getting hurt LW and Johnson (98 yds 2.1) has struggled in the new system. TEN’s defense is also giving up 3rd Dns at a big clip (20 of 43). CLE was dominated statistically LW being outFD 12-5 and outgained 234-99 at the half. CLE Hillis (throat) DNP and while McCoy didn’t light up the fantasy numbers (210, 49%, 2-1) he kept the team in the game. CLE kept the pressure on Henne with 5 sks/8 QBH’s and NT Taylor (18 tkls 1 sks) is looking like the real deal. Look for CLE to continue to play small ball offensively and the defense to lock in on Johnson as TEN lacks a receiving threat to take advantage.

BUF beat CIN 49-31 LY after CIN had a 31-14 lead at the half. Fitzpatrick led BUF on 3 TD drives along with a 27 yd fumble return to take a 42-31 lead. BUF added a 30 yd TD run while trying to run out the clock & finished w/a 235-141 2H yd edge. CIN blew a good situation LW getting SF at home off an OT loss vs DAL. The Bengals may be without RB Benson (susp), lost #3 WR Shipley (ACL) 2 Wks ago and #4 WR Simpson status is unknown. Over the L2W CIN is 2 of 21 on 3rd Dns and Dalton only has a 6.6 ypa. BUF could be a bit worn out here after B2B wins after rallying from a 21-3 deficit vs OAK and a 21-0 spot vs NE. After years of horrible OL play BUF has allowed just 1 sack in 111 att’s w/a 5.6 ypc on the ground. BUF leads the NFL with 3 WR sets (108 snaps prior to LW) to spread the field and run out of it much like the Titans did with Eddie George. They have the #3 offense despite their top 4 WR’s LW being a 7th RD DC and 3 UFA’s w/a 4th RD DC TE. I’ll call for the home team by 1 in a lower scoring game as BUF finds out how tough success is.

After blowing a 17 pt lead at home vs TB the Vikings blew a 20-0 lead at home vs DET. MIN is the only team in the NFL w/o a TD in the 2H being outscored 64-6. So far TY in the 2H MIN has been outgained by 208, 159 and 200 yds with a total of 15 FD’s. MIN is not a great grass team largely as it negates the speed of their DL and RB Peterson. KC was able to hang around a worn out SD team that rested TE Gates (foot) and limited RB Tolbert and WR Floyd due to injuries. However, they were outgained 375-252 had a 9:26 TOP deficit with ZERO FD’s and 34 yds in the 1H. KC’s defense has just 3 sacks in 104 pass att’s that has given up 46.5% conversions on 3rd Dn. Cassel has a puny 5.2 ypa with a 3-5 ratio due to targets that struggle to get open. On the surface the Chiefs played well LW but I think Minnesota finishes here.

Cutler sat out of LY’s 23-6 victory due to a concussion. Both teams had horrible QB play combining for 147 yds (43%) with 7 int’s and 8 sks. CHI had a 247-147 yd edge with CAR being the first team since 1999 to start a rookie QB and 2 rookie WR’s. CAR got its first win under Ron Rivera (Bears DC 2004-06) overcoming a big JAX play to end the 1H. Newton became the first rookie QB to have 1000 yds passing over his first 3 games. While he only had 158 yds (53%) he didn’t turn the ball over which was the key difference. Vs NO, Cutler had 6 sacks on 45 pass att’s vs just 12 rush att’s (5.0) and he openly wondered if he’d survive the season. Martz followed it up with another 12 rushing attempts and CHI had their fewest rush yds (13) since 1952. CHI’s defense has a great front 7 but their safeties have been beaten up and exposed giving up 70% with a 6-2 ratio so far. I think the game will be close but give me the Bears in the end.

PIT has had the luxury of beating up on SEA and facing a shell of a Colts team the L2W to ease the pain of losing to BAL. They now get a sizeable challenge vs HOU who are off a shootout loss to NO. The Texans were able to move the ball easily between the 20’s but were mired down in the redzone. On 4 of 6 drives inside the NO 20 the Texans were forced to settle for FG’s which came back to haunt them later. HOU has had impressive offensive balance so far with 102 runs (4.1) vs 92 passes (8.9) with an OL in its 3rd straight year together. The defense isn’t as good as its #15 ranking but it is better than LY by leaps and bounds. PIT does have trouble vs top tier QB’s that can get the ball off fast as shown by Rodgers in the SB and Flacco in Wk 1. They were expected to be without DE Keisel (knee) and CB McFadden (hamstring) vs IND LW. I’ll call for the home team by a FG here.

