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The Rams come out of the bye in very poor shape due to injuries. Both of STL’s starting CB’s are on IR and they lost their projected nickel CB prior to camp. LY they had the #19 pass defense (best in the NFC West) w/a 21-14 TD/int ratio and a 6.8 ypa and TY’s #11pass defense with only 1 secondary starter from 2010 has a tough matchup here. At this point STL has struggled to run OC McDaniels Patriots offense (outscored 79-16 1H TY) due to OL problems (1 sack every 8.4 pass att’s), a bad WR unit depleted by injuries (lost WR Amendola 90 rec 8.2 w/ Bradford) and RB Jackson (hamstring) getting hurt. Bradford’s 5.6 ypa in a vertical offense is worse than LY’s 6.0 ypa as a rookie in a West Coast system. STL is getting GB at a great time though after 3 road games in 4 Wks with ATL on SNF and MIN on SNF on deck. Look for McDaniels to channel the offense thru a healthy Steven Jackson who has avg’d 132 total ypg (5.0) after a bye in his career to take the pressure off the defense against a Packer team due for a lull. In the end though the Packers are the best team in the NFL and they get the road win by 10 to move to 6-0.

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PIT beat JAX 26-21 in the last matchup in 2008. In 2010 the Jags avg’d 341 ypg and 21.4 ppg offensively with a total of 47 pass plays of 20+ yds. TY they are down to 271 ypg and 11.8 ppg with 9 pass plays of 20+ yds. Over the L4 games the Jags have totalled 284 yds passing (43%) with a 1-3 ratio in the 2H. PIT was w/o 4 starters LW vs TEN and while active RB Mendenhall (hamstring) DNP. LY PIT was 2nd in the NFL with +17 TO’s and were tied for 2nd w/ CHI for 35 takeaways. TY they are last with -10 TO’s and have only earned 4 takeaways. Part of this is due to the fact they’ve started 5 different OL’s (9 diff players started) so far with LT Starks getting 3 practices after being a street FA. While JAX does have a better defense vs LY (#28 vs #8) they still have a bad pass rush (8 sks #22) with 1 sack every 21 att’s which is good for Roethlisberger who’s been taken down 15 times (1 every 16.8 att’s). I’ll call for PIT with better skill players at home vs a JAX team with a rookie QB vs LeBeau’s system.

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LY WAS upset PHI 17-12 in the 1st meeting with Vick (ribs) being KO’d in the 1Q. PHI blew out WAS 59-28 in one of the best MNF efforts by a QB. Vick had 333 yds (71%) with a 4-0 ratio adding 2 rushing TD’s as PHI finished w/a 592-375 yd edge scoring TD’s on their 1st 5 drives. LY the Redskins gave up 389 ypg (31th), 23.6 ppg and 128 ypg rushing (4.6) with tons of distractions. TY with a rebuilt DL they are allowing 297 ypg (1st), 15.8 ppg with 85 ypg rush (4.3). After 4 games, WAS has just over half (15 2nd) their sacks vs all of 2010 (29 25th 1 every 19.9 att’s) with 1 every 9.4 att’s. After hammering STL transitioning to a new system in the opener, PHI has dropped 4 games. They have turned the ball over a min of 3 times in that span (14 total 5 LW) which foes have converted into 52 pts. The Eagles back is in do or die mode here and they did tally 489 yds vs BUF. Look for ball control and fundamentals to be a huge emphasis in practice as the Eagles get on track.

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This is the 3rd meeting in 4 years w/ SF winning both by a 26-10 avg score. This is SF’s 3rd road game in 4 Wks but they have a bye on deck while DET is off their 1st MNF game in 10 years with ATL on deck. While DET’s 4 game win streak at the end of 2010 raised expectations the 49ers are one of the big surprise teams for 2011. Harbaugh has streamlined the offense to a college level enabling Smith to play smart, clean ball. While he’s not putting up huge yardage numbers (193 ypg) Smith has got a crisp ypa (7.7) with 66% and a 7-1 ratio. Simply put he’s not putting the defense into bad situations and Gore (126 ypg 7.2 the L2W) is starting to get into the flow. SF’s special teams are also playing at a high level with a 45.8 net punt avg, 11.8 PR and 32.5 KR avg thanks to Ginn. SF is an undervalued team right now as the NFC West gets little respect and the Lions are due for a drop off after coming back from B2B 20 pt deficits and a huge MNF game. Lions get the win but it will be close.

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ATL has won 4 of the L5 meetings. ATL won both meetings LY 31-10 with 340-290 yd edges. In Ryan’s 3 home starts he’s avg’d 248 ypg (70%) w/a 5-1 ratio vs the Panthers. ATL was one of the most aggressive and disciplined teams in the NFL LY finishing with an NFL best 58 penalties (116 for foes) and were 3rd with +14 TO’s with 31 takeaways. Prior to GB, they had already tallied 27 penalties (27 for foes) and were even with 0 TO’s (8 takeaways). After having our #8 special teams LY they dropped to 22nd as of LW. Their pass rush has been their biggest disappointment with just 5 sacks (30th) with 1 every 27.8 pass att’s. CAR is 1-4 due to special teams (29.0 net avg on punts, 5.7 PR avg, 27.2 KR avg given up) and the #27 run defense which has given up 135 ypg (4.9). They are avg 428 ypg on offense with 23.2 ppg vs 258 ypg and 12.3 ppg LY. Newton has either passed or ran for 12 of the teams 13 TD’s so far. CAR is proving to be a very scrappy dog in 2011 but they still don't have enough D and ST's to pull off the upset.

