It’s tough to look at these teams right now and think they were their respective div winners LY. KC entered LY’s game as the NFL’s last unbeaten team until IND won 19-9. KC was continually put in bad spots by Haley who opened the game w/an onside kick which IND recovered and turned into a FG. KC drove to the IND 8 but had an inc pass on 4th and 2 which IND turned into a FG. KC finally got into the win column LW after fending off a late rally by the Vikings. KC’s passing game finally showed up as Bowe (107, 21.4) and Breaston (91, 22.8) got into the flow. KC converted 6 of 15 3rd Dns and the final score should have been more one sided but on 3 drives inside the MIN 22 they settled for 3 FG’s. IND switched to Painter (143 yds 28% 0-2 career total) on MNF LW and also IR’d MLB Brackett (shoulder) and SS Bullitt (shoulder) beforehand. I’ll call for the home team by just over a FG here as Painter looked serviceable last week.

This matchup has 2 former PHI QB’s with McNabb (170 ypg 59% 4-2) vs Kolb (262 ypg 62% 5-4). MIN beat ARZ 27-24 LY going to OT. Down 14 with 5 min left in the 4Q MIN rolled up 117 yds on 8 plays for a pair of TD’s to force OT. ARZ went 3 & out in OT and MIN hit a 35 yd FG for the win. MIN had a 507-225 yd edge but a 96 yd KR for a TD along with 3 TO’s gave ARZ 17 pts. MIN’s 2H woes continue as they’ve been outscored 47-13 and outgained by 612 total yards. While the OL (1 sack every 11.1 att’s) is largely to blame, it’s disturbing that McNabb has been held to under 6.8 ypa in 3 of 4 games. MIN’s defense is getting torn apart on 3rd Dn (26 of 57 46%) with a weak secondary (#28 pass D, 6-3 ratio) and star WLB Greenway was KO’d of LW’s game. ARZ gave up 14 FD and 214 yds to the Giants in the 4Q for 3 TD’s in their loss. ARZ’s only win came vs CAR in the season opener and they have given up 280 yds or more passing in 3 games. MIN is faster, more desperate and even in the DET loss players noted the cameras for the coaches film were vibrating due to crowd noise.

The Bills are 3-1 despite a roster with 28 players being 5th RD DC’s or lower inc UFA’s. BUF’s #9 offense has faced 4 defenses ranked 22, 28, 32 and 1st with CIN’s ranking being inflated vs McCoy & Smith. After rallying from 18 pts in B2B games the Bills blew a 14 pt lead losing to CIN. BUF still has issues with the run giving up 130 ypg (4.9) so far and are allowing 19 of 46 on 3rd Dns (41%). PHI failed to capitalize on a good situation getting a weak and dinged up SF offense in its 2nd road game. PHI blew 15-7 FD and 293-153 yd edges at the half with a 20-3 lead. PHI checked out of the game after hitting a FG on their 1st drive of the 2H and SF made them pay with 21 unanswered points. Vick had a great game (480 total yds) but the defense gave up 289 yds in the 2H. PHI is very vulnerable at LB and Safety right now giving up 5 passes of 25+ yds to SF LW. PHI has a big talent edge on the field and they finally play up to their potential.

OAK is 1-5 vs the Texans including a 31-24 loss LY. Campbell DNP in LY’s matchup and McFadden (47 yds 3.9) left in the 4Q w/a hamstring injury. Foster compiled 187 yds (9.4) from scrimmage as 3 OAK TO’s resulted in 7 pts w/a missed 46 yd FG. HOU dominated PIT in the 1H LW (14-7 FD 216-125 yd edge) but faded in the 2H when WR Johnson (hamstring) went out. HOU only had 3 FD’s and 102 yds in the 2H w/ 42 yds coming on a TD run by Foster. HOU’s #9 scoring offense has forced teams to abandon the run early but losing Johnson (20% of LY’s offense, 23% TY) is a huge problem. HOU’s #7 rush defense (4.9) will have a big challenge vs OAK’s #1 rush offense (5.6) that has avg’d 134 ypg (5.3) in its L10 road games. While this will be another 11 am game for OAK, they don’t travel as far and the loss of Johnson has this at a TD difference for now.

This is the 3rd time since 1990 that 2 teams that had 500 yds offense the previous week. NO lost to CIN 31-16 in the last event. NO was in a pure letdown spot in the 1st meeting after opening the season on Thur, travelling to SF for MNF and going to OT vs ATL. NO had a 383-251 yd edge but 3 FG’s and a fumble at the CAR 20 kept them sharp for the 2nd meeting. 5 Wks later NO blew out CAR 34-3 w/a 408-195 yd edge with 10 of CAR’s 1st 11 drives going for 30 yds or less (missed FG on 11th). CAR went all in for HC Rivera vs his former team with a 543-317 yd edge. CAR gave up a 20 yd IR, a 69 yd PR along w/a 200 yd rusher in the loss. Newton had tons of yards again (409 total) but that was vs a CHI defense w/o its top 2 safeties with a MNF game vs DET on deck. I have been riding the Saints bandwagon all year and I’ll go with them again in a lower scoring game.

