Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

IND won both meetings LY. TEN i has a big edge here with IND on the road for the 3rd straight week and coming off a SNF game vs NO. The Titans offensive struggles hit a new low LW as their 148 yds gives them a 4 week avg of 280 ypg. TEN’s defense matched the putrid performance by allowing 518 yds and a pair of 100 yd rushers. Minus their win vs a flat BAL team they have been outgained by 102 ypg TY compared to 108 ypg by the Colts. The Colts are off a dismal loss to NO and at 0-7 it’s difficult to imagine QB Painter being able to lead this group mentally. Look for the Colts D to fade as the offense is avg just 16 FD/gm leaving the defense on the field for over 35:00 per game. IND’s D allowed 3.3 ypc their 1st 3 games but prior to SNF they’ve allowed 4.6 ypc the L/3. TEN has the better defense here and Hasselbeck’s thumb injury isn’t expected to be major. I’ll call for the home team by a TD with the Colts in their 4th road game in 5 Wks and off a SNF road game.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

JAX is off LW’s MNF win vs BAL and this will be the 3rd straight defense Gabbert has faced ranked 3rd or better. Combined with the fact they’ve started 6 different OL’s it’s not a surprise the Jags have only scored 6 offensive TD’s TY. HOU took out their frustrations from B2B losses mauling TEN and finishing with a 518-148 yd edge. Foster (115, 4.6) and Tate (104, 6.9) both topped 100 yds allowing QB Schaub to play pitch and catch (296 yds 78%, 12.9 ypa) and they may also get the return of WR Johnson here. The Texans D doesn’t get the credit they deserve but already this year they’ve held IND, PIT, TEN and OAK to season lows and now face a one dimensional offense that ranks #32 in yards and 31st in points.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

This is the 3rd meeting in 4 years with the home team logging a 2-0 mark with a 23-9 avg score. Falcons HC Smith noted after their game that the Panthers run lots of plays from the Auburn playbook on 1st and 2nd Dn with Newton running the ball option style (tied NFL record w/ 7 rush TD by rookie QB LW). This draws the Safety down to the box giving Smith (39 rec 21.0) single coverage on 3rd Dns in NFL style plays. Due to injuries and youth the Panthers started sprinkling in 3-4 fronts to try and boost their #29 run defense (133 ypg 4.7). CAR was up 30-13 mid-4Q LW with a 404-257 yd edge before letting up vs WAS. CAR has won the yardage battle in 6 of 7 games TY and get a MIN team that has been outgained 378-271 on the road TY. MIN was without its top 2 CB’s and starting Ctr LW with OG Herrera (knee) and WR Harvin (ribs) getting dinged up. Minus his 72 yd pass to start the game, Ponder had 147 yds (39%) with a 2-2 ratio in his 1st game. Now he has to face a CAR team fully believing in its QB and new coaching staff on the road and I’ll take the Panthers by a TD.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

This is the 4th meeting in 5 years. STL has faced 3 top 10 defenses in the L4W and get a bit of a break here at home with NO off the SNF game with a rematch vs TB at home on deck. The Saints stat edges go beyond the fact they have the #2 offense, #20 defense (-7 TO’s) vs STL’s #28 and #30 units (-2 TO’s). This is a matchup that pits Saints who have scored 18 offensive TD’s vs the Rams who have just 5 (2 rush, 3 pass) at this point. STL made the smart move vs DAL resting Bradford (ankle sprain), starting AJ Feeley (196 yds 61% 0-1) vs the NFL’s #7 pass rush. Getting LY’s NFL leader in rec yards with WR Lloyd (74 rec 12.3 LW) was a good move as it gives the offense a desperately needed weapon that has a firm grasp of the system. There isn’t a lot to like about how STL has played TY especially as they gave up 253 yds rushing (10.1) to rookie RB Murray LW and are allowing 185 ypg (5.5) TY. I’ll call for NO by 9.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

The Ravens are just 3-6 after a MNF game with a 20-19 avg score. This is the 5th straight foe BAL gets that has been “softened up” by the physical defenses of Giants, Raiders or Steelers. ARZ has long been known as “Steelers West” which plays the Ravens advantage here as they come in knowing some tendencies. Vs a much tougher sked BAL has outgained foes by 81 ypg (#7) (+5 TO’s) vs ARZ who has been outgained by 50 ypg (#24) (-5 TO’s). ARZ has 2 major matchup issues here with the #14 rush defense that has given up 155 ypg (4.6) on the road TY. Ray Rice accounted for 38.1% of the offense prior to JAX and has avg’d 90 ypg rushing (4.7) in 19 career rushing games at M&T Stadium. ARZ is also 25th in sks allowed TY with 18 while BAL is 14th in sacks by with 15. Complicating matters for ARZ’s #17 offense is that RB Wells (knee sprain) is likely out here. BAL’s #8 pass defense is also only giving up 210 ypg (54%) with a 4-6 ratio and #1 DC CB Jimmy Smith was slated to return vs JAX. I’ll take the deeper, more physical home team vs a travelling NFC West team.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

The Giants needed the bye week to get healthy and regroup. RG Snee, Ctr Baas, RB Jacobs, DE’s Tuck and Umenyiora are all expected to be as close to 100%. This is a very attractive matchup for Manning who is having a solid year with 296 ypg (64%) with an 11-5 ratio (9.1 ypa #3 prior to LW) vs the #22 pass defense giving up 258 ypg (60%) with a 12-2 ratio TY. The Dolphins who have only scored 7 offensive TD’s TY but won’t be intimidated by the venue as they just faced the Jets 2 Wks ago here on MNF. MIA played well for the 1st 55 minutes of “Tebow’s homecoming game” but imploded in the final 5:23 giving up 80 and 56 yd drives for TD’s with a successful onside kick they knew was coming. I think the Dolphins keep it close but in the end the Giants get the win.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

Toronto - The Bills are 0-3 in Toronto but due to their success TY this will be the 1st time they have a true home field edge here. BUF definitely needed the bye week due to injuries as they will get OLB Kelsay and slot WR Jones back here. BUF isn’t expected to get their best player on defense in NT Kyle Williams (foot) back and the status of both LT Bell and RT Pears are very questionable here. This is a problem as the Redskins OLB tandem of Orakpo/Kerrigan (6.5 sks combined) have been very good for the #1 sack defense. BUF has played a much tougher sked than WAS TY with the #10 and #31 units (+10 TO’s) vs WAS #15 and #12 units (-6 TO’s). WAS struggled LW in Becks 1st start since 2007 with an OL without its starting LT and LG. Beck’s numbers are misleading as without garbage time stats (after down 30-13) he had 174 yds (26%) when CAR cared. WAS also lost #1 WR Moss (25 rec 12.0) to a brkn hand and #1 RB Hightower (321 yds 3.8) to a knee injury as both combined equal 34% of the WAS offense. I’ll call for BUF by a TD.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

Once the NFL’s worst road team, the Lions 5-0 on the road. They have clear stat edges with the #14 and #10 units (+10 TO’s) vs the Broncos #25 and #21 units (-6 TO’s) here. Tebow helped DEN notch its 400th franchise win despite being awful for 55 min of LW’s game. 11 of DEN’s 15 drives went for 25 yds or less and Tebow was 4 for 14 with 40 yds prior to the comeback drives. The Broncos had been outgained in 5 straight games prior to LW. Their #18 pass defense is giving up 248 ypg (68%) with a 11-3 ratio and the team is 29th scoring defense with 25.8 ppg allowed. DET comes in off its 2nd straight loss as not having RB Best (concussion) let the Falcons flood coverage as Stafford was held to 183 yds (47%) 1-0 and he’s been held to 5.9 and 5.7 ypa the L2 games. DET has given up 141 yds (9.4) and 122 yds (4.5) to power rushing RB’s the L2W but RB McGahee (brkn hand) isn’t one and his status is unknown here. DET QB Stafford inj’d his foot vs ATL last week and his status is unknown. I’ll call for DEN to pull the upset as Tebow’s unconventional style will take time to get used to by D’s.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

Brady has dominated this series winning 6 of 7 with a 4-1 mark at Heinz Field. This includes a 39-26 victory on SNF LY. NE had a 23-3 lead entering the 4Q before PIT tallied 281 yds and 16 pts. In his 6 regular season meetings vs PIT Brady has avg’d 316 ypg (68%) with a 14-3 ratio. NE is 11-1 vs a top 10 defense with Brady at the helm and 8-0 SU/6-2 ATS off a bye. Belichick took a page from Mike Shanahan who employed 2 TE sets to neutralize his 3-4 defenses in the past. 2 TE’s force 3-4 defenses to balance their front and making it easier for Brady to decipher blitz packages. They also give him a great safety outlet as 56 of his 160 completions have been to Hernandez/Gronkowski along with 8 of his 16 pass TD’s. PIT is in a tough spot off a cross country trip to ARZ and have their rematch vs BAL on deck. Yes the Steelers have a 407-226 yd edge at home that’s been vs SEA coming cross country, TEN who’s only quality win was vs a flat BAL team in Wk 2 and JAX with Gabbert at the helm. PIT’s OL gets a break vs the #28 pass rush on the #32 defense. This one is a flip of the coin and because of past history I'll take the Pats.

Rushing

Passing

Points

TO’s

ST

The 49ers come out of the bye with a clear lead in the NFC West. Both teams came into the season with rookie HC’s and have similar stat rankings with SF being 27th and 11th (+8 TO’s) while CLE owns the #23 and #4 units (+2 TO’s). The advantage that Harbaugh has enjoyed is that he kept the core of the defense and its scheme intact which is 7th in the NFL with 17 sacks. SF is 9-3 at home with Smith at the helm who has avg’d 182 ypg (63%) with a 8-2 ratio. Gore has come on strong in the L3 games avg 131 ypg rush (7.9) and now takes on the #19 rush defense of the Browns. This is CLE’s 2nd West Coast trip in 3 Wks after only managing 6 pts at home vs SEA who were coming off a bye. Their 3 wins have been vs teams a combined 2-16 record and McCoy has been held to 215 yds or less in 5 of 6 games and #1 WR Massaquoi/#1 TE Watson to head injuries LW. While CLE had a 298-137 yd edge 7 of their 1st 11 drives started on their 20 or worse & SF has elite special teams this year. The 49ers continue to roll.