ATL came to SEA at the end of LY and blasted the Seahawks 34-18 to wrap up a 3 game road trip. SEA only had 2 drives over 20 yds in the game with ATL starting at their 40 or better on 4 drives. SEA’s OL has gone thru 3 different OL combos in its first 3 games and if LW’s unit starts it will have 52 career starts combined. They have given up 14 sacks (1 every 6.9 att’s) and are only grinding out a 3.3 ypc. They got past ARZ LW thanks to 2 int’s and 2 missed FG’s. 9 of SEA’s 12 drives ended in punts or TO’s. ATL was out of sync after their big win vs PHI LW. TB jumped all over the ground game (30 yds 2.0) and Ryan was forced to put it up 47 times only getting 1 TD drive. ATL is more explosive on both sides of the ball and I’ll call for them by 6 as they can’t fall behind esp with GB on deck.

This is the 3rd meeting in 4 years with the road team winning both matchups. The NYG have to be in a bit of a flat spot opening this season at WAS, hosting STL on MNF and then knocking off Philly on the road LW. They used a bend but don’t break D and allowed a 10, 15 and a 14pl drive for a total of 6 points while allowing the longest play for the “big play” Eagles to be only 24 yds. On the flip side the “conservative” NYG off had 5 plays of 26+ yards incl TD passes of 28, 40 and 74 yds. LW the Cards were on the road as Kolb driving them late for the potential-tying FG tossed an int in the 13-10 loss to SEA. While LY’s #31 off has clearly improved with the addition of Kolb (271 ypg 63%, 5-3) the defense even with LW’s solid performance is allowing 398 ypg. Even with the Giants in a flat spot, Manning and Comp should be able to exploit a ARZ secondary that is allowing 286 ypg.

MIA’s #30 defense is in a tough spot after facing 2 elite QB’s to start the year, travelling to CLE then having to fly out to face the #5 offense before its bye week. MIA has a bye on deck and certainly will have a sense of desperation with their 0-3 start after allowing an 80/13pl GW drive and a 14yd TD pass w/:43 left at CLE as the rumors have already begun about who will replace HC Sparano. SD’s off which finished #1 LY (396 ypg) started this season in the same manner topping 375+ in all 3 games and got the bad taste of the NE loss out of their mouths with a 375-252 edge LW beating KC. The D also rebounded and is now allowing 220 ypg in their 2 home games. While it is well noted of the Chargers early season struggles the Dolphins are in complete disarray and SD moves to 3-1 for the first time S/’06.

Kyle Orton returns to GB where he struggled against the Pack as the Bears QB throwing for just 112 ypg (49%) with a 2-3 ratio in 4 games. DEN’s offense bogged down in their first road game LW and managed only 1 drive over 42 yards and the inexp’d OL has struggled with the new blocking schemes as Orton has been sacked 8 times and the run game has struggled (76 ypg, 3.2). The Broncos now make a 2nd road trip to face a GB squad that is off a div road game with a Sunday Night trip to ATL (who will be seeking playoff loss revenge) on deck. The Packers D allowed 476 ypg the first 2 gms but just 291 vs CHI LW and they have continued to get pressure with 10 sks TY. With TE Finley (3 TD rec LW) and RB Grant healthy TY the GB off is as potent as ever and the DEN D may be in for a rude awakening versus QB Rogers after having played OAK (#23 pass off LY), CIN (rookie QB) and TEN (new QB, #26 LY). While DEN had 3 straight games decided by 3 points or less, this week they take a huge leap in competition.

It’s been 10 years since these two met in the “tuck rule” playoff game with NE winning in OT and going on to win the Super Bowl. The question is will Belichick be more upset after his team blew a 21-0 lead LW or will Brady who’s 4 int’s LW were as many as all of 2010. OAK is off a big win vs NYJ as McFadden ran wild with 171 (9.0) and 2 TD’s while Campbell continued his efficient play and is avg 195 ypg (66%) with a 3-1 ratio. What looked like a potential flat spot for NE on their second straight road game, traveling across country with the NY Jets on deck now does a 180. NE will be happy facing a run oriented team after allowing 344 ypg passing (469 ypg overall!). The NE offense out paced the porous defense by avg 540 ypg the first 3 and will not let up after blowing the lead last week.