For the 2nd time in 3 Wks the Jaguars face a rookie QB and for the 3rd straight week they have scored 10 or less. JAX has only scored 3 TD’s in 4 games and have been outscored 51-6 in the 2H. JAX’s offensive situation reminds of CAR LY where they only had 1 solid receiving threat (WR Thomas 20 rec 10.6), a good running threat (Jones-Drew 98 ypg 5.1) with an overacheiving defense (#12). OC Koetter has to keep the system simple as Gabbert only has 69 real pass att’s (5.6 ypa) after being groomed to be the #2 in preseason. CIN is a surprising +65 ypg offense (-1 TO) so far with a rookie QB and a rookie WR in the lineup for a new system. JAX in Koetter’s 5th year is -72 ypg (-2 TO’s) and have been outpassed by 365 yds on the year. I’ll call for the Jags as Koetter pull out all the stops here.

This is the 4th straight year these 2 have met. PIT was w/o Roethlisberger in LY’s matchup in Wk 2 in a 19-11 win despite being outgained 238-127. The Steelers ST and defense were the difference as they took the opening KO 89 yds for a TD, pulled in 11 plays behind the LOS (1 every 6 TEN plays) and forced 7 TO’s. PIT was very lucky to be down just 10-0 in the 1H vs HOU as they were outFD 14-7 and outgained 216-125. HOU returned a blocked FG for a TD but had 6 pts taken off the board due w/a penalty at the half. TEN’s 3 wins have been vs a flat BAL team off a big win vs PIT, a beat up DEN team on the road and a young CLE team that gave up plays of 80 and 57 yds that resulted in 14 pts along with a 97 yd IR for TD. TEN rolled out plays CLE hadn’t seen on film in LW’s game but now face a more savvier PIT defense that is still at an elite level (#2). Look for the loss of WR Britt to start catching up to TEN here and PIT to flex after a loss again.

Coughlin takes Seahawks games seriously. In 2005, the Giants lost 24-21 in OT (due to 11 false starts) and were blasted 42-3 in the 1H in 2006. In the L2 meetings the Giants have won w/a 42-6 avg score. LY as a 7.5 pt AF vs a more experienced (but beat up SEA team) the Giants left w/a 487-162 yd edge. SEA only had the ball for 5:31 in the entire 2H and were held to 20 yds or less on 8 of their 1st 10 drives. LW the NYG rallied from a 27-17 deficit w/5:16 left in the 4Q to beat the Cards 31-27 as Manning hit 27-40 for 321 and threw 2 TD’s during a :58 span in the 4Q. The Giants pass rush was able to get consistent pressure on Kolb (4 sks, 4 QBH) and now face a SEA OL that gave up 14 sks in the 1st 3 wks before all’g 0 LW. The Seahawks LW found themselves down 27-7 in the 3Q before cutting it to 30-28 in the 4Q and missed a desperation 61-yd FG w/:13 left. Jackson threw 3 TD’s and now is avg a respectable 212 ypg (62%) with a 5-4 ratio. The Giants are beginning to gain confidence with each passing week.

LY SF sustained their 1st home shutout loss in 33 years as TB left w/a 21-0 win in their 3rd road game in 4 Wks (w/a 4th on deck). TB logged a season high 6 sks w/a 299-189 yd edge (SF had just 21 off plays in the 1H) as the Bucs “improved” to 3-23 all time in California. After B2B East Coast games (which they asked for), SF has a strong situational edge here. TB is off their 1st MNF home game since 2003 with a home game vs NO and the London game vs CHI on deck. TB is 9-2 on the road but SF is 8-3 at home with the heavily maligned Smith at the helm. SF is off a huge upset win at PHI LW where they rallied from a 20 pt deficit early 3Q. Smith had 201 yds (76%) with 2 TD’s in the 2H and Gore had his 1st 100 yd game since Halloween LY. SF is atop the NFC West despite being outgained by 87 ypg by not turning the ball over +8 TO’s (tied #1 w/ DET). I’ll call for SF by a FG.

The Jets blitz heavy/big name CB defense is specifically designed for NE/IND/SD style teams but in his L3 home games vs the Jets, Brady has avg’d 312 yds (61%) with a 7-1 ratio. Sanchez has yet to hit 200 yds passing in NE avg 165 ypg (52%) w/a 4-7 ratio. While the NYJ lost on SNF LW the Pats got a nice bounce back win over OAK 31-19. As predicted QB Brady rebounded from a 4 int performance vs BUF to throw for 226 yds and had 0 int’s. While WR Welker had a big game 158 yds (17.6) it was the non-existent ground game that finally got going with 183 yds (6.1) but the D (#32) again gave up 500+ yds. NE has the situational edge with this being the Jets 3rd straight road game coming off OAK and a SNF matchup vs BAL and you have to feel LY’s disappointing home loss to the Jets still lingers in the minds of Belichick and Co.

The Chargers survived their usual Sept swoon going 2-1 with an explainable loss at NE. LW against MIA they again topped 400 yds on offense but 4 FG’s kept the score tight. SD has been productive on the div road but LY they went 1-2 despite outgaining all 3 foes by 176 ypg. The Chargers have enjoyed this trip as they’ve won B2B games. DEN’s now must try to regroup after B2B long road trips and losses. Big plays have been DEN problem allowing 17 plays of 18+ yds the L/4 games while only producing 11 themselves. SD should continue to exploit that as the Broncos have now allowed 26 plays of 18+ yds on the season. I’ll continue to buck the Broncos with Orton who is now 4-17 in his last 21 starts.