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TO’s were the key in LY’s meeting as the Colts defeated the Bengals 23-17. IND forced 5 TO’s which they turned into 13 pts as Manning who has never lost to CIN was held to no TD’s. IND wasted a 17-0 lead in the 2Q at home vs KC LW. The Colts were outgained 395-62 from that point as already worn out from MNF they were broken by 38 rush att’s (5.1) overall. 271 of Painters 588 yds the L2W have been on 7 passes to Garcon while Wayne hasn’t had 80 yds since the opener. IND has had 4 different OL’s in 5 games giving up 10 sacks (16th) or 1 every 16.6 att’s and are likely to be missing their best pass protector RB Addai (hamstring). CIN has logged 13 sacks (7th) (1 every 12.1 att’s) allowing 191 ypg (57%) w/a 5-1 ratio. CIN played rope-a-dope with the Jags LW (only 1 play over 20 yds) staying efficient (8 of 19 on 3rd Dns) pouncing when the Jags made a mistake late (22 yd shanked punt). CIN may not have much of a home edge here due to a lack of fan interest but they are healthier, deeper and more fundamentally sound right now.

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The Bills get to face another angry NFC East team wondering what happened after a home loss. While in a great situation LW at home vs SEA coming cross country the Giants struggled to get their power run game in gear with RB Jacobs (knee) and Ctr Baas (neck) out. NY was outrushed 145 (5.0) to 69 (2.8) and failed to convert their first 8 3rd Dns. The Giants D played more than well enough to win forcing 3 TO’s, with 22 plays behind the LOS as they KO’d QB Jackson. They had a 1st and goal on the SEA 10 2 with 1:25 left but the WR slipped on his route the ball tipped off 2 players and was returned 94 yds for a TD. BUF redirected the Eagles aggressive play style as they converted 4 TO’s into 17 pts. While the Bills only have the #28 defense (#13 scoring) they are +11 TO’s which is giving their #11 offense (#3 scoring) extra drives. Look for Coughlin to call a physical game here and let his #1 pass rush dictate terms to Fitzpatrick and company here.

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The Ravens beat the Texans LY 34-28 in OT. BAL had a 28-7 lead after taking the opening KO 103 yds for a TD. HOU then outgained BAL 301-71 in the 2H sending the game to OT w/a 2 pt conv with :29 left to wrap up a 95/12 drive. After punting on the 1st drive of OT, BAL int’d Schaub for a 12 yd TD to get the win. The Ravens find themselves in an ideal position off a bye at home with HOU off 2 physical games vs PIT and OAK. In their 3 wins the Ravens have outgained foes 402-267 (+9 TO’s) with a 35-10 avg score. They have dominated QB’s in those games allowing 163 ypg (45%) with a 2-5 ratio. HOU was in a flat spot LW without WR Johnson vs an emotional OAK team. HOU had a 473-278 yd edge and were in position to win the game at the OAK 5 with 8 sec left. Schaub had his 2nd int to end the game with his 1st being turned into 3 pts as was a missed FG earlier. HOU has already stood toe-to-toe on the road vs NO and I will back the improved D off of a loss.

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The Browns won the last meeting 23-9 in 2009. CLE needed the bye week to do some self scouting as they have been outscored by a combined 53-9 in the 1st and 3 Qtrs. Still adjusting to a new system, CLE has essentially had to field 2 rookie OG’s and have used 3 different starters at RT. McCoy’s 5.7 ypa is 29th in the NFL and the team struggles to work outside the numbers with arguably the slowest receiving unit in the NFL. OAK is off a huge emotional game dedicated to Al Davis and have a great chance to have their 3rd home sellout of the year. OAK’s offense has come a long way under HC Jackson as in 2009 they avg’d 266 ypg with 12.3 ppg. Now with Campbell running the same offense for the 2nd year in a row for just the 2nd time in his career, the Raiders are avg 382 ypg and 27.2 ppg. The #29 defense is giving up yards (422) and points (26.6) in chunks but CLE is only avg 320 ypg and 18.5 ppg. I’ll call for OAK by a TD here.

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The bye came at an excellent time for the Cowboys (5-1 after a bye) due to injuries. They are slated to get #1 WR Austin, #2 CB Scandrick and starting DE Hatcher back as well having Romo (ribs) and Jones (shoulder) in better shape. Statistically, DAL looks to be in good shape with the #8 and #6 units but TO’s (-4) have done them in along with the OL being rebuilt. DAL owns the #31 run game (87 ypg 3.0) but it has failed in key situations. The Pats have rolled off 13 straight games of scoring 30 or more (99-00 Rams 14) with a quality win vs the Jets. NE’s best defense is their offense as they have allowed 21 or more in 4 of 5 games TY. They are converting 3rd Dns at a supernatural 52% and thru 5 games Welker (740 16.4) has more receiving yards than any player in NFL history. Their effort vs the Jets was the 1st game TY where they allowed less than 445 yds though. I’ll call for the home team by 11 here as they have tons of momentum, Romo is on a 3-7 run as a starter and teams off byes generally need a 1.5 Qtrs to get going.

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LY NO won the 1st meeting 31-6 which they dominated more than the final score indicates. The Saints had 24-12 FD and 426-172 yd edges before they took the field for their 1st punt with 12 min left in the game. NO converted 9 of 12 3rd Dns as they outrushed the Bucs 212-42 (6.6-2.3). At quick glance you may favor the Buc’s situation with NO on their third road game but TB is off their first MNF home game S/’01 and a trip to SF. TB is clearly learning to win as evidenced by victories at MIN, and vs ATL and IND but against a superior foe they are 1-10 ATS as a HD and 0-5 ATS as a conf HD. TB was handed a 45 pt thrashing by SF where they were outFD 22-10 and outgained 304-195 after they hit their FG. Making things worse was the fact that RB Blount was KO’d in the 3Q w/a knee injury. We’ll take the veteran Saints with a manageable line vs a young Bucs team with a long trip to London on